COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(Andrew Henderson – ASPI The Strategist) A nation that can’t feed itself can’t defend itself. Yet policymakers fail to grasp that food security doesn’t just happen. Food should be recognised for what it is: a fundamental input to Australia’s defence capability and national resilience.
Australia needs a food-security strategy | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Indonesia
(Sam Roggeveen – Lowy The Interpreter) Australia is lucky to have Indonesia as a close neighbour. It’s true that Jakarta is often prickly. Indonesia has never been benign and friendly like New Zealand (we couldn’t get that lucky twice), and the early history of Indonesia-Australia relations even includes a military confrontation. Yet despite periods of tumult and tragedy in the relationship, it could have been so much worse for Australia.
The time has come for an Australia‑Indonesia military pact | Lowy Institute
Australia – Latin America
(Kazimier Lim – Lowy The Interpreter) November will be an exciting time for Australia’s relationship with Latin America. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is set to meet his Latin American counterparts at the APEC summit in Peru followed by a trip to Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit immediately after.
Why Australia needs more flights to Latin America | Lowy Institute
Bulgaria
(Victoria Bogdanova – GMF) Following the announcement of the results of the June 9 elections for the 50th National Assembly of Bulgaria and European Parliament, the constitutional procedure for forming a new government was set into motion.
China – Taiwan
(Rena Sasaki – The Jamestown Foundation) A recent translation of a book by influential writer and retired PLA officer Liu Mingfu includes a previously censored chapter on a new approach to reunification with Taiwan, indicating that a wider range of approaches to the “Taiwan question” are in play than many outside the PRC assume. The book uses the American Civil War as a model of a successful war of reunification that decisively quashed divisive forces and safeguarded national unity. Liu emphasizes the Union’s ability to influence international public opinion in ways that limited support to the Confederacy and precluded foreign intervention. Liu argues that the American model should be transcended in the Taiwan context by reducing casualties and national spending, aiming instead for an “intelligent war,” a “civilized war,” and a “zero-casualty war,” though he does not elaborate on what these would mean, limiting their practical utility.
European Union – China
(Noah Barkin – GMF) Europe’s Franco-German engine hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for years. But until now, the sputtering motor could be blamed on personality differences, divergent policy ambitions, and external traumas such as the war in Ukraine, which has shifted Europe’s center of gravity eastward, away from Berlin and Paris. Following the European Parliament (EP) election and the first round of French legislative elections on Sunday, a new dynamic has taken hold. France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz have emerged so weakened from the votes that their ability to steer policy at home and in Europe is in greater doubt than ever before. This frailty is likely to infect all areas of policy, including how Europe manages its increasingly strained relationship with China.
Watching China in Europe—July 2024 | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
European Union – Egypt
(Mirette F. Mabrouk – Middle East Institute) On June 29, over 1,000 participants, including a high-level European Union delegation led by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, descended on Cairo for a two-day EU-Egypt Investment Conference. By all accounts it seems to have been successful. Egypt and the EU reached a €1 billion investment deal, and over 20 memorandums of understanding (MoU), collectively worth approximately €40 billion in private investment, were signed on the sidelines.
New EU aid and investment in Egypt linked to migration control | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
European Union – Moldova – Ukraine
(Khrystyna Parandii – GMF) On June 25, Moldova and Ukraine held their first intergovernmental conferences with the EU, effectively starting formal membership negotiations, almost exactly two years after the European Council granted candidate status to both. This clears the way for the most painstaking part of the accession process: bringing the candidate countries’ legislation in line with EU laws and standards by implementing the necessary judicial, administrative, economic, and other reforms.
Georgia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Following the adoption of the “foreign agents” law in Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream party has adopted the first reading of a bill and 18 legislative acts restricting the rights of sexual minorities. Georgian experts believe this legislation plays on the conservative views of some Georgians and corresponds to the Kremlin’s strategy of promoting anti-Western “pseudo-values” in the so-called “Russian world” that allegedly violate fundamental human rights. While the adoption of this legislation could compromise Georgia’s integration into the European Union, Georgian civil society and the opposition are afraid to actively oppose it to avoid provoking the conservative majority before the October parliamentary elections.
Georgian Parliament Passes First Reading of Russian-Style Anti-LGBT Legislation – Jamestown
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Kathryn Tyson, Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Siddhant Kishore, Katherine Wells, Andie Parry, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Iran: Recent Iranian polls show that moderate Masoud Pezeshkian is leading over ultraconservative Saeed Jalili in the Iranian presidential race – Gaza Strip: Israel and Hamas have resumed negotiations over a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Significant obstacles remain to securing a ceasefire agreement – Lebanon: Iran and the Axis of Resistance are conducting an information operation meant to prevent Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon.
Iran Update, July 4, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Noah Sylvia – RUSI) While AI has the potential to refine and improve military targeting, the evidence suggests that the Israeli military’s use of AI tools during the Gaza conflict has been more about speed than accuracy.
(Darya Dolzikova – RUSI) While persuading Iran to roll back its nuclear programme at this stage may be difficult, the US and its allies can and should seek to reinforce Tehran’s perception that a decision to weaponise the programme would increase Iranian isolation and insecurity.
(Peter Clarke – RUSI) In January 2024 Iran successfully tested the launch of ballistic missiles housed in cargo containers from the deck of a container ship, giving it the ability to launch missile strikes from new and previously unexpected vectors and from a highly survivable platform. This has significantly increased Iran’s naval strike effectiveness.
Iran’s Modern Q-Ship: A Threat from New Quarters | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
(Yehoshua Kalisky – INSS) The UAVs, which have been frequently used by the Shiite axis since the beginning of the Swords of Iron War, pose a threat to civilians and to both the IDF forces and their facilities. Their use by Hezbollah has already caused damage to lives and property and may cause significant delays in offensive maneuvers in the future.
The Different Ways Now and in the Future to Deal With the UAV Threat | INSS
(Alex Vatanka – Middle East Institute) On June 28, Iran held its third election in the span of just four months — the quickest tempo since the 1906 constitutional revolution, which mandated that the authorities hold regular general elections. Iranians cast ballots for the Majlis (parliament) in March and May, and voted in the first round of presidential elections on June 28. A fourth contest, the presidential runoff, is scheduled for July 5. And yet the opposite of election fervor has gripped the country. The June 28 election made history by setting a new record low for turnout. The lowest presidential turnout until this election was in 2021, at 48%. This time around, official data suggests 39.9% of voters cast a ballot on June 28, but the real figure could easily be lower. Participation is unlikely to rise in the second round, on July 5, but where turnout will end up is the million-dollar question.
What’s at stake as Iran heads to a presidential runoff? | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
(ATFL-MEI) As tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalate, the specter of a full-scale war, with the potential to draw in the United States and Iran, demands the US’s immediate attention. The Biden-Harris Administration has tasked, in response, White House Senior Advisor Amos Hochstein with mediating efforts to de-escalate the conflict and bring stability to the Lebanon-Israel border.
NATO – Ukraine
(Michal Baranowski – GMF) Russia’s war in Ukraine will be the central issue of the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, DC. Though the alliance continues to focus on threats coming from all directions, the “360-degree” perspective, the war has entirely upended security in Europe. Ukrainian membership in NATO—even an invitation to join— is not on the agenda, but support for Kyiv and its relationship with the bloc will be the critical and contentious issue in discussions at the summit and beyond. The situation on the Ukrainian front will continue to drive security policy in Europe and in the alliance as a whole.
The NATO Washington Summit and Ukraine | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Nicaragua
(Maria Fernanda Bozmoski – ASPI The Strategist) Nicaragua continues to make headlines for all the wrong reasons. In May, it was reported that President Daniel Ortega had exiled Sheynnis Palacios, the reigning Miss Universe, and her family from the country. The ban is disappointing but predictable for a government that has become increasingly authoritarian, repressive, and paranoid, especially since mass protests erupted over proposed social-security reforms in 2018.
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement, instead demanding Ukraine’s “irreversible” “demilitarization” as a precondition for any ceasefire agreement. Putin is thus demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in advance of any ceasefire. Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) officers reportedly detained the commander of the Russian 83rd Guards Airborne Assault (VDV) Brigade, Colonel Artyom Gorodilov, on fraud charges on July 3 following reports of the brigade suffering heavy losses in the Kharkiv direction in June 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin supported the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) efforts to expand its presence in Central Asia and will likely use an increased SCO presence as one of its levers to expand Russian influence in the region. The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced the purchase of $2.2 billion worth of US-produced air defense interceptors and an aid package worth $150 million for Ukraine on July 3. Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on July 4 that around 190,000 Russians signed military service contracts during the first six months of 2024 during a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) meeting about staffing the Russian military with contract soldiers.
(Mick Ryan – Lowy The Interpreter) The past six months have been a low ebb for Ukraine as it fights to defeat the Russian military’s efforts to ruin and subjugate it. Beginning with last December’s admission by the Ukrainian President that the 2023 counteroffensive had failed, Ukraine has also endured a shortfall in munitions due to the months-long debate in the US Congress, a significant shortfall in frontline personnel as a partial result of the delayed Ukrainian mobilisation legislation, and a renewed Russian aerial onslaught which is destroying Ukraine’s power generation capacity while also attacking Ukrainian combat units with dozens of glide bombs each day.
Four key influences on the evolution of the Ukraine War in 2025 | Lowy Institute
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) The war in Ukraine is leading both Moscow and Kyiv to engage in increased cyberattacks that are destructive to both infrastructure and civilian lives from meddling with energy networks to manipulating people into committing violent acts. Ukraine has conducted a large-scale call center fraud operation targeting Russia, particularly older and more gullible Russian citizens, which is forcing the Russian state to increase surveillance on communication networks. Over two years of fighting has increasingly blurred the lines between state and non-state cyber actors, creating a working relationship between criminal hacking groups and official intelligence organizations.
Russia’s War Against Ukraine Driving Evolution of Cyber Warfare – Jamestown
South Africa
(Ashton Robinson – Lowy The Interpreter) President Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress lost ground badly in South Africa’s June elections, declining to 40 per cent of the vote. The result has forced the ANC into a coalition for the first time since the end of apartheid.
South Africa: Strange noises in the cabinet | Lowy Institute
Türkiye – BRICS
(Fuad Shahbazov – The Jamestown Foundation) In June, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss, among other issues, Türkiye’s prospective membership in the loose-economic grouping of BRICS, which Putin “fully supports.”. The impetus for BRICS expansion has grown significantly amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Moscow and Beijing promoting it as a critical counterweight to US and Western influence. Türkiye’s pursuit of BRICS membership looks to promote foreign investment, increased market access, and economic growth and reflects a foreign policy tradition of balancing between regional powers.
Türkiye Demonstrates Increased Interest in BRICS Membership – Jamestown
Ukraine
(Oksana Ihnatenko – RUSI) The Russian invasion of Ukraine has left much of the country in ruins. Rallying international support for the nation’s swift recovery has therefore become a necessity. From the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the international community has shown support for Ukraine and reaffirmed its commitments to help the country during the reconstruction process. Despite ongoing battles on the frontline and air raids, the rebuilding of affected areas started during spring 2022 and is ongoing. This Policy Brief examines whether virtual assets can be used to facilitate donations to Ukraine’s urgent reconstruction efforts and looks at how stakeholders can provide transparent information about how funds are used.
(Hlib Parfonov – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian forces require more assistance in repairing, maintaining, and training for Western-made air defense systems. They also need additional air defense assets, especially surface-to-air missiles and corresponding systems, drone interceptors, and infrared search and track capabilities. Ukraine’s Western partners can temporarily fill these gaps with Soviet-era systems with the follow-on of more advanced systems providing a longer-term, more effective solution. On the eve of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Washington, air defense is set to be a central point in discussions as alliance members consider options for more effectively supporting Kyiv
