COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
Africa
(Liam Karr – Institute for the Study of War) Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdel Fattah al Burhan in Sudan in early July as Sudan’s civil war has moved closer to Ethiopia’s border, which risks destabilizing already turbulent areas of Ethiopia. The timing of the visit highlights Ethiopia’s concern that the Rapid Support Forces’ ongoing offensive against the SAF near Sudan’s border with Ethiopia could stoke ethnic tensions in Ethiopia’s Amhara and Tigray regions and benefit ethno-nationalist militants that are hostile to the Ethiopian government. Ethiopia is also well-connected to the other stakeholders in Sudan’s civil war and is trying to advance multilateral, African-led peace initiatives to stabilize the situation.
Arctic
(Heather A. Conley, Sophie Arts, Bonnie S. Glaser, Kristine Berzina,
Jaine Archambeau – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The partnership between Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Arctic, like the broader strategic relationship between Moscow and Beijing, has evolved significantly throughout the last decade and has reached unprecedented levels within the last year.
A New Era of Arctic Geopolitics | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Asia
(Mohd. Yunus – Lowy The Interpreter) For the past 4,000 years, the Moken people, a Southeast Asian seafaring group, have travelled between Thailand and Myanmar, spending most of their time on boats known as kabang, and relying on the ocean’s bounty for sustenance. However, the Moken way of life, honed to thrive in harmony with the sea, faces an uncertain future. The present generation may be the last to benefit from the intricate knowledge of tides, constellations and marine life passed down through its oral traditions for centuries.
The uncertain future for Southeast Asia’s great sea nomads | Lowy Institute
(Luke Nottage, Nobumichi Teramura – East Asia Forum) Despite the introduction of anti-corruption laws and treaties, corruption remains a significant issue in Asia. The commitments outlined in international agreements, such as the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention and the UN Convention Against Corruption, are often ambiguous and lack effective enforcement measures both internally and between states. While countries in the Asia-Pacific have begun including anti-corruption measures in free trade agreements and international investment agreements, these instruments should be strengthened with further accountability mechanisms.
Corruption control needs a clean-up in Asia | East Asia Forum
Australia – France
(Maelle Bouvier – ASPI The Strategist) Australia and France should be cooperating in the space domain—much more than they currently do. With increased strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, space is becoming a critical area, and Australia’s neighbours are investing exponentially in technology and alliances.
Balkans
(Crisis Group) Marko Prelec speaks about the enduring political and ethnic tensions in the Western Balkans.
Prisoners of the Past? Political Crises and Ethnic Tensions in the Western Balkans | Crisis Group
Brazil – Colombia – Peru (Amazon)
(Crisis Group) Organised crime is flourishing in the jungle expanse trisected by the borders of Brazil, Colombia and Peru, putting the populations and ecosystems of the Amazon’s heartland at serious risk. With donor aid, the three states should act fast before the illegal activity does irreversible damage.
A Three Border Problem: Holding Back the Amazon’s Criminal Frontiers | Crisis Group
China
(Daria Impiombato and Nathan Attrill – ASPI The Strategist) The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party has accepted the resignation of one of its own most highly ranked members, former foreign minister Qin Gang, highlighting Xi Jinping’s continuing lack of trust in some of his own hand-picked officials. Qin’s exit, along with that of other senior officials dismissed from office in the past year, was confirmed on 18 July at a key Central Committee meeting held every five years, known as the third plenum.
Third plenum exits show trust still an issue for Xi | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Brookings) There is a lot of discussion in Washington about China’s social and economic challenges and the potential implications of these challenges for Chinese society, governance, and foreign policy. In the following collection of short essays, Brookings scholars offer their different perspectives drawing on decades of experience living and working in China to answer the question, “How is China’s domestic situation evolving?”
How is China’s domestic situation evolving? | Brookings
Democratic Republic of the Congo – Rwanda
(Crisis Group) Enrica Picco et Rinaldo Depagne reçoivent Richard Moncrieff, directeur du projet des Grands Lacs, et Onesphore Sematumba, analyste pour la République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) et le Burundi à International Crisis Group, pour parler du conflit meurtrier à l’est de la RDC et de ses conséquences humanitaires dévastantes.
Les risques d’une guerre ouverte entre la RDC et le Rwanda | Crisis Group
Emerging Technologies
(Jack Kelly – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Adapting to the massive opportunities and disruptions of artificial intelligence (AI) will be one of the defining challenges of this generation. Succeeding will require clear priorities and a healthy awareness of potential pitfalls. Should mitigating the risk of extinction from AI be a global priority? Many leading AI experts have publicly said so, including two of the three “godfathers of AI,” Yoshua Bengio and Geoffrey Hinton. This weighty claim has understandably provoked skepticism from both the public and other AI experts, including the third “godfather,” Yann LeCun.
European Union
(James Batchik – Atlantic Council) On Thursday, the European Parliament voted by a sizeable margin to confirm Ursula von der Leyen for another five-year term as president of the European Commission. Her confirmation is good news for Europe and the transatlantic relationship. This time around, however, she will have to confront a different set of challenges to her agenda than in her first term, and they will come both from within the European Union (EU) and without.
What to expect from Ursula von der Leyen’s second term – Atlantic Council
Global Governance
(Homi Kharas, John W. McArthur, and Odera Onyechi – Brookings) At last September’s major U.N. SDG midpoint summit, a downcast narrative prevailed. Official statements stressed only 15% of the targets being on track, and many going in reverse. The U.N. Secretary-General (2023) called for an SDG “rescue plan.” Nature, the eminent scientific journal, asserted prior to the summit that the world’s effort “to make humanity sustainable is failing.”
How is the world doing on the SDGs? Four tests and eight findings | Brookings
Indonesia – Ukraine
(Trystanto Sanjaya – East Asia Forum) Indonesia did not sign the final communique of the 2024 Ukraine peace summit, citing a need for more inclusive dialogue with Russia included as a participant. While the country has affirmed its support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, it wants to avoid appearing excessively aligned with Western countries. President-elect Prabowo Subianto may seek to take a more assertive role in world affairs and push for an immediate end to the war, whether justly or unjustly for Ukraine.
Understanding Indonesia’s Ukraine peace summit scepticism | East Asia Forum
Iran – Indian Ocean
(Jonathan Campbell-James – Lowy The Interpreter) An Iranian warship sailing the deep waters of the Indian Ocean should set alarm bells ringing. The IRGC Navy (NEDSA) completed a pioneering long-range cruise in May, claiming to have passed waters near the US military base at Diego Garcia and beyond during 39 days at sea. Long-range deployments have previously been undertaken by the conventional Iranian Navy (NEDAJA), while NEDSA – as an arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – is allied with the aggressive regional expansionism program that within the Iranian state is driven by the IRGC.
IRGC Navy flexes its long-range threat capability | Lowy Institute
Japan – Taiwan
(Jane Rickards – ASPI The Strategist) ‘Only thunder, no rain’ is the Chinese saying. Plenty of serious-sounding noise has come from Japan in the past few years about the need to back Taiwan against conquest by China, but it isn’t turning into much practical security cooperation.
Lacking: Japanese security cooperation with Taiwan | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Alexandra Braverman, Johanna Moore, Kelly Campa, Katherine Wells, Kathryn Tyson, Siddhant Kishore, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War) Iran: Members of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle told Western Media that Khamenei sought to promote the candidacy of Masoud Pezeshkian due to Pezeshkian’s ability to “foster unity.” – Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Air Force killed two Hamas commanders and one PIJ commander in the Gaza Strip on July 18 – Lebanon: The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes that killed one Hamas leader and one Hezbollah member in southern Lebanon on July 18.
Iran Update, July 18, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Shlomo Ben-Ami – ASPI The Strategist) In 2017, Iran unveiled a digital clock counting down the days to the destruction of Israel in 2040. The display, located in Tehran’s Palestine Square, embodies the Islamic Republic’s long-held commitment to annihilating the Jewish state. Some view this promise as a mere rhetorical exercise to rally support at home and throughout the Muslim world. But as the Gaza war drags on and seems poised to expand, many in Israel, including former prime minister Ehud Barak, see an actionable plan that Iran seeks to execute, the consequences be damned.
Israel is enabling Iran’s war of attrition | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Two drones launched by an unspecified Iranian proxy in Iraq targeted U.S. and coalition forces at the Ain Al-Asad base in Iraq on July 16, the Pentagon confirmed. Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said during a press briefing on July 18 that an Iranian proxy group launched two one-way attack drones at the base. One of the drones was shot down, while the other impacted the base, causing minimal damage and no injuries.
Iranian-Backed Terrorists Resume Attacks on U.S. Troops in Iraq (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Officials from the United States, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) held a secret meeting in Tel Aviv last week to discuss reopening the Rafah crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip as part of a ceasefire deal, Axios reported on July 17. U.S. officials believe that reopening the border crossing is a crucial step to the first phase of a ceasefire deal announced by the United States on May 31, which includes transferring wounded Hamas terrorists for treatment in Egypt. The meeting’s participants included White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk, Shin Bet director Ronen Bar, PA Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh — a top deputy of PA President Mahmoud Abbas — and the PA’s director of intelligence Majed Faraj.
U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian Officials Met to Discuss Control of Rafah Crossing (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The United States recently warned and questioned Iran over intelligence that the regime is working on applications relevant to nuclear weapons, Axios reported on July 17. Tehran reportedly explained the activities and denied the regime was seeking nuclear weapons. Axios reported in June that U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained information during March “that showedIranian scientists were engaging in computer modeling and metallurgical research” relevant to nuclear explosive development.
Washington Warns Iran over Alleged Nuclear Weapons Work (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed Hamas commander Muhammed Jabara in an airstrike in Lebanon on July 18. Hamas has increased its threats from Lebanon in recent years and has used the country to carry out rocket attacks against Israel since the Hamas massacre of October 7. “Both Hamas, the Gaza Strip-based Palestinian terror group, and al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya, or Islamic Group, a Lebanese terror group, claimed Muhammed Jabara as a member and a commander,” The Times of Israel noted. Jabara was from the town of Qaraoun and was struck in the area of the Western Beqaa, 25 miles north of the Israeli border with Lebanon.
IDF Strike Kills Hamas Commander in Lebanon (fdd.org)
NATO
(Council of Councils) Leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) gathered in Washington, DC, on July 9–11 to mark the alliance’s seventy-fifth anniversary and discuss security assistance for Ukraine, taking a more strategic approach to Russia, and other global challenges. Council of Councils experts react to the NATO commitments made at the summit for this CoC global perspective series, and the future of the alliance given the uncertainty of the upcoming U.S. election.
North Korea
(Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) North Korea—also known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK—has made significant advances over the past two decades in developing its nuclear weapons arsenal. Since 2006, North Korea has detonated six nuclear devices, updated its nuclear doctrine to reflect the irreversible role of nuclear weapons for its national security, and continued to introduce a variety of new missiles test-flown from new launch platforms.
North Korean nuclear weapons, 2024 – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
Philippines – Japan
(Richard Javad Heydarian – Lowy The Interpreter) The Philippines and Japan have finalised a vital security pact after years-long negotiations. The newly-signed Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) is a de facto visiting forces deal, since it establishes “procedures for the cooperative activities … while the force of one country is visiting the other country and defines a legal status of the visiting force.” Accordingly, it allows the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Japanese Self Defence Forces (JSDF) to dramatically expand joint military activities, including large-scale drills focused on enhancing interoperability and joint response to various contingencies, including disasters as well as armed conflicts.
Philippines-Japan security pact puts China on notice | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Emerson T. Brooking, Eto Buziashvili, Andy Carvin, Ruslan Trad – Atlantic Council) It was 1:11am Moscow Time when a twenty-year-old gunman in Butler, Pennsylvania made his attempt on former President Trump’s life. The late hour did little to stem the enthusiasm of pro-Kremlin propagandists, influencers, and apparatchiks. By the time most Russians awoke, they were greeted with a sea of reporting and commentary that blended American conspiratorialism with distinctly Russian aims and interests. These early narratives provide a compelling glimpse of the Russian media ecosystem in action. They also suggest how and where Russian influence efforts may be focused in the weeks ahead.
How Russian propagandists spun the Trump assassination attempt – DFRLab
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Christina Harward, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War) Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian coast guard base in occupied Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18 – European countries continue to display their commitment to Ukraine and unity in the face of Russian aggression – Rosgvardia made an unprecedented proposal on July 17 to grant Russian Central Bank leadership the right to carry automatic weapons and handguns – Kremlin officials continue to expand the geographic scope of Russia’s proposed alternative “Eurasian security architecture.” – The US continues efforts to build out a partnership with Armenia, sparking critical reactions from Kremlin officials – Russian forces recently marginally advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and near Kharkiv City, Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Hulyaipole – Russian officials continue efforts to expand the Russian Armed Forces’ training capacity and address force generation issues.
Space
(Rebecca Connolly – Lowy The Interpreter) At the NATO Summit in Washington last week, leaders noted the rising threats in space. The technology orbiting the Earth is critical to the digital world and underpins both civilian infrastructure and military activities. Yet these space assets are increasingly vulnerable. Diplomatic tensions between the United States, Russia and China have increased in the space domain, with serious concern surrounding the development of space and counterspace weapons. So-called “grey zone” space operations have also sparked serious concern, which can include jamming or spoofing of satellites, non-kinetic attacks on space assets, cyber operations, unauthorised proximity and rendezvous operations, and satellite stalking.
Rising tensions over outer space – a new diplomatic hot zone | Lowy Institute
Ukraine – NATO
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) NATO’s Washington Summit Declaration looks noncommittal and conditions-hedged regarding Ukraine’s eventual membership in the alliance. Member states believe that Ukraine’s accession would involve the alliance in a war with Russia so long as Moscow wages war against Ukraine. The alliance’s decision to designate Ukrainian membership explicitly as an end goal and the path to it as “irreversible,” significantly improve on previous NATO documents regarding Ukraine. Postponing Ukraine’s NATO accession pending an “end to the war,” “peace,” or an armistice overlooks Russia’s erasure of differences between war and peace. Waiting until “after the war” would incentivize Russia to continue waging war against Ukraine precisely to block its path to NATO.
Ukraine’s Membership Prospects No Clearer After NATO’s Washington Summit – Jamestown
USA
(Crisis Group) After a would-be assassin shot at former U.S. President and current Republican candidate Donald Trump on 13 July, the country’s political leaders, especially Trump himself, should avoid stoking division in order to reduce risks of violence as the November election approaches.
