LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
George Henneke (ASPI The Strategist) writes that the 2023 Strategic Defense Review calls for a nationwide effort to secure Australia’s interests in an increasingly volatile world. A fundamental component of this realignment must be the innovation strategy. Innovation is the lifeblood of the defense industry. It’s not just about equipping forces with cutting-edge technologies but about creating an international comparative advantage, encouraging exports that drive profitability and drive investment in Australian businesses
A strategy for defence innovation across the supply chain | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Bangladesh
Soumya Bhowmick (East Asia Forum) writes about the issues that risk negatively impacting Bangladesh’s post-pandemic growth performance. In late 2022, the country joined Sri Lanka and Pakistan in requesting an International Monetary Fund loan of about $4.5 billion
Factors impacting Bangladesh’s positive pandemic recovery | East Asia Forum
Belarus
Grigory Ioffe (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about the ‘triangular’ model to analyze the political situation in Belarus: the Lukashenko regime; the opposition, largely in exile, led by Tikhanovskaya; ordinary citizens. The latter, according to various observers, are mostly not in favor of the opposition
The Belarusian Triangle: Regime, Opposition, and Ordinary Belarusians – Jamestown
China
1 – Angela Huyue Zhang (ASPI The Strategist) writes that, in 2017, Chinese leaders set a goal of achieving global supremacy in artificial intelligence by 2030. But obstacles to success have proven substantial and continue to multiply. In response to American initiatives to limit Chinese advancement in AI, the Chinese government has mobilized a society-wide effort to accelerate the development of AI by channeling massive investments into the sector and limiting obstacles regulatory
China’s short-sighted AI regulation | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
2 – Chen Long (ThinkChina) writes that, while the narrative of de-risking and reshoring is popular in the media, there is little evidence that companies have left or are leaving China en masse. The decline in foreign direct investment may be due to the simple fact that Chinese interest rates are now much lower than those in most developed countries. That said, Beijing as to implement efforts to stabilize foreign investment
Decline in FDI may not mean investment flight from China, Economy News – ThinkChina
China – Turkmenistan
Genevieve Donnellon-May (Lowy The Interpreter) writes that China’s continued pursuit of a cross-border gas pipeline with Turkmenistan in Central Asia has implications for both the region and Australia. The Central Asia-China pipeline is a network of gas pipelines that transport natural gas from Central Asian countries – mainly Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan – to China. With a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm), similar to Nord Stream 1 in Europe, the 1,833-kilometer-long Central Asia-China gas pipeline currently comprises three sections (lines A, B and C), running from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and From Kazakhstan to the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. From there, the pipeline connects to the west-to-east gas pipeline in China, underscoring its importance in regional energy dynamics. The ongoing construction of the fourth gas pipeline (Line D), stretching from Turkmenistan to Xinjiang, is expected to increase the network’s total annual capacity to 85 billion cubic meters
Beijing digs in for the Central Asia-China gas pipeline | Lowy Institute
China – USA
Li Kang (ThinkChina) writes that political tensions between China and the United States have been a major reason for the sharp decline in people-to-people exchanges between the two countries, with study abroad programs for US students in China halted and Confucius Institutes in the United States closing in droves. Also China’s domestic policies are responsible for the decline in interest among American students
Americans studying in China will continue to trend downwards, Society News – ThinkChina
Climate Action
Joseph W. Kane, Adie Tomer (Brookings) write that, due to the growing impacts of climate change, awareness for adequate climate policies is increasing in the USA
Critical Commodities
Lai Oi Lai (ThinkChina) writes that, amid the global race to electric vehicles, European countries and the United States are doubling down on efforts and investments to build an even more localized and vertically integrated battery supply chain. This comes at a time when China dominates the global lithium-ion battery supply chain. As the rush for commodities continues, Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and Singapore can play an increasingly significant role
[Big read] Global fight for lithium battery raw materials heats up, Economy News – ThinkChina
Democratic Republic of Congo
Michelle Gavin (Council on Foreign Relations) writes about the December 20 elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo which, according to the Author, will not open new perspectives on insecurity in the eastern part of the country, corruption scandals and poverty
Japan – Australia
Ian Satchwell (ASPI The Strategist) writes about Japan’s growing fears over energy security and the impact on relations with Australia
Nagorno-Karabakh
William Gourlay (ASPI The Strategist) writes about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, ‘reintegrated’ into Azerbaijan. More than 100,000 Armenians have fled the region. Now, a humanitarian crisis looms on the southern perimeter of Europe. Ethnic relations are often tense in the Caucasus region, with its complexity: control of Nagorno-Karabakh has passed, since 1400, between Armenian, Turkish, Persian and Russian hands
The little-known conflict causing a ruckus in the Caucasus | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Red Sea Region
John Letzing (World Economic Forum) writes that attacks on trade routes in the Red Sea region have spurred calls for greater security. The incidents come in the wake of trade upheavals triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supply chain malaise linked to the pandemic. We have the need to adapt to a globalized era in which local conflicts can easily have broader implications
Will a regional conflict re-tangle global supply chains? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Russia – Arctic
Paul Globe (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about Moscow’s growing difficulties in maintaining a strategic role in the Arctic
Moscow Faces More Problems in Achieving Its Ambitious Plans in the Arctic – Jamestown
Russia – Iran
Fuad Shahbazov (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that Iran, in the last year, has made important steps in the modernization and development of its air and naval forces. Growing cooperation with Moscow has facilitated such advances. The Author describes the threat to Western interests
Increased Russian-Iranian Defense Cooperation Poses Threat to Ukraine and the West – Jamestown
Syria – Arab League
William Gourlay (Lowy The Interpreter) writes that, in May this year, the leaders of the Arab world readmitted Syria to the Arab League, after having expelled the country in 2011, imposing economic sanctions and calling for an end to attacks against civilians by the Assad regime: Assad reserved the right to do what he wants at home. Syrian opposition activists and displaced people have responded with dismay to the Arab League’s rehabilitation of Assad, some calling it a “great betrayal” of the Syrian people, given the 12 years of human rights abuses they have endured at Assad’s hands. Despite his war crimes, Assad’s normalization as part of the Arab world seemed complete in November, when he traveled to Saudi Arabia to attend an Arab summit on the ongoing crisis in Gaza
The redemption of Bashar al-Assad? | Lowy Institute
USA
Joseph S. Nye (ASPI The Strategist) writes about the moral exceptionality of the United States in the current international situation
American exceptionalism in 2024 | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
USA – Ukraine
Experts from the Atlantic Council think tank analyze the contents and possible outcomes of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington DC
Zelenskyy visits DC at Ukraine’s most dangerous moment – Atlantic Council
- Per un lavoro comune e complesso nella pace / For a common and complex work in peace (Intersections – Marco Emanuele)
- COP28. E’ comunque l’inizio della fine per i combustibili fossili / COP28. However, it is the beginning of the end for fossil fuels (Climate Action – Marzia Giglioli)
- Pace. Dal compromesso alla mediazione / Peace. From compromise to mediation (Intersections – Marco Emanuele)
- La profonda complessità della pace / The profound complexity of peace (Intersections – Marco Emanuele)
- L’intelligenza artificiale e l’economia globale / Artificial intelligence and the global economy (Intersections – Marzia Giglioli)
- La Cina, i Talebani e il rame di Aynak / China, the Taliban and Aynak copper (Diplomacy & International Relations – Carlo Rebecchi)
- Scuole e università: nel profondo del conflitto / Schools and universities: in the depths of the conflict (Intersections – Marzia Giglioli)
- In-compiutezza / In-completeness (Complex Research – M.E.)
- De-generatività politica / Political ge-generativeness (Complex Research – M.E.)
- Re-imparando / Re-learning (Complex Research – M.E.)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
