In a significant shift in the South Caucasus region, tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia have escalated sharply — marked by tit-for-tat public arrests in both countries — following the deaths of two ethnic Azeri brothers while in Russian custody. By escalating this dispute, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has signaled Baku’s growing confidence and strategic relevance on the global stage while positioning himself as a leader willing to challenge Moscow. This year marked a milestone, as Baku and Yerevan finalized the text of a new peace agreement, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan became the first Armenian head of government to make an official diplomatic visit to Türkiye in the post-Soviet era. Türkiye is emerging as the dominant external actor in the South Caucasus, as evidenced by its leadership in peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia — effectively supplanting Russia in a role it once firmly held.
Baku-Moscow Tensions Signal Türkiye’s Rise in the South Caucasus – The Soufan Center
