Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa
(Liam Karr – Institute for the Study of War) Tuareg insurgents with likely ties to the Tuareg separatist rebel coalition and al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate repelled a Malian-Russian offensive in northern Mali in the deadliest engagement for Russian forces since they arrived in Mali in 2021. The heavy casualties likely have prompted Malian and Russian forces to reconsider how, or if, they can address significant internal challenges to reestablish government control along the border. Russia is highly unlikely to decrease its presence in Mali despite the losses because of the Kremlin’s strategic interests in Mali and the wider Sahel.
(Katie Kuschminder, Davide Bruscoli, Andrew Pinney, Chris Barnett, Michael Loevinsohn, and Alex Thomson – Migration Policy Institute) Increasing land and sea controls and conflicts along key migration routes from East Africa have made migration from this region more dangerous. Many migrants headed for Europe, the Middle East, or southern Africa have become stranded in transit countries such as Libya, Djibouti, or Tanzania, making them highly vulnerable to being abused, deprived of their rights, or subjected to what multiple organizations have described as crimes against humanity. For reasons beyond their control, these stranded migrants cannot continue on their journey, are unable to turn back, and are stuck in potentially dangerous situations where they may be assaulted, kidnapped, or even die.
Article: Migration Interrupted: Can Stranded Migra.. | migrationpolicy.org
Asia
(Steven Goldfinch – Center for Global Development) Internal displacement in the context of climate change and disasters is now recognized as a development issue with humanitarian consequences. As countries gain a greater understanding of the underlying drivers of displacement, and the corrosive effect it has on development outcomes, re-positioning public policy will be critical in prevention and solutions. To implement these responses, greater volumes of development financing is required. In the absence of dedicated instruments or resources to respond to displacement, utilizing existing sources of development finance, including climate adaptation finance, offers an important stream. This paper looks at the current public policy approaches to displacement across Asia and the Pacific, provides insights into selected country approaches, and explores the role of existing development finance, including the role of climate financial intermediary funds, in reducing the drivers of displacement.
Australia
(Mick Ryan – Lowy The Interpreter) In its 2024 National Defence Strategy, the Australian government outlined a requirement to hold adversaries at greater risk at an increased distance from Australian territory – that is, the Australian Defence Force was given the task of developing the capability to hit targets at great distances. In the accompanying Integrated Investment program, “targeting and long-range strike” was allocated 8% of capability investment in the decade to 2034.
What Australia can learn from Ukraine’s long-range strike weapons | Lowy Institute
Autonomous Weapons Systems
(Alexander Hoppenbrouwers – RUSI) International efforts to regulate autonomous weapons systems may soon change drastically. The slow pace of progress in current discussions has led to dissatisfaction among participants from civil society and states hoping to curb the use of autonomous weapons, especially small and middle-sized Global South and European countries like Brazil and Ireland. New initiatives have now been started to breathe life into ongoing efforts. The Vienna Conference on Autonomous Weapons Systems, hosted by Austria from 29–30 April, is one such initiative. During the Conference, Austria gauged the interest of other states in breaking drastically with existing discussions and moving ahead with drafting new legally binding measures. Another disappointing year in the current track of negotiations may push a large group of states towards Austria’s position.
Central Asia
(Galiya Ibragimova – Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center) The pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and an anti-migrant crackdown mean Russia is an increasingly unattractive destination for Central Asian laborers. Some are looking instead to other Asian and European countries.
China
(Opangmeren Jamir – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Chinese President Xi Jinping propounded the idea of “new quality productive forces” in September 2023 as a blueprint for future Chinese economic development during a tour in Heilongjiang province.
(Neil Thomas – Asia Society Policy Institute) Xi Jinping is sticking to his guns. As general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), he presided over a Third Plenum that doubled down on his existing agenda, ignoring calls by many economists for market reforms, consumer stimulus, and demand-side growth.
Why Did Xi Jinping Stick to His Guns at China’s Third Plenum? | Asia Society
(Asia Society Policy Institute) China’s economy registered an average annual growth of 9.5% from the start of reforms in 1978 until 2019. Throughout this period, economic performance was a key indicator of China’s success and served as a critical pillar of the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy. Over the past five years, however, China’s leadership has taken an ideological turn under Xi Jinping, and economic growth has no longer been a top priority.
Decoding China’s Economic Slowdown | Asia Society
China – Africa
(Cobus van Staden – Stimson Center) Terrorism in Africa is escalating, with violent nonstate actors increasingly targeting civilians. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project estimates a rise in violent attacks against noncombatants on the continent from 381 in 2015 to 7,108 in 2020, with fatalities rising from 1,394 to 12,519. A prominent subset of these attacks has targeted Chinese-led projects and businesses on the continent.
Chinese Counterterrorism in Africa • Stimson Center
China – Australia
(Muyi Yang – Asia Society Policy Institute) The Australia-China relationship has stabilised after years of geopolitical and trade turbulence. This lays the groundwork for further cooperation, including through joint initiatives in Asia. A significant opportunity lies in Southeast Asia’s push towards an electrified future. Almost all countries in the region have committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions, and electrifying the end-user sectors, including transport, is a crucial strategy in this effort.
China and Australia Can Team Up to Boost ASEAN’s Energy Transition | Asia Society
Emerging Technologies
(Joseph S. Nye – ASPI The Strategist) Humans are a tool-making species, but can we control the tools we make? When Robert Oppenheimer and other physicists developed the first nuclear fission weapon in the 1940s, they worried that their invention might destroy humanity. Thus far, it has not, but controlling nuclear weapons has been a persistent challenge ever since. Now, many scientists see artificial intelligence—algorithms and software that enable machines to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence—as an equally transformational tool. Like previous general-purpose technologies, AI has enormous potential for good and evil. In cancer research, it can sort through and summarise more studies in a few minutes than a human team can do in months. Likewise, it can reliably predict patterns of protein folds that would take human researchers many years to uncover.
AI and national security | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Susan Ariel Aaronson – Centre for International Governance Innovation) Is artificial intelligence (AI) the new steel? Of course, steel and AI could not be more different. Steel is a component — a manufactured alloy used to create a wide range of products, from tanks to toasters. In contrast, AI is a machine-based system that infers, from the input it receives, how to generate outputs such as predictions, content, recommendations or decisions that can influence physical or virtual environments.
(Nikki Goth Itoi – Stanford HAI) If AI agents could play an active role in our human social life rather than simply operating in the background, would that be desirable? The answer may depend on your cultural perspective. When a team of Stanford researchers applied cultural psychology theory to study what people want from AI, they found clear associations between the cultural models of agency that are common in cultural contexts and the type of AI that is considered ideal.
How Culture Shapes What People Want from AI (stanford.edu)
(Prabha Kannan – Stanford HAI) Earlier this year, a class action lawsuit was filed against the Navy Federal Credit Union, the nation’s largest, alleging that it “systematically and intentionally discriminates against minority borrowers across the United States.” The lawsuit claims that 52% of Black borrowers were denied loans, compared with just 23% of white borrowers. This phenomenon, often referred to as “Banking While Black,” is something civil rights activists have been asserting for years, and is a concern that has not been adequately addressed by the algorithmic decision-making systems that many of these financial institutions have implemented to screen loan applicants. In fact, studies point to a loan rejection likelihood of 80% for Black Americans when using these AI systems.
AI’s Impact on Black Americans (stanford.edu)
European Union
(Camille Le Coz, Meghan Benton – Migration Policy Institute) Three major elections in June and July reshuffled the European political scene, with possible effects on the direction of migration policymaking. Across the continent, the far right achieved major victories in the European elections, especially in France, Germany, and Italy. The UK general election, by contrast, saw the Labour party claim power for the first time in 14 years. And after a strong showing by the far-right National Rally during the first round of legislative elections in France, the left coalition was a surprise winner in the second, definitive round—though no group ended up with enough seats to form a government outright.
The Door Opens for a New Chapter in European Coope.. | migrationpolicy.org
(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) The European Parliament (EP) elections concluded on 9 June, with the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) remaining the largest group. However, only a few weeks later, the EP saw the launch of a new group on the horizon. An EP group must fulfil the criteria of at least 23 Members of European Parliament (MEPs) from at least seven EU member states. The far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) created by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on 30 June, which debuted in the EP’s plenary session on 16 July, has managed to grow way past this threshold. Its members now include far-right parties from at least 12 EU countries that have gained popularity through routine exploitation of voter grievances in areas of immigration and increased costs of living in their home states.
The European Parliament’s new kid on the block (orfonline.org)
European Union – China
(Dominique Fraser – Asia Society Policy Institute) Murmurs of trade war are getting louder. Not just between China and the United States should Donald Trump be re-elected, but also between China and Europe. Now more than ever it’s important for Europe to speak with one voice on global affairs. But recent elections make this much less likely. We should expect a Europe that is more divided and less coherent on foreign policy issues, including ones that are important to Australia, most notably policy towards China.
A Weaker Europe on China – At the Worst Time | Asia Society
Georgia
(Caroline Rabideau – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Two months after the Georgian parliament, controlled by the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, passed its controversial Foreign Agents Law, the US State Department has again responded. Washington, which sees the legislation as yet another of Tbilisi’s recent anti-democratic steps, is pausing $95 million in assistance. The law, which mirrors a Russian statute, requires nongovernmental organizations and media outlets to register funding from international sources. Those that receive such funding would be labeled “foreign agents”.
Assistance on Hold | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Global Governance
(Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) On May 1, Laurel Baker sat down with Rose Gottemoeller, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO, chief US negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and accomplished lecturer. The interview covered the current nuclear threat matrix, including insights on the effects of emerging technologies on strategic stability; Russian and Chinese nuclear challenges; and lessons learned from high-stakes arms control negotiations.
India
(Gautam Chikermane, Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundation) The lack of a grand strategy in India’s statecraft is expressing itself through poor thought-craft. As if the military India-China border dispute and India’s US$85 billion trade deficit with the dragon were not enough, one advisory arm of the government is now pushing the idea of inviting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from a nation that has made its strategic hostility against India clear on four counts: First, its unending lust to grab Indian territory; this is in tune with its routine territory-grabbing gambits, the latest but certainly not the last being the confrontations in the South China Sea region that have the potential to turn into conflicts.
India’s thought-craft needs to be in tune with its statecraft (orfonline.org)
(Arjanvir Singh – Observer Research Foundation) Home to four global biodiversity hotspots and one of 17 ‘megadiverse countries,’ India’s forests are responsible for 7-8 percent of all recorded fauna species and hold massive cultural and historical significance. These forests, however, are experiencing extreme biodiversity loss. A key driver of this has been India’s road infrastructure. Covering over 6,600,000 kilometres, the linear nature of which has massive negative effects on wildlife abundance.
Paving the way: Mitigating the environmental cost of road infrastructure (orfonline.org)
(Karl Sauvant – East Asia Forum) At the WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference, three-quarters of the members, mainly developing nations, advocated for the integration of a new Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA) that focuses on improving the quality and predictability of regulatory frameworks relating to foreign direct investments and investment promotion. Despite opposition from India, based on an argument of a lack of a mandate for the WTO to deal with investment matters and potential fragmentation of the multilateral trading system, proponents argue that the IFDA presents an opportunity to enhance investment climates, attract FDI and offer significant benefits, especially for smaller developing countries and least-developed countries, while also strengthening India’s own global standing if it supports its adoption.
India should support the WTO Investment Facilitation Agreement | East Asia Forum
(Harsh V. Pant, Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) The full budget for the current financial year that was presented last week — it is also the first budget in the third term of the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi — underlines some key trends in the trajectory of Indian foreign policy. It is no secret that despite India’s growing global clout and ambitions, the budget allocated to the ministry of external affairs (MEA) has consistently remained below 1% of the overall budget. However, with a 23% growth in the budget estimate when compared to that of last year, this budget has seen the highest-ever allocation for the MEA worth ₹22,155 crore. With a significant focus on special diplomatic expenditure, guarantee redemption funds, embassies and missions, and assistance to neighbours, the budget places India’s foreign policy on the right track. That said, several structural issues persist.
Budget underscores India’s foreign policy aspirations (orfonline.org)
India – China
(Harsh V. Pant, Sayantan Haldar – Observer Research Foundation) The week gone by has been a busy period for India in the Indo-Pacific. India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, attended the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Laos and the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Japan. Jaishankar’s visit to Laos also featured a bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, following their last meeting at Astana earlier this year. The context for Jaishankar’s visit was set by India’s enduring pushback against China in key arenas of its interest. Arguably, China remains the pre-eminent concern for India’s national security planners. India’s China challenge is multipronged, with unresolved border conflict along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as well as Beijing’s expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean. China’s more recent overtures in the Indo-Pacific, especially in the South China Sea region, have also compelled India’s Quad partners and several Southeast Asian countries to intensify measures to counterbalance Beijing. Thus, the China question was a natural focal point for Jaishankar during both Laos and Japan visits.
India Is Turning Up The Heat On China – And Not Just In Its Neighbourhood (orfonline.org)
India – Estonia
(Sameer Patil, Aneesh Parnerkar – Observer Research Foundation) In an increasingly interconnected world, technology and cybersecurity cooperation have emerged as central concerns for nations worldwide. India, the world’s largest digital democracy and a leader in the Information Technology sector, has made significant strides in fortifying its digital infrastructure and securing its cyberspace. Estonia, one of the world’s most digitally advanced countries, has seen this success and now seeks to collaborate with India.
The untapped potential of India-Estonia cyber cooperation (orfonline.org)
India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)
(Prithvi Gupta – Observer Research Foundation) The Red Sea supply chain crisis, which began at the beginning of this year and continued into the mid-year, is expected to turn into a long-term crisis as the Israel-Hamas conflict rages on. The Iran-backed Houthis continue to terrorise the Red Sea, causing the Egyptian government to halt shipping through the Suez Canal, a critical maritime node in the global web of sea lanes of communication, through which 12 percent of global trade and 30 percent of global container traffic traverses annually. Moreover, it is the shortest route from Asia to Europe at a travel time of 12-15 days as compared to the second best alternative, the Cape of Good Hope route, which takes 35 days.
Bolstering economic connectivity along the IMEC (orfonline.org)
India and Thailand
(Janjira Sombatpoonsiri, Sangeeta Mahapatra – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Across the world, governments and Big Tech companies have diverged on how social media platforms should moderate political content and who gets the final say. While numerous studies on platform governance and content moderation have drawn on findings from relatively liberal contexts such as the United States and Western Europe, major platforms also operate in illiberal contexts in which governments exert undue pressure to restrict media freedom and crack down on critics. This paper compares two contexts with different degrees of illiberality: India and Thailand. Through desk research and interviews with key stakeholders, it analyzes how the Indian and Thai governments have used legal, economic, and political forms of coercive influence to shape platforms’ moderation of political content. Further, the paper identifies major types of coercive influence that may explain why platforms comply or do not comply with government demands. The analysis finds that India’s government under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been able to exercise greater leverage than the Thai government over social media content regulation because of India’s large market size and regulatory measures that give the government sweeping powers over tech platforms.
Indonesia
(Alldo Fellix Januardy, Agata Jacqueline Paramesvari – Lowy The Interpreter) Indonesia’s diaspora is estimated at about six million people worldwide, yet it has not historically been seen as a boon for the country. The Indonesian government wants to change that – aiming to stem brain drain and attract top talent from its pool of people with ties abroad. But a recent offer of citizenship to children of mixed-nationality marriages has been met with scepticism. In the last two years, only 111 applicants have taken up the offer of naturalisation.
Nationalism vs globalism: Making the case for Indonesian dual citizenship | Lowy Institute
Italy – Indo Pacific
(Alessio Patalano – RUSI) The recent meeting linking Italy, the UK and Japan through the Global Combat Air Programme, alongside the participation of the Cavour Carrier Strike Group in Exercise Pitch Black, showcase a country with growing links to the Indo-Pacific and the will to act upon them.
Italy: The Globally Connected Mediterranean Power? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Japan
(Yuqing Xing – East Asia Forum) Due to shocks like the US–China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan is reconfiguring its global value chains, shifting away from reliance on China and investing heavily in domestic and Southeast Asian production. Teaming up with the United States and offering subsidies to promote strategic industries, Japan aims to re-industrialise, regain economic momentum and build more resilient supply chains, mitigating the risks of unstable international relations and securing critical materials and infrastructure.
Japan’s plan to restructure global supply chains | East Asia Forum
Japan – Brazil
(Tawanda Sachikonye – East Asia Forum) Japan’s engagement with Brazil, including a May 2024 visit by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, underscores Japan’s prioritisation of its Global South strategy. The longstanding Japan–Brazil partnership has been reinvigorated following the return of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to the Brazilian presidency. Despite differing visions for the ideal international rules-based order, Japan and Brazil’s shared commitment to UN and WTO reform and multilateralism will enable effective collaboration.
Japan’s Global South strategy reaches new heights with Brazil | East Asia Forum
Japan – Indo Pacific
(Pratnashree Basu – Observer Research Foundation) Since being initiated by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally in 2016, Tokyo’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision has become the preferred framework for diplomatic engagement among like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific. This paper undertakes an assessment of FOIP. The motivation is threefold: first, it creates an understanding of Tokyo’s vision of maintaining a stable global order; second, because FOIP has become inclusive—it is subscribed to by many countries and it has been adjusted variously based on regional aspirations and sensitivities; and third, with Japan on the path to reform its pacifist ethos and assume a greater global role, it is vital to evaluate the philosophy behind FOIP.
Order Through Practice: Assessing Tokyo’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision (orfonline.org)
Kenya
(Fergus Kell – Chatham House) Protests led by Kenya’s ‘Gen Z’ population continue to exert pressure on President William Ruto as he approaches the end of his second year in office. Demonstrations began in June, initially targeted at austerity-led tax increases but swiftly expanded to address widening societal inequality and perceived government apathy. Popular anger at brazen public displays of wealth among Kenya’s political elite and a president seen as focused more on his international profile than domestic challenges has been further fuelled by a state security response that has seen at least 50 demonstrators killed.
Malaysia – BRICS
(Shankaran Nambiar – Lowy The Interpreter) Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia’s prime minister, is known to be bold. Anwar’s decision to join BRICS, with Malaysia this week formally submitting its application, is in keeping with his determination to pursue a “fiercely independent” foreign policy. True, he chose to announce the intention to join the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa when China’s Li Qiang visited Malaysia in June, but it was not a surprising declaration. Anwar has long been advocating issues that lie at the core of BRICS’s thinking. If the move was supposed to signal an interest in forging stronger relations with China, there are other ways in which Anwar could have acted.
Will Malaysia build ASEAN with BRICS? | Lowy Institute
Melanesia
(April A. Herlevi – The National Bureau of Asian Research) This report explores key security issues in Melanesia from the perspectives of both regional and U.S. experts. Collectively, the essays examine Melanesia’s unique security challenges; assess the impact of strategic competition on countries, governments, and communities; and explore options for how Melanesian nations can manage increased attention from external actors.
Mexico
(Manuel Orozco, Patrick Springer – The Dialogue. Leadership for the Americas) Over the past few years, Mexicans have sent money back home to their families, friends, and others. Between 2017 to 2022, remittances sent to Mexico from the US have experienced double-digit growth, and during pandemic times (2020-2022) they nearly doubled in absolute numbers to 41 percent. In 2022, remittance volume reached a 20 year high at nearly US$59 billion. In 2023, over US$63 billion was remitted representing a growth rate of eight percent year over year (YoY). While remittance growth rates are showing signs of deceleration, volume is estimated to reach over US$65 billion by the end of 2024.
Sending Money to Mexico: Slowed Growth in 2024 – The Dialogue
Middle East
(Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Katherine Wells, Annika Ganzeveld, Siddhant Kishore, Alexandra Braverman, Ria Reddy, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Iran: Iran and the Axis of Resistance are messaging that they will conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel killing several Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent days – Iran is likely now planning for its next attack to establish deterrence with Israel while still avoiding a large-scale war. One of the most dangerous but increasingly likely scenarios is that Iran and the Axis of Resistance launch a combined, large-scale drone and missile attack – Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah warned of an “inevitable” retaliation against Israel in response to Israel killing senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr – Gaza Strip: The IDF confirmed that it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, in an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone.
Iran Update, August 1, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Riley McCabe – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s political wing, was killed by an explosion in his guesthouse in the Iranian capital of Tehran on July 31, 2024. Iran and Hamas blamed Israel for the killing and vowed revenge. Haniyeh’s death highlights the uncertain impact of high-profile killings of suspected terrorists. On one hand, the assassination in Tehran could trigger further escalation into a regional war involving Iran and its proxies. On the other, Haniyeh’s death delivers the Israeli government an important political victory that could open the door to reducing military operations in Gaza on its own terms.
Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination: Escalation or an Off-Ramp? (csis.org)
(Dennis Ross, David Makovsky, Neomi Neumann, Farzin Nadimi – The Washington Institute) At first glance, the only common thread between the two targeted killings that rocked the Middle East this week—senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in a July 30 Israeli strike in Beirut, and Hamas Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in an as-yet-unclaimed attack in Tehran hours later—is that both men were top members of Iran’s self-styled “axis of resistance.” The strike on Shukr is easier to explain: Israel held him responsible for a July 27 rocket attack that killed twelve children in Majdal Shams. Yet while that attack crossed multiple red lines, Israel still did not want to trigger an all-out war with Hezbollah—hence its preference for a targeted strike that imposed a visible price (hitting a top commander in the heart of Beirut) while avoiding a large-scale operation and heavy civilian casualties. This approach leaves the question of “what next?” to Hezbollah, even as it demonstrates that Israel still has superior intelligence on the group and its movements.
Will Two Attacks Kill the Gaza Talks and Iran-Hezbollah Deterrence? | The Washington Institute
(Hanin Ghaddar – The Washington Institute) This week’s targeted strike on Fuad Shukr was a big blow to Hezbollah and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Not only did they lose their most valuable militia commander during the current phase of escalation with Israel, they also confirmed just how exposed the group is to Israel’s intelligence apparatus. Even as Hezbollah was still looking for Shukr’s body among the rubble, Hamas political leader Ismael Haniyeh was killed by an attack in Tehran, further heightening the stakes and increasing the pressure for a response. Yet Hezbollah’s intelligence vulnerabilities and Israel’s growing boldness could also have the opposite effect, prompting the group and its allies to think twice about whether and how they will escalate. This dilemma—which was noticeable in Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech earlier today—should inform the U.S. response to the latest crisis brewing between Israel and the Iranian “axis.”
Hezbollah’s Retaliation Options and the U.S. Diplomatic Role | The Washington Institute
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Days after Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas sparked the ire of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by turning down an invitation to address the Turkish parliament, the visit appears to be back on. Parliamentary speaker Numan Kurtulmus told the state-owned Anadolu news agency on July 31 that “[I]f there are no issues, we will invite Mr. Abbas to the Turkish Parliament General Assembly and he will explain the Palestinian cause in front of lawmakers,” Reuters reported. Abbas initially declined the invitation to protest Turkey’s increasingly close alignment with Hamas — a bitter rival of the Fatah-dominated PA — causing Erdogan to exclaim on July 28, “Mahmoud Abbas, who didn’t show up despite our invitation to address the parliament, owes us an apology.” The Turkish leader then added: “Let’s see if he’ll agree to come now.” According to Al-Monitor, Faed Mustafa, the PA’s representative in Ankara, stepped in to defuse tensions following Erdogan’s comment, expressing appreciation for Turkey’s “unswerving support” for the Palestinians.
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) After two weeks of speculation about his fate, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed on August 1 that Hamas military commander Muhammad Deif was eliminated in an airstrike. The July 13 strike in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis killed both Deif — a key architect of the Hamas massacre in southern Israel on October 7 — and Hamas brigade commander Rafa’a Salameh. While Salameh’s death was confirmed the day after the strike, Deif’s fate was not immediately clear.
Israel Confirms Hamas Terror Commander Muhammad Deif was Killed on July 13 (fdd.org)
(Charles Lister – Middle East Institute) Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran are explosive events for the region. Coming within 12 hours of each other, they were also an earthquake within the “Axis of Resistance” — but not one likely to encourage de-escalation. Far from it. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei has already declared Iran’s intention to exact revenge, as have the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) proxy leaders in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.
(Wilson Center) Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of the exiled wing of Hamas and its chief negotiator on issues of war and peace, was assassinated on July 31 during a visit to Tehran for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian. He had also met just hours earlier with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a sign of Haniyeh’s standing with Iran. The stunning attack, widely assumed to be by Israel, evoked rage in Iran and from its network in the so-called Axis of Resistance. In a statement, the armed wing of Hamas said the assassination would “take the battle to new dimensions and have major repercussions.” Khamenei said Iran had a duty to avenge Haniyeh’s death and warned Israel of “harsh punishment.”
The Life and Death of Ismail Haniyeh | Wilson Center
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) Only a few hours after the coronation of Iran’s newly elected president Masoud Pezeshkian which was attended by many regional leaders, including representatives from India and several Arab states, the head of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran. The news was announced by the country’s all-powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), highlighting the gravity of the situation.
Initial reading of Hamas political chief’s assassination in Iran (orfonline.org)
(Barbara Slavin – Stimson Center) The assassination of the political leader of Hamas Tuesday in Tehran is a new earthquake in a region already destabilized by nearly ten months of warfare. While Israel has not publicly accepted responsibility for the death of Ismail Haniyeh in an air strike, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed Israel and vowed unspecified revenge.
Israeli Assassination of Haniyeh Perpetuates A Grisly War • Stimson Center
Migration
(Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh. Meghan Benton – Migration Policy Institute) The gig economy—that is, work or services mediated through digital platforms and generally performed by independent contractors or freelancers—has been a growing fixture of the global economy for more than a decade, expanding considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic. Though data and research are uneven, a growing body of evidence indicates that immigrants are at the heart of this growing sector in many economies worldwide.
Research: Bridging the Gap between the Gig Economy.. | migrationpolicy.org
(Emma Dorst, Kate Hooper, Meghan Benton, and Beatrice Dain – Migration Policy Institute) Refugee labor pathways, which focus on helping displaced people with in-demand skills access existing economic immigration channels, have attracted considerable attention in recent years. The appeal is two-fold: From a humanitarian perspective, they open additional opportunities for refugees and other displaced people to move to safety. From a labor market perspective, they offer access to an additional talent pool at a time when many employers are struggling to recruit qualified workers.
Research: Engaging Employers in Growing Refugee La.. | migrationpolicy.org
(Susan Fratzke, Meghan Benton, Andrew Selee, Emma Dorst, and Samuel Davidoff-Gore – Migration Policy Institute) The international protection regime is under increasingly untenable pressure, and the obsolescence of the policy architecture on which it relies is becoming more and more apparent. The territorial asylum system, which requires asylum seekers to reach another country’s territory in order to seek protection, has proven itself to be a blunt tool with which to address the protection challenges of the 21st century.
Research: The End of Asylum? Evolving the Protecti.. | migrationpolicy.org
(Lucía Salgado, Susan Fratzke, Lawrence Huang, and Emma Dorst – Migration Policy Institute) National borders are one of the primary apertures through which publics perceive and judge migration trends and policy. Dysfunction at borders has implications that go well beyond national security, affecting commerce and trade as well as human mobility of various kinds. For asylum seekers, who generally must reach another country’s territory in order to seek protection, borders can represent the difference between danger and safety.
Research: Managing International Protection Needs .. | migrationpolicy.org
North Korea
(Daniel Salisbury – RUSI) Despite successes in its nuclear and missile programmes over the past few years, North Korea still relies on external sources of technology to supply its weapons programmes and will continue to do so in the long term. Procurement networks with tentacles all around the world have been used by the country to obtain technology from willing exporters and naive businesses, and to dupe those trying to comply with export controls over the past decades. These networks will continue to be key to the sustainment of North Korea’s programmes and further technological progress.
Peru
(The Dialogue. Leadership for the Americas) This report presents the best international practices in cross-cutting budget monitoring and their applicability to public budgeting for people with disabilities in Peru. This report responds to the need to improve the visibility, prioritization, analysis, and monitoring of public spending on the care of people with disabilities, a group that faces barriers to their full and effective participation, well-being, and development in society.
Russia
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Rostec, Russia’s state-owned military-industrial corporation, revised its financial data for 2023, initially presented in May, and handed over this new data to Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 30. The update shows a decrease in total revenue, arms manufacturing revenue, civil products revenue, and net profit, demonstrating the inflation of the original data presented, which made Rostec look more successful than it actually was. Rostec faces numerous structural obstacles to expansion, such as producing enough revenue to pay for a growing workforce and increase production. It is still unclear whether it will be able to overcome these obstacles in the foreseeable future.
Rostec’s Updated 2023 Financial Data Shows Decline in Revenue – Jamestown
Russia – Japan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow has reacted angrily to Japan’s agreement with the United States to set up a joint military command to counter Russian, Chinese, and North Korean moves. Russian commentators see this action as threatening Tokyo’s commitment not to use force offensively. This reaction builds on Russian anger about Japan’s increasing sanctions against Russia, Tokyo’s decision to provide Ukraine with offensive weaponry, and from Moscow’s perspective, Japan’s growing anti-Russian involvement in Ukraine and Central Asia. As a result, relations between the two countries have plunged to the worst level in decades, opening the door to a harsh Russian response and putting on hold any possibility of signing a peace treaty, as the two countries have technically remained at war since World War II.
Moscow Mulls Reaction to Japan’s Expanding Military Ties With United States – Jamestown
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Russian forces continue to make slow, steady advances in the Pokrovsk direction (west of Avdiivka), largely enabled by Ukrainian manpower shortages and the terrain in the area immediately northwest of Avdiivka. Russian advances will likely slow further as Russian forces advance into a line of larger and more urban settlements – Russia’s current rate of tactical advance towards Pokrovsk will likely not continue indefinitely, however, as Russian forces are approaching a line of larger and more urban settlements – Russia’s Central Grouping of Forces appears to be more rapidly redeploying and committing forces between different sectors of its recently expanded area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast than has been the norm in most of the theater recently – The Central Grouping of Forces may have established a more flexible command and control (C2) structure and may be responding more quickly to potential Ukrainian tactical vulnerabilities than other Russian groupings of forces in Ukraine – A limited number of F-16 fighter jets have reportedly arrived in Ukraine, but it will likely be several months before Ukraine will be able to field the jets at scale – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine will not compromise its sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for a diplomatic resolution to Russia’s invasion – Russia, Belarus, the US, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Turkey, and Norway conducted a high-profile prisoner exchange involving 26 prisoners from multiple countries on August 1 – Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, and Donetsk City – Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on August 1 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) may have significantly overstated the number of contract soldiers it claims to have recruited between Fall 2022 and April 2024.
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian Federation continues its efforts aimed at destabilizing Ukrainian society and undermining Kyiv’s defense capabilities through the use of social media and bots to spread disinformation. Russian propagandists effectively combine kinetic and non-kinetic means to increase the effects on the target audience, embellishing Russian military victories and the declining state of Ukrainian infrastructure. The focus on exploiting mobilization issues and energy blackouts as primary disinformation targets highlights the Kremlin’s intention to sow discord and weaken Ukraine from within.
Airstrikes, Artificial Intelligence, and Sabotage Drive Russian Psyops – Jamestown
Russia – West
(Atlantic Council) They’re coming home. On Thursday, Russia and the West carried out a massive prisoner swap in Ankara, Turkey, that saw Moscow free American journalists Evan Gershkovich and Alsu Kurmasheva, former US Marine Paul Whelan, and Russian political dissidents Vladimir Kara-Murza and llya Yashin, among others. In exchange, Western countries released eight Russian prisoners, including convicted Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov, who had been imprisoned in Germany. US President Joe Biden called the deal, which involved Germany, Poland, Turkey, Norway, and Slovenia, “a feat of diplomacy and friendship.”
Saudi Arabia
(Ahmed Fawaz Lathif – Observer Research Foundation) Saudi Arabia has historically played a significant role in the global oil market as a swing producer—a country or company with the ability to significantly influence global oil prices by adjusting its production levels—within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This stance has given Riyadh enormous influence over oil prices due to its ability to change oil output levels as the world’s second-largest producer. Recent events, however, have seen Saudi Arabia impose significant output cuts in line with its ambitious Vision 2030 goals. These measures are not only about stabilising global oil prices; they are also closely tied to the Kingdom’s larger goals of economic diversification and reduced reliance on oil revenues. Analysing Saudi Arabia’s strategy within OPEC+ reveals how production cuts support Vision 2030’s objectives, while also considering the potential domestic and foreign policy implications. This calculated approach balances traditional oil dominance with the necessity of fostering non-oil revenue streams for future economic stability.
Saudi Arabia’s strategy with the OPEC+ (orfonline.org)
Saudi Arabia – USA
(Christopher S. Chivvis, Kim Ghattas, Aaron David Miller, and Dennis Ross – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Washington has long struggled to find a balance in its relationship with Riyadh.
Taiwan
(Asia Society Policy Institute) Taiwan has become a global diplomatic, economic, and security flashpoint. Our one-of-a-kind interactive database allows visitors to use primary sources in both English and Mandarin to trace the evolution of cross-Strait relations from the perspectives of Beijing, Taipei, and Washington.
Taiwan Policy Database | Asia Society
USA
(Heather Hurlburt – Council on Foreign Relations) U.S. trade policy can still solve problems but requires new approaches that engage with current realities rather than wishful thinking, says former chief of staff to the U.S. trade representative.
Making U.S. Trade Policy Relevant Again | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, Julia Gelatt, and Jennifer Van Hook – Migration Policy Institute) In certain corners of the internet and social media, it is emphatically stated that the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has swelled by tens of millions of people over the past few years, with the proffered estimates seemingly growing exponentially by the day. These claims assume that each time a migrant is apprehended at the border, the unauthorized immigrant population increases by one person. In reality, a sizeable share of migrants arriving at the border without authorization to enter are quickly returned or removed, and the math ignores that encounters represent events, not individuals, reflecting the fact that in some cases the same person has been intercepted two or more times. Importantly, the unauthorized population is shaped not just by entries but also by exits: People are deported or leave the country voluntarily, they die, or at times, they are able to get a green card.
Diverse Flows Drive Increase in U.S. Unauthorized .. | migrationpolicy.org
(Muzaffar Chishti, Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh – Migration Policy Institute) At the recent Republican National Convention, Texas Governor Greg Abbott took credit for bringing the immigration debate to Democratic leaders: “I took the border to them,” he said. When his state in April 2022 began busing thousands of asylum seekers and other migrants to cities far from the Texas-Mexico border—dropping them off often with little to no warning—it struck many as a crisis. Chaotic scenes took place at city shelters and dropoff points, some of which—such as outside Vice President Kamala Harris’s residence in Washington, DC—had clearly been chosen for political reasons. Tent encampments sprouted on the streets of Chicago, Denver, New York, and other so-called sanctuary cities, which spent billions of dollars to provide basic necessities. The situation threatened to “destroy New York City,” Mayor Eric Adams famously warned last September.
Article: After Crisis of Unprecedented Migrant Arr.. | migrationpolicy.org
(Brandon Marrow, Jeanne Batalova – Migration Policy Institute) Becoming a citizen is an important milestone in an immigrant’s integration and signals a formal acceptance into their new country as well as belonging and stability. With the same privileges and responsibilities as the U.S. born, naturalized citizens can vote in federal elections, access a broader range of social services and benefits, apply for jobs requiring a security clearance, sponsor parents and siblings for family reunification visas (in addition to spouses and minor children), and apply for a U.S. passport. Naturalized immigrants also have more legal protections than noncitizens and cannot be deported.
Article: Naturalized Citizens in the United States | migrationpolicy.org
(Tom Z. Collina – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) On January 6, 2021, then-President Donald Trump inspired a mob attack on the US Capitol to try to prevent the peaceful transfer of power to the Biden administration. Not only was this an unprecedented attack on American democracy, but it represented a serious national security threat. Many saw and see this as one of many examples of an unstable President Trump acting in dangerous, irrational ways. And throughout his time in office, Trump—like all presidents in the nuclear age—had the unilateral authority to launch the US nuclear arsenal.
(Victor Gilinsky – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) It is often said—somewhat accusingly—that it isn’t technical issues that stand in the way of siting a US geologic repository for highly radioactive waste, but political and social ones. In fact, the issues are inextricably connected. The root of the US failure lies in the original motive of the nuclear establishment in siting such an underground repository. It was not to protect public safety, but to protect continued licensing of nuclear power plants from attack in the courts on grounds that there were no provisions for dealing with the plants’ highly radioactive waste.
USA – UK
(Vinitha Revi – Observer Research Foundation) The United States’ (US) decision to block a British judge from holding a court hearing in Diego Garcia, which the UK considers its own territory (though on long-lease to the US for its military base since 1966) could lead to a straining of relations between the two trans-Atlantic allies, with the potential to trigger an avoidable diplomatic row. Though not covered in the news as much as the UK-Mauritius sovereignty dispute over the Chagos Archipelago, the current issue, also centred on Diego Garcia, will require equally sensitive handling by London and Washington, D.C.
Potential Rift: US blocks British court access to Diego Garcia (orfonline.org)
Venezuela
(Christopher Sabatini – Chatham House) Venezuela’s 28 July elections were always about more than the future of democracy in South America. The lives and hopes of the 29 million Venezuelans still living through a humanitarian and political crisis in the country represent a global and moral concern. Beyond the country’s borders, the international reaction to President Nicolas Maduro’s questionable re-election has serious implications for regional and international norms and institutions. Venezuela’s stolen elections could affect the domestic politics of Brazil, Colombia and the United States, in ways that favour the interests and ambitions of Russia and China.
(Ryan C. Berg, Christopher Hernandez-Roy – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Venezuela is now living in the post-electoral moment of one of the most brazen thefts in modern Latin American history. Fortunately, the Venezuelan opposition was well prepared for this. In a June 2023 event with CSIS, opposition leader María Corina Machado predicted that if there were elections in Venezuela, “there are only two outcomes: a landslide victory or an obscene fraud.” These words have proven prophetic in recent days, as both of these outcomes have transpired.
Can Maduro Pull off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds? (csis.org)
(Keith Mines – United States Institute of Peace) President Nicolás Maduro declared victory despite exit polls showing an opposition landslide. With all parties back at square one, Venezuela may now revert to the previous status quo. A sustained nonviolent resistance is the only real option left for the citizens of Venezuela to pressure regime.
Yazidi
(Susan Hutchinson – Lowy The Interpreter) Yazidis in Australia and around the world have been on a ten-year quest for justice for the crimes perpetrated against them, victims of an ISIS genocide in Iraq and Syria. Nadia Murad, 21 years old when ISIS overran her village in Iraq and sold into sexual slavery before escaping, was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize in 2018 for her advocacy for survivors of conflict-related sexual violence. But this recognition only underscores the need for justice as a test for the international community. Since 2000, the UN Security Council has passed ten resolutions on the Women, Peace and Security agenda that require member states to account for women and girls’ experiences of conflict and to end impunity for sexual violence in war.
