From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Armenia-Azerbaijan, ASEAN, Australia, Eurasian Economic Union, European Union, Germany, Indo-Pacific, Islamic State, Middle East, Morocco, NATO-Russia, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Somalia, Sudan, Syria, UN Peacekeeping, US, US-China, US-Iraq
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Sossi Tatikyan – The Jamestown Foundation) Amid the ongoing peace process, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan published an op-ed on Armenia’s perspective where he suggested that Azerbaijan is attempting to find a justification for a potential military offensive against Armenia, proposing reciprocal arms control for stability. Armenia and Azerbaijan remain divided over third-country presence and legal disputes. Pashinyan considers withdrawing lawsuits conditionally, but Armenian civil society opposes it, citing accountability for ethnic displacement and Azerbaijan’s revisionist tactics. Azerbaijan’s “Western Azerbaijan” claims are seen as threatening Armenia’s sovereignty, fueling concerns of future conflict. Pashinyan urges de-escalation, emphasizing that conditions for peace already exist. – Armenia and Azerbaijan at Odds Over Peace Process – Jamestown
ASEAN
(Gatra Priyandita – The Strategist) As Malaysia assumes the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2025, the government wants to make its mark on the region’s cybersecurity cooperation framework. Malaysia is keen to develop the third iteration of the cybersecurity cooperation strategy, which will guide ASEAN’s collaborative efforts in cyberspace. But to be truly effective, cooperation must remain a multistakeholder affair. – ASEAN cyber norms need broad stakeholder engagement | The Strategist
Australia
(Jennifer Parker – ASPI The Strategist) China now fields the world’s largest navy, and last week’s rare foray into our exclusive economic zone should be a wake-up call for Australians. Our most critical economic and security interests travel by sea, and in a rapidly deteriorating strategic environment, we can’t afford complacency. It’s time for Australia to step up as a genuine maritime power. – With Chinese warships nearby, Australia needs to step up as a maritime power | The Strategist
Eurasian Economic Union
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) faces growing challenges in expanding its influence, as key neighboring states, including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, resist full membership. Russia’s geopolitical ambitions through the EAEU are hindered by competing regional forces, particularly the People’s Republic of China’s growing investment in Central Asia and Moldova’s shift towards European integration, limiting Moscow’s ability to consolidate power within the trade bloc. The EAEU remains a key geopolitical tool for Moscow, initially envisioned as an economic alliance but now struggling to maintain influence over neighboring states amid shifting alliances and economic concerns. – Eurasian Economic Union Struggles to Further Expand in Eurasia – Jamestown
European Union
(Mark Beeson – The Interpreter) The speech by US Vice President JD Vance at the recent Munich Security Conference delivered a blistering critique of the European project and its supposed failings. More important than the detail of the vice president’s tirade, perhaps, was the barely concealed contempt he displayed for the values and principles that have underpinned European cooperation for more than half a century. He also took the opportunity to snub outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz and meet with the leader of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which may help explain the latter’s dramatically increased popularity. – Two cheers for the European Union | Lowy Institute
Germany
(Linus Terhorst – RUSI) The German Security and Defence Industrial Strategy from December 2024 is a response to the war in Ukraine and the need to quickly equip the Bundeswehr to better standards and replenish its stockpiles. The strategy makes several proposals to achieve its objective of having a defence industry that can cope with ‘all challenges’ and that is ‘dynamic and scalable, responsive and resilient, competitive, innovative and adaptive’. These proposals warrant some attention, as boosting defence production is a pressing concern across Europe and the US. – Lessons on Boosting Production from the German Defence-Industrial Strategy | Royal United Services Institute
(Nicolai von Ondarza – Chatham House) The German election saw significant gains for the far right and has resulted in a fragmented parliament. But the election result may just bring about a stable German government able to lead Europe at a time of unprecedented security and economic challenges. The path towards forming such a government appears surprisingly clear at this stage. The centre-right CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz who will likely be the next German chancellor, won the most votes. As Merz begins the process of seeking coalition partners, the only politically viable two-party coalition would be between the CDU/CSU and the centre-left SPD. Together, these two parties dominated post-war German politics and formed three of the four Merkel governments. In the new Bundestag, they hold 328 of 630 seats and thus a slim absolute majority. – After German election win, can Merz deliver leadership at home and in Europe? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Indo – Pacific
(Michael MacArthur Bosack – The Interpreter) First, it was Japan that was negotiating Reciprocal Access Agreements (RAA) with partner nations such as Australia, the United Kingdom, and others. Now, the Philippines has followed suit with Visiting Forces Agreements (VFA), concluding several deals already and looking to add New Zealand to the list by the end of the year. Their respective government officials have indicated that these are essential to their national security, but it raises questions: how exactly are they essential, and what should observers make of all this? – The building blocks for security partnership in the Indo-Pacific | Lowy Institute
Islamic State
(The Soufan Center) Even as the Trump administration is signaling a desire to pull back from conflict zones and other global hot spots, the first several weeks of the president’s second term have witnessed multiple kinetic strikes against the Islamic State-Somalia (IS-S) branch. Among the most concerning developments and perhaps a driving force behind the Trump administration’s early efforts to attack the group aggressively, IS-S is more focused on planning and conducting external operations than on territorial expansion. IS-S effectively functions as the key logistical node in the group’s global network, where it helps administer the General Directorate of Provinces, which serves as a critical lynchpin that facilitates the movement of money, foreign fighters, and institutional knowledge in the form of experienced trainers and military advisors. The revenues made by IS-S have been funneled through the Al-Karrar office to other Africa-based IS branches as well as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) through various transaction mechanisms from hawala to cryptocurrencies. – Islamic State Somalia Remains a Potent Threat in the Horn of Africa and Beyond – The Soufan Center
Middle East
(The Soufan Center) Arab leaders are convening to finalize an Egyptian plan for postwar Gaza, developed to counter President Trump’s suggestions to displace Gaza’s population during its reconstruction. Trump has indicated he will defer to the Arab plan, judging his suggestions motivated regional leaders to address U.S. concerns by assuming responsibility for postwar Gaza. A core provision – and potential pitfall – of the Arab plan is the establishment of a governing body composed of technocrats aligned with neither Hamas nor the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority (PA). Critics assert the plan sidesteps Hamas’ refusal to disarm – a demand Israeli leaders consider a non-negotiable. – Arab Leaders Assemble Alternative to Trump’s Gaza Plan – The Soufan Center
(Sary Mumayiz, Michael Knights, Hamdi Malik – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The cessation of Houthi-Iraqi joint strikes on Israel does not mean that Houthi money-movers and trainers have gone home; more likely, they are now a permanent feature of Iraq and merit close scrutiny from counterterrorism analysts. – Update on Houthi Involvement in Iraq | The Washington Institute
(Brian Katulis – Middle East Institute) Remember the “Riviera of the Middle East” idea for the Gaza Strip? The shelf life of President Donald Trump’s “plan” to have the United States take control of the war-torn area and force millions of Palestinians to leave and never to return seemed to be just a few weeks. Or was it? As the mini-media frenzy around this provocative idea faded, Trump admitted that his notion is unlikely to become a reality. Speaking last Friday in a telephone interview with Fox News, Trump acknowledged that Egypt and Jordan had rejected his idea, saying, “I’ll tell you, the way to do it is my plan. I think that’s the plan that really works. But I’m not forcing it. I’m just going to sit back and recommend it.” At the same time, in typical Trump fashion, he kept the door open, asserting in the same interview, “They say they’re not going to accept. I say they will.”. Some analysts try to explain Trump’s words as an effort to provoke a new type of conversation and to break the mold — advising that we should all take them “seriously, not literally,” as journalist Salena Zito famously wrote when Trump first ran for president in 2016. Adding to the confusion, perhaps intentionally, the president posted a bizarre artificial intelligence-generated video promoting once again his “plan” for Gaza to be transformed into a beach resort, complete with a golden Trump statue, someone looking like Elon Musk eating hummus, and the current US and Israeli leaders hanging out on the beach. – Trump’s mixed messages and actions on the Arab-Israeli front | Middle East Institute
(UN News) UN human rights chief Volker Türk issued a strong appeal on Wednesday for the fragile ceasefire in Gaza to hold, amid delays to talks between Hamas and Israel on extending the truce into the second phase. – Human Rights Council: Gaza ceasefire must hold, Türk insists | UN News
Morocco
(Yasmine Zarhloule – Carnegie Middle East) The closure of the border between Morocco and Algeria disrupted smuggling networks in the former’s Eastern Region. Moroccan authorities have since striven to develop local infrastructure and create alternative employment there. While these initiatives have maintained stability, the challenges posed by climate change, particularly water scarcity, remain. This underscores the need for Morocco to more thoroughly integrate climate-change adaptation strategies into local and regional planning, while also embracing and protecting indigenous ancestral socioeconomic systems. – De-Peripheralizing Morocco’s East in the Face of Climate Change and Border Securitization | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
NATO – Russia
(Sidharth Kaushal, Juliana Suess – RUSI) Long-range precision strike capabilities and the ability to defend against them have an increasingly prominent place in Russian and NATO thinking about current and future warfare. This paper assesses the role of long-range strike on the modern battlefield and the relative competitive advantages of each side. The paper finds that the deterrent and competitive effects of long-range strike outweigh their impact in conflict. While militaries often do find ways to weather the impact of long-range strike (as well as interdiction from the air – which is separate but related), doing so is disproportionately costly. Moreover, narratives regarding the impact of strike have an independent effect on military behaviour. – Net Assessment of Russian and NATO Capabilities in a Modern Strike Campaign | Royal United Services Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(John C.K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukraine and the United States reached a landmark deal on rare earth elements (REEs), with Ukraine allocating proceeds from the future monetization of its mineral resources to fund domestic projects. Washington has emphasized securing REEs and critical minerals from Ukraine in exchange for U.S. aid. European media, however, has criticized the terms as exploitative, warning of long-term economic burdens for Ukraine. The United States has shifted to direct negotiations with Russia, excluding Ukraine, sparking diplomatic tensions. Ukraine and European allies insist on participation, casting doubt on negotiation outcomes. – U.S. Firms to Invest in Ukraine’s Rare Earth Elements in Return For Continued Aid – Jamestown
(Soufan Center) Put simply, Putin’s initial goal, in invading Ukraine in 2022, was to install a government that would be beholden to Moscow, turning Ukraine into a puppet state akin to Belarus. Revelations of the atrocities committed by Russian forces in Bucha cemented support for Ukraine in many Western capitals as a moral imperative rather than just a pragmatic policy to degrade an adversary. As the war enters its third year, President Zelensky’s gravest concern is not on the battlefield, but in Washington. President Trump’s primary focus appears to be reaching a deal regardless of the terms and its implications for Ukraine’s sovereignty and Europe’s long-term security. – Three Years of War: Ukraine Holds the Line—But Can It Hold Its Allies? – The Soufan Center
(Council on Foreign Relations) Liana Fix, CFR fellow for Europe, and Charles A. Kupchan, CFR senior fellow and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, sit down with James M. Lindsay on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to discuss Trump’s evolving policy toward Ukraine. – Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine, With Liana Fix and Charles A. Kupchan | Council on Foreign Relations
(Olga Tokariuk – Chatham House) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 caused a huge exodus of refugees, now estimated to number almost 7 million (one in six of the pre-war population). The longer the war continues, the fewer refugees are likely to return home. The resulting loss of human capital and capacity presents a serious problem for Ukraine both economically – in addition to directly war-related economic damage – and demographically. Without the return of substantial numbers of refugees, if and when the possibility exists for them to do so safely, Ukraine’s enormous reconstruction needs will be that much harder to meet. – Ukraine’s fight for its people | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Somalia
(UN News) The humanitarian situation in Somalia is worsening as drought, conflict and soaring food prices push millions toward extreme hunger, UN agencies warned on Wednesday. – Somalia faces escalating crisis amid drought, conflict and price hikes | UN News
Sudan
(UN News) As the war in Sudan approaches a second year, the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for the country has emphasized the need to re-double and coordinate efforts towards a peace agreement that respects national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity – and ending the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. – Sudan war: Any peace deal must respect national sovereignty, UN envoy says | UN News
(UN News) A senior UN aid official has called on the Security Council to ensure better protection for civilians in Sudan together with unhindered humanitarian access, as the brutal war between rival militaries approaches a second year. – Conflict has turned parts of Sudan ‘into a hellscape,’ Security Council hears | UN News
Syria
(Syria) UN humanitarians on Wednesday reported a scaling up of humanitarian aid into northwest Syria, even as hostilities continue to impact civilians and limit access in different parts of the country. – Syria: UN scales up aid deliveries as regional fighting continues | UN News
UN Peacekeeping
(UN News) Peacekeeping efforts by the United Nations are being challenged by growing disunity between Member States, the UN head of Peace Operations, Jean-Pierre Lacroix said in an interview with UN News, during the Conference for Women Peacekeepers in New Delhi. – Greatest threat to UN Peacekeeping is divisions between nations, says UN Peace Operations Chief | UN News
US
(David Lubin – Chatham House) By announcing his territorial ambitions in Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal, President Donald Trump seems to have breathed life back into the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. That was the first time the US asserted its right to unrestrained autonomy within the Western Hemisphere. President James Monroe declared that Washington would take any interference in the hemisphere by other great powers as an ‘unfriendly disposition toward the United States’. Are you listening, China? Hemispheric policy is nothing new to Trump’s circle. Project 2025, the Trump-friendly set of ideas about US governance published last year, envisaged ‘re-hemisphering’ supply chains as both a requirement of US economic security, and a way to support economic activity in ‘parts of the Americas in need of growth and stabilization’. John Bolton, in his capacity as National Security Advisor during Trump’s first term, made the point more bluntly in a 2019 speech when he declared that ‘the Monroe doctrine is alive and well’. – The economics of the new Monroe Doctrine | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – China
(Patricia M. Kim – Brookings) Donald Trump has always prided himself on being the ultimate dealmaker. His actions since taking office—engaging directly with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, and even floating the idea of a trilateral Cold War-style nuclear arms deal—underscore his preference for backroom negotiations with strongmen. Speculation is mounting about what kind of grand bargain Trump might try to strike with Xi. Will he pursue a Richard Nixon-style reset with Beijing? Could he agree to overlook Chinese aggression toward Taiwan in exchange for Beijing’s commitment to buy more American goods and to help reindustrialize America? Might he trade U.S. influence in Asia for China’s help in ending the war in Ukraine? – Trump, Xi, and the false hope of a grand bargain
US – Iraq
(The Soufan Center) The Trump administration is placing economic and diplomatic pressure on the Iraqi government to reduce its economic ties to Iran and weaken Iranian influence throughout the country. Trump officials are insisting Baghdad prevent the flow of U.S. dollars to Iran and crack down on alleged Iraqi cooperation with Iran’s illicit exportation of oil products. After prodding from the Trump administration, Iraq’s Arab and Kurdish leaders have finally restarted long-shuttered oil exports from Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq.
U.S. officials are using the threat of sanctions to compel Baghdad to rein in pro-Iranian armed groups and deny them supplies of Iranian-made sophisticated arms. – Trump Puts Pressure on Baghdad – The Soufan Center
