From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Afghanistan
(Douglas London, Javid Ahmad – Middle East Institute) At a July 2023 press conference, President Joe Biden somewhat angrily defended his record on the counterterrorist threat from Afghanistan: “Do you remember what I said about Afghanistan? I said al Qaeda would not be there. I said it wouldn’t be there. I said we’d get help from the Taliban. What’s happening now? What’s going on? Read your press. I was right.” Later, in January 2024, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West testified that “the Taliban’s sheltering of al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a safe house in Kabul was a flagrant violation of their security commitments,” but added that “since then, we assess that the Taliban have undertaken efforts to fulfill their security commitments with regard to al-Qa’ida.” West’s statements echoed September 2023 remarks made by Christy Abizaid, then director of the National Counterterrorism Center, that al-Qaeda “is at its historical nadir in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and its revival is unlikely.” – Navigating the shadows: Afghanistan’s terrorism landscape three years after the US withdrawal and its international implications | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Arctic
(Michael Byers – Centre for International Governance Innovation) Satellites support communications, navigation, security, search and rescue and scientific research across the Arctic. The number of satellites is growing quickly, creating opportunities for growth and development. However, the increased use of space also carries risks for national and regional governments, local communities, Indigenous organizations and companies. Satellites are vulnerable to system failures, deliberate attacks and natural forces such as solar storms. Redundancies of all kinds are needed to protect against these risks. For instance, ground-based navigational aids to aviation should be maintained, notwithstanding the cost-saving attractions of GPS. At the same time, satellites contribute to Arctic security through an enhanced understanding of what potential adversaries are doing — or not doing. One of the great geopolitical risks in the Arctic involves security dilemmas, where states feel compelled to build up their military capabilities in an escalating series of responses to suspected increases by others. Satellites help to prevent unnecessary escalations, accidents and arms races. – Outer Space and the Arctic: Connections, Opportunities, Challenges – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
China – Africa
(Samir Bhattacharya – East Asia Forum) China’s ambitious diplomacy and development initiatives face challenges in West Africa due to political instability and violence, which is jeopardising its investments and Beijing’s assertive image. The multi-billion-dollar Niger-Benin oil pipeline, a crucial project for China, has been delayed and disrupted by a military coup in Niger and regional conflicts. Despite mediation efforts, the pipeline’s future remains uncertain, impacting China’s energy security and diplomatic assertiveness in the region. – China’s mediation diplomacy hits a roadblock in Africa | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
China – Japan
(Mayuri Banerjee – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida triggered widespread discussions within the Chinese strategic community over the impending leadership transition in Japan. While China’s Foreign Ministry’s offered a muted response keeping in line with diplomatic protocols, active debate has been underway among foreign policy and strategic observers regarding the cause of the change of leadership, possible foreign policy orientation of a new Japanese government and the likely implication on China–Japan ties. – China’s Strategic Assessment of Japan | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
Emerging Technologies
(Jeff Schwartzentruber – Centre for International Governance Innovation) This is the year for artificial intelligence (AI) integration — it’s now embedded in nearly everything we do. AI systems increasingly control our environment through Internet of Things (IoT) devices and beyond. IoT devices connect our physical environments to the digital world, and more than 15 billion such devices are now connected worldwide. That number is expected to double by 2030. We are also interacting ever more naturally with AI through chatbots. – AI May Be a Powerful Tool, but It’s No Substitute for Cyber Experts – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
European Union
(Jacob Funk Kirkegaard – Bruegel) The Hungarian government has, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, consistently sought to delay or block European Union decisions on providing support for Kyiv. Last year, this was done in an attempt to force the rest of the EU to release budget funds for Hungary frozen over rule-of-law concerns – with the European Commission ultimately deciding to release funds. More recently, Hungary has obstructed funds over claims that it faces discrimination in Ukraine. – Has Hungarian obstructionism triggered greater EU fiscal integration? (bruegel.org)
(Armin Steinbach, Guntram B. Wolff – Bruegel) Europe is vulnerable to air attacks by both state and non-state actors. Russia has substantially increased its production of hypersonic missiles, missiles and drones, while European air defence capacities remain patchy with little improvement in coverage in recent years. – Financing European air defence through European Union debt (bruegel.org)
(Marco Buti, Marcello Messori – Bruegel) The significance of the report on the future of European competitiveness, drawn up by former Italian prime minister and European Central Bank governor Mario Draghi (Draghi, 2024), is that it offers a thorough diagnosis of the weaknesses and opportunities of the economic and institutional setting of the European Union. The report, published 9 September, rightly points out that, given the negative long-term demographic trends facing the EU and the lack of a common integrated policy on migration, the only driver of sustainable European growth is labour productivity, and mainly its elusive but crucial component represented by total factor productivity. – Draghi’s message: sharing economic sovereignty is hard but possible (bruegel.org)
(Zsolt Darvas, Lennard Welslau, Jeromin Zettelmeyer – Bruegel) Population ageing is putting pressure on the public debt-to-GDP ratios of European Union countries, both by raising net public expenditures and by lowering potential growth. To keep debt ratios under control and to comply with EU fiscal rules, EU countries will need to run sufficiently high structural primary balances – the difference between non-cyclical revenue and non-interest spending. – How demographic change will hit debt sustainability in European Union countries (bruegel.org)
Human Security
(Shravishtha Ajaykumar – Observer Research Foundation) Chemical weapons are weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that can impact human health and cause environmental damage. Throughout history, their use has not only resulted in widespread devastation but has also disproportionately harmed minority communities, who often bear the brunt of these horrific attacks due to social, political, and geographic vulnerabilities. While chemical weapons and their use are low probability, the impact is high and often focused on vulnerable communities, including women, children, those experiencing poverty and homelessness or marginalised in other ways, as we saw in the examples of chemical impact above. – Mitigating the impact of chemical weapons on vulnerable communities (orfonline.org)
India
(Satish Chandra – Vivekananda International Foundation) Any projection of the trajectory of India’s role in the world in the coming times demands first, an understanding of the current state of the world, and second, an awareness of the factors that are likely to influence its role. – India’s Role in The World Today | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
India – Gulf Cooperation Council
(Anil Trigunayat – Vivekananda International Foundation) On 9th September, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) held the first ever meeting of the Foreign Ministers in Riyadh, thereby institutionalizing the much-awaited dialogue and format which also attests to both sides attaching high importance to this critical partnership. Dr Jaishankar, Indian Minister of External Affairs also held bilateral meetings with his GCC counterparts from UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait with whom frequent meetings were held in a bilateral context during the past decade. – The First India-GCC Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue -Outcomes and Assessment | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
India – Pakistan
(Muhammad Saad Ul Haque – East Asia Forum) The India–Pakistan relationship has long been strained due to the Kashmir conflict. Both nations claim sovereignty over the region, and have engaged in wars and skirmishes over it. The conflict in Kashmir involves accusations of human rights violations by India and accusations of support for insurgencies by Pakistan. Resolving this issue is crucial for improved relations, but both sides have little interest in compromise. China’s involvement further complicates the situation. While India views China as a rival, Pakistan relies heavily on China as an economic and strategic partner. – Kashmir to remain a thorn in the side of India–Pakistan relations | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Indonesia
(Irine Hiraswari Gayatri, Dini Suryani – East Asia Forum) Nusantara, Indonesia’s ambitious new capital project, is set to advance national development but at a steep cost to Indigenous communities, and particularly Indigenous women. The project’s environmental impact, including deforestation and disruption of ecosystems, further endangers traditional knowledge and resources. Despite assurances from the Indonesian government, the lack of fair land acquisition processes and meaningful consultation highlights the need for more equitable and sustainable development practices that safeguard Indigenous rights. – Displaced Indigenous women bear the brunt of Indonesia’s capital city project | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Iraq
(Emirates Policy Center) After a 12-year boycott of the political class, it has become evident that Iraqi Shiite Marji’ Ali Al-Sistani, through his close associates, has recently criticized the ruling Coordination Framework (CF) and its affiliated militias, as well as key security and judicial institutions. Al-Sistani’s new position arises from concerns that pro-Iranian Shiite forces are monopolizing Iraqi political decision-making, seizing national resources and threatening the independence of the Shiite Marji’, and the country’s economic, social and security institutions. It is likely that Al-Sistani’s Marji’ will take active steps to reassert its political role and restore balance to Iraq’s political landscape. These steps could include public criticism to delegitimize certain parties or institutions, mobilizing the public in calculated directions and supporting the Sadr Movement’s (SM) participation in the upcoming parliamentary elections. – Emirates Policy Center | Al-Sistani Criticizes Militias: Pressure to Rebalance Iraq’s Political Landscape (epc.ae)
Kazakhstan
(Pravesh Kumar Gupta – Vivekananda International Foundation) Kazakhstan hosted the Fifth World Nomad Games (WNG) from September 7–13, 2024, in its capital city Astana. Since its inception in 2012, the World Nomad Games (WNG) have expanded into a notable platform showcasing the traditional sports of many nomadic cultures worldwide. More than just a sports event, WNG provides a significant opportunity for different nomadic cultures across the world to exchange their cultural values and heritage. The fifth edition of WNG, held in Kazakhstan, further expanded the scale and scope of the games. Approximately 2,800 participants from 89 countries participated, representing diverse cultures and traditions. The event included a variety of traditional nomadic sports, allowing players and spectators to immerse themselves in the rich legacy of nomadic cultures. In addition to traditional sports like long-distance horse racing and archery, the games celebrated Kazakh cuisine, traditional attire, and even the craft of epic storytelling. The aim is to conserve and safeguard steppe and nomadic cultures, which are increasingly dangerous due to modernization, globalization, and climate change. – The Fifth World Nomad Games in Kazakhstan: Embracing Tradition Through Sports | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
Middle East
(Johanna Moore, Carolyn Moorman, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Studiy of War) Lebanon: Israel has issued new security protocols for some of its northern communities in anticipation of intensifying conflict with Lebanese Hezbollah. The new measures are in response to indications that Hezbollah was preparing to launch rockets into areas. – Lebanon: The IDF reportedly exploited an “operational opportunity” in conducting its airstrike targeting the Hezbollah Radwan commanders in southern Beirut. CTP-ISW has previously observed that Israel appears to be exploiting disarray in Hezbollah in order to inflict further damage on the group. – Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have continued to threaten to intervene in an Israel-Hezbollah war. The militias likely seek to deter a major Israeli offensive into Lebanon but could still follow through on their threats in the event of intensifying conflict. – Iran Update, September 21, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Nuclear
(Ray Hughes – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Innovative small modular reactors, floating nuclear plants, and microreactors offer potential routes to decarbonization that many countries are embracing. However, these emerging technologies elevate concerns that wartime attacks could expose warfighters and civilians to nuclear fallout. The risk of such exposure could enable states or non-state actors to threaten nuclear consequences without violating the taboo against using nuclear weapons—weakening international resolve to intervene in conflicts. – Nuclear power: future energy solution or potential war target? – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
Pakistan – Afghanistan
(Puspa Kumari – Manohar Parrikar Institute) The Pakistan government announced a ban on cross-border travel with Afghanistan from November 2023. Residents of Chaman district in Pakistan protested against the government’s decree immediately after it was announced, which made it compulsory for people passing the Spin Boldak–Chaman crossing to produce visas and passports. So far, the Afghans and Pakistanis could cross the border at Spin Boldak showing their identity cards (Tazkira) alone. The Laghari (Labour) Union and the Laghari Traders Union have since been holding protests against the cross-border travel ban imposed by the Pakistan government. – Chaman–Spin Boldak Unrest: A Border Crisis Reignites | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Davit Gasparyan, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian forces conducted another successful drone strike against Russian missile and ammunition storage facilities as well as a mobile radar system in Russia overnight on September 20 to 21. – The Kremlin appears to be reorganizing Russia’s decentralized, regional volunteer recruitment campaigns into a federal effort, indicating that Russia is struggling to meet the manpower demands of its war in Ukraine despite previous claims that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast caused a spike in Russia’s volunteer recruitment. – The Russian military leadership and government are continuing to reduce the class of semi-independent Russian military innovators, specialists, and irregular commanders to advance force centralization objectives, maintain the offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, and compensate for personnel shortages. – Iran reportedly did not send mobile launchers for the Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles it recently supplied to Russia, likely due to a decision to prioritize sending additional missiles over bulky and easily replaceable launchers. – Russian officials have designated 47 countries as having opposing and dangerous moral attitudes to Russia, highlighting that the Kremlin is reviving a Soviet-era tactic and mindset that defines a clear ideological division in the world. – Russian milblogger analyses of Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to suggest that the Kremlin perceives Western commitment to Ukraine as feeble. – Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast. – Russian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Tortesk, and southwest of Donetsk City. – The Kremlin has not fully suppressed localized protests organized by wives of Russian mobilized servicemen since declaring partial mobilization on September 21, 2022. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Phillips P. O’Brien – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) There should have been a nuclear war by now—at least if the wargames and academic models of state behavior are to be believed. For the last two-and-a-half years, Ukraine, in its fight to protect its land and people, has repeatedly and in an escalatory fashion continued to flout the warnings of nuclear-armed Russia. In doing so, the Ukrainians have steadily done things that were ceonfidently claimed to be clear triggers for Russian nuclear weapons us. – The new red line: Why a prolonged conflict in Ukraine makes a nuclear attack more likely – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
Thailand
(Om Prakash Das – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Paetongtarn Shinawatra faces challenges in balancing diverse interests, navigating tensions between democratic forces and military-monarchy influences, and addressing the issues of economic and social inequalities. As the third Shinawatra family member to lead Thailand, she must balance reform with tradition while also facing legal challenges. – Challenges before Thailand’s New Prime Minister | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
Tunisia
(Fadil Aliriza – Middle East Institute) Before Tunisian voters have their say in the presidential election on Oct. 6, state institutions have already had theirs. The security services, judicial authorities, and the High Independent Electoral Authority (ISIE) have either obstructed or officially barred over a dozen potential candidates from running. Of the three eligible candidates officially approved by the ISIE, only President Kais Saied and former Saied supporter Zouhair Maghzaoui remain outside of prison. Candidate Ayachi Zammel was arrested on Sept. 6. Many other potential candidates attempted to run from prison or were jailed for alleged technical violations of election laws. By restricting the list of potential candidates effectively to two, state institutions have embraced their historically paternalistic, modernizing role toward a distrusted citizenry. – Excluded candidates, marginalized dissent before Tunisia’s presidential elections | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
United Arab Emirates – USA
(Simon Henderson, Elizabeth Dent – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) On September 23, President Muhammad bin Zayed al-Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates arrives in Washington for a landmark U.S. trip—his first official visit since 2017 and the first-ever White House meeting for a sitting Emirati president. As such, the trip represents an historic event for the bilateral relationship even before it starts. Yet the import of the discussions themselves will depend on how the two partners address a bevy of sensitive bilateral issues at a time of regional crisis on multiple fronts. – MbZ Visits Washington: Meeting Agendas and Regional Implications | The Washington Institute
USA
(François Diaz-Maurin, John Mecklin – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) The US presidential race is entering its final weeks after a turbulent campaign that has included rhetorical drama, dramatic debates, the late withdrawal of a sitting president, and two assassination attempts. The economy, immigration, and abortion have taken center stage as the issues that the candidates—Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former president Donald Trump—and US media outlets have emphasized. The existential threat of nuclear war has received only brief and tangential attention. – The experts comment: Key nuclear questions that the US presidential candidates should answer – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
