BUSSOLA GEOSTRATEGICA-CAMMINO COMPLESSO
GEOSTRATEGIC COMPASS – COMPLEX PATH
BOUSSOLE GÉOSTRATÉGIQUE – PARCOURS COMPLEXE
Ciò che accade in Italia, particolarmente nelle regioni dell’Emilia-Romagna e delle Marche a seguito di una concentrazione eccessiva di pioggie, e la crisi umanitaria causata anche dalla siccità che sta aggravando ulteriormente la già precaria situazione umanitaria in Somalia, sono fenomeni separati e separabili ? Si, secondo il pensiero lineare; no, secondo il pensiero complesso.
Rifondare un “giudizio storico” significa prendere atto, anzitutto, che il mondo, particolarmente nel cambio di era che stiamo attraversando e che ci sta trasformando, è un unicum non separabile. Cosa lega l’Emilia-Romagna e le Marche con la Somalia ? Lo chiamiamo destino planetario, respiro della storia comune, vincolo di ogni parte nel tutto del mondo-mosaico.
Abbiamo perso molto tempo, rinchiudendoci nell’illusione (fattasi auto-inganno) che bastasse lasciar fare a qualche “mano invisibile” perché tutto si aggiustasse, perché la globalizzazione trasformasse – come d’incanto – i commerci e l’interdipendenza economica (certamente importanti) in pace, giustizia, benessere diffuso, sostenibilità. Sappiamo che non è andata così.
Oggi sappiamo che rischiamo di essere vittime del ritorno delle storie. Si tratterebbe di un destino che noi stessi abbiamo tracciato, una deriva della quale siamo noi umani gli unici responsabili. Le classi dirigenti, particolarmente negli ultimi trent’anni, hanno rinunciato a elaborare e a praticare mediazioni e visioni politiche secondo complessità: l’auto-inganno ha funzionato e i mondi, nell’avvicinarsi, rischiano oggi di separarsi irreparabilmente. Ci troviamo, a quasi un quarto di ventunesimo secolo, ancora immersi nella linearità di un pensiero apolitico che non sente il respiro della storia comune ma solo quello del proprio particolare chiuso nei confini di Stati sempre più burocratici.
E’ la banalità del lineare, ricco di analisti convinti di poter affrontare le crisi degenerative una alla volta e di poter governare le relazioni internazionali separando nettamente i mondi in una tattica del de-coupling. Per superare la banalità del lineare serve la profondità del complesso, unico pensiero in grado di leggere, e di reggere, l’impatto potentissimo del futuro già presente.
(english version)
Are what is happening in Italy, particularly in the regions of Emilia-Romagna and Marche as a result of excessive rainfall, and the humanitarian crisis also caused by the drought that is further aggravating the already precarious humanitarian situation in Somalia, separate and separable phenomena? Yes, according to linear thinking; no, according to complex thinking.
Refounding a ‘historical judgement’ means first of all acknowledging that the world, particularly in the changing era we are going through and which is transforming us, is a unicum that cannot be separated. What links Emilia-Romagna and Marche with Somalia? We call it planetary destiny, the breath of common history, the bond of each part in the whole of the world-mosaic.
We have wasted a lot of time, locking ourselves in the illusion (which has become self-deception) that it was enough to leave it to some ‘invisible hand’ for everything to work out, for globalisation to transform – as if by magic – trade and economic interdependence (certainly important) into peace, justice, widespread well-being, sustainability. We know that this was not the case.
Today we know that we risk being victims of the return of the stories. This would be a fate that we ourselves have mapped out, a drift for which we humans are solely responsible. The ruling classes, particularly in the last thirty years, have given up elaborating and practising mediations and political visions according to complexity: self-deception has worked and the worlds, in coming closer together, now risk separating irreparably. We find ourselves, almost a quarter of the way through the twenty-first century, still immersed in the linearity of an apolitical thought that does not feel the breath of common history but only that of its own particular closed within the confines of increasingly bureaucratic States.
It is the banality of the linear, full of analysts convinced that they can tackle degenerative crises one at a time and govern international relations by clearly separating worlds in a tactic of de-coupling. To overcome the banality of the linear, we need the depth of the complex, the only thinking capable of reading, and withstanding, the powerful impact of the future that is already present.
(version française)
Ce qui se passe en Italie, en particulier dans les régions de l’Émilie-Romagne et des Marches en raison de précipitations excessives, et la crise humanitaire également causée par la sécheresse qui aggrave encore la situation humanitaire déjà précaire en Somalie, sont-ils des phénomènes séparés et séparables ? Oui, selon la pensée linéaire ; non, selon la pensée complexe.
Refonder un “jugement historique”, c’est d’abord reconnaître que le monde, surtout dans l’ère de changement que nous vivons et qui nous transforme, est un unicum indissociable. Qu’est-ce qui lie l’Émilie-Romagne et les Marches à la Somalie ? Nous appelons cela le destin planétaire, le souffle de l’histoire commune, le lien de chaque partie dans l’ensemble d’un monde-mosaïque.
Nous avons perdu beaucoup de temps en nous enfermant dans l’illusion (devenue auto-illusion) qu’il suffisait de s’en remettre à une “main invisible” pour que tout s’arrange, pour que la mondialisation transforme – comme par magie – le commerce et l’interdépendance économique (certes importants) en paix, en justice, en bien-être généralisé, en durabilité. Nous savons que cela n’a pas été le cas.
Aujourd’hui, nous savons que nous risquons d’être victimes du retour des histoires. Ce serait un destin que nous avons nous-mêmes tracé, une dérive dont nous, les humains, sommes les seuls responsables. Les classes dirigeantes, surtout depuis trente ans, ont renoncé à élaborer et à pratiquer des médiations et des visions politiques en fonction de la complexité : l’auto-illusion a fonctionné et les mondes, en se rapprochant, risquent maintenant de se séparer irrémédiablement. Nous nous trouvons, à près d’un quart du XXIe siècle, toujours plongés dans la linéarité d’une pensée apolitique qui ne sent pas le souffle de l’histoire commune mais seulement celui de son enfermement particulier dans les limites d’États de plus en plus bureaucratiques.
C’est la banalité du linéaire, pleine d’analystes convaincus qu’ils peuvent affronter les crises dégénératives une à une et gouverner les relations internationales en séparant clairement les mondes dans une tactique de de-coupling. Pour dépasser la banalité du linéaire, il faut la profondeur du complexe, la seule pensée capable de lire et de résister à l’impact puissant du futur déjà présent.
PROSPETTIVE GEOSTRATEGICHE DAI THINK TANK
GEOSTRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES FROM THINK TANK
PERSPECTIVES GÉOSTRATÉGIQUES DES THINK TANKS
Worlds
Africa
Belinda Archibong e Francis Annan affrontano il tema dell’importanza di politiche per la salute mentale particolarmente in Paesi a basso reddito. Focus sull’Africa – Belinda Archibong and Francis Annan address the importance of mental health policies particularly in low-income countries. Focus on Africa – Belinda Archibong et Francis Annan abordent l’importance des politiques de santé mentale, en particulier dans les pays à faible revenu. Focus sur l’Afrique – Using information and communication technology to improve mental health in Africa (brookings.edu)
China
Alicia Garcia Herrero scrive dell’attività di prestiti internazionali da parte di Pechino. Il confronto con il Giappone degli anni ’70 – Alicia Garcia Herrero writes about Beijing’s international lending activity. The comparison with Japan in the 1970s – Alicia Garcia Herrero écrit sur l’activité de prêt international de Pékin. La comparaison avec le Japon des années 1970 – China’s overseas lending needs a full-fledged debt restructuring , Economy News – ThinkChina
Lance Gore riflette sulle politiche di de-coupling rispetto alla Cina e di come possa “attrezzarsi” Pechino – Lance Gore reflects on de-coupling policies vis-à-vis China and how Beijing can ‘gear up’ – Lance Gore réfléchit aux politiques de découplage vis-à-vis de la Chine et à la manière dont Pékin peut “se préparer” – Why is China struggling with identity politics both within and outside the nation? , Politics News – ThinkChina
Europe – China
Marc Julienne, partendo dalla visita di Stato del Presidente francese Macron a Pechino, riflette sulla posizione europea verso la Cina – Marc Julienne, starting from French President Macron’s state visit to Beijing, reflects on the European position towards China – Marc Julienne, à partir de la visite d’État du président français Macron à Pékin, réfléchit à la position européenne à l’égard de la Chine – EU’s China policy staying on track despite intensifying debate , Politics News – ThinkChina
Russia
La Camera bassa del Parlamento russo ha votato all’unanimità per ritirarsi formalmente dal Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europa. Già otto anni fa Mosca aveva interrotto la sua partecipazione – The lower house of the Russian Parliament voted unanimously to formally withdraw from the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. Already eight years ago, Moscow had discontinued its participation – La chambre basse du Parlement russe a voté à l’unanimité le retrait formel du Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. Il y a déjà huit ans, Moscou avait mis fin à sa participation – Russia’s Parliament votes to scrap Cold War armed forces deal (defensenews.com)
Russia – China
Wong Siew Fong spiega cosa significa, per la Cina, l’apertura del porto russo di Vladivostock per il trasporto di beni nella regione nord-orientale del Dragone – Wong Siew Fong explains what the opening of the Russian port of Vladivostock means for China for the transportation of goods to the north-eastern region of the Dragon – Wong Siew Fong explique ce que l’ouverture du port russe de Vladivostock signifie pour la Chine en ce qui concerne le transport de marchandises vers la région nord-est du Dragon – Russia opening Vladivostok port to China after 163 years, Economy News – ThinkChina
Thailand
Karen Lee and Gregory B. Poling scrivono delle elezioni svoltesi il 14 maggio, le prime dopo il 2019, con l’affermazione dei partiti di opposizione Move Forward e Pheu Thai. Ora la sfida è riuscire a governare – Karen Lee and Gregory B. Poling write about the elections that took place on 14 May, the first after 2019, with the opposition parties Move Forward and Pheu Thai winning. Now the challenge is to govern – Karen Lee et Gregory B. Poling décrivent les élections qui ont eu lieu le 14 mai, les premières après 2019, et qui ont vu la victoire des partis d’opposition Move Forward et Pheu Thai. Il s’agit maintenant de gouverner – 2023 Thai Election Results: An Opposition Win but Unclear Path Ahead (csis.org)
Turkey
Steven A. Cook scrive del ballottaggio delle elezioni presidenziali in Turchia che sembra favorire il presidente in carica Erdogan – Steven A. Cook writes about the presidential election runoff in Turkey that seems to favour incumbent President Erdogan – Steven A. Cook s’exprime sur le second tour de l’élection présidentielle en Turquie, qui semble favoriser le président sortant Erdogan – Here’s How to Read Turkey’s Election Results—So Far | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
UK – China
Zeno Leoni scrive dell’approccio strategico dell’UK rispetto alla Cina – Zeno Leoni writes about the UK’s strategic approach to China – Zeno Leoni s’exprime sur l’approche stratégique du Royaume-Uni à l’égard de la Chine – The UK’s ambiguity in dealing with China: Ingenuity amid diminishing influence?, Politics News – ThinkChina
USA
Daniel Byman sulla minaccia della violenza politica per la società e per la democrazia americana – Daniel Byman on the threat of political violence to American society and democracy – Daniel Byman sur la menace que représente la violence politique pour la société et la démocratie américaines – Countering organized violence in the United States (brookings.edu)
Mark Muro, Joseph Parilla e Martha Ross scrivono di uno sviluppo economico USA “place-based” e della trasformazione della geografica economica del Paese – Mark Muro, Joseph Parilla and Martha Ross write about “place-based” US economic development and the transformation of the country’s economic geography – Mark Muro, Joseph Parilla et Martha Ross s’intéressent au développement économique “place-based” des États-Unis et à la transformation de la géographie économique du pays – What state and local leaders need to know about the federal government’s regional Tech Hubs competition (brookings.edu)
Clementine G. Starling, Marek Jestra e Julia Siegel scrivono del decennio decisivo per gli Stati Uniti, soprattutto guardando alla competizione con la Cina. Gli autori discutono i fondi stanziati per la Difesa per gli anni fiscali 2023 e 2024 – Clementine G. Starling, Marek Jestra and Julia Siegel write about the decisive decade for the United States, especially looking at the competition with China. The authors discuss the funds allocated for defence for the fiscal years 2023 and 2024 – Clementine G. Starling, Marek Jestra et Julia Siegel s’intéressent à la décennie décisive pour les États-Unis, en particulier à la concurrence avec la Chine. Les auteurs discutent des fonds alloués à la défense pour les années fiscales 2023 et 2024 – Money talks: Here’s what the president’s budget says about the US military edge – Atlantic Council
USA – Philippines
Narupat Rattanakit scrive delle rinnovate relazioni tra USA e Filippine, dopo la più grande esercitazione militare congiunta di sempre. Sullo sfondo vi è la situazione geopolitica del Mar Cinese Meridionale – Narupat Rattanakit writes about the renewed US-Philippine relations after the largest ever joint military exercise. In the background is the geopolitical situation in the South China Sea – Narupat Rattanakit évoque le renouvellement des relations entre les États-Unis et les Philippines après le plus grand exercice militaire conjoint jamais organisé. En toile de fond, la situation géopolitique en mer de Chine méridionale – Renewal and realignment in the US–Philippines alliance | East Asia Forum
War in Ukraine
Lise Howard e Michael E. O’Hanlon riflettono sul futuro della pace dopo la guerra scatenata dalla Russia: sicurezza dell’Ucraina, rapporti con Mosca, strategie euro-atlantiche – Lise Howard and Michael E. O’Hanlon reflect on the future of peace after the war triggered by Russia: Ukraine’s security, relations with Moscow, Euro-Atlantic strategies – Lise Howard et Michael E. O’Hanlon réfléchissent à l’avenir de la paix après la guerre déclenchée par la Russie : sécurité de l’Ukraine, relations avec Moscou, stratégies euro-atlantiques – Backstopping Ukraine’s long-term security: Toward an Atlantic-Asian security community (brookings.edu)
Global topics
Inequality
Zia Qureshi approfondisce il tema delle disuguaglianze sia rispetto alla governance democratica dei Paesi che in chiave di stabilità geopolitica – Zia Qureshi delves into the subject of inequalities both with respect to the democratic governance of countries and in terms of geopolitical stability – Zia Qureshi se penche sur le sujet des inégalités tant au niveau de la gouvernance démocratique des pays qu’au niveau de la stabilité géopolitique – Rising inequality: A major issue of our time (brookings.edu)
