LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(Raelene Lockhorst, Nicholas Meatheringham and Matt Priest – ASPI The Strategist) The Department of Defence is the largest single landholder in the Commonwealth and one of the largest overall landholders in Australia. The Defence estate comprises 70 major bases, 100-plus training ranges and more than 1000 owned and leased properties. Those assets have a combined gross replacement value of around $68 billion. Defence properties are situated in some of the most valuable and desirable locations across Australia, such as Victoria Barracks on St Kilda Road in Melbourne, Victoria Barracks on Oxford Street in Sydney, and HMAS Penguin and the Garden Island Naval Precinct, both of which are on Sydney Harbour.
Defence estate divestments: the state of play | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Belarus
(Grigory Ioffe – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusian statehood and national identity have experienced several transformations throughout history, influenced by connections to Russia and the West. The Belarusian population is divided between two dominant narratives on national identity: the “Westernizing” and Russo-centric perspectives. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka subscribes to the Russo-centric narrative but, at times, he has sought to find common ground with the Westernizers. Lukashenka has worked hard to maintain at least some room for geopolitical maneuver in preventing Russia’s total absorption of Belarus and protecting Minsk’s sovereignty. The Belarusian president has repeatedly taken a stand against the Kremlin’s desire to annex Belarus and initiated some attempts at rapprochement with the opposition and the West. Official Minsk has had to defend the country’s sovereignty not only from Moscow but also from Belarusian activists who were all too eager to unite Belarus with Russia. Some observers of Belarusian politics have claimed that Lukashenka is no nationalist due to his autocratic tendencies. The criteria for determining whether someone is a Belarusian nationalist—“pro-European + anti-authoritarian + speaking Belarusian”—have been problematic and unevenly applied. Lukashenka is no Western-style democrat, but his authoritarian power base in Minsk may ensure that Belarus avoids falling victim to the Kremlin’s imperial designs. The West faces a choice about whether to further isolate the Lukashenka government or re-engage with official Minsk in the hopes of altering that orientation. The lifting of some sectoral sanctions in return for the release of political prisoners could represent the first step in this potential rapprochement.
Lukashenka and the Nuances of Belarusian Nationalism – Jamestown
Central Bank Digital Currencies
(Sauradeep Bag – East Asia Forum) Over 130 countries, including China, India and Cambodia, are exploring the development and implementation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). These centralised digital forms of fiat currency aim to modernise payment systems. But concerns regarding potential government control over individuals, an imbalance between promise and delivery and the necessity of prioritising ethics, privacy and effectiveness, are hindering widespread adoption and progress.
The ethics and efficiency dilemmas of central bank digital currencies | East Asia Forum
India
(Mohamed A. El-Erian, A. Michael Spence – Council on Foreign Relations) India’s recent economic success, solid momentum, and promising prospects are making the country ever more influential both regionally and internationally. But the experience of other countries – most notably China over the last three decades – suggests that such rapid influence and robust progress can be tricky to manage. After all, an action that makes sense domestically may conflict with what other countries expect from a systemically important economy. By the same token, actions that make sense internationally could complicate domestic economic progress.
The Indian Giant Has Arrived | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Japan – Pacific
(Daniel Mandell – Lowy The Interpreter) This month, Japan hosted defence and security officials from 14 Pacific Island countries and Western allies for the 2nd Japan Pacific Islands Defence Dialogue. The multilateral meeting, hosted by Japan’s Ministry of Defence, comes in the run-up to the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM10), Japan’s triennial forum designed to enhance partnership with the region, at which security and police agreements between Japan and the island nations are expected to be signed. These agreements will be notable because, while Japan has long been a major provider of regional foreign assistance in a variety of sectors, domestic security has not been one of them.
Should Japan expand its security partnerships in the Pacific? | Lowy Institute
Russia
1 – (Thomas S. Warrick – Atlantic Council) The March 22 attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue by the terrorist group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham–Khorasan (ISIS-K) has victimized the Russian people—twice. First, at least 139 people were killed and hundreds injured in the spray of gunfire and arson before the start of a sold-out concert by the popular rock group Piknik.
2 – (Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Cracks in the Kremlin’s infrastructure are appearing following the Russian Presidential Election last week, exposing fragilities in the seemingly solid system of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s power. The deadlock in the high-intensity battles in Ukraine has led to worrisome developments in many aspects of Russian society, revealing weaknesses in the Russian military and growing domestic issues. Lies and false outrage cannot generate a semblance of unity in a Russian society traumatized by an unwinnable war and disappointed in Putin’s self-serving leadership.
Post-“Election” Russia Sinks Deeper into War Quagmire – Jamestown
3 – (Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declarations regarding Poland once again demonstrate that the Kremlin is trying to create and strengthen contradictions between its geopolitical enemies. Moscow has a similar policy regarding other Western countries, and Kremlin analysts do not conceal the fact that Russia finds itself in opposition to the entire Western world and wishes to weaken Europe. Even against the background of this rhetoric, the Kremlin is trying to win the favor of some Western elites and position Russia as the “true Europe.”
Kremlin Continues Tactic of Pitting West Against Itself – Jamestown
4 – (Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) The Movement of the First, a successor to the Soviet Pioneers, is growing, indicating the potential for a more radicalized, militarized Russian future. The Kremlin-sponsored organization is ostensibly designed to promote creative work and life in Russia, but its actions suggest that the real goal is to foster nationalism among young Russians. The Kremlin’s overlap of the Movement of the First with other youth structures replicates Russia’s management of paramilitary groups and provides a confusing and layered picture with potentially divided loyalties.
Youth Organization Signals Growing Russian Militarization – Jamestown
5 – (Munira Mustaffa – Lowy The Interpreter) As details of the recent terrorist attack in Moscow gradually emerged, the whirlwind of speculations surrounding culpability intensified. Theories ranged wildly from accusations of FSB-orchestrated false flag operations to assertions of failures in Russian intelligence in preventing the attack. But what is now certain is that the attack was indeed perpetrated by the Islamic State, specifically Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) whose rank-and-file also included Central Asian fighters.
Moscow attacks: Why Putin was quick to blame Ukraine | Lowy Institute
Senegal
On Monday, former Prime Minister Amadou Ba conceded defeat against Bassirou Diomaye Faye in Senegal’s presidential election. Faye’s path is now cleared to be the fifth president of the Republic of Senegal, and Ba’s concession—in which he congratulated Faye—immediately decreased the possibility of tensions arising from a disputed election. It is the first time that a candidate from an opposition party has won a presidential election in the first round. According to numerous reports, the election went smoothly, without any major incidents.
Vietnam – China
(Nguyen Quoc Buu – Lowy The Interpreter) Last month saw official memorials in Vietnam for the 45th anniversary of the Sino-Vietnamese War held in border provinces Quảng Ninh and Hà Giang. Provincial and military officials participated, as well as a former president, Trương Tấn Sang. The prominence accorded the remembrance marked a change in the context of many years of warm relations between Vietnam and China, where the legacy of the war has often been downplayed or even ignored.
From silence to remembrance: Vietnam’s shifting approach to China | Lowy Institute
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
