Xi Jinping continues to dominate the Chinese Party-state system, based on an assessment of evidence from spring and summer 2025. Despite high-level purges, unusual military reshuffles, and persistent rumors of elite dissatisfaction, there is no visible indication that Xi’s personal authority has meaningfully eroded.
Signs of rebalancing within the military-security apparatus add nuance to this assessment. Structural purges, which have halved the CMC’s size, likely constitute a systematic rebalancing of Xi’s patronage networks. While these actions do not yet amount to an overt power shift, they signal that the outwardly monolithic military-security apparatus Xi once relied upon is now visibly fractured and contested, even as he retains formal authority.
The possibility of fragmentation and realignment within the elite can no longer be ruled out, though no fixed timetable for such a transition exists. As Xi enters what is effectively the indefinite phase of his tenure, Party elites will increasingly maneuver around the unresolved question of succession. For now, Xi appears capable of dictating terms, but as time goes on, the system will only reduce his power to do so.
Terminal Authority: Assessing the CCP’s Emerging Crisis of Political Succession – Jamestown
