From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Armenia; China-Israel-Iran; China-Taiwan; Darfur; Europe; Gaza; Greece; Poland-ukraine; Russia-Ukraine; United Nations
Armenia
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation) The Armenian government allegedly foiled an attempted coup involving two prominent archbishops and several nationalists. The opposition, Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II, and the Armenian Apostolic Church deny the allegations. The announcement comes as tensions between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the church have boiled over, with the premier seeking to remove Karekin II as head of the church. Yerevan’s allegations have been used to justify the arrest of Samvel Karapetyan, a prominent Russian-Armenian businessman, and several opposition-aligned parliamentarians. The government has also moved to nationalize Karapetyan’s Electric Networks of Armenia. Economists and civil society groups warn that the government’s actions to combat what it views as hybrid threats emanating from Moscow could further damage the investment climate and erode public confidence in the democratic system. The recent turmoil comes as the June 2026 elections loom, and Pashinyan will likely rationalize the conflict with the church and opposition as a means of stripping Russia of key assets in the country. – Alleged Coup Exacerbates Armenia’s Political Crisis – Jamestown
China – Israel – Iran
(John Calabrese – Middle East Institute) As missiles rained down on Iranian nuclear sites and the specter of regional escalation loomed large, China’s response underscored its ambition to shape global affairs while simultaneously exposing the constraints of that ambition. This conflict became a revealing stress test for Beijing’s Middle East strategy, its role in global diplomacy, and the coherence of what some have described as an emergent “Axis of Upheaval” between China, Russia, and Iran. At a surface level, China’s response was swift and aligned with its broader foreign policy posture. It issued strong condemnations of Israel’s preemptive strikes, called for an immediate cease-fire, and launched a flurry of diplomatic activity at the United Nations. Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s denunciation of Israeli aggression as a violation of international law and President Xi Jinping’s subsequent calls for de-escalation framed China as a responsible power defending global stability. – The 12-day Israel-Iran war: China’s response and its implications | Middle East Institute
China – Taiwan
(Soufan Center) On July 9, Taiwan launched its annual “Han Guang” military exercises, which for the first time formally integrated grey zone tactics as a main focus and opener alongside conventional defense scenarios.The People’s Republic of China’s grey zone tactics have increased in scope, prevalence, and have become more efficient at targeting specific actors, institutions, or vulnerabilities in the past decade. While the Chinese Communist Party continues to stress “peaceful reunification,” its sustained use of grey zone tactics — difficult to counter due to their ambiguity and exploitation of systemic vulnerabilities — could shape conditions favorable to a future military invasion. As democracies continue to struggle with how to effectively respond to grey zone tactics, states like Russia and China are likely to continue exploiting existing vulnerabilities, seeking to degrade adversaries but avoid direct military confrontation. – Beijing’s Grey Zone Tactics Present a Growing Threat to Taiwan – The Soufan Center
Darfur
(UN News) Systematic rape and sexual violence are being used as weapons of war in Darfur, the International Criminal Court (ICC) warned on Thursday, as part of a widening investigation into what its Deputy Prosecutor said are escalating atrocities against civilians in the conflict-ridden region. Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan told ambassadors in the UN Security Council that the ICC has “reasonable grounds to believe” that both war crimes and crimes against humanity are being committed in region, where a deepening conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has plunged the region into a humanitarian disaster. Among the most disturbing patterns, she said, is the targeted use of sexual violence, including rape, abduction, and gender-based assaults – a campaign often directed at women and girls from specific ethnic communities. – International Criminal Court: War crimes, systematic sexual violence ongoing in Darfur | UN News
Europe
(Sona Muzikarova – Atlantic Council) For years, Europe’s democratic cohesion has depended on the relative predictability of its central and eastern states—Poland as the dependable heavyweight, Czechia as the technocratic moderate, and Romania as the reformist work in progress. But political foundations are now shifting. A trend that had seemed to be confined to two illiberal outliers—Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakia under Prime Minister Robert Fico—is growing into a wider arc of populist, right-wing advance in the region and across the continent. Recent European electoral results underscore the gravity of this shift. In a tight presidential race in July, Poland swung back to the conservative right, with the Law and Justice (PiS)–backed candidate Karol Nawrocki winning the presidency. Romania avoided a far-right presidency only narrowly in May. And in Czechia, populists are tightening their grip ahead of October’s parliamentary elections. Moreover, this pattern extends beyond Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), as recent elections in Germany and Portugal demonstrate. As Europe’s political center frays and once-marginal parties reshape national agendas, the continent’s ability to govern effectively is at risk at a moment when external pressures demand strategic coherence. At home, populist victories threaten the European Union’s (EU’s) social cohesion and democratic values, including the rule of law. Internationally, far-right gains threaten Europe’s solidarity with Ukraine as it fights for its survival. Populist advances also risk hindering the military buildup necessary to deter mounting security threats to the continent should the United States disengage more from European affairs. – Populist gains are threatening Europe’s strategic coherence. Here’s how the EU can fight back. – Atlantic Council
Gaza
(UN News) The head of the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has voiced deep dismay over the “unconscionable” killing of children during an aid distribution in the central Gaza Strip on Thursday. Catherine Russell said she was appalled by the reported killing of 15 Palestinians, including nine children and four women, who were waiting in line for nutritional supplements provided by Project Hope, a UNICEF partner organization. The incident occurred in Deir Al-Balah. An additional 30 people were injured, including 19 children. News reports indicate that it resulted from an Israel strike. – UNICEF deplores ‘unconscionable’ killing of families lining up for aid in Gaza | UN News
Greece
(UN News) The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) on Thursday raised alarm over Greece’s decision to suspend the submission of asylum applications from people arriving by sea from North Africa, warning it risks breaching international law and undermining the country’s longstanding commitment to protecting those fleeing conflict and persecution. The move, currently being debated in the Greek Parliament, would halt asylum registration for three months and allow for the return of new arrivals without assessing their claims. It follows a recent rise in landings on the southern islands of Gavdos and Crete. While acknowledging the strain of managing new arrivals, UNHCR said such measures must remain within the boundaries of international and European law. “States have the right to manage borders and address irregular migration,” the agency said in a statement. “Controlling a State’s borders, however, must be in line with international and European law.” – UN voices concern over Greece’s suspension of asylum applications | UN News
Poland – Ukraine
(Janusz Bugajski – The Jamestown Foundation) The election of Karol Nawrocki as Poland’s new president has stirred fears that Warsaw will be less supportive of Ukraine, as Nawrocki does not back Ukraine’s early membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or the European Union. Polish-Ukrainian relations at the state level remain firm, even though periodic problems surface over such questions as agricultural exports or historical disputes. Public opinion in both countries has evolved, with a growing number of Poles feeling that aid to Ukrainian refugees should not come at a cost to Polish families, while Ukrainians believe that they are also defending Poland’s security and Kyiv should not be subject to additional pressures. – Polish-Ukrainian Relations Questioned in the Wake of Poland’s Presidential Elections – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Violent attacks on people and property in the Russian regions bordering Ukraine are threatening Moscow’s control there. The attackers, many of whom are Russian veterans with criminal pasts, are better armed and sometimes outnumber the local police. These veterans are often joined by others who have obtained weapons meant for the war against Ukraine. Some Russians who live near Ukraine have lost confidence in the willingness and ability of the police to protect them and are increasingly taking matters into their own hands. The violence in Russian regions bordering Ukraine is likely a bellwether of what will occur across Russia when the rest of those fighting against Ukraine return home. – Moscow Losing Out to Criminals in Russian Regions Along Ukrainian Border – Jamestown
(UN News) UN agencies on Thursday warned of devastating recent attacks across Ukraine due to Russian strikes, record civilian casualties recorded last month – and growing deprivation facing children under fire across the country. Russian forces launched an attack overnight focused on Kyiv, deploying 397 Shahed unmanned attack and decoy drones, along with 18 high-powered missiles, killing two and injuring at least 16, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU). UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric noted during his daily briefing in New York that four Kyiv districts were hit, damaging residential buildings, a clinic and a TV station, while an outpatient clinic was destroyed during the bombardment. Mr. Dujarric also relayed reports from local authorities of recent attacks in other regions which left more than nine dead and at least ten civilians injured. – UN warns of record civilian casualties in Ukraine | UN News
United Nations
(UN News) Top UN human rights officials have voiced serious concern over the imposition of sanctions by the United States targeting Francesca Albanese, a UN-appointed independent expert on the Occupied Palestinian Territory. They’re calling for the decision to be reversed, warning it could undermine the wider international human rights system. The sanctions were announced by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday under a Presidential Executive Order. Mr. Rubio alleged that Ms. Albanese had “directly engaged with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in efforts to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute nationals of the United States or Israel, without the consent of those two countries,” which he called a “gross infringement” on national sovereignty. The US and Israel are not parties to the Rome Statute, the international treaty that established the ICC. – UN calls for reversal of US sanctions on Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese | UN News
