From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia; Azerbaijan-Middle Corridor; Chechnya; Cuba-China; Georgia-European Union; India-Pakistan; Iran-Europe; Russia; Somalia-US; Ukraine; Ukraine-Russia-Global Food Security; Vatican
Australia
(Peter J. Dean – Atlantic Council) It’s been five months since US President Donald Trump was elected to a second term, but it felt at times as if he was a candidate in Australia’s election on May 3, as well. During the campaign, Trump cast a long shadow over both the progressive Labor Party Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and conservative Liberal-National Coalition Opposition leader Peter Dutton. – What will Labor’s landslide mean for Australia’s foreign policy? – Atlantic Council
Azerbaijan-Middle Corridor
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijan is responding to increased trade through the Middle Corridor with international partnerships and ambitious reforms of its railway and port systems, highlighting Baku’s desire to become a critical node in global trade. Reforms such as standardized cargo procedures, digital customs systems, and regional e-services are streamlining transit operations at the Port of Baku, improving coordination across borders, and enhancing the Middle Corridor’s competitiveness in global logistics. The Port of Baku leads regional green initiatives, but threats/ from declining water levels in the Caspian Sea and climate change pose long-term risks to port infrastructure and regional transport continuity. – The Port of Baku Facilitates Trans-Eurasian Commerce (Part Two) – Jamestown
Chechnya
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Ramzan Kadyrov declared this week that he wants to retire from his position as head of the Chechen Republic but acknowledged that only Russian President Vladimir Putin could release him. Putin agreed to meet with him and appears to have turned down his request. Putin’s approval of Kadyrov’s request the day before Victory Day (May 9) would have marred the celebration and put at even greater risk the combination of policies Kadyrov has long pursued. Such a shift would spark a power struggle in Chechnya itself that would involve not only the Kremlin but the entire North Caucasus and trigger a larger conflict in the region than any since the second post-Soviet Chechen war through which Putin rose to power in 2000. Putin will almost certainly be forced to later accept Kadyrov’s resignation, which will induce uncertainty surrounding his own position as President of Russia. – Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov Requests Resignation – Jamestown
Cuba – China
(Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr. – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Recent commercial satellite imagery shows new construction underway at a known Cuban signals intelligence (SIGINT) site near Havana, long rumored to have ties to China. The addition of what appears to be a circularly disposed antenna array (CDAA) at Bejucal would expand the site’s capabilities to spy on the United States and other countries in the region. Satellite imagery of another key Cuban site shows a halt in construction, raising new questions about the scope and direction of Cuba’s SIGINT efforts—and their possible connection to China. – At the Doorstep: A Snapshot of New Activity at Cuban Spy Sites
Georgia – European Union
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia may soon lose its visa-free travel to the European Union due to the country’s democratic backsliding, triggering widespread domestic and diplomatic reactions. Georgian opposition leaders support maintaining visa-free travel for citizens while urging the European Union to impose direct sanctions on the ruling Georgian Dream leadership, whom they blame for authoritarian reforms and damaging EU-Georgia relations. Georgian Dream’s rhetoric claiming that the European Union is using visa-free travel as blackmail to undermine Georgian sovereignty highlights the regime’s willingness to fully isolate Georgia from the West. – Georgians May Lose Visa-Free Travel to the European Union – Jamestown
India – Pakistan
(Manjari Chatterjee Mille – Council on Foreign Relations) India’s military strikes across Pakistan today were not surprising. A response was widely expected following the killing of twenty-six tourists in an April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir claimed by a terrorist group based in Pakistan. The government of Narendra Modi was under intense pressure from Indian media and citizens to respond. But the military exchange and the level of rhetoric on both sides are different this time. This raises concerns that the tensions could move beyond the last major escalation in 2019, which followed the bombing of a bus full of Indian paramilitary soldiers in Pulwama, Kashmir. – On India-Pakistan Conflict, The United States Needs to Tread Carefully | Council on Foreign Relations
Iran – Europe
(Soufan Center) The threat of Iranian state-sponsored illicit activities in Europe is heightened, driven by the regime’s interest in silencing opposition, projecting power, and countering perceived adversaries. The large-scale counterterrorism and counterthreat operations in the UK on Sunday, resulting in the arrest of multiple Iranian nationals suspected of acting on behalf of Tehran, underscore the immediacy and severity of the threat. Tehran employs a multipronged strategy utilizing its state institutions as well as local criminal proxies to execute its operations in Europe and maintain plausible deniability. Iranian state-sponsored activities in Europe come at a time of geopolitical uncertainty, with Tehran’s regional proxies battered and nuclear talks with the U.S. proceeding, albeit haltingly. – Threading a Precarious Geopolitical Posture, Iran Seeks to Wreak Havoc in Europe – The Soufan Center
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) For more than six years, Bashkortostan has been the site of larger and more prolonged protests and greater repression than any other region of the Russian Federation, especially since Russian President Vladimir Putin began his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The protests and repression have attracted little notice because the Bashkir actions have been primarily about defending the environment rather than protesting against Kremlin policies and because ethnic Russians outnumber the Bashkirs in their own republic. Kremlin-ordered repression is working against Moscow because, while it has succeeded in blocking protests, it has made heroes of Bashkir leaders and forced Moscow to explore new means of fighting environmentalism lest that become politicized. – Environmental Protests in Bashkortostan Emerging as Threat to Moscow – Jamestown
Somalia – US
(Soufan Center) Even as U.S. President Donald Trump campaigned on extricating the United States from so-called “forever wars,” months into his second stint in the White House, Trump has ordered his national security brain trust to map out contingency plans for kinetic strikes in both Somalia and Yemen. More hawkish elements of Trump’s cabinet want to continue taking the fight to al-Shabaab and Islamic State Somalia, while others argue that Washington needs to remain focused on China and that counterterrorism is a distraction that siphons off resources needed for great power competition. Given the Somali government’s inability to assume responsibility for its own security, and concerns that Somali forces have not been standing their ground to fight against al-Shabaab, there are clear parallels to Afghanistan in the lead up to August 2021. Al-Shabaab continues to diversify its funding portfolio while also demonstrating pragmatism in the alliances and partnerships it has developed with other transnational terrorist groups, including Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and the Houthis in Yemen. – Continued U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia Demonstrate Relentless Nature of the Threat – The Soufan Center
Ukraine
(Elena Davlikanova – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin has shifted May 9 Victory Day celebrations from honoring the sacrifices of Soviet troops in World War II to a tool for justifying Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moscow’s attempts to monopolize “victory” over the Nazis ring hollow in Ukraine, whose own people fought and died in the war, and whose postwar history was marked not by liberation but by renewed Soviet oppression. Even 80 years after the end of World War II, the preservation of freedom remains a defining struggle for Ukraine. – Ukrainians Reject Russia’s Distortion of 80th Anniversary of World War II – Jamestown
Ukraine – Russia – Global Food Security
(Caitlin Welsh, Emma Dodd, Joseph Glauber – Center for Strategic & International Studies) More than three years following the launch of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s agriculture sector remains a primary target of Russia’s assaults. In attacking Ukraine’s agriculture sector, Russia seeks to diminish a major source of Ukraine’s revenue, undercut European support for Ukraine, and undermine Ukraine’s position as a global food exporter. At the same time, Russia has capitalized on Ukraine’s agricultural losses and the related increase in global food insecurity by increasing exports of its own grain to food-insecure countries. Proposed ceasefire plans would have significant implications for Ukraine’s and Russia’s agriculture sectors. As talk of a ceasefire continues, what is at stake for Ukraine’s agriculture sector, Russia’s agriculture sector, and global food security? – Ceasefire Talks: What’s at Stake for Ukraine’s Agriculture Sector and Global Food Security?
Vatican
(Phil McCausland – Council on Foreign Relations) Cardinals from across the world were sequestered in the Vatican on Wednesday morning in preparation of selecting the next pope, who will lead the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. The next head of the church will be a powerful voice at a time of increased international conflict and polarization. – Why the Papal Conclave Matters to the Globe | Council on Foreign Relations
