Geostrategic magazine (october 25, 2022 pm)

• Sovranità alimentare non è sovranismo – Food sovereignty is not sovereignism
• Sovranità, nazione e società aperta – Sovereignty, nation and open society

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

• (Democracy) Thomas Carothers, Benjamin Press, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As the world faces a democratic recession, many of the most common explanations fall short. But looking more closely at antidemocratic leaders’ motivations and methods reveals valuable insights about different types of backsliding and how international actors should respond. Understanding and Responding to Global Democratic Backsliding
• (Perspectives) Kayhan Barzegar, Institut Montaigne. Some argue that the Ukrainian war accelerated de-Westernization, along with emerging prospects of “regional multilateralism” versus the current Western “global multilateralism”. For Kayhan Barzegar, Chair of the Political Science and International Relations Department of the Science and Research Branch of the Islamic Azad University, Western sanctions following the invasion could push Russia closer to Asia, potentially creating an “Asian geopolitical alliance”. In such a situation, a new bipolar world order would emerge, with the non-Western world on one side and the Western world on another. Towards an Asian Geopolitical Alliance

WORLDS

• (Arab World) Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Across the Arab world, different education reform initiatives have had varying levels of success in different contexts. This paper explores some types of education reform that could serve as groundwork for broader change. Innovation and New Directions: Searching for Novel Paths in Arab Education Reform – Carnegie Middle East Center – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (carnegie-mec.org)
• (China – Vietnam)  Xu Keyue, Global Times. General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Central Committee Nguyen Phu Trong will be the first foreign leader to pay an official visit to China by invitation after the conclusion of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Vietnam’s communist party chief to be first foreign leader to visit China after key CPC congress, highlights priority of bilateral ties
• (Europe) Georg Zachmann, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Ben McWilliams, Bruegel. European natural gas imports
• (Haiti) UN News. Haitians are coming together to tackle the recent outbreak of cholera in the country, says the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in the country. Ulrika Richardson, the most senior UN humanitarian official in Haiti, visited a number of cholera treatment centres in the country’s capital, Port-au-Prince, where she met medical staff treating patients with the disease. ‘Haitians are coming together to tackle the cholera crisis’: A UN Resident Coordinator Blog
• (Italy) Leonardo Cadamuro, Francesco Papadia, Bruegel. An analysis of German-Italian spreads under five Italian governments shows that the gap was biggest when Italian policies worried markets most. National policies are the best protection against euro-area financial fragmentation risks
• (Malaysia – Myanmar) UN News. Malaysia’s forced return of asylum-seekers to Myanmar has meant that hundreds of Myanmar nationals have been “sent back against their will” to the troubled country in the last two months, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said on Tuesday. Malaysia’s forced return of Myanmar’s most vulnerable must stop: UNHCR
• (Myanmar – UN) Kelley Eckels Currie, Center for a New American Security. During last month’s high level session of the 77th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), nearly 700 global civil society organizations sent a scathing letter to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres demanding that the U.N. and its organs stop legitimizing the military junta that seized power in Myanmar in a February 2021 coup.  Democracies Must Stop Playing Games with Myanmar’s Representation at the United Nations
• (Organization of Asia-Pacific News Agencies) IRNA. Members of the Organization of Asia-Pacific News Agencies (OANA) in the final communiqué of their meeting in Tehran on Tuesday evening emphasized the need to use new ways to develop media cooperation plus using new technologies to respond to the needs of the audience. OANA final communiqué stresses strengthening media cooperation
• (Russia) Zsolt Darvas, Catarina Martins, Bruegel. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Central Bank of Russia stopped publishing detailed trade data but continued releasing summary indicators, such as for the  current-account surplus, which reached its highest-ever level in the second quarter of 2022. Russian foreign trade tracker
• (Russia – Ukraine) Ukrinform. If Russian troops blow the Kakhovka HPP up, the temporarily occupied Crimea will have no water supply for the next 10-15 years. Danilov: Crimea will have no water supply for 10-15 years if Russians blow Kakhovka HPP up
• (Russia – Ukraine) Raphael S. Cohen and Gian Gentile, RAND Corporation. From the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, a segment of Western elite and public opinion—including politicians, experts, and commentators—has proffered any number of explanations about why the West cannot or should not support a Ukrainian victory. When the Russian invasion began in February, there was the argument that Russian military dominance would render Western support to Ukraine futile. Then, as the war dragged on, a claim emerged that although Moscow’s initial plan for a lightning invasion was foiled, its forces would slowly but surely grind their way to inevitable victory. Now, as the Ukrainian military drives Russian forces into retreat, proponents of cutting a deal with Russia have settled on a new narrative: that the United States and its partners need to pull back on support for Ukraine, lest they actually corner Russian President Vladimir Putin and he, in turn, decides to blow up the world. Why Putin’s Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake
• (Russia – Ukraine) TASS. Moscow welcomes French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to engage Pope Francis and the U.S. leadership in talks on Ukraine in terms of finding possible solutions, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday. Moscow welcomes possible involvement of Vatican, Washington in talks on Ukraine crisis
• (Russia – Ukraine) Ukrinform. Russia uses phosphorous munitions, which are prohibited by international documents, in Velyka Novosilka, Donetsk region. Russia using phosphorus munitions in Donetsk region
• (Russia – Ukraine) Ukrinform. Ankara supports the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, including Crimea and other occupied territories. Turkey calls on Russia to immediately release imprisoned Crimean Tatars
• (Russia – Ukraine) Peter Graff, Reuters. In Russia’s latest advocacy campaign over its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has focused on accusations that Kyiv might be planning to use a so-called “dirty bomb” – a conventional explosive device laced with toxic nuclear material. Explainer: What is a dirty bomb and why is Russia talking about one now?
• (Rwanda – UK) Tim Reid, RUSI. There are many similarities between Paul Kagame’s regime and that of Vladimir Putin, yet the UK continues to support the Rwandan dictator. UK Support for Kagame Undermines the Campaign Against Putin
• (South China Sea) Benjamin J. Sacks, RAND Corporation. The South China Sea is one of the world’s most important, strategic, and contentious bodies of water. Yet the origins and development of littoral states’ respective claims and the development of international law as it relates to the South China Sea are complicated, confusing, and often poorly understood. This Perspective provides a primer on the South China Sea’s political geography — that is, the study of state and nonstate actors and their varied relationships with spaces for territorial purposes. It focuses on the South China Sea’s physical geography; the development of littoral states’ respective claims to portions of the South China Sea, including islands, rocks, and low-tide elevations; and the increasingly important role of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The Political Geography of the South China Sea Disputes: A RAND Research Primer
• (UK) Chatham House. Experts from across Chatham House examine the range of domestic and foreign policy issues facing Rishi Sunak as he prepares to lead the UK government. What are the priorities for the new UK prime minister?
• (UK) John Kampfer, Chatham House. After all the theatricality and derision over the UK’s political process in the last few months, Rishi Sunak may well be eventually judged on terms set by one of his predecessors. The new prime minister will, declared Theresa May, provide the ‘calm, competent, pragmatic leadership our country needs at this deeply challenging time’. Hard times ahead for Sunak to restore UK’s credibility
• (Ukraine) Ukrinform. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is having an enormous impact on all fields of the young democracy. Violating the Geneva Conventions and all the existing norms of international law, Russian occupation forces daily commit war crimes and acts of terrorism for no reason. KYIV RYSING – A Roadmap to Ukraine’s Future
• (Ukraine) Bruegel. What are the ideal outcomes for Ukraine’s energy system, and what steps must be taken to achieve them? Rethinking Ukraine’s energy sector
• (USA) Milan Vaishnav, Nitya Labh, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Ahead of the midterms, a new Carnegie-YouGov poll reveals the political views of Asian American voters in California—one of the fastest-growing groups of voters in the nation’s largest state. While they lean Democratic, they also have lingering uncertainties about the party’s future. How Will California’s Asian Americans Vote in November?