From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan; Belarus; Canada; Global Economy; India-Pakistan; US; US-Iran
Azerbaijan – Kazakhstan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have announced they will hold joint naval exercises in the northern portion of the Caspian Sea near Russia’s coastline to prepare for any asymmetrical threat. While this announcement was overshadowed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ratification of a cooperation accord with Iran, it may prove as important because it casts doubt on Moscow’s ability to expand its North-South corridor to Iran and the Indian Ocean. This direct challenge to Moscow’s influence in the region is all the greater because Türkiye, which has been helping Azerbaijan expand its navy for years, says that it will do the same for Kazakhstan, which already has more ships on the Caspian than any other littoral state. – Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan Plan Joint Naval Maneuvers in Caspian Near Russian Border – Jamestown
Belarus
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) An overwhelming majority of Belarusians believe Minsk should first prioritize economic relations with Russia followed by relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), according to a national opinion poll on foreign policy priorities conducted in late 2024. Belarusian public opinion remains adaptable despite growing alignment with Russia and the PRC as citizens have consistently favored whichever partnerships provide tangible benefits. All public opinion polling in Belarus faces credibility issues, as government-affiliated surveys lack transparency and online panels by independent researchers exclude key demographics, especially rural residents. Belarusians historically demonstrate flexible foreign policy preferences, suggesting that, if clear advantages were recognized, public opinion could pivot again to renewed cooperation with the West. – Belarusian Society Opts for Closer Relations with Russia and the People’s Republic of China – Jamestown
Canada
(Abi McGowan – Council on Foreign Relations) After being sworn in as prime minister last month, Mark Carney called a general election for April 28, stating that Canada’s leader needed a strong mandate to address the challenges posed by the Donald Trump administration. Although the Conservative Party had long been expected to return to power, the Liberal Party has experienced a historic surge in support since Carney took office, marking the largest polling increase in the country’s history. – Canada’s 2025 Elections: Why the U.S. Is on the Ballot | Council on Foreign Relations
Global Economy
(World Economic Forum) The global economy is entering a new, more uncertain phase driven by rising tariffs and policy unpredictability. Tariffs are causing widespread economic disruptions, but the effects vary across regions. – The global economy enters a new era | World Economic Forum
India – Pakistan
(Soufan Center) A group of four militants from Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) opened fire on civilians earlier this week in the tourist destination of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 26. The attack is considered to be the deadliest against civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attack, also carried out by Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, where over 160 people were killed during a four-day-long siege of the hotel. The aftermath of the recent attack in Kashmir could lead to increased communal tensions between Muslims and Hindus in India, likely providing the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi an opportunity to further marginalize religious minorities. Pakistan has long relied on terrorist proxies as part of its asymmetric strategy against India, and has renewed its focus on the issue of what Islamabad considers India’s occupation of Kashmir, likely a strategic attempt to divert attention from domestic discontent. – Deadly Attack in Kashmir Further Raises India-Pakistan Tensions – The Soufan Center
(Council on Foreign Relations) On April 22, 2025, gunmen killed at least twenty-six and injured seventeen at the popular tourist destination of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The Resistance Front (TRF), also known as the Kashmir Resistance, claimed responsibility for the region’s deadliest attack in two decades. TRF operates as an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based terrorist organization responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks. In response, India closed its main crossing with Pakistan, suspended a water-sharing treaty, and accused Islamabad of facilitating “cross-border terrorism.”. Violence has declined since India revoked the region’s autonomous status and integrated Jammu and Kashmir in 2019. However, the territory—historically disputed and also claimed by Pakistan—remains a flashpoint, with sporadic clashes between Indian and Pakistani forces and periodic attacks by militant groups. – Conflict Between India and Pakistan | Global Conflict Tracker
US
(Aubrey Hruby – Atlantic Council) During the current whole-of-government effort to address US national security vulnerabilities in critical mineral supply chains, the Donald Trump administration is overlooking a major asset in the US commercial policy toolbox—the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). In recent years, the MCC has fallen into the shadows of more high-profile US development finance tools such as the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the US Export-Import Bank (Eximbank). And reports this week indicate that the administration is planning to shutter the MCC entirely. That would be short-sighted. For an administration focused on aligning foreign aid with core strategic interests, particularly under an “America First” doctrine, the MCC represents an underutilized asset. Unlike other agencies such as the DFC and Eximbank, the MCC’s design—authorized by the bipartisan Millennium Challenge Act of 2003 (MCA 2003)—offers immediate, flexible, and large-scale grant capital that can be deployed immediately to advance US strategic priorities, without the need for congressional reauthorization or additional legislative action. – The Millennium Challenge Corporation could prove essential in the race for critical minerals. Reform it, don’t shut it down. – Atlantic Council
US – Iran
(Motahareh Heydari – Stimson Center) In a complex atmosphere fraught with mutual distrust, a second round of indirect negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States has taken place in Rome under the mediation of Oman. Initiated after an exchange of letters between top leaders in Washington and Tehran and led by a seasoned diplomat, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the talks carry multilayered significance. They mark a departure from mere message exchanges and a move toward testing the strategic will of both sides. Iran has entered these talks despite deep mistrust of the U.S. caused by the American withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during the first Trump administration, at a time when Iran was still in compliance with the nuclear agreement. Choosing Muscat as the mediator and main venue and employing largely indirect diplomacy reflects Iran’s resolve to manage tensions from a position of strength, dignity, and diplomatic prudence. Oman has served as a go-between for the U.S. and Iran since the 1990s and hosted backchannel talks in 2013 that preceded the successful JCPOA negotiations. – Progress in Iran–US Talks as Seen from Iran • Stimson Center
(Middle East Institute) Following seven years of diplomatic deadlock, Washington and Tehran have resumed nuclear negotiations — and for the first time in years, there are signs of real momentum. Alex Vatanka, MEI Senior Fellow and author of The Battle of the Ayatollahs in Iran, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to analyze the current round of talks, the technical issues under discussion, and the political stakes on both sides. He explores Iran’s economic and domestic pressures, US red lines, and the role of key players like Israel, China, and Oman in shaping the negotiations. – US-Iran Nuclear Talks: A Fragile Opening for Diplomacy | Middle East Institute
