Whether across the Taiwan Strait, on the Korean Peninsula, or in the East China Sea, the region is drifting toward a historical inflection point. As geopolitical tensions mount in Northeast Asia, strategic planners tend to look to contemporary deterrence theory and alliance politics. But valuable lessons lie in a more distant chapter: the rise and eventual breakdown of the Concert of Europe. This early 19th-century security system, devised after the Napoleonic Wars, preserved peace among rival great powers for decades, until it faltered amid mistrust and miscalculation, culminating in the Crimean War (1853–1856). Though the Concert would survive on paper until 1914, the Crimean War dealt a lasting blow to its credibility, demonstrating how even sophisticated diplomatic frameworks can collapse if their underlying assumptions erode. As the Indo-Pacific confronts its own crises – from US–China rivalry to North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship – the story of the Crimean breakdown offers sobering parallels and enduring strategic lessons.
Why Northeast Asia risks repeating Europe’s 19th-century mistakes | Lowy Institute
