From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Australia-China, Central Asia, China, Europe, Georgia-US, Global Economy, India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, Indonesia-Russia, Iraq, Russia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), South Korea, South Sudan, Taiwan-US, US, US-ASEAN, US-Israel, US-Middle East, US-Russia, US-Southeast Asia-China
Australia – China
(David Livingstone – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Western complacency is hard to shake, but every now and then a jolt interrupts the slumber, such as when Chinese automaker, Build Your Dreams (BYD), overtook Tesla as the largest producer of electric vehicles. More recently, the Chinese artificial intelligence model DeepSeek shocked with its capability and the speed and low cost of its development, sending Nvidia’s shares down by approximately AUD$948 billion. Is it time that the West reassessed its attitude toward China? The urgent question now may be, can the West learn from China? This simple question may challenge the world view of many, but the West’s conviction of its own moral superiority does not guarantee its continued global dominance. – Can Australia Learn Anything from China? – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Central Asia
(Temur Umarov, Alibek Mukambayev – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) The Ferghana Valley, divided on the political map between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, has resembled a battlefield ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Hundreds of people have been killed in skirmishes and armed clashes in the region over the past three decades. Agricultural conditions rendered any kind of resolution seemingly impossible: resources are limited in this predominantly agrarian, densely populated, arid region. In addition, officials in all three states used the border conflicts for domestic political purposes. On March 31, however, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan assembled in the Tajik city of Khujand to solemnly declare an end to all of their territorial disputes. Future conflicts cannot be ruled out completely. But for now, Central Asia’s leaders see far greater benefits from cooperation than from aggression. That might be the only guarantor of stability in the Ferghana region. – Central Asian States Have Put Aside Their Territorial Disputes. Why Now? | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
China
(Euan Graham, Ray Powell – The Strategist) Civilian exploration may be the official mission of a Chinese deep-sea research ship that sailed clockwise around Australia over the past week and is now loitering west of the continent. But maybe it’s also attending to naval duties. These could have included laying or servicing seabed acoustic sensors and possibly detailed mapping of parts of the ocean floor to support future submarine operations. Open-source tracking data enables such educated guesses to be made, without discounting the possibilities of economic and scientific data-gathering. The ship, Tansuo Yi Hao (Exploration 1) took a similar route around Australia in January 2023, investigating 1100km of the Diamantina Trench over 34 days. China’s state media later said this was the first time the bottom of the trench had been reached. The ship carries a crewed submersible, the Fendouzhe (Striver), capable of long-duration forays to the seabed in depths exceeding 10,000 metres. – Seabed sensors and mapping: what China’s survey ship could be up to | The Strategist
Europe
(Giovanni Grevi – Carnegie Europe) Just like with tango, it takes two sides to sustain the transatlantic partnership: Europe and the United States. Since the reelection of U.S. President Donald Trump, European leaders have been seeking to engage him and his administration in discussions about both shared priorities and differences. They went through three increasingly uncomfortable phases in this endeavor. Back in November 2024, they started off in a pragmatic crisis prevention mode, seeking to match Trump’s supposed expectations with transactional deals, from trade to defense. – Securing Europe’s Future: Partnership Through Strength | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Georgia – US
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia seeks a diplomatic reset with the U.S. President Donald Trump Administration following strained relations due to contested October 2024 parliamentary elections and subsequent protests. The Georgian government accuses an invisible “deep state” of anti-Georgian sentiment in the West and hopes that the Trump Administration will defeat it and restore a cooperative strategic partnership with Georgia. Georgian Dream appears willing to align with the Trump Administration on key geopolitical issues, but U.S. congressional support for sanctions and democratic reforms under the MEGOBARI Act may complicate Tbilisi’s ambitions. – Georgian Dream Seeks to Reset U.S.-Georgian Relations – Jamestown
Global Economy
(Josh Lipsky – Atlantic Council) US President Donald Trump has launched a global economic war without any allies. That’s why—unlike previous economic crises in this century—there is no one coming to save the global economy if the situation starts to unravel. There is a model to deal with economic and financial crises over the past two decades, and it requires activating the Group of Twenty (G20) and relying on the US Federal Reserve to provide liquidity to a financial system under stress. Neither option will be available in the current challenge. – No one is coming to save the global economy – Atlantic Council
India – Middle East – Europe Corridor
(Gabriel Mitchell – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), an ambitious project launched on Sept. 9, 2023 by the United States, the EU, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Italy, and India, has kept a low profile during the Israel-Hamas war. But following the announcement of a ceasefire in January 2025, and amid the predictable chaos of US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, it has reemerged as a hot topic in diplomatic and commercial circles. Italy recently signaled its commitment to the corridor by appointing Ambassador Francesco Talò as its first special envoy for IMEC. Talò is an accomplished diplomat who previously served as Italy’s ambassador to NATO and Israel, and as envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Prior to assuming his new position, Talò was a diplomatic adviser to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. His appointment sends a message that Italy appreciates the economic and geopolitical opportunities that the corridor offers. – Tomorrow’s Global Superhighway | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Indonesia – Russia
(Darul Mahdi – The Strategist) Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has repeatedly asserted the country’s commitment to a non-aligned foreign policy. But can Indonesia still credibly claim neutrality while tacitly engaging with Russia? Holding an unprecedented bilateral naval drills with Moscow in Indonesian waters while Russia wages a full-scale war against Ukraine is a strategic misstep. The move risks undermining Indonesia’s own stated commitment to upholding international law. It also creates a perception of inconsistency in its foreign policy and weakens its moral standing on the global stage. – Exercises with Russia undermine Indonesia’s commitment to international law | The Strategist
Iraq
(Michael Knights – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) For years now, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces have been recognized as a danger to both American national security interests and Iraqi civilians, with U.S.-designated terrorists holding senior PMF leadership posts (including chairman and chief of staff) while exploiting the force’s structure to provide government paychecks to tens of thousands of rank-and-file militia members belonging to designated terrorist groups like Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Despite this blatant puppeteering by Iran-backed elements accused of killing Iraqis and U.S. troops alike, Baghdad is currently considering two pieces of legislation that would further legitimize the PMF as a permanent national security institution. – The Danger of Letting Iraq’s PMF Authority Law Pass | The Washington Institute
Russia
(John C.K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Sweden’s Security Service warns of an alarming shift in Russian espionage tactics, involving the recruitment of individuals suffering from substance addiction for sabotage missions as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy targeting Sweden and Europe. Sweden’s recent accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has intensified Russian intelligence activities, with Russia increasing the dissemination of disinformation, cyberattacks, and covert operations. Russia continues to rely on “legitimate” espionage channels such as embassy personnel and religious institutions in Sweden while targeting potential assets through social media as expendable agents. – Sweden’s SÄPO Reports that Russia is Evolving Sabotage Tactics – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Peter Dickinson – Atlantic Council) Almost one month since Ukraine agreed to a US-led unconditional ceasefire, Russia has this week come up with yet another excuse to avoid following suit. Speaking in Moscow on April 7, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed that while Russian President Vladimir Putin backs calls for a ceasefire, questions remain over the Ukrainian government’s alleged inability to control “a number of extremist and nationalist units that simply do not obey Kyiv.”. This latest excuse is a variation of the tired old trope about “Ukrainian Nazis” that has been used exhaustively by the Kremlin since 2014 to legitimize Russia’s escalating aggression against Ukraine. For more than a decade, Putin’s propagandists have been depicting Ukraine as a hotbed of far-right extremism as part of a disinformation campaign designed to dehumanize ordinary Ukrainians and prepare the ground for the wholesale erasure of Ukrainian national identity. It therefore comes as no surprise that Moscow is now citing this phantom fascist threat in order to rebuff calls for a ceasefire. – Russia’s endless ceasefire excuses are proof that Putin does not want peace – Atlantic Council
South Korea
(Jae-seung Lee, Dae-joong Lee – Australian Institute of International Affairs) On 3 December 2024 at 22:27 Korea Standard Time (KST), South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol unexpectedly declared a nationwide state of emergency martial law in a televised address. In his declaration, Yoon accused the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), which holds a majority in the National Assembly, of engaging in “anti-state activities” and collaborating with “North Korean communists” to undermine the nation. This event was widely characterised as an attempted self-coup by both domestic and international political circles. Upon hearing President Yoon’s declaration, Korean lawmakers urgently made their way to the National Assembly building. The South Korean Constitution grants the National Assembly the authority to revoke martial law through a majority vote. At 01:01 on 4 December, the lawmakers convened and passed a resolution annulling martial law approximately two and a half hours after the declaration of illegal and unconstitutional martial law. – 2024 Martial Law Crisis in South Korea and Democratic Resilience – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Kunwoo Kim – The Strategist) South Korea’s internal political instability leaves it vulnerable to rising security threats including North Korea’s military alliance with Russia, China’s growing regional influence and the United States’ unpredictability under President Donald Trump. South Korea needs a firm and cohesive security strategy that aligns with the US and Japan. Otherwise, it may suffer irreparable damage. North Korea’s nuclear advancements pose the most immediate threat. In January, Pyongyang launched what it claimed to be a hypersonic missile, which flew 1000km across Japan’s exclusive economic zone. During Joe Biden’s term as US president, South Korea increased military and intelligence cooperation with the US and Japan to enhance extended deterrence. Military information sharing, the US-South Korea Nuclear Consultative Group and the deployment of US submarines have all been important responses to North Korea’s growing arsenal. – South Korea must move beyond partisan division to tackle security threats | The Strategist
South Sudan
(Dame Rosalind Marsden – Chatham House) South Sudan’s civil war ended in 2018 through a peace agreement between President Salva Kiir’s South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Government (SPLM-IG) and Riek Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO). This agreement is now being strained to breaking point by clashes between government and opposition forces, the arrest of prominent political figures – including Machar himself – and the spillover of conflict from Sudan. The head of the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan has warned that the country is teetering on the brink of a return to full-scale civil war, which would have a devastating impact on the entire region. – South Sudan’s shaky peace is at risk of collapse. Can it be saved? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Taiwan – US
(Jane Rickards – The Strategist) Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te must have been on his toes. The island’s trade and defence policy has snapped into a new direction since US President Donald Trump took office in January. The government was almost certainly behind a deft move by the country’s giant semiconductor company, TSMC, to set up three production facilities in the United States. Also, Lai’s administration has stepped up plans to import the kinds of US products that would catch Trump’s eye. It’s pushing for a hefty rise in defence spending, too. – Anticipating what Trump wants, Taiwan puts money in America first | The Strategist
US
(Bruce Stokes – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The United States is one of the world’s largest import markets. However, it runs a large merchandise trade deficit, particularly with China, Mexico, and Vietnam, and its deficit with the EU has grown in the last decade. Given the Trump administration’s recent trade policy moves, the average US tariff rate now exceeds that of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs during the Great Depression. Donald Trump’s game plan has been to keep other governments off balance, but Washington may have less leverage than it assumes. It is less dependent on world trade than any other G20 nation and is not party to most of the world’s fastest growing trade corridors. Moreover, the tariffs threaten inflation and increase the risk of a recession in the United States. Recent public opinion studies show that, in general, Americans see trade as an opportunity. But they also think that it has destroyed jobs and lowered wages. Americans support tariffs on China but not on Canada, Europe, or Mexico. A majority of US voters think Trump’s tariffs will have a negative effect on the American economy, with two-thirds of the public believing that they will raise prices. – The Trump Tariffs, Their Impact, and US Public Opinion | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) In the first few months of his second term, President Donald Trump has taken steps to carry out what he has previously said will be “the largest domestic deportation operation” in U.S. history. The administration says its moves—which include hundreds of deportation flights and Trump’s invocation of the seldom-used 1798 Alien Enemies Act—are necessary to stem unauthorized immigration to the United States. Experts say recipient countries are likely feeling economic and political pressure from the United States to accept deportees. – Here’s Where Trump’s Deportations Are Sending Migrants | Council on Foreign Relations
US – ASEAN
(Niaz Asadullah, Doris Liew – The Interpreter) For decades, the tiger economies of the ASEAN region have flourished under an export-led growth model, anchored by strong trade relationships with major economies, including the United States and China. In 2023 alone, the United States and China respectively accounted for 16% and 15% of total ASEAN merchandise exports. Given this significant trade dependence, it is unsurprising that the region is now expressing serious concerns over the potential economic fallout from the new US tariff policy. ASEAN comprises a diverse mix of economies, from more advanced markets like Singapore and Malaysia, to developing nations such as Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos. Aspirational middle powers like Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are positioned in between. All ASEAN members are expected to be negatively affected by the new US tariffs, albeit to varying degrees. – A tariffying shift for the ASEAN market | Lowy Institute
US – Israel
(The Soufan Center) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House earlier this week, where the leaders discussed a range of issues, including Trump’s tariffs, negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, and Türkiye-Israel relations, especially as tensions have escalated over each country’s role in a post-Assad Syria. There have been some questions about how Netanyahu will deal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as both countries battle for influence in Syria, although Trump suggested that he could serve as a mediator to help the two leaders move beyond their differences. Hamas has been seriously degraded as a military force in Gaza but has not been destroyed, as Netanyahu promised in the opening weeks of Israel’s military campaign. Trump also revealed during the White House meeting that the U.S. was engaged in “direct talks” with Iran over its nuclear program, although it is unclear whether key obstacles – such as Iranian support for its proxies or its ballistic missile program – will prove insurmountable. – Netanyahu’s Visit to the White House Highlights Critical Foreign Policy Issues – The Soufan Center
US – Middle East
(Brian Katulis – Middle East Institute) US President Donald Trump surprised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by publicly announcing “direct” talks between the United States and Iran set to take place later this week. Netanyahu was visiting the White House on Monday, April 7. His meeting with Trump, the second between the two men in less than three months, came days after the American president unleashed global economic uncertainty by announcing simultaneous, unexpectedly high tariffs on dozens of countries around the world — including a 17% duty on Israel — and kicking off an escalating global trade war. – Trump’s whirlwind of uncertainty and chaos hits the global economy and the Middle East | Middle East Institute
US – Russia
(Sergey Vakulenko – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) Just as certain classes of medication are sometimes in vogue and prescribed to help with all kinds of ailments, it seems that U.S. President Donald Trump and his team have stumbled upon a magical remedy for all the world’s problems: tariffs. Everybody and their retirement accounts are now acutely aware of tariffs’ (possible) power to fix (nonexistent) balance of trade problems—and very real power to send financial markets into a tailspin. With all the attention on Trump’s April 2 unveiling of “reciprocal” tariffs and its aftermath, the announcement of a novel economic statecraft tool, secondary tariffs, is going almost unnoticed. President Trump is trying to make Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire on terms that neither would likely find favorable. To achieve that Trump is having to use both threats and enticements. – Trump’s Secondary Sanctions on Russian Oil Are a Lose-Lose Proposition | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
US – Southeast Asia – China
(Ben Bland – Chatham House) Southeast Asian leaders have long argued that they should not have to choose sides between the US and China. Indeed, trading nations such as Malaysia and Vietnam have arguably profited from heightened China–US rivalry over the last few years, attracting manufacturers keen to diversify away from China in order to maintain access to the US market. Beijing has long been the major target of US President Donald Trump’s opprobrium on trade. However, Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, announced on 2 April, have hit Southeast Asia particularly hard, throwing countries’ short-term economic plans into disarray, undermining the basis of their long-term development models, and pushing them further into an uncomfortable embrace with China, their largest trading partner. – Trump’s tariffs will push Southeast Asia uncomfortably close to China | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
