From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Gaza; Georgia; India-Pakistan; Kazakhstan; Russia; Southeast Asia-China-US; Sudan; Syria; Ukraine; Ukraine-US-NATO; US-South Korea; US Tariffs
Gaza
(UN News) Nearly 900 desperate and hungry Gazans have been killed in recent weeks trying to fetch food, with most deaths linked to private aid hubs run by the so-called Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the UN human rights office, OHCHR, said on Tuesday. “As of 13 July, we have recorded 875 people killed in Gaza while trying to get food; 674 of them were killed in the vicinity of GHF sites,” said Thameen Al-Kheetan, OHCHR spokesperson, referencing the US-Israeli run private organization which has bypassed regular humanitarian operations. The remaining 201 victims were killed while seeking food “on the routes of aid convoys or near aid convoys” run by the UN or UN-partners still operating in the war-shattered enclave, Mr. Al-Kheetan told journalists in Geneva. Killings linked to the controversial US and Israeli-backed aid hubs began shortly after they started operating in southern Gaza on 27 May, bypassing the UN and other established NGOs. The latest deadly incident happened at around 9am on Monday 14 July, when reports indicated that the Israeli military shelled and fired towards Palestinians seeking food at the GHF site in As Shakoush area, northwestern Rafah. According to OHCHR, two Palestinians were killed and at least nine others were injured. Some of the casualties were transported to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) hospital in Rafah. On Saturday medics there received more than 130 patients, the “overwhelming majority” suffering from gunshot wounds and “all responsive individuals” reporting they were attempting to access food distribution sites. – Gaza: 875 people confirmed dead trying to source food in recent weeks | UN News
Georgia
(Zaal Anjaparidze – The Jamestown Foundation) Daily youth-led protests against the Georgian Dream government continue on Tbilisi’s Rustaveli Avenue, with participants calling for new elections, the release of detained protesters, and, in some cases, full-on revolution. The lack of substantive results from the demonstrations, as well as an inability for the opposition to coalesce and rally around the protesters, may cause some fatigue and frustration among the oppositional segment of the population. Georgian Dream officials have capitalized on these sentiments as well as Western support of the demonstrators to delegitimize the protests and brush them off as a Western-supported operation aimed at regime change. The inability of newer political parties to cooperate fully with traditional opposition parties has hurt the protesters’ ability to consolidate widespread public support, foster real change, and the lack of a central charismatic leader for the movement could doom the protests. – Ongoing Civil Protests in Georgia Hope to Create New Political Reality – Jamestown
India – Pakistan
(Abdul Sayed – The Jamestown Foundation) In the aftermath of the Indian air strikes on Pakistan on May 6, militant groups active in and around Pakistan took a variety of approaches to responding to the brief escalation within their respective propaganda apparatuses. Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) initially stood behind the Pakistani state against India—an unusual position for the group—before returning to its historical antagonism of the Pakistani military after it was clear that the conflict was not escalating further. The bulk of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) accused the Pakistani military of having stage-managed the entire exchange with India as a way to attack its bases without risking the potential backlash that could come from having conducted said attacks itself. Smaller factions within the Pakistani Taliban remained mostly silent, either because they concur that the whole affair was a farce or out of fear that rallying behind the state could lead to increased sympathy for the military. The Afghan Taliban officially stayed out of the conflict, declaring neutrality. While some elements within the group suggested that what had occurred between Pakistan and India was comeuppance for Pakistan’s own strikes against TTP strongholds in Afghanistan in the past, the bulk of the Afghan Taliban’s opinion appears to have been that staying out of the diplomatic row was the best course of action. As might be expected, Islamic State–Khorasan Province condemned both Pakistan and India as states run by infidels but focused most of their propaganda toward deriding the Afghan Taliban’s call for peace and empathy on both sides. – Jihadist Narratives in the Aftermath of India’s Airstrikes on Pakistan – Jamestown
Kazakhstan
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Kazakhstan has selected Russia’s Rosatom to construct its first post-Soviet nuclear power plant (NPP), despite earlier indications that China’s CNNC would win the bid. A second plant may still be awarded to CNNC. Environmental risks, particularly regarding Kazakhstan’s nuclear legacy, the unresolved issue of the disposal of nuclear waste, and water scarcity, have sparked public opposition. Rosatom’s problematic record in building a NPP in Belarus, which included accidents, a lack of transparency, and long delays, and the effects of potential Western sanctions on Rosatom, threaten plans for the construction of the plant. – Rosatom to Build Kazakhstan’s First Nuclear Power Plant (Part One) – Jamestown
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Serious crime has risen to its highest level since 2010 in Russia because of the influx of weapons from Moscow’s war against Ukraine, as well as the Kremlin’s increased focus on prosecuting corruption. The influx of weapons into Russia, brought into the country by returning veterans or sold by Russian army personnel in Ukraine into the Russian black market, has made instances of violence more difficult for authorities to ignore. The situation in the North Caucasus is especially concerning to Moscow. Officials have long played down ethnic clashes, but worsening violence is forcing them to acknowledge the seriousness of ethnic tensions in the region. – Russia’s Soaring Serious Crime Rate Harbinger of Conflict in North Caucasus – Jamestown
Southeast Asia – China – US
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump has vowed to enlist a wide range of partner countries to isolate China by reducing their dependence on Chinese exports, altering their supply chains to operate with Chinese influence in absentia, and placing their own tariffs on Chinese-made goods. Most recently, the president has also begun pressuring these partners to put an end to the practice of transshipment, whereby Chinese factories ship fully made goods or parts to an intermediate destination before exporting them to the United States to avoid tariffs. Trump has pushed this idea of isolation with Europe, Northeast Asia, and other parts of the world. But the White House has most aggressively promoted this strategy in Southeast Asia, where a sizable amount of transshipment has occurred in recent years, in some part because the United States encouraged companies to move operations out of China and into other countries. – Will Southeast Asia Help Trump Build a Wall Against Chinese Exports? | Council on Foreign Relations
Sudan
(UN News) Intensifying clashes in Sudan’s Kordofan region between rival militaries have killed hundreds and wounded many more in recent days, warned the UN humanitarian affairs office (OCHA) on Tuesday. Amid ongoing communication disruptions in the area, confirming the exact civilian death toll remains difficult, but reports indicate that at least 300 people – including children and pregnant women – were killed in attacks on villages in Bara locality, North Kordofan State, between 10 and 13 July. During the same period, a series of attacks – including an air strike on a school sheltering displaced families – reportedly killed more than 20 people, in the villages of Al Fula and Abu Zabad in West Kordofan State. OCHA is also alarmed by reports of renewed shelling in Al Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan State, “deepening fears and insecurity among civilians,” the humanitarian coordination agency reported. – Scores killed in Sudan’s Kordofan region as fighting intensifies | UN News
Syria
(UN News) Inter-ethnic violence in Syria’s predominantly Druze city of Sweida has been met with government intervention, Israeli airstrikes – and on Tuesday, a reported ceasefire announcement by Syria’s defence minister. On Sunday, violence erupted between Sunni Bedouin tribal fighters and Druze militias in Sweida, two days after a Druze merchant was abducted on the highway to Damascus. The casualty figures are unclear according to local reports, but the death toll is at least 30, and hundreds have been injured. As violent unrest continued Monday, interim government security forces were deployed to restore order, which reportedly led to clashes with local armed militia. On the same day, Israeli forces struck tanks under the control of Syrian forces in defence of the Druze, whom it considers a loyal minority at home and in the occupied Golan area, according to news reports. Shortly after forces of the caretaker government in Damascus arrived in Sweida on Tuesday, Syria’s defence chief announced a ceasefire. Tensions have historically been high between minority groups in the city since Islamist rebels toppled former president Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December and a new caretaker government was installed which is gaining increasing international recognition. – UN urges de-escalation, protection of civilians as conflict roils Syria | UN News
Ukraine
(UN News) Relentless missile and drone strikes by Russian forces have killed and injured hundreds of civilians in Ukraine this month, continuing a devastating pattern of attacks far from the frontlines. According to the UN human rights office, OHCHR, at least 139 civilians have been killed and 791 injured so far in July alone. “The devastating physical and psychological impact on civilians of repeated attacks in this and other conflicts cannot be captured by numbers alone,” said OHCHR spokesperson Liz Throssell on Tuesday. – Ukraine: Civilians under fire in record numbers as attacks surge | UN News
Ukraine – US – NATO
(Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park – Center for Strategic & International Studies – 15 July 2025) Under the Trump administration, military aid to Ukraine has been on and off, then partially on, then on again, and then increased further. As of Tuesday, July 15, this pattern characterized the administration’s approach to Ukraine policy. The resumption of aid on July 7 was good news for Ukraine, and yesterday’s announcement of a U.S.-NATO agreement for additional weapons is even better. These changes take place amid intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, while the Russian summer ground offensive advanced, albeit slowly and at high human and material costs. Yet, much is unknown about the new policy, and the details will affect the speed of weapons delivery, the effectiveness of the deliveries, and the policy’s political acceptability. Further, the concerns that prompted the second aid pause—dwindling U.S. stockpiles and competing military needs—remain. – Trump Sends Weapons to Ukraine: By the Numbers
US – South Korea
(Navin Girishankar – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Shifting timetables for lifting the pause on Liberation Day tariffs and on-again, off-again tariff announcements have become hallmarks of the Trump administration’s trade strategy. For longstanding allies with export-oriented economies integrated with both the United States and China, the stakes are exceedingly high. South Korea stands out in this regard: It has run a bilateral merchandise surplus with the United States for 27 consecutive years while benefiting from a defense umbrella that the Trump administration views as overly generous. These two facts put the Republic of Korea (ROK) squarely in the sights of Washington’s rebalancing campaign. While the jury is still out on the efficacy of this campaign, the United States has demonstrated its willingness to impose—and ratchet up—an array of tariffs to force economic concessions such as increasing investment in U.S. manufacturing or decoupling from China, as well as noneconomic concessions such as increasing defense expenditures. – How AI Cooperation Can Save the U.S.-ROK Trade Talks
US Tariffs
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Wall Street keeps staking multibillion-dollar bets that US President Donald Trump doesn’t mean what he threatens when it comes to tariffs. That’s risky business, for the simple reason that most investors don’t seem to understand Trump’s thinking. One who does seem to appreciate the US president’s seriousness is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said in an interview on Tuesday with Bloomberg that an “obsessive focus on the market isn’t right.” Trump, he explained, “views this as a generational opportunity to reset trade in a fair and sound manner for the American people.”. Josh Lipsky, the Atlantic Council chair for international economics, rightly calls this gap between the administration and investors “a dangerous disconnect.” It’s prompting Wall Street to keep buying stocks and Trump to keep threatening more tariffs—neither believing there’s ultimately any price to pay. – Beware the ‘dangerous disconnect’ between Trump and the markets on tariffs – Atlantic Council
