LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(RAND Corporation) What are the potential risks associated with artificial intelligence? Might any of these be catastrophic or even existential? And as momentum builds toward boundless applications of this technology, how might humanity reduce AI risk and navigate an uncertain future? At a recent RAND event, a panel of five experts explored these emerging questions.
Is AI an Existential Risk? Q&A with RAND Experts | RAND
Belarus
1 – (Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarus’s new military doctrine appears to emphasize tactical nuclear weapons as a means of preventing others from attacking the country. While high-ranking military officials use generic phrases about the role of tactical nukes, lower-ranking officials hint at provisions for preemptive nuclear strikes against adversaries. Russia controls the nuclear warheads on Belarus’s territory, though Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka also plays a role in the decision-making process for their potential use.
Belarus Addresses Nuclear Weapons in New Military Doctrine – Jamestown
2 – (Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarus plays an essential geostrategic role in the logistical transport networks between Asia and Europe through the “Northern Corridor,” which passes through Russia and Belarus. Although Western sanctions due to the war in Ukraine have negatively affected the volume of transport through the “Northern Corridor,” instability in the Middle East and the Red Sea have increased demand for overland transport via this route. Western states could use the opportunity to stabilize essential logistical cooperation with Minsk in the interest of Belarusian statehood, given that businesses will push for the expansion of this route.
Logistical Semi-Blockade Undermines Strategic Foundations of Belarusian Statehood – Jamestown
China – Russia
(Timothy R. Heath, Clint Reach, Michael J. Mazarr – RAND Corporation) This report is part of a larger RAND study on the societal foundations of national competitiveness. Building off that study’s identification of the qualities that contribute to national dynamism and success in international rivalries from a Western perspective, the authors surveyed Chinese and Russian thinking about the qualities that tend to produce competitive advantage.
The Societal Basis for National Competitiveness: Chinese and Russian Perspectives | RAND
Indo – Pacific
(Melissa Levaillant – European Council on Foreign Relations) Disaster relief efforts in the Indo-Pacific are quickly becoming a space for geopolitical competition, especially between the US and China. Europeans should watch closely, working to showcase their own usefulness to the region while helping to reduce its dependencies on China.
Iran
(Crisis Group) Turnout in Iran’s national polls was historically low, marking the third vote in a row in which most people stayed away. In parallel, conservatives tightened their hold on the Islamic Republic’s institutions. The two trends together highlight the growing gap between state and society.
Closing Circles: Iran’s Exclusionary 2024 Elections | Crisis Group
NATO – Finland – Sweden
(James Black, Charlotte Kleberg, Erik Silfversten – RAND Corporation) A paper examines the contributions that Finland and Sweden can make to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) as the newest NATO Allies, having joined in response to Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It examines the path each nation took towards NATO membership, after a long history of armed neutrality and military non-alignment. It also explores the capabilities and expertise that Finland and Sweden bring to the Alliance in terms not only of their armed forces but also their approaches to innovation, security, resilience and emergency preparedness. This builds on prior RAND Europe research on opportunities to deepen cooperation in the Nordic-Baltic region and ways to enhance defence and deterrence on NATO’s northern flank more broadly, including in the Arctic.
Russia
1 – (Mikhail Zygar – Atlantic Council) There will be very little suspense surrounding Russia’s presidential election this month. Vladimir Putin will certainly win a fifth term as Kremlin leader. This is because Russian elections are not elections. Instead, they are mobilization and legitimization rituals in which the results are preordained. And even such a shock as opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death probably won’t change this.
All the autocrat’s men: The court politics of Putin’s inner circle – Atlantic Council
2 – (Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts that participants of the “special military operation” should be viewed as the new elite of Russia and participate in the governing the country to sustain support from those on the front. The Kremlin will be forced to show successful examples of turning the military into “elites” while periodically sacrificing part of the “old” elite to demonstrate the continuing “cleansing of Russia.”. Under this propagandistic scheme to manipulate the Russian population, the actual participants in the war against Ukraine, who have no real connections with politicians, will remain unwanted and make up the bulk of future societal discontent.
Veterans of War Against Ukraine Become New Russian Elite – Jamestown
3 – (Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia has proposed a pause of the fighting in Ukraine in exchange for strategic arms and space negotiations with the West. The Russian armed forces have been taking Soviet-era arms out of storage as a solution to its dwindling supply of weapons despite these reserves being limited. As Russian arms stores decrease, Russia could finally be defeated in the war in the foreseeable future if the West commits to continued and scaled military assistance to Ukraine.
Russia Exhausts Soviet-era Arms Storage Bases – Jamestown
Russia – Armenia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow fears that Armenia may demand that Russia pull its border guards from Yerevan’s international airport and close its military base at Gyumri, following Armenia’s suspension of its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Kremlin worries about losing influence in Armenia. Russian officials see the West as behind these moves and warn that if Armenia continues to follow the path of Georgia and Ukraine, it may face the same fate. Moscow is already applying economic pressure and exploiting Azerbaijani territorial demands in northern Armenia in hopes that it can block Armenia’s turn to the West.
Moscow Fears Armenia Now Following Same Path as Georgia and Ukraine – Jamestown
Russia – Georgia
(Zaal Anjaparidze – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia is experiencing the effects of Russia’s soft power through the presence of pro-Russian organizations, media outlets, and parties that assert closer ties to Moscow will settle disagreements between the two countries. Recent polls have indicated that a significant segment of Georgian society is still holding onto elements of the country’s Soviet heritage, making them targets of Russian hybrid warfare. The outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine Moscow’s ability to influence Tbilisi despite ambivalent attitudes in Georgian society toward Russia.
Russian Influence in Georgia Ahead of Critical Elections – Jamestown
Saudi Arabia
(Robert Czulda – Stimson Center) While Saudi Arabia may not be able to develop complex weapon systems, it could design and produce light arms, drones, and armored vehicles.
Saudi Goals of Developing an Indigenous Arms Industry are Ambitious • Stimson Center
Somalia
(Crisis Group) Elections in the Somali state of Puntland were a mixed bag. The vote was peaceful, but it followed an indirect model in which most have no voice. The re-elected president should reconcile with opponents while Somalia draws wider lessons from a failed experiment with democratisation.
Lessons from the Missed Opportunity in Puntland’s Polls | Crisis Group
Turkey
(Fuad Shahbazov – Stimson Center) An attack on a Roman Catholic church in Istanbul signals a renewed threat from ISIS-K, which is seeking new targets outside Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
What Does a Recent ISIS-K Terror Attack Mean for Turkey? • Stimson Center
USA
1 – (Atlantic Council) The clock is ticking. On Wednesday, the US House overwhelmingly passed a bill to force the Chinese company ByteDance to divest from TikTok, or else the wildly popular social media app would be banned in the United States. Many lawmakers say the app is a national security threat, but the bill faces an uncertain path in the Senate.
2 – (James Andrew Lewis – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Recent legislation in the House of Representatives highlights the discussion of national security risks from the use of TikTok have identified three potential sources of danger. The first is that TikTok is part of a nefarious Chinese government influence operation designed to sway U.S. politics. The second is that TikTok can be used to collect personal data on Americans. The third is that voluntarily downloading TikTok onto phones or devices allows for the injection of malicious software by China. Only the third source creates serious risk.
TikTok and National Security (csis.org)
3 – (Council on Foreign Relations) For the first time in its sixteen-year history, CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey found that the leading concern among foreign policy experts lies within U.S. borders: the possibility of domestic terrorism and political violence in the wake of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
2024: What’s the Worst That Could Happen? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
4 – (Joe Russo, Dulani Woods, Samuel Peterson, Michael J. D. Vermeer, Brian A. Jackson – RAND Corporation) Drones represent a serious emerging threat to the safety and security of correctional institutions across the United States. Conspirators are using drones to introduce various contraband, such as drugs and cell phones, into correctional institutions. In some cases, drones have been used to deliver weapons and tools to facilitate escape.
Countering the Emerging Drone Threat to Correctional Security | RAND
Venezuela
(Geoff Ramsey – Atlantic Council) Ahead of a July 28 presidential election in which their top candidate is banned from participating, Venezuela’s opposition has three difficult choices: It can boycott the election. It can risk a deep fracture in its coalition. Or it can name a replacement candidate. So far, it is likely to run a “plan B” candidate in the unfair process, but the challenge will be moving forward with this plan while maintaining a united front.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
