From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: China, Climate Action and Strategies, India-US, Indonesia, Middle East, Russia-China-Caspian Sea, Russia-Georgia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Russia-West, US
China
(Ian Coxhead, Varan Kitayaporn – East Asia Forum) China’s manufacturing-focused stimulus measures and industrial policies are enhancing its global competitiveness at the expense of middle-income Asian economies. As China strengthens its position in global trade in skill-intensive sectors, these economies may slide back towards primary sectors and face falling educational enrolment rates. Such a change threatens their development ambitions that require higher skill levels for dynamic growth. – China’s export boom is squeezing middle-income Asia | East Asia Forum
(Peter Mattis – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing’s diplomatic rhetoric advocates upholding international rules and norms, but this diverges sharply from both its words to party officials at home and its actions abroad that undermine and violate international laws and institutions. Beijing benefits from an international order in which other powers are restrained by rules that it claims are biased and so chooses not to follow. This explains how Foreign Minister Wang Yi can both promise to “safeguard … the international system with the United Nations at its core” and reject inconvenient international rulings as “a political circus dressed up as a legal action.”. Polls suggest Beijing’s rhetoric is resonating with other countries, as Beijing offers itself as a new partner of choice to provide stability in an uncertain world. Its actions instead suggest it intends to divide democracies and create more freedom of action for Beijing. – Rules for Thee, but Not for Me – Jamestown
Climate Action and Strategies
(East Asia Forum) The United States is threatening to upend international climate cooperation through protectionist tariffs and by exiting the Paris Climate Agreement. But there is still hope to advance the green agenda. East Asian partners in the RCEP could establish a regional green trade initiative to accelerate low-carbon technology adoption without punishing developing countries, while common financial frameworks may be key to keeping trade and investment open. – Keeping the climate agenda on track in a Trumpian world | East Asia Forum
India – US
(Shashi Tharoor – ASPI The Strategist) US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats have dominated headlines in India in recent weeks. Earlier this month, Trump announced that his reciprocal tariffs—matching other countries’ tariffs on American goods—will go into effect on 2 April, causing Indian exporters to panic at the prospect of being embroiled in Trump’s escalating trade war. Trump’s unpredictability offers little solace. While he recently suspended tariffs on cars and automobile parts from Mexico and Canada for one month—ostensibly to give US automakers time to ramp up domestic production—any hope that India might receive similar exemptions is, at best, wishful thinking. – Trump’s tariffs challenge India’s economic balance | The Strategist
Indonesia
(Arrizal Jaknanihan – East Asia Forum) Indonesia’s efforts to expand its export reach through economic diplomacy are at odds with low productivity and protectionist policies that foster an unfavourable domestic business environment. The country’s imperative is to improve regulatory efficiency, alleviate protectionist measures, streamline bureaucracy and create a predictable business environment to fully capitalise on international market opportunities and maintain competitiveness amid global trade wars. – Indonesia’s economic diplomacy must begin at home | East Asia Forum
Middle East
(Atlantic Council) “Tonight, we returned to fighting in Gaza.” That’s what Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said after Israel launched air strikes in the early hours of Tuesday, effectively breaking a two-month cease-fire. Israeli officials said the strikes against Hamas targets were intended to pre-empt terrorist attacks the group was planning against Israeli civilians and were a response to Hamas’s refusal to return more hostages taken on October 7, 2023. The Trump administration publicly backed Israel’s action, which comes as negotiations stalled on advancing to a more permanent cease-fire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. – The Gaza cease-fire is over. What’s next from Israel, Hamas, and the US? – Atlantic Council
Russia – China – Caspian Sea
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Caspian Sea’s declining water levels are reducing the amount of cargo that ships can carry, undermining Russia and the People’s Republic of China’s capability to use the sea for their north-south and east-west trade networks. Both Russia and the People’s Republic of China will continue to use land routes around the Caspian but face complex problems due to a shortage of transportation networks and political instability in the region. Moscow and Beijing will seek new ways to make these corridors work, efforts that will likely put additional pressure on littoral states to allow them to bypass the increasingly bottlenecked Caspian. – Declining Caspian Water Levels Threaten Russian and Chinese Corridor Plans – Jamestown
Russia – Georgia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia is under increasing pressure from Russia to join the 3+3 format on regional cooperation for peace and stability in the South Caucasus, which includes Russia, Iran, and Türkiye along with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and, intentionally, Georgia. The Kremlin views Georgia’s participation as crucial for strengthening Russian influence in the South Caucasus, given Georgia’s geographic significance, arguing that the format aligns with Georgia’s national interests. The ruling Georgian Dream party remains cautious, however, as concerns about economic dependencies on Russia, domestic discontent, and international alignment shape Tbilisi’s foreign policy trajectory. – Russia Pressures Georgia to Join Regional 3+3 Format – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Mark F. Cancian, Maria Snegovaya – Center for Strategic & International Studies) President Trump and President Putin had a long (estimated at two or more hours) phone call today, March 18. Ukraine was the focus, but discussions covered a variety of topics. It followed a U.S. meeting with Ukraine where President Zelensky agreed to a 30-day ceasefire. Here is a line-by-line analysis of the White House statement, along with insights from the separate Russian statement. – The Trump-Putin Phone Call: Some Promise, Some Disappointments, and Many Questions
(Atlantic Council) Progress for peace or stalling tactic? On Tuesday, after a ninety-minute phone call with US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to refrain from attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure for thirty days. However, Putin did not commit to a full, unconditional thirty-day cease-fire, which Washington and Kyiv agreed to last week. He also repeated his earlier demand that Ukraine must stop receiving foreign military aid. What does the phone call mean for the war? And what are the next steps in US talks with Russia and Ukraine? – The real meaning of Putin’s 30-day ‘energy cease-fire’ in Ukraine – Atlantic Council
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has proposed hosting peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and U.S. representatives to negotiate in a “calm” and “neutral” setting. Belarus has a history of hosting peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which resulted in the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements. Belarus’s “situational neutrality” aligns with Western strategic interests vis-à-vis regional military transparency, risk reduction, and confidence-building. – Belarus Offers to Host Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine – Jamestown
Russia – West
(Seth G. Jones – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Russia is conducting an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and U.S. targets in Europe led by Russian military intelligence (the GRU), according to a new CSIS database of Russian activity. The number of Russian attacks nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024. Russia’s primary targets have included transportation, government, critical infrastructure, and industry, and its main weapons and tactics have included explosives, blunt or edged instruments (such as anchors), and electronic attack. Despite the increase in Russian attacks, Western countries have not developed an effective strategy to counter these attacks. – Russia’s Shadow War Against the West
US
(Council of Councils) After only six weeks in office, President Donald Trump has already sent shockwaves through the world regarding U.S. foreign and economic policy. The Council of Councils Initiative at CFR asked members to reflect on his March 4 address to Congress, and what his words and actions mean for U.S. engagement with their region. – President Trump’s Address to Congress: Global Reactions | Council of Councils
