From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : ASEAN, Australia, China, China-Tibet, Democratic Republic of the Congo, European Union, Gaza, Indonesia, Japan-US, Rakhine State, Russia, Russia-Syria, Russia (Wagner Group)-Syria-Central African Republic-Mali, South Caucasus-Russia, Taiwan, US, US-Canada, US-Indo Pacific, US-Türkiye
ASEAN
(Sandra Seno-Alday – East Asia Forum) As extreme weather events become ever more frequent and destructive, the ASEAN region must strengthen infrastructure and enhance coordination to protect its global economic potential. Beyond dialogue, the region urgently needs to build climate-resilient infrastructures, develop sustainable industries and revise financial models in support of smallholder operators, with a higher emphasis on multilateral initiatives to combat shared climate risks. – Weathering the economic storms of the ASEAN climate | East Asia Forum
Australia
(Joanna Pradela, Alice Ridge – Lowy The Interpreter) The Trump administration has spent a week directing USAID and other government departments to remove any references to gender equality, women’s empowerment and LGBTQIA+ programs from their websites (and the USAID website now down altogether). So it was a great relief on Wednesday to see Australia launch its International Gender Equality Strategy. The strategy itself is a welcome signal of Australia’s intention to ensure that gender equality is a continuing part of its work through the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and to stand strong on the realisation of human rights for all. – As US retreats, Australia advances on gender equality | Lowy Institute
China
(Shi Youwei – FULCRUM) Chinese electric vehicle (EV) enterprises are gaining market share in Southeast Asia, but they risk encountering the fate of Chinese motorcycle enterprises in the 1990s. Then, market share reverted to Japanese manufacturers due to factors such as poor build quality. To sustain their market presence in the region, Chinese EV firms will need to improve in areas such as product quality and after-sales service. – Chinese EVs in Southeast Asia: More Sustainable Approach Needed | FULCRUM
China – Tibet
(Andrea Rezzonico – Council on Strategic Risks) Late last year, the Chinese government announced its approval of a massive dam project along the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. The dam is estimated to eventually generate more than three times the kilowatt hours as the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest hydroelectric power center. Beijing has not released any information regarding the technology to be utilized, the construction timeline, or other infrastructure details for the Medog Hydropower Station. – China’s Massive Hydropower Project in Tibet Illustrates Climate Security Risks – The Council on Strategic Risks
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(Eric Batonon – Norwegian Refugee Council) “The impact of the recent escalation across eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been devastating for the civilian population. We welcome the ceasefire, but stress that only a lasting peace can bring relief here and allow life-saving aid to reach those in desperate need. Many of those who have been displaced in the past month have already fled violence multiple times. Whole generations in eastern DRC have known nothing but conflict, and their needs have been utterly neglected. – Eastern DR Congo: Hundreds of thousands displaced in wave of extreme violence | NRC
European Union
(Veronica Anghel, Giuseppe Spatafora – EUISS) The year 2025 began with a new series of security challenges for Europe: uncertainty over the future of the transatlantic relationship, hybrid attacks across the continent, and the question of how to approach a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. In the face of these converging issues, how can EU policymakers effectively identify and prioritise the most significant threats to European interests? To answer this question, the EUISS partnered with the European University Institute (EUI), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS) to conduct a survey among European experts on the main risks to the Union in 2025. The surveyed experts are members of the EUISS, TEPSA, and EISS networks. 40% identified themselves as EU foreign policy experts, 98% hold at least a master’s degree, and nearly 60% hold a PhD. The Global Risks to the EU project, launched by the Robert Schuman Centre at the European University Institute, represents the first comprehensive, continent-wide assessment of global risk perceptions among European experts. – Global Risks to the EU: A blueprint to navigate the year ahead | European Union Institute for Security Studies
Gaza
(Larry Garber – Middle East Institute) President Donald Trump is basking in the glory of having contributed to the current cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which went into effect on Jan. 19, a day before his inauguration. Despite a few hiccups, the cease-fire has achieved its initial milestones: Hamas has freed 13 Israeli and five Thai hostages, while Israel has released more than 600 Palestinian prisoners, allowed more than 4,200 trucks carrying humanitarian assistance into Gaza, and is now permitting the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza. – Rebuilding Gaza will not be easy, but we must try | Middle East Institute
Indonesia
(A’an Suryana – FULCRUM) Construction is underway for Indonesia’s new national mosque in the country’s future capital, Nusantara (IKN), in East Kalimantan. Spanning 32,000 sq m, with a capacity to hold 60,000 worshippers, the mosque is set to replace Jakarta-based Istiqlal as the national mosque. The government reportedly plans to complete this project before Idul Fitri, which occurs at the end of March this year, so that the mosque can host Eid prayers. Initiated in November 2023, the large-scale project — which includes the mosque building and commercial and water retention areas — is funded by the state budget at a cost of 940 billion rupiah (US$590 million). These statistics are impressive, but the more important question is, can the new national mosque in IKN match the religious and symbolic significance of Istiqlal Mosque? – Indonesia’s New National Mosque: Big Shoes to Fill | FULCRUM
Japan – US
(Yuki Tatsumi – Stimson Center) On Friday February 7, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet United States President Donald Trump for the first time. He will be one of the first leaders, after Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, to have an in-person meeting since Trump was officially inaugurated on January 20, 2025. – Can Ishiba Rise to the Occasion? Japan’s Leader Visits Washington • Stimson Center
Rakhine State
(Htet Hlaing Win – East Asia Forum) The Arakan Army (AA) has captured significant territory in Rakhine State and is striving to establish itself as the legitimate government by providing public services and infrastructure. But the AA faces a legitimacy crisis due to its status as a rebel group, which hampers international recognition and disrupts trade, particularly with Bangladesh. The AA’s handling of the Rohingya refugee crisis is crucial, as its discriminatory actions and prejudices against the Rohingya undermine its efforts to gain positive international standing. The region is suffering from a severe humanitarian crisis, worsened by Cyclone Mocha and ongoing conflicts, necessitating extensive rebuilding efforts. To achieve legitimacy, the AA must overcome these governance and humanitarian challenges. – The Arakan Army battles for legitimacy | East Asia Forum
Russia
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is strengthening its national cyber defense by requiring commercial organizations to connect to a unified cybersecurity system. This initiative builds on the “Sovereign Internet” law to centralize cybersecurity control and mitigate rising cyber threats. Russia’s cybersecurity sector is facing talent shortages due to the brain drain following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, technological deficiencies, and slow replacement of Western IT (information technology) security solutions, hampering national security efforts. Developments in Russia’s cybersecurity programs are creating increased state control over digital communications. While aimed at preventing cyberattacks, the initiative aligns with the Kremlin’s broader objective of expanding digital surveillance. – Russia Ramps Up Cybersecurity Systems – Jamestown
Russia – Syria
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian military losses typically have affected Russia and its neighbors at home even more than Russian victories. Moscow is now worried that the ouster of Bashar al-Assad will influence the post-Soviet space and Muslim regions in Russia. To reduce these dangers, the Kremlin is playing down the fact that what has happened in Syria is a Russian loss as part of a broader effort to counter the potentially explosive impact of Syrian events on the post-Soviet space. The fall of Assad has had a significant impact on the countries of the South Caucasus despite the Kremlin downplaying efforts. It is beginning to affect both Central Asia and Muslim regions in the Russian Federation, but Moscow has not found effective ways to counter developments. – Overthrow of Syria’s Assad Echoes Across Post-Soviet Space, Worrying Moscow – Jamestown
Russia (Wagner Group) – Syria – Central African Republic – Mali
(Olivia Allison, Nick Connon, Antonio Giustozzi, James Pascall) This paper examines whether the Wagner Group was profitable under its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, what its business model meant for Russia and Russia’s geopolitical rivals in the recent past, and what the model could mean in the future. The paper’s main focus is on three case studies: Syria, the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali, but Wagner as a whole is also considered. To assess the group’s profitability, the paper aggregates various sources of financial information to understand Wagner’s financial model, its revenue sources and its costs. – Wagner’s Business Model in Syria and Africa: Profit and Patronage | Royal United Services Institute
South Caucasus – Russia
(Rahim Rahimov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s strategic interest in the Republic of Georgia has been reenergized as Tbilisi drifts away from the European path and abstains from joining Western sanctions against Russia. A fundamental factor in Moscow’s current view of Georgia is the former’s lack of effective leverage over Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, especially following the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the conflict zone. Any ceasefire or truce on the Ukrainian front, especially with potential Russian-Georgian normalization, could indefinitely protract the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty. –Russia Seeks to Reassert Influence in South Caucasus – Jamestown
Taiwan
(T.Y. Wang – East Asia Forum) Taiwan’s 2024 elections resulted in a fractured government, with the DPP securing the presidency but losing legislative control. The KMT–TPP coalition’s contentious actions and internal scandals add complexity to an already divided political landscape. Lai Ching-te’s administration faces mounting pressure amid Beijing’s military intimidation and a shifting US stance under the Trump presidency. As Taiwan grapples with these challenges, its political future hinges on carefully navigating domestic discord, cross-strait relations and international power plays. – A divided Taiwan faces cross-strait pressures | East Asia Forum
US
(Minos-Athanasios Karyotakis – Australian Institute for International Affairs) By examining other territorial name disputes worldwide, we know that renaming the Gulf of Mexico could potentially promote division, identity politics, and undemocratic practices. These changes could develop into a new and existential threat for the US. – From “Gulf of Mexico” to “Gulf of America”: More Division for the United States? – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann, Naoise McDonagh – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Donald Trump seems to be turning tariffs, which can serve as a legitimate tool to achieve the goals of fair trade and the protection of key national security interests, into an illegitimate tool of coercive statecraft. It is likely to undermine the global economic order and US soft-power influence across the world. – Trump’s Tariff War: Economic Coercion, Global Instability, and the Erosion of US Soft Power – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Council on Strategic Risks) The Trump Administration’s effort to try to shut down USAID and pause all foreign aid directly harms US national security, including by interrupting critical investments into resilience, adaptation, conflict prevention, and peacebuilding. In 2021, 79 senior national security leaders, including 8 retired 4-star generals and admirals, a former Director of National Intelligence, and a former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, signed the Challenge Accepted report, which argued that USAID investments in resilience and adaptation were critical to preventing instability and conflict and maintaining the US competitive edge with China. – USAID Provides Critical Benefits to US National Security – The Council on Strategic Risks
(Kyle Wilgus, Jackson du Pont, Dan Regan, Christopher East, John Moulton – Council on Strategic Risks) On January 20, 2025, the Trump administration assumed responsibility during one of the most pivotal windows for leadership and action on biodefense. The rapid pace of development of biotechnologies, an ever-evolving deliberate biological threat landscape, and rising incidence of infectious disease outbreaks will make responsible US biodefense actions, capabilities, policies, and strategies vital for domestic and global security. – Bolstering US Biodefense: Recommendations for the New Administration – The Council on Strategic Risks
(Larry Garber – Council on Foreign Relations) An overzealous effort at reforming the U.S. Agency for International Development will dismantle programs that enhance U.S. security, save lives, and boost United States’ image around the globe. – The Cost of the Trump Administration’s Foreign Aid Debacle | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Canada
(Asa McKercher – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canada signal a dramatic rupture in the decades-long economic and strategic partnership between the two countries, undermining trust and stability in North American trade. As Canada braces for potential economic retaliation, the broader message to US allies is clear—no relationship is immune from Trump’s zero-sum approach to global trade and diplomacy. – The Lamps Are Going Out All Over North America: Canada and Trump 2.0 – Australian Institute of International Affairs
US – Indo Pacific
(Chayanika Saxena – Vivekananda International Foundation) Donald Trump’s re-election to the White House was not entirely unexpected. If anything, it was much in line with the political trends the world witnessed in 2024, a bulk of which were marked by upheavals and change of guard. But while change is, indeed, the only constant, it also leaves much to speculation in a world mired in geopolitical crises. Trump’s predictable unpredictability comes across as a double-edged sword, especially in the context of the nebulous security structures in the Indo-Pacific Region, providing an occasion for reimagination and realignments while facing an existential challenge from a potential American reluctance to continue as a critical Indo-Pacific power. – Trump and the Indo-Pacific Security Structure – More of the Same? | Vivekananda International Foundation
US – Türkiye
(The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) In the second in a series of TRANSITION 2025 memos, Soner Cagaptay explores areas for U.S. partnership with Turkey in the Middle East and beyond. After a decade of malaise, relations between the two countries have lately recovered thanks to Turkish support for Sweden’s accession to NATO, granted in return for permission to buy U.S. F-16 fighter jets. The personal magnetism between President Trump and his counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, could smooth the way for further cooperation in military and economic areas, and also potentially help the new U.S. administration in Ukraine and Syria. But complex challenges remain, relating not only to the Syrian conflict—where Ankara and Washington backed different actors—but also to dealings with China and affinities in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. – Building on Momentum in U.S.-Turkey Relations | The Washington Institute
