From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Afghanistan-Central Asia, Jordan-US, Mexico-US, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, South Africa, South Korea, Turkiye-Libya, UK-China, US, US-Central Asia, US-India
Afghanistan – Central Asia
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Afghanistan has completed over 80 percent of the second phase of the Qosh Tepa Canal—an irrigation project funded by the Taliban aimed at ensuring the country’s grain self-sufficiency by utilizing water from the Amu Darya River. The canal could divert up to 20 percent of the Amu Darya’s flow, significantly reducing water supply to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan as well as raising concerns over agricultural sustainability and potential regional conflicts due to worsening water shortages. Afghanistan is not part of existing Central Asian water-sharing agreements, increasing tensions with neighboring countries. Without international oversight or a formal management plan, disputes over water distribution could escalate into broader regional instability. – Central Asia Faces Potential Water Shortage as Afghanistan’s Canal Project Nears Completion – Jamestown
Jordan – US
(Ahmad Sharawi – Atlantic Council) Jordan’s King Abdullah II will visit Washington on February 11, marking the first official trip by an Arab leader to the United States during US President Donald Trump’s second term. The visit comes amid heightened regional tensions, particularly over Trump’s proposal to relocate Gazans to Jordan—an idea the king has firmly rejected as a “red line” since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023. – What to know about Jordanian King Abdullah’s visit to Washington – Atlantic Council
Mexico – US
(Vanessa Rubio-Márquez – Chatham House) In its first two weeks, the second Trump administration has enacted a barrage of executive orders and holds North America on the brink of an all-out trade war. Although President Trump’s phone call with President Claudia Sheinbaum, his Mexican counterpart, put the brakes (for now) on catastrophic 25 per cent blanket tariffs, Mexico must prepare itself for a tumultuous few years ahead. – Despite Trump’s threats, Mexico is of fundamental importance to the US economy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(John C.K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is reviving the Cold War-era Balaklava submarine base in Crimea as it faces frequent and precise maritime strikes from Ukrainian forces. The base’s outdated dimensions, however, prevent it from housing modern submarines, limiting its strategic value and forcing Russia to reposition key assets elsewhere. Ukraine has inflicted severe damage on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, despite its limited naval resources, sinking key vessels and forcing relocations. The closure of the Turkish Straits further isolates Russian warships, exposing their vulnerabilities. Russia’s struggles in the Black Sea highlight broader operational challenges, necessitating a reassessment of naval infrastructure and strategy. The Balaklava base’s revival underscores Russia’s commitment to defending Crimea, yet its long-term viability remains uncertain. – Russian Military Moves to Revive Secret Soviet Submarine Base – Jamestown
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Sources close to the Kremlin have indicated that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the so-called “special military operation,” is nearing its inevitable end as resources for further offensive actions are running low. Part of the radical nationalist segment of the Russian population refuses to accept negotiations and instead demands complete victory despite pro-government media claims. A more serious threat, however, may come from those who profit directly from the war, including sanctioned Russian oligarchs. The Kremlin may intensify repressions or ultimately decide to resume hostilities to appease potential discontent from war profiteers. In the absence of an external enemy, the Russian regime will be forced to look for new “internal enemies.” – Kremlin Could be Preparing to Pause Its Invasion of Ukraine – Jamestown
(Léonie Allard, Ian Brzezinski – Atlantic Council) While US President Donald Trump’s early foreign policy moves have been focused elsewhere in the world—from the Middle East to the Americas—Russia’s war in Ukraine is fast moving to the top of the agenda. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, is set to visit European capitals and Ukraine in the coming days. Trump has repeated his determination to “end the war” quickly and has even shifted his rhetoric regarding the conflict, calling Russia an adversary and threatening Russian President Vladimir Putin with more sanctions if he fails to cease his attack on Ukraine. Still, Trump has yet to articulate with clarity how he intends to end this war in a manner that is consistent with his pledge to promulgate a national security policy of peace through strength. – Now is Europe’s moment for decisive action on Ukraine – Atlantic Council
South Africa
(Sanusha Naidu – Stimson Center) This Q&A with South African expert Sanusha Naidu unpacks South Africa’s role in global governance through its membership in the BRICS and its presidency of the G-20. She currently serves as a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue. Through her insights, the piece explores how South Africa uses these international platforms to champion reform, elevate Africa’s voice, and advocate for a more inclusive global system. From the strategic priorities of BRICS expansion to leveraging the G-20 to advance development goals, Naidu sheds light on the challenges and opportunities shaping the future of multilateralism. – A Discussion on South Africa’s Strategic Role in the G20 and Global Governance Reform • Stimson Center
South Korea
(Yul Sohn, Won-Taek Kang – Council on Foreign Relations) The recent political crisis in South Korea highlights both the vulnerabilities and resilience of its democracy. Among countries that underwent the third wave of democratization in the late twentieth century, South Korea stood out as a relatively successful case of democratic consolidation. Peaceful power transitions through elections have become the norm, and financial and political crises have been addressed through established institutional mechanisms. – How Polarization Undermines Democracy in South Korea | Council of Councils
Turkiye – Libya
(Bilal Abdullah – Emirates Policy Center) In tandem with the Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement, Ankara has intensified its engagement with eastern Libyan authorities. This signals a shift in Turkiye’s approach to managing its interests in Libya, though it has not abandoned its traditional influence in western Libya. The trajectory of Turkish involvement in Libya hinges on several factors. These include the reactions of various stakeholders with vested interests in the Libyan and Syrian arenas, the extent to which the US administration is willing to permit an expanded Turkish role in Libya and Ankara’s ability to provide credible assurances to Libyan factions, fostering acceptance of its mediatory role. While Turkiye may achieve gains through engagement with eastern Libyan actors, these efforts are unlikely to create a transformative political shift, given the uncertain and cautious stance of the US administration on the Libyan issue. – Emirates Policy Center | Turkiye’s Shifting Role in Libya: What’s Next?
UK – China
(Dan Marks – RUSI) In energy, tension between China and the UK is being exploited to undermine support for the UK government’s strategy. Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove made the front page of The Times on 13 January with comments that the UK government’s target of producing 95% of the UK’s electricity using clean energy technologies ‘hands power to Beijing’. Dearlove said in an interview on Times Radio that net zero was ‘ideological’, before turning to ideology himself to argue that energy systems based on renewables are ‘short-sighted’ and create a ‘disordered energy system’, stating that dependence on nuclear power and gas should be considered as an alternative. – Pick Your Poison: China in the UK Energy System | Royal United Services Institute
US
(Gregory D. Koblentz – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) The US Senate is slated to vote on Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination to be the director of national intelligence this week, following last week’s party-line committee vote to support her confirmation. While Gabbard’s controversial views on Edward Snowden, the former government contractor who leaked reams of sensitive intelligence before fleeing to Moscow, dominated media coverage of the nomination hearing, there’s another area where the hearing exposed just how dramatically out of step she is with the national security community: the use of chemical weapons by President Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian civil war. – Tulsi Gabbard as US intelligence chief would undermine efforts against the spread of chemical and biological weapons – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
(Jessica McKenzie – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Last Monday, Elon Musk bragged that he “spent the weekend feeding USAID into the wood chipper.” Is the United States Environmental Protection Agency next? A three-prong assault by the Trump administration is already taking shape, aimed at staffing, funding, and regulations. According to a ProPublica analysis, more than 300 career employees at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have already left the agency since the election. This includes lawyers, engineers, biologists, toxicologists, emergency workers, and water and air quality experts. Last week, nearly 170 employees in the Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights were placed on paid administrative leave. Many others are being encouraged to resign or threatened with dismissals. – A former EPA assistant administrator on US environmental policy in the age of Musk and Trump – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
(Erik English – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) he leads are burrowing into the United States government, accessing highly secure information, firing federal employees, and attempting to shut down federal agencies. DOGE access to Office of Management and Budget databases and Treasury data, including the Medicare and Medicaid payment system, has already drawn lawsuits and court orders that temporarily limit those incursions. But perhaps the most immediately damaging of Musk’s actions so far is the rapid closure of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the decimation of America’s foreign aid sector. – How the shutdown of USAID will hurt Americans and empower foreign adversaries – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
US – Central Asia
(Andrew D’Anieri, Katherine Spencer – Atlantic Council) Central Asia has been far from US policymakers’ top priority in recent years. So it was significant on January 15 to see US Senator Steve Daines press the then-designate US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, on Central Asia policy during his Senate confirmation hearing. Daines said to Rubio that the new administration should support congressional efforts to finally end the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which prevents the United States from establishing permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) with the Central Asian states. What’s more, Rubio appeared to agree on the need for a repeal of Jackson-Vanik—which he called “an absurd relic of the past.” – How Trump can unlock new strategic economic opportunities in Central Asia – Atlantic Council
US – India
(William F. Wechsler – Atlantic Council) On Thursday US President Donald Trump will welcome Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House. Modi will be only the fourth foreign leader to visit 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue since Trump returned to office, following two meetings necessitated by an ongoing conflict (Israel and Jordan) and one with a decades-long military ally (Japan). Modi’s presence in these busy opening weeks reflects the administration’s appreciation of the strategic importance of the bilateral relationship to US global interests; it follows a meeting in Washington just the day after the inauguration between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and a call between Trump and Modi a few days later. – The continent-spanning win Trump can secure with Modi – Atlantic Council
