From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : China, Climate Action, Democratic Republic of the Congo, France-India, Germany-US-Europe, Global Sanctions, Haiti, India-Russia, Iraq, Middle East, NATO, North Korea-Russia, Russia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Southern African Countries, UK, US, US-Europe, US-Hong Kong-China, US-Latin America, US-Panama, Uyghurs-Thailand-China
China
(IISS) Against the backdrop of intensifying United States–China competition over technology, China has over the last six months shifted its strategy from using informal trade bans and symbolic legal and regulatory changes to actively imposing export controls. In doing so, Beijing is signaling that it has spent considerable time identifying its national economic strengths, weaknesses and exposure to US sanctions, and now is more confident in itself as an equal competitor against the US. While elements of China’s approach can be seen as emulating the United States’ export controls against Chinese technology companies, there are unique aspects to China’s strategy too – such as the creation of an economic early-warning system. These moves should be understood within the wider context of China’s attempts to both enhance its national resilience and self-reliance in sectors that are central to economic growth and US–China competition as well as bolster its ability to use offensive tools against its adversaries. For now, this strategy looks to be directed mostly at the US as China seeks to rebuild its relationship with Europe while transatlantic relations are fracturing in the background. However, the extraterritorial nature of Chinese export controls means collateral damage is possible and US allies could also find themselves in the crosshairs of China’s new strategy. – China’s use of export controls
(Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) One of the most significant developments in Beijing concerning its economy has been President Xi Jinping’s meeting with the heads of China Inc. in February 2025. While there is regular communication between the political executive or the legislative wing of the Party-state, and the doyen of industry in China, the timing of this interaction is noteworthy. The conclave assumes importance in light of the slowing economy, the escalating technology curbs instituted by Washington, and the tariff shocks of Donald Trump 2.0. In the past, such sittings have taken place at crucial junctures— in July 2020 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and previously in November 2018 at the height of the US-China trade war. It also signals Xi closing ranks with the captains of industry, some of whom like Alibaba’s Ma Yun (Jack Ma) have been a target of his regulatory campaigns. Regulators abruptly stopped the initial public offering (IPO) of Ant—the financial and lending arm of the Alibaba Group—in 2020. An anti-monopoly investigation followed suit against the group, resulting in regulators imposing a penalty of US$ 2.8 billion in April 2021. Ma later relinquished control over the Alibaba group in 2023. – Xi’s meeting with China Inc: Economic revival amidst US trade barriers
Climate Action
(World Resources Institute) This study constructs a low-carbon city evaluation system encompassing four key areas: low-carbon production, consumption, environment, and progress. Jointly developed by the World Resources Institute and the Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, the study assesses 102 cities worldwide using 15 key indicators. By classifying cities based on climate zones, industrial structure, and international status, it offers a standardized assessment framework and valuable insights to support low-carbon urban development, with a particular focus on Chinese cities. – Low-Carbon City Development in China: Evaluation Results for More Than 100 Cities Around the World | World Resources Institute
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News) Health authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) are carrying out further investigations to determine the cause of another cluster of illness and deaths in Équateur province, UN officials reported on Thursday. – DR Congo: WHO tracks deadly mysterious illness | UN News
France – India
(Harsh V. Pant, Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to France earlier this month, comprised two components — the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit, and a deepening of Indo-French bilateral ties. Building on the summits that took place in the UK and South Korea, the Paris Summit endeavoured to reinforce the development of AI research and applications for the public good. In line with the human-centric framework advocated during its G20 presidency, India aims to distribute the benefits of AI equitably amongst its population, while advocating for the AI needs of the wider Global South. India’s National AI Mission draws from similar principles of openness and accessibility underpinning India’s successful Digital Public Infrastructure that is rapidly transforming its society and economy. The International Monetary Fund estimates that more Indians will use AI every day than in any other country before the end of this decade, making India central to any global framework on AI. – Paris and Delhi: Partnering for stability in a volatile world
Germany – US – Europe
(Moritz Graefrath – Lawfare – 27 February 2025) On Feb. 12, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a speech that appears to be a watershed moment in U.S. policy toward Europe. Emphasizing the need to shift attention from Europe to the threat of China in East Asia, Hegseth forcefully called on European states to take on a greater share of the burden of providing for their security. During the same week, U.S. Vice President Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference—which for decades had served as an annual performance piece of transatlantic unity—did little to assuage European fears. Vance argued that the real threat to Europe was not Russia but mass migration and censorship of conservative voices, and European leaders found unusually clear words of disbelief and criticism in response. With the future of the transatlantic alliance hanging in the balance, German citizens went to the polls on Feb. 23 to vote in a pivotal snap election called after the collapse of the previous coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the left-leaning Green Party, and the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP). While it was not security and defense policy but immigration and the economy that dominated the public debate in the run-up to the election, voters were also confronted with starkly contrasting visions for the future of German foreign policy. – The German Election and the Future of U.S.-European Relations | Lawfare
Global Sanctions
(Stephen J. Fallon, George A. Lopez – Just Security) As debates continue about sanctions relief for Syria and peace talks are being planned for the Russia-Ukraine War, Western leaders and foreign affairs officials face an uncomfortable reality: they have absolutely no idea how to lift economic and financial sanctions once a war ends and elongated sanctions regimes need to be changed. This intractable problem of economic statecraft is one that few understand or are willing to acknowledge. To be more specific, Western leaders, and particularly those in the United States, have not developed a successful strategy for leveraging sanctions to negotiate major concessions that end hostilities. Nor have they constructed a toolkit for how to provide timely sanctions reduction that would clarify, incentivize, or reciprocate such concessions. At best, leaders often lament that it is always easier to impose sanctions than to adapt or terminate them in a ripe-for-resolution crisis negotiation. – To Support Peace Efforts, The West Needs to Reduce Sanctions
Haiti
(UN News) Ongoing gang violence in Haiti has displaced more than a million people, nearly a tenth of the population, or three times more than last year, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator in the country said on Thursday. – Haiti: Over one million displaced by gang violence | UN News
India – Russia
(Rahul Wankhede – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The success of the AK-203 Joint Venture could serve as a model for future collaborations between India and Russia in arms, ammunition, weapon systems and platforms. However, challenges such as pricing concerns, production delays and geopolitical pressures must be addressed proactively to ensure seamless execution. – AK-203 Rifle Joint Venture and India–Russia Defence Cooperation – MP-IDSA
Iraq
(Emirates Policy Center) On January 21, 2025, the Iraqi parliament passed three controversial laws as a single package, each addressing demands from different political factions: an amendment to the Personal Status Law (a Shiite demand), an amendment to the General Amnesty Law (a Sunni demand) and the Land Restitution Law (aimed at addressing Kurdish territorial claims). The Iraqi judiciary began enforcing the General Amnesty Law. However, debates surrounding this law persist at both legal and political levels due to concerns over its selective and potentially politicized application, as well as suspicions of corruption. The passage of the Land Restitution Law, in its current form, suggests that it was not subjected to thorough review to assess its broader implications. Rather than resolving disputes, the law risks exacerbating social tensions and nationalist divisions in already fragile regions. Shiite political forces emerged as the biggest winners in the “one basket” deal. By granting clerics the authority of “Sharia law judges” in civil status courts, they have successfully institutionalized their influence over legal and personal status matters. The conflict between the Federal Supreme Court (FSC) and the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) over the “one basket” laws highlights not only political tensions in Iraq only but also a broader legal vacuum. The situation underscores the lack of clear constitutional boundaries defining the jurisdiction and authority of the country’s three branches of power, leading to conflicting interpretations of the Constitution. – Emirates Policy Center | The Political, Security and Social Fallout of Iraq’s ‘One Basket’ Legislations
(Emirates Policy Center) Iraq has yet to develop a successful strategy to balance US threats to eliminate militias within and beyond the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) with Iranian demands to support these militias and expand their role. The ruling Coordination Framework (CF) appears to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating steps from a potential Trump administration before engaging in dialogue. Addressing Turkiye’s geopolitical expansion, particularly following the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria, will be a major challenge for Iraq in 2025. Existing security arrangements have strengthened Turkiye’s military presence inside Iraq, especially in Kurdish and Sunni areas. Ensuring sufficient cash flow to pay public sector salaries remains a critical issue for the Iraqi government. Baghdad’s economic policies are facing growing criticism, and it is highly likely that Prime Minister al-Sudani’s administration will expand borrowing and consider floating the dinar against the US dollar. Navigating relations with a second Trump administration will be one of Iraq’s most complex challenges, especially if Washington follows through on threats of increased economic and security pressure. – Emirates Policy Center | Iraq in the Face of 2025 Challenges: Potential Trajectories
Middle East
(UN News) Since the ceasefire began in Gaza on 19 January, “unparalleled progress” has been made in providing desperately needed aid to families across the devastated enclave, said UN agency for Palestine refugees, UNRWA, on Thursday. – Gaza: Despite challenges, UNRWA says ‘unparalleled progress’ made during ceasefire | UN News
(UN News) UN human rights chief Volker Türk on Thursday called for an end to the “abhorrent, dehumanizing narratives” that continue to hamper a positive outcome to the Middle East crisis. – Human Rights Council: Türk calls out ‘dehumanizing’ narratives on Gaza | UN News
NATO
(Justin Bronk – RUSI) This paper argues for greater mission specialisation among NATO’s European air forces to effectively deter and defeat potential Russian aggression. – The Case for Greater Mission Specialisation by NATO’s European Air Forces | Royal United Services Institute
North Korea – Russia
(Hyung-Jin Kim – Defense News) South Korea’s spy agency said Thursday that North Korea appears to have sent additional troops to Russia, after its soldiers deployed on the Russian-Ukraine fronts suffered heavy casualties. The National Intelligence Service said in a brief statement it was trying to determine exactly how many more troops North Korea has deployed to Russia. – North Korea appears to have sent more troops to aid Russia, Seoul says
Russia
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) On the third anniversary of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Western countries imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, banking institutions, and defense industry, reinforcing efforts to weaken its war capabilities. Western sanctions aim to curb Russia’s financial and military strength, primarily by restricting oil and gas revenues. Russia circumvents these measures using shadow fleets and illicit trade routes, prompting calls for stricter enforcement and broader financial restrictions. Russia exploits intermediaries in friendly nations such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to bypass sanctions, especially for military technologies and microelectronics. Russia shares military technology with allies such as Iran, North Korea, and the PRC, enhancing their weapons capabilities and raising security threats for the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. Russia continues aggressive military production plans for 2025 despite sanctions, aiming to manufacture millions of munitions and missiles. Stricter sanctions, better enforcement, and increased international coordination are crucial to mitigating the threats posed by Moscow’s war ambitions. – Sanctions Pressure on Russia is Crucial to Combat Russian War Capabilities – Jamestown
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow continues to leverage modern technology in its hybrid warfare against the West and in carrying out cyber-attacks despite sanctions. The Kremlin employs cutting-edge technologies to create an illusionary reality within Russia to promote propaganda about its war against Ukraine and has access to these technologies for developing advanced weaponry. Even without the ability to develop its own technologies, Russia still manages to utilize Western technologies for both hybrid and conventional warfare. – Russian IT Sector Effectively Serves the Kremlin Despite Sanctions – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – Tahe Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the Russian courts part of his repressive machine, transforming them from being potentially the last line of defense of Russians’ constitutional rights into agencies to suppress those rights and keep Russians from protesting. Putin has done so partly by restoring some of the more notorious aspects of Soviet-era jurisprudence, but he has succeeded by engaging in practices such as court- and even judge-shopping to ensure his opponents are punished regardless of their rights. The Kremlin leader has largely succeeded, but the fact that he has felt the need to take these steps demonstrates that there are judges within the Russian system who oppose what he is doing, which gives at least some hope for the future. – Putin’s Courts Playing Central Role in Keeping Russians Under His Thumb – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Maria Snegovaya, Max Bergmann – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Members of the U.S. government have recently made the point that three years into Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression, Ukraine has found itself in a helpless situation. U.S. President Donald Trump, for example, has insisted that he has “been watching [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky] for years . . . negotiate with no cards. He has no cards, and you get sick of it.” By Trump’s logic, it follows that the only solution is to somehow try and reach a peace plan with Putin even at the expense of multiple concessions to the Kremlin. In an effort to achieve the rushed settlement, Trump’s team of negotiators may even allegedly revisit the so-called Istanbul agreements proposed by the Russians at the start of the war in 2022. The Russian proposals during the Istanbul talks were highly unfavorable to Ukraine, including demands that Kyiv unilaterally abandon its NATO aspirations and announce permanent neutrality, refuse foreign weapons and hosting foreign military personnel, and reduce the size of its military and arms stockpiles. – Beyond Appeasement: What is Feasible for Ukraine
(Mykhailo Soldatenko – Lawfare) As a ceasefire or armistice between Ukraine and Russia looks increasingly realistic, Ukraine insists on reliable security guarantees to prevent the resumption of hostilities in the future and make it possible for the country to rebuild and develop. During his expected visit to the White House this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is planning to discuss this issue with President Trump in the context of a prospective Ukraine-U.S. minerals agreement. Indeed, a draft of the agreement provides that the U.S. support “Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.”. While making its case for the security guarantees, Ukrainian leadership appeals, among other things, to the failed 1994 Budapest Memorandum. As part of the agreement, Ukraine agreed to give up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union—the third-largest arsenal in the world as of 1991—and joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear state in exchange for security commitments from the U.S., U.K., and Russia regarding Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Indeed, Ukraine’s current attempt to ensure security guarantees resembles its relentless efforts in the 1990s. – Filling the Security Void of the Budapest Memorandum | Lawfare
(Aaron Stein – Foreign Policy Research Institute) US President Donald Trump is a radically transparent person but still manages to surprise. After promising for years that he would put pressure on Ukraine to agree with Russia to halt fighting, Trump has recently followed through. He directed his administration to extort the Ukrainian government for a natural resources agreement, ostensibly to “pay back” the American taxpayer for military assistance, and called on Europe to provide a military force to occupy the country to deter a Russian resumption of fighting after any agreement is reached. – The Future of the US in Europe: A Proposal – Foreign Policy Research Institute
(Ajey Lele – Manohar Parrikar Institute) History suggests that some wars fought between the 17th and 19th centuries were driven by the desire to control natural resources. The rise of industrialism spurred a struggle for raw materials. For instance, Chile engaged in armed conflict with Bolivia and Peru over control of guano mineral deposits during the War of the Pacific (1879–1884). In more recent times, the 1991 Gulf War often gets reflected as a conflict over resources. The United States justified initiation of war by invoking the Carter Doctrine, which stated that the US would use military force to defend its national interests in the Persian Gulf. However, today the US appears less inclined to fight wars directly over resources. Instead, it is leveraging ongoing conflicts to manage and secure access to vital natural resources. US President Donald Trump wants Ukraine to pay for the military support provided by the US to fight against Russia. In kind, he wants access to Ukraine’s Mineral Resources and Rare Earth Elements. – Ukraine’s Strategic Minerals: Trump’s War Alimony – MP-IDSA
Southern African Countries
(Emirates Policy Center) In 2024, several countries in the Southern African region – including Mauritius, Namibia, Botswana Mozambique and South Africa – held general elections that resulted in significant shifts in governance structures, both in terms of political party dynamics and presidential leadership. These power shifts are expected to have far-reaching implications, influencing the composition of the new ruling elites in Southern Africa and shaping domestic and foreign policies. This is particularly relevant given the shared characteristics among counties of this region. The wave of political change is likely to extend further, with general elections scheduled in 2025 in Malawi and Seychelles. Additionally, these shifts may influence governance trends across other African nations. While these changes present opportunities for countries in the Southern African region to make some progress on key policy issues, structural economic and political challenges persist. The growing competition among major global powers over mining resources and development corridors could further exacerbate these challenges. – Emirates Policy Center | Shifts in Governance Structure in Southern African Countries and their Internal and External Consequences
UK
(Paul Goodall – RUSI) Decarbonised technology could enable military advantage when used to generate the vast amounts of electricity demanded by the modern battlefield, and offers an opportunity for the British Army and UK industry to lead within NATO. – Achieving Military Advantage for the British Army Through Energy Transition | Royal United Services Institute
US
(Sarah A. Binder, Molly E. Reynolds, Kathryn Dunn Tenpas – Brookings) Article I of the U.S. Constitution defines legislative powers, indicating that Congress was intended to be the most influential branch of government, and it arguably was in America’s first century. After World War II, the influence of the courts grew gradually over time while congressional delegation of power expanded executive authority, thereby making it difficult for Congress to reclaim its influence. The Constitution relies on lawmakers to uphold its principles, but modern party loyalty often leads legislators to prioritize executive branch alignment over maintaining congressional power. – How do America’s founding principles apply to democracy today?
(Bill Frelick – Just Security) President Donald Trump closed America’s doors to refugees worldwide through an executive order on the first day of his second term on Jan. 20. But then he issued a new order just 18 days later to make one exception: for white Afrikaners from South Africa. The language of this order suggests it arises from Trump’s objection to various South African domestic and foreign policies, including a recently signed law on land expropriation, which the order describes as “racially discriminatory.” Trump’s favored adviser, Elon Musk, a White immigrant from South Africa, posted on his social media platform X four days before the executive order that South Africa has “racist ownership laws.” – The Racial Twist in Trump’s Cutoff of Refugee Admissions
(Lindsay P. Cohn – Lawfare) On the evening of Friday, Feb. 21, President Trump posted on Truth Social, thanking Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. CQ Brown Jr. for decades of service and announcing that he was nominating retired Lt. Gen. (John) Dan “Razin’” Caine of the U.S. Air Force as the new chairman. Within an hour, the AP reported that Brown—nominated by President Biden—had been fired. Caine, a retired three-star general, met Trump in Iraq during the president’s first term, where he reportedly made an impression. The position of chairman is a fixed term and is deliberately designed to overlap presidential election cycles, as military officers are nonpartisan and serve the state—not any particular leader. Although chairmen have occasionally been denied a traditional second term (John F. Kennedy removed Gen. Lyman Lemnitzer and George W. Bush did not reappoint Gen. Peter Pace), none has ever been fired, and previous removals did not happen as a consequence of a change in administration. While the president has the legal authority to remove the chairman, this action (along with others) should be seen as highly unusual and cause for concern. – Trump’s Military Purge Spells Trouble for Democracy and Defense | Lawfare
US – Europe
(Molly Carlough, Benjamin Harris, Abigail McGowan – Council on Foreign Relations) The start of U.S.-Russia talks on a possible agreement to end the war in Ukraine has spurred discussion about whether U.S. military forces in Europe will be reduced—a decision that would signal a significant shift in security on the continent. – Where Are U.S. Forces Deployed in Europe? | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Hong Kong – China
(Michael Schiffer, Anka Lee – Just Security) All too little noticed in the flurry of executive orders and chaos of the opening weeks of the Trump administration was a statement with potentially profound consequences sandwiched into the new 10 percent tariff imposed on China – that “the articles that are products of China” will “hereinafter… include products of Hong Kong.”. This insert, published in the Federal Register, represents a decision that, for the first time since Trump’s 2020 Executive Order on Hong Kong Normalization, implements tariff treatment of Hong Kong as indistinguishable from China, disregarding Hong Kong’s status as an autonomous territory. – Trump’s China Tariff Now Treats Hong Kong the Same as Mainland
US – Latin America
(Jennifer Scotland – RUSI) While Latin America has featured prominently in the new US administration’s foreign policy, the suspension of vital aid and censoring of official discussion on climate change are directly at odds with Trump’s stated security priorities in the region. – How Trump’s Environment and Aid Policies Undermine His Latin America Agenda | Royal United Services Institute
US – Panama
(Saurabh Mishra – Manohar Parrikar Institute) President Trump’s remarks of the Panama Canal tariff rates being exorbitantly high and “ridiculous” may be a reaction to the recent increases in the tariff rates announced by the Panama Canal authority. Trump’s articulations as regards Chinese role in Panama also indicate that the US is feeling insecure with the rise and pre-eminence of China in a country that it considers as her backyard and which was once treated as a protectorate. – Making Sense of President Trump’s Rhetoric on Panama Canal – MP-IDSA
Uyghurs – Thailand – China
(UN News) The UN human rights office (OHCHR) together with refugee agency, UNHCR, on Thursday strongly condemned Thailand’s deportation of 40 Uyghurs to China, calling it a serious violation of international law and the fundamental principle of non-refoulement. – UN agencies condemn Thailand’s deportation of Uyghurs to China | UN News
