From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Arms Control; Azerbaijan-Georgia; Central Asia; China-India; Climate Action; Europe-China; Indonesia; Pakistan; UK-Pacific; Vietnam
Arms Control
(Heather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan MacKenzie, Catherine Murphy – CSIS) The war in Ukraine has created an inflection point for Euro-Atlantic security. With the New START Treaty expiring in 2026 and no clear successor in sight, arms control as we know it is at risk of ending. The CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) set out to explore prospects for arms control with Russia following the end of the conflict in Ukraine. The study used an alternative futures methodology to identify consistent trends along with potential moments of opportunity for strengthening strategic stability and arms control. In nearly all future scenarios, the findings reveal that competition with Russia will likely continue after the Ukraine conflict and Europe will emerge as a key player in regional strategic stability. The United States and its NATO allies must consistently signal openness to arms control while enhancing deterrence to manage competition in an increasingly uncertain security environment. – Game On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms Control
Azerbaijan – Georgia
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili’s first official foreign visit to Azerbaijan reflects a pivot in Georgia’s foreign policy toward regional partnership amid strained relations with the European Union and Western partners. Georgia and Azerbaijan reaffirmed their opposition to foreign intervention in South Caucasus affairs, underscoring a mutual belief that regional challenges should be addressed internally without external influence. Tbilisi and Baku emphasized collaboration on strategic energy and transport corridors, such as the Middle Corridor, while exploring trilateral engagement with Armenia, signaling potential for a more cohesive and independent framework in the South Caucasus. – Azerbaijan-Georgia Ties Strengthened by Shared Stances on Key Regional Issues – Jamestown
Central Asia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The five Central Asian countries have suffered a new brain drain since gaining independence in 1991, with a large share of their advanced students and best scholars moving to the West rather than to Russia, as had been the case in Soviet times. This new brain drain has alarmed both the governments of the region, which consider it a threat to their futures, and Moscow, which views it as a way other countries are attempting to wean Central Asia away from Russia and weaken its influence. The Central Asian countries are doing more to retain or attract back their best minds from abroad, but Russia is now attempting to exploit that drive by calling for a joint Russian-Central Asian foundation to monitor and support this brain drain reversal. – Central Asian Countries Suffer Massive Brain Drain, Putting Their Futures at Risk – Jamestown
China – India
(Chietigj Bajpaee, Yu Jie – Chatham House) The China–US relationship is widely regarded as the defining geopolitical issue of the 21st century. But relations between China and India arguably hold greater long-term significance for the future of Asia and the global order. These two nations are the world’s most populous, together accounting for almost 40 per cent of the global population. China is the world’s second largest economy, with India currently the fifth largest – and soon to be the third largest. Yet, despite their rise having important consequences for the future of global governance, China–India relations are poorly understood outside of those countries. – How China–India relations will shape Asia and the global order | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Climate Action
(Clea Schumer, Sophie Boehm, Kirian Mischke-Reeds Cynthia Elliott – World Resources Institute) It’s been nearly 10 years since 194 countries adopted the Paris Agreement on climate change. And while many have made strides forward, their collective efforts still fall far short of what’s needed to avoid increasingly dangerous impacts and limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). The UN’s latest assessment, for example, finds that countries’ current policies put the world on course for 3.1 degrees C (5.6 degrees F) of warming, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions holding steady at 57 metric gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2030 and 2035. To limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, these emissions must instead decline rapidly to 33 GtCO2e in 2030 and 25 GtCO2e in 2035. – Getting Ambitious NDCs from Major Emitters | World Resources Institute
(Mariel Ferragamo, Clara Fong, Diana Roy, Sabine Baumgartner – Council on Foreign Relations) The year 2024 set an ominous heat record, as global average temperatures rose more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels for the first time. Climate scientists say that without vigorous efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, this warming trend is set to continue through the end of the century. – The Earth Experienced Another Year of Record Warming. The Climate Fallout Was Intense. | Council on Foreign Relations
Europe – China
(Steven Everts – European Union Institute for Security Studies) There is a dangerous idea that is going around Europe: that we have to quickly align with China because of Trump’s tornado. This is sometimes called the ‘China option’ by strategists, who see the world mainly as billiard balls that react to each other, in an eternal search for the balance of power. Because the United States under Trump is treating Europe in a hostile manner and seeking a rapprochement with Russia, Europe should strengthen ties with China. The Chinese, this group says, are not democrats but believe in a minimum of international rules of the game and free trade – unlike Trump. According to this reading, Europe would have been too carried away by President Biden in a Cold War-like crusade against China. Now that Trump treats us so badly, it is time for a more pro-Chinese course, which would better serve European interests. Moreover, Europe could not afford to have a bad relationship with Trump, Putin and Xi all at the same time. – Getting closer to China because of Trump? Sounds logical but it’s wrong | European Union Institute for Security Studies
Indonesia
(Fadhilah Primandari – East Asia Forum) The Indonesian government has passed revisions to Law No. 34/2004 on the National Military — allowing active military personnel to hold positions in more civil government bodies and ministries — which have ignited dispute among civil society organisations. Despite most Indonesians wanting democracy, readiness to sacrifice democratic processes for economic development poses significant challenges for those seeking to mobilise opposition against an autocratic trajectory of government policy. – Indonesian democracy takes another hit | East Asia Forum
Pakistan
(Hassan Aftab Sheikh – East Asia Forum) Pakistan ranks as the third most polluted country in the world. In its second-largest city, Lahore, air quality met the World Health Organization’s minimum standards on only seven days over the past five years. Pollution poses significant economic and health challenges, especially for the country’s poorest communities. To address this crisis, the government must implement robust policy measures: tightening transport emission regulations, enforcing stricter fuel quality standards, improving waste management, reducing reliance on crop burning, and committing to a net-zero emissions target. – Can Pakistan make the sky blue again? | East Asia Forum
UK – Pacific
(Nick Childs – IISS) Just about four years after the operational debut of the United Kingdom’s rejuvenated aircraft carrier capability on a Pacific-focused deployment, another UK carrier strike group (CSG) is about to set sail on a similar mission. The world is more challenging than it was in 2021, and so the messaging behind this new deployment is more complex. There are also some telling differences in the make-up of the latest CSG. – UK Pacific deployment: carrier on regardless?
Vietnam
(Xuan Dung Phan – East Asia Forum) Vietnam’s General Secretary To Lam is leading an ‘era of national rise’ towards 2030, striving for institutional reform and rapid economic growth to break Vietnam out of the middle-income trap. Despite having to address mounting challenges posed by US tariffs, environmental sustainability in light of rapid industrialisation and reform implementation risks, To Lam’s goal is to cement Vietnam’s position as Asia’s next economic powerhouse. – Vietnam goes big in its sprint to 2030 | East Asia Forum
