From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Black Sea; Ecuador-US; European NATO-Russia; Georgia; Italy-US; Russia; Sudan; UK-Arctic; Ukraine; US-China; US Tariffs
Black Sea
(Edward Black, Sidharth Kaushal – RUSI) After three years of fighting, many of the Russian navy’s limitations in the Black Sea have been exposed. The Black Sea Fleet has lost around a third of its combat strength and has been forced from its home port at Sevastopol by the threat of Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities along with Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs). Moreover, the invocation of Article 19 of the Montreux convention by Turkey, limiting the ability of both belligerent parties’ vessels to transit the Bosporus and Dardanelles, creates considerable limitations for both Russia and most NATO members in region. For Russia, should a ceasefire result in a relaxation of the convention, any vessel deployed to the Black Sea would be fixed in the region in the event of re-invocation and a return to hostilities. Montreux, by design, limits the freedom of action of NATO members not based in the Black Sea. It might, then, be asked whether the region will become, to some extent, a peripheral one for both Russia and NATO, and one which should be accorded secondary importance relative to maritime theatres such as the High North. While this view is understandable, the Black Sea retains considerable importance within Russian maritime – and the wider – economic strategy. Despite Turkey’s access-control, other non-riparian alliance members would be poorly served by a failure to engage with the region. – Black Sea Significance to European Security | Royal United Services Institute
Ecuador – US
(Isabel Chiriboga – Atlantic Council) In Sunday’s presidential election, the Ecuadorian people sent a clear signal of their hopes for economic stability, continuity, and closer alignment with Western allies in reelecting President Daniel Noboa. With 97 percent of the ballots counted and a voter turnout of 83 percent, Noboa and running mate Maria José Pinto secured more than 55 percent of the vote, an 11-percentage-point margin over challenger Luisa González, the heir to former President Rafael Correa’s populist legacy. González has refused to recognize the results and alleges that the results were fraudulent. However, her party has presented no concrete evidence to support this claim. Meanwhile, the National Electoral Council and international observers report no signs of widespread irregularities. Nevertheless, the claim fuels tensions in an already polarized electorate and could potentially result in social unrest. – What Noboa’s reelection means for US-Ecuador ties – Atlantic Council
European NATO – Russia
(Justin Bronk, Jack Watling – RUSI) Conventional deterrence of Russian aggression in the Euro-Atlantic area requires a demonstrable NATO capacity to defeat Russian ground force incursions within politically acceptable timeframes. In the context of increasingly strained transatlantic relations and US prioritisation of the Indo-Pacific – where deterrence of a war over Taiwan is strongly in the interests of European NATO, and the US military is increasingly overstretched – European NATO members need to demonstrate that they can deter conventional aggression by Russian forces. NATO land forces are overwhelmingly dependent on air power for fires. Without large-scale US assistance, however, European air forces would currently struggle to roll back dense and integrated air defence systems (IADS) such as those protecting Russian forces. Accelerating the degradation of the Russian IADS in any conflict is therefore critical to enabling the defeat of Russian ground forces. This is increasingly a joint task, and therefore this paper considers the issues of land-air integration in achieving the suppression and destruction of enemy (Russian) air defences (SEAD/DEAD). – Rebalancing European Joint Fires to Deter Russia | Royal United Services Institute
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, passed the Foreign Agents Registration Act on April 1, expanding control over media and individuals by criminalizing foreign-funded activity, leading to media closures, and provoking international condemnation for eroding democratic freedoms. Georgian Dream has initiated sweeping personnel changes and legislative restrictions, including limiting election observation rights and expanding an investigative commission that threatens opposition leaders with prosecution and possible party bans. The ruling Georgian Dream party’s strategy increasingly aligns with authoritarian practices, aiming to dismantle political opposition, dominate elections, and abandon its democratic trajectory and Western alliances. – Georgian Government Initiates Sweeping Changes in Preparation For Local Elections – Jamestown
Italy – US
(Nicholas O’Connell, Jacopo Pastorelli – Atlantic Council) Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrives in Washington on April 17 at a precarious moment for transatlantic relations. Against the backdrop of Washington’s resurgent tariff-driven protectionism, a strategic rift over Ukraine, and signs of mounting US distrust in European leadership—exemplified by the Signal-gate episode—Meloni faces a diplomatic tightrope walk. She must defend Italy’s economic interests, sway the US administration away from a tit-for-tat trade war against the European Union, and reaffirm the importance of transatlantic unity—all while facing creeping domestic and European skepticism about her ability to deliver. Meloni’s Washington visit is the first for a European leader since President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, and it represents a litmus test for the future of US-European Union (EU) relations in an evolving global landscape. – Meloni, Trump, and a test of transatlantic resolve – Atlantic Council
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Nominally “apolitical” ecological protests are becoming seedbeds of political activism in Russia because of the importance of the environment to Russian citizens and Moscow’s clumsy approach to its maintenance. The Vladimir Putin regime is increasingly aware of the threat posed by environmental activism and is attempting to buy off activists, an approach that is unlikely to be more successful than its use of repression. Politicization of the environmental movement is likely to grow and may prove a more important agent of change in Russia than more explicitly political movements. – Environmental Protest in Russia Again a Seedbed of Political Opposition – Jamestown
Sudan
(Michael Jones – RUSI) With the Sudanese Armed Forces seizing the presidential palace and much of downtown Khartoum back from the Rapid Support Forces, commentators are already identifying a turning point that may shape political opportunities for a settlement. – The Sudan Conflict, Two Years On | Royal United Services Institute
(Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) Two years of war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have created a humanitarian disaster. The country is coping with mass displacement, famine, and war crimes against its civilians while its most crucial aid source—the United States—sharply pulls back on assistance. Sudan’s third year of war could be shaping up to be one of its most brutal. – A Third Year of War: Dried-Up Aid Pulls Sudan Further Into Chaos | Council on Foreign Relations
UK – Arctic
(Anthony Heron – RUSI) The Arctic is no longer a distant afterthought for global security, it is a frontline. As ice recedes, new shipping routes, untapped resources, and rising military activity are transforming the region into a potential geopolitical flashpoint. The UK, despite branding itself as the ‘Arctic’s nearest neighbour’, risks becoming a spectator in a contest that directly impacts its security and economic resilience. If Britain wants to secure its place as a key actor in the High North, it needs to move beyond gestures and deliver real strategic action. – Frozen Out: Why the UK Must Step Up in the Arctic | Royal United Services Institute
Ukraine
(Iryna Dobrohorska – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The reintegration of the veterans of its armed forces is one of the significant challenges for Ukraine amid fighting off Russia’s full-scale invasion. Historically, the state’s approach to reintegrating them has been fragmented. The importance of addressing the needs of veterans and approaching the issue on a larger scale became more urgent with the first phase of the ongoing war that started in 2014, and it became even more pressing since 2022’s invasion. Ukraine’s ability to develop and implement a sound approach to veteran reintegration is not only a matter of giving proper recognition and support to those who fought for the country; it is also an important aspect of strengthening national defense and eventually recovery efforts. – Reintegrating Ukraine’s Veterans: Challenges and Policy Responses | German Marshall Fund of the United States
US – China
(William Matthews – Chatham House) The Trump administration’s use of tariffs to escalate the trade war with China has captured global attention and pressured Beijing into tit-for-tat measures. But alongside tariffs, Beijing has deployed another economic weapon in its arsenal that could have a more powerful impact: its ability to control the global supply of rare earth minerals. By restricting access to these critical minerals, China has the potential to do serious damage to the US defence industry and undermine the Trump administration’s wider reindustrialization ambitions. Ultimately, this could give Beijing a crucial strategic advantage in long-term US–China competition for military and technological supremacy and add to its existing manufacturing lead. – China’s rare earth export restrictions threaten Washington’s military primacy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US Tariffs
(Samir Puri – Chatham House) Alongside the market turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s shifting tariff policy, a parallel set of impacts are emerging in global security. The full effects may only be seen over time, but US tariffs threaten to produce outcomes that run contrary to Washington’s security objectives. President Donald Trump assumes that he can afford to be overly assertive, even cavalier in his policies because other countries simply cannot afford to turn their backs on the US. But his constantly shifting tariff announcements have placed that belief under more stress than ever before. As trade with the US becomes more complex, unpredictable and expensive, some countries – including key US partners – may see additional incentives to rethink the extent of their security dependence on Washington. The effects on international security are playing out differently among European and Asian allies, two regions that have relied on US security commitments for eight decades. But both are re-examining how committed this US administration is to their needs. – President Trump’s tariffs increase pressure on allies to reduce security dependence on the US | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
