From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Afghanistan-US, Azerbaijan-Georgia-Gulf Cooperation Council, European Union, Norway, Russia-Baltic-Arctic, Syria-European Union-Gulf Arab States, UK-European Union, Ukraine, US, US-Gaza Strip
Afghanistan – US
(Hameed Hakimi – Chatham House) Following the re-election of President Donald Trump in November last year, Afghanistan’s Taliban leadership expressed hopes of opening ‘a new chapter’ in relations with the US. Afghanistan has not featured strongly in the Trump administration’s policy announcements – but the signs so far are not promising. In the final hours of the Biden presidency, the Taliban exchanged two American citizens for a Taliban member jailed in the US. But the new Trump administration has already taken a much more aggressive stance: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said bounties could be placed on Taliban leaders to force the release of any remaining US hostages. Meanwhile, Trump has talked about retrieving weapons left behind during America’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan (a demand that Taliban spokesmen have dismissed). The 90-day halting of US international aid is already impacting humanitarian efforts in the country. – What the West can do now in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Azerbaijan – Georgia – Gulf Cooperation Council
(Emil Avdaliani – The Jamestown Foundation) The South Caucasus has grown increasingly close to the Middle East. One region that stands out is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which looks at the Caucasus as a transit and a land for investments. Tbilisi’s closer ties with the GCC present a valuable foreign tool to balance the existing Russian threat. For Azerbaijan, ties with the GCC similarly provide room for balancing between major regional actors. The growing ties with Georgia and Azerbaijan underscore the Gulf states’ strategic pivot toward Eurasia, driven by investments, trade opportunities, and connectivity projects that align with their long-term economic diversification goals. – Georgia and Azerbaijan Expand Engagement With Middle East – Jamestown
European Union
(Chiara Malaponti – European Council on Foreign Relations) At the World Economic Forum in Davos, US president Donald Trump once again turned up the heat on NATO members, demanding they spend 5% of their GDP on defence. But even as European governments scramble to assess the president’s good faith, the reality is that investment and spending are emerging as central to realising Europe’s foreign policy ambitions. The Draghi report, for example, argues that to remain competitive, the European Union must invest an additional €800bn annually using joint borrowing. If it does not meet this goal, the bloc risks paying a steeper price: its geopolitical clout. The strength of European foreign policy now seems tied not only to the persuasiveness of its values but to its ability to pragmatically mobilise resources. – Borrowed time: How defence spending can bridge the EU’s fiscal divide | ECFR
Norway
(Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik – European Council on Foreign Relations) We live in a tumultuous world. Wars are raging in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. International law is in peril. Classical power structures are being upended. The United Nations and other multilateral institutions are paralysed by historical low levels of trust. And while the current world is seemingly fractioning, global threats abound. Transborder aggression, climate change, pandemics, artificial intelligence, and the proliferation of biological and nuclear weapons are only some of many issues that demand decisive global action. What is an effective foreign policy in such a world? Norway has chosen a path based on an overarching analysis: That the only way to ensure real peace and stability and overcoming global threats, is to engage broadly, enhance international law and rejuvenate global institutions. – The Norwegian way: Why Oslo talks with everyone and still believes in multilateralism | ECFR
Russia – Baltic – Arctic
(Gabriella Gricius – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian hybrid attacks targeting critical undersea infrastructure (CUI), particularly fiber-optic cables, have surged in the Baltic and Arctic regions since 2021. These disruptions threaten essential communication channels and expose the vulnerabilities of Northern Europe’s infrastructure. Incidents in 2023 and 2024 involving Chinese vessels damaging Baltic subsea cables raise concerns over possible Russian-Chinese hybrid warfare collaboration despite no direct evidence confirming this, complicating Western deterrence efforts. Western responses are complicated by the difficulty of attributing attacks and Russia’s use of plausible deniability. Hybrid tactics enable Russia to destabilize a region without entering open conflict. – Hybrid Attacks Rise on Undersea Cables in Baltic and Arctic Regions – Jamestown
Syria – European Union – Gulf Arab States
(Emily Tasinato – European Council on Foreign Relations) Across the Middle East, states are vying to influence the political transition in Syria following the Assad regime’s collapse. Neighbouring Turkey is set to be especially influential. But the Gulf Arab states also have strong views about what should happen next. Amid this mêlée, Europeans are seeking to ensure an inclusive transition for Syria—one that puts the interests of Syrians first, allows refugees to return home and leads to a stable future for the country. To achieve this, Europeans must work with all regional partners. The existing Europe-Gulf relationship offers great potential to bring Syria the stability it deserves, but there is more Europeans can do to make the most of this opportunity. – All change: How Europeans and Gulf Arab states can promote Syria’s political transition | ECFR
UK – European Union
(Armida van Rij – Chatham House) UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer this week joined EU heads of government for a dinner in Brussels – the first British leader to do so since Brexit. On the menu: transatlantic relations and defence. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has further increased doubts about US commitment to European security and reignited European countries’ concerns about their ability to defend themselves. It has also complicated the response to these issues. Most EU countries rightfully want to keep the US engaged in European security. One way of doing so is by purchasing more American weapons. The other is by allowing third country participation in EU defence industrial programmes – something France broadly opposes. – To defend Europe, the UK–EU reset should prioritize defence industrial cooperation | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Ukraine
(Alexander Neuman – The Jamestown Foundation) Facing a critical manpower shortage, Ukraine has adopted a decentralized recruitment model, empowering top-performing units to handle their own recruitment, training, and deployment. This approach, known as military entrepreneurism, contrasts with traditional centralized conscription. Units such as the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade and the 414th Unmanned Aerial Systems Strike Regiment provide tailored roles, quality training, and well-equipped conditions, which have attracted volunteers and improved retention, contrasting with unpopular forced mobilization efforts. Ukraine’s shift towards unit-led recruitment is reshaping both its military and political landscape. Expanding this decentralized model across will be crucial in maintaining force cohesion and preventing further disparity between elite and regular units. – Military Entrepreneurism Fuels Direct Recruitment in Ukrainian Units – Jamestown
US
(Brookings) Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration has frozen U.S. foreign assistance, appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio as acting administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and announced a review of the agency’s activities. With USAID’s future unclear, Brookings experts weigh in on the implications of a shutdown or reorganization, for the United States and for the world. – The implications of a USAID shutdown
US – Gaza Strip
(Atlantic Council) “The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too.” During a press conference on Tuesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump proposed that the United States take control of the Palestinian territory and rebuild it. While the real-estate mogul-turned-president said that he envisions Gaza becoming “the Riviera of the Middle East,” Arab states and other countries quickly rejected the idea of direct US intervention, arguing that it would in effect force out Palestinians from the land and abandon the long-standing US commitment to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. – Experts react: Is the US really going to ‘take over’ the Gaza Strip? – Atlantic Council
