Geostrategic environment (october 4, 2022)

The Global Eye’s open and informal research – Research – Complexity and risk in the perspective of glocalisation

The Global Eye’s daily briefs – Editor, The Global Eye

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

P.M. (ITALIAN TIME)

TOPICS

• (Cybersecurity) October 4, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Vulnerability exploitation accounted for 52% of ransomware incidents investigated by Secureworks over the past 12 months, making it the number one initial access vector for threat actors, the vendor claimed in a new report. Bug Exploitation Now Top Ransomware Access Vector
• (Cybersecurity) October 4, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Russian threat actors have begun launching cyber-attacks at targets inside their country, in retaliation for what they see as a needless war with Ukraine, according to a new report. Russian Hackers Take Aim at Kremlin Targets: Report
• (Defense – Military – Security) October 4, 2022. The Defense Post. The US and five allied nations have joined a week-long air force partnership event to discuss the maintenance and operations of the F-16 Fighting Falcon in Bucharest, Romania. US, Romania Host F-16 Maintenance and Operations Event for Allies
• (Energy) October 2022. IEA. This year’s winter gas season opens with extreme natural gas price levels and volatility, caused by unprecedented uncertainty of supply as Russia steeply curtails its pipeline deliveries to Europe. The result is considerable market tension in alternative sources of supply. Security of supply has become a top priority in Europe and other importing regions as a total cut-off in Russian flows to Europe cannot be ruled out, creating further tensions and demand destruction for all competing LNG importers. The gas crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has caused a series of market adjustments. European buyers have strongly increased their LNG procurement, resulting in market tightening and demand destruction in various importing regions. This has also had a visible impact on LNG contracting behaviours, with a return to more traditional features such as fixed-destination and longer-duration contracts. The European Union, whose member states are directly exposed to the threat of further supply cuts, has adopted a number of measures to enhance security of supply and market resilience ahead of the coming winter. This quarterly report includes the IEA’s annual Global Gas Security Review and an analysis of short-term gas market evolution to 2023. Gas Market Report, Q4-2022 – Analysis
• (Innovation & Health) October 4, 2022.  Cordelia Kenney,  Rachel Silverman, Center for Global Development. Over the last century, scientific and technological innovation has led to unprecedented improvements in health outcomes—yet research and development (R&D) investments and progress to address health threats has been uneven. Commercial R&D has focused where investors can expect substantial financial returns: rich countries, the diseases that affect them, and high-tech solutions designed for the richest and most sophisticated systems. Despite supplemental funding from philanthropic and government grants, R&D to address many leading causes of death and disability—especially those that primarily affect low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) or insure against future risk—has been consistently underfunded relative to potential health gain. This implies that many untapped opportunities remain to dramatically improve global health and welfare via biomedical innovation. The Next Game Changers: A Priority Innovation Agenda for Global Health
• (Special Drawing Rights) October 4, 2022. Mark Plant, Center for Global Development. Global reserves can serve as a global public good, facilitating the short-term global recovery from the economic impacts of the pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the longer-term global transition to a sustainable and equitable economic future. Strategic allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) could facilitate sharing of global reserves with low- and middle-income countries to the mutual benefit of advanced and developing countries. This will require the development of new SDR sharing mechanisms, in which multilateral development banks could be instrumental. Other SDR reforms should also be pursued. Is There a Better Way to Use Global Reserves?

WORLDS

• (Abraham Accords – Middle East) October 3, 2022. Jon Hoffman, The National Interest. Having just marked two years since their ratification, the Abraham Accords continue to represent a top-down regional order destined to yield instability, not peace. The Abraham Accords and the Imposed Middle East Order
• (Australia) October 4, 2022. Marcus Hellyer, The Strategist. I’ve often thought that Australia’s submarine transition is a wicked problem, perhaps one of the most wicked in the public policy arena. A wicked problem is one that is difficult or even impossible to solve because key stakeholders have fundamentally different interests and requirements. No solution can satisfy them all. It’s not just possible, but inevitable that intelligent people will be committed to very different solutions to wicked problems. Australia’s ‘damn the torpedoes’ path to nuclear-powered submarines
• (Australia) October 4, 2022. Joe Saballa, The Defense Post. The government of Australia is investing 500 million Australian dollars ($325 million) in next-generation weapons and equipment for the Australian Defence Forces. Australia Investing $500M in Next-Generation Military Weapons
• (Australia – India – Indonesia) October 4, 2022. Premesha Saha, ORF. The Australia-India-Indonesia trilateral foreign ministers meeting took place along the sidelines of the 77^th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 77) in New York. This was the first in-person meeting of this trilateral grouping and has been in the pipeline for a long time. In September 2020, the foreign ministers of the three countries were to hold a virtual meeting which was to be followed by a defence ministers’ meeting of the three countries as well. In New York, the foreign ministers discussed the prospects of strengthening cooperation in the framework of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), Indo-Pacific, G20 and the blue economy. For so long, this trilateral grouping remained confined to the level of the Senior Officials Meeting (SOM), but with this meeting, it has now been elevated to the ministerial level. The Australia-India-Indonesia trilateral finally takes off
• (Australia – South Korea) October 4, 2022. Sung-Young Kim, East Asia Forum. South Korea and Australia’s trade relationship is one of the most complementary in the world. Seoul is an exporter of high-tech manufactured goods — semiconductors, cars and electronics — and relies almost completely on imports for energy. Australia, on the other hand, is an importer of South Korea’s manufactured products and a major energy supplier (especially coal) to South Korea. Jump-starting Australia–ROK energy cooperation
• (China – Shanghai Cooperation Organisation – Central Asia) October 4, 2022. Bonnie S. Glaser, Vina Nadjibulla, GMF. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit took place on September 15–16 in Uzbekistan’s Samarkand. The leaders of China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, as well as the leaders of observer countries Iran, Belarus, and Mongolia attended. In addition, the leaders of Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Turkmenistan joined the summit as special guests. This was the first in-person SCO summit since June 2019 and was also Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first trip outside of China since early 2020. As the SCO marks 21 years since its founding, the question remains: has it achieved Beijing’s goals and advanced Chinese interests?  China, the SCO, and Central Asia
• (Finland) October 4, 2022. FATF. Since the 2019 assessment of Finland’s measures to tackle money laundering and terrorist financing, the country has taken a number of actions to strengthen its framework. Documents – Financial Action Task Force
• (Finland – NATO) October 4, 2022. Matti Pesu, Samu Paukkunen, The National Interest. Russia’s February 2022 assault on Ukraine forced Finland to reassess the foundations of its security doctrine, resulting in Helsinki’s bid to join NATO. After brief hesitation, a surprised Sweden followed its closest partner. The Nordic duo has received exceptional bipartisan support in the United States. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, for instance, called their accession “a slam dunk” for American security. The view was overwhelmingly shared in the Senate, which voted 95-1 to add Finland and Sweden to NATO. America’s allies have also welcomed their membership ambitions. By early October, twenty-eight of NATO’s thirty member states had ratified their entry into the transatlantic alliance. Finland Will Bolster NATO’s Northeastern Flank
• (India) October 4, 2022. Kamal Malhotra, ORF. The G20, an informal grouping comprising 19 states and the European Union (EU) came into existence in September 1999 at the level of finance ministers but was elevated to the level of the Heads of State in 2008. It both absorbed and superseded the G7 given the rapidly changing global economic context. The United Nations, International Labour Organization (ILO), World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Trade Organisation (WTO), and Financial Stability Board are invited to participate in pre-summit meetings. Civil society organisations, think tanks, and labour and business groupings such as the C20, T20, L20, and B20 have their own parallel meetings. Can India’s presidency address the G20’s credibility crisis?
• (India – Maldives) October 4, 2022. N. Sathiya Moorthy, ORF. During his maiden visit to Maldives last weekend, Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra said that ‘The Maldives is one of the most important regional partners, and India would continue to support numerous developmental projects in the country’. True to form, the two nations formalised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s commitment to Solih in New Delhi in August for an additional US$ 100-million credit line for Male to ‘ease and facilitate numerous infrastructure projects’. India-Maldives ties: Extending additional credit lines
• (Japan) October 4, 2022. Rajaram Panda, VIF. September 27, 2022 marked an important day in Japan’s history as Japan organised a state funeral to the slain former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo at the Nippon Budokan in central Tokyo. It may be recalled that Japan’s longest-servicing leader in post-war Japan was assassinated by 42-year old Tetsuya Yamagami with scrappy hand-made gun during a campaign on 8 July in Nara. It transpired soon that Yamagami was perturbed with Abe’s perceived involvement with the Unification Church. Yamagami believed that his mother made a donation of over 100 million yen driving him into penury. He believed that Abe with his support to the Church had impoverished his family. Though a private condolence ceremony was held soon after Abe’s tragic death, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida soon announced a state funeral to honour his predecessor. A Befitting State Funeral for Abe but Fresh Challenges Confront Kishida
• (Japan) October 4, 2022. Yunchen Tian, East Asia Forum. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida recently announced that will Japan drop its strict border policy on 11 October 2022. Alongside China, Japan has some of the world’s strictest visa and entry requirements for inbound foreign visitors. The reopening of the country is an easy win for the embattled Prime Minister and his cabinet — both of which have seen a plunge in public approval following the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe. Kishida reopens the door to Japan
• (Japan) October 3, 2022. Richard Katz, East Asia Forum. Global inflation, and the rising interest rates being used to counter it, are creating a big dilemma for Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. If Japan’s domestic demand and inflation were the BOJ’s only considerations, keeping interest rates at near zero levels would seem perfectly sensible. But the side effect would be a steep plunge in the Japanese yen’s value. The Bank of Japan minds the interest rate gap
• (Morocco – China) Joe Saballa, The Defense Post. The Royal Moroccan Army has procured advanced military drones from China as part of its continuing effort to bolster its air defense capabilities. Morocco Buys Chinese Military Drones
• (Philippines) October 4, 2022. Alie Peter Neil Galeon, The Defense Post. The Philippine military has sent eight Autonomous Truck Mounted Howitzer System (ATMOS 2000) 155mm self-propelled guns to Mindanao to support counter-terrorism operations in the southern region. Philippine Army Sends 8 Self-Propelled Howitzers to Mindanao
• (Russia) October 4, 2022. Francesco Bascone, Aspenia online. Quanto credibile è la minaccia russa di usare le armi nucleari? È una eventualità che gli esperti americani ritengono improbabile ma non impossibile. Jake Sullivan, Assistente alla Sicurezza Nazionale del Presidente Biden, ha dichiarato che l’Amministrazione la prende sul serio. La minaccia nucleare russa: solo un bluff?
• (Russia) October 4, 2022. Roberto Menotti, Aspenia online.
  Il trio Putin-Medvedev-Lavrov – se questo è ciò che resta della leadership russa – sembra intento a ricostruire davvero una versione rimpicciolita e aggiornata dell’URSS, ma con esiti diversi da quelli desiderati. Sul piano interno alla Federazione Russa, la “mobilitazione parziale”, annunciata il 21 settembre per rafforzare quantitativamente la presenza militare in terra ucraina, ha coinciso con un’ulteriore stretta autoritaria, ma anche con fenomeni di dissenso diffuso e fughe di massa dal Paese. Situazioni che ricordano i giorni fatali in cui fu eretto il Muro di Berlino – chi può, scappa (in quel caso tedeschi, oggi russi). Del resto, l’emorragia di professionisti e giovani era iniziata ben prima della mobilitazione militare, come attestano i numeri. In sostanza, il regime con questa nuova iniziativa si è imposto una “auto-sanzione”: fuga di forza lavoro, di cervelli, di contribuenti, e creazione in un colpo solo di un contingente di esuli ostili. La crisi distopica della Russia
• (Russia – Europe) October 4, 2022. Emre Gurkan Abay, Anadolu Agency. The number of European countries suffering from the gas supply cut from Russia’s state-owned Gazprom is growing every day at a time when winter is fast approaching. Russia’s gas supply cutoff to European countries growing
• (Russia – Europe) October 3, 2022. Emily Holland. The blasts that tore through the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines last Monday have already blown up whatever was left of five decades of German energy policy. On Sept. 6, Swedish seismologists reported several underwater explosions off the coast of Denmark. Minutes later, pipeline monitors in Germany reported a 94 percent drop in pressure in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Currently, there are three separate major leaks in the controversial Gazprom pipelines that once directly shipped Russian natural gas to German consumers. While the circumstances of the explosions are still unclear, Danish and Polish leaders have stated that the likely cause is sabotage, while a Ukrainian official deemed the explosion a “terrorist attack planned by Russia.”. Permanent Rupture: The European-Russian Energy Relationship Has Ended with Nord Stream
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. Margaryta Khvostova, Dmytro Kryvosheiev. ECFR. Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation is a sign of desperation. Yet Ukraine will still need weapons deliveries to help respond to the arrival of thousands of Russian conscripts. No partial measures: How Ukraine can meet the challenge of Russia’s mobilisation
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. Sven Biscop, Aspenia online. “In war everything is simple, but the simplest thing is difficult. Those difficulties add up and cause friction, which nobody can really imagine who has not witnessed war”. Thus Clausewitz. An effective plan of attack is based on a simple idea, for a plan that is too complex to explain to one’s own commanders, will not be executed. But the best plans go awry, first of all because, naturally, the opponent also has a plan. This renders war very unpredictable per definition, as Vladimir Putin has experienced – as well as the many military and academic analysts in the West. Ukraine: military offensives, hybrid attacks – and no peace in sight
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. Ottavia Credi, Michelangelo Freyrie, Affari Internazionali. Dopo più di sette mesi di guerra tra Russia e Ucraina, uno dei primi insegnamenti che possiamo trarre dall’invasione russa dell’Ucraina è che molti dei pericoli che minacciano gli eserciti moderni provengono dal cielo. L’uso massiccio di sistemi d’arma come droni, missili, razzi, artiglieria, loitering munitions (i cosiddetti “droni kamikaze”) e mortai sta infatti avendo un pesante impatto sulle operazioni militari. Durante l’ultima contro-offensiva ucraina, la campagna di bombardamento contro assetti e linee di approvvigionamento russe ha fortemente degradato le capacità degli invasori. Difesa aerea ravvicinata: le lezioni per l’Italia dalla guerra russo-ucraina
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. Michelangelo Freyrie, Affari Internazionali. La decisione del Cremlino di annettere alla Russia le regioni ucraine attualmente occupate, così come la mobilitazione “parziale” ormai in pieno svolgimento, sono provvedimenti arrivati in un momento di particolare difficoltà per l’esercito russo. Gli ultimi eventi sul campo sembrano infatti confermare la dinamica militare instauratasi a settembre, con il repentino arretramento da Kharkiv e il fronte nord. Il primo ottobre sia Kyiv che Mosca hanno confermato la perdita da parte russa di Lyman, un importante snodo logistico a nord del Donbass recentemente accerchiato dalle forze ucraine, mentre le forze ucraine avanzano lungo il Dniepr verso Kherson. Costi e sconfitte della nuova mobilitazione russa in Ucraina
• (Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR. Europeans will have to put their money where their mouth is to maintain relations with the US over Ukraine – and deliver a ‘long war plan’, such as that proposed by ECFR. The coming transatlantic rift over Ukraine
• (Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Heather A. Conley, GMF. Can one of the most successful US foreign policy initiatives in the 20th century—the Marshall Plan—be replicated in the 21st century—a modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine? A Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine
• (USA) October 4, 2022. Meegan Dugan Adell, New America. In early 2020, just days before the stay-at-home measures went into effect in Chicago, I ran into the Director of the Illinois Department of Revenue at a press conference. This sounds like the start of a bad joke, but it was completely serendipitous. I handed him a short paper I’d written a few months before and, over the next two minutes, gave him a run-down of a poverty-fighting initiative the team at New America and our partners had been trying to build support for. Removing Barriers to the Earned Income Tax Credit
• (USA) October 4, 2022. Jan Rydzak, New America. Though this may sound like the criticism of a member of Congress or digital rights activist, these are actually the words of Meta shareholders. The New Front Facing Down Big Tech
• (USA) October 4, 2020. Mark Schmitt, New America. The summer of 2022 saw major policy breakthroughs: the largest investment in climate action in U.S. history and the presidential directive to forgive student loan debt. These represent notable steps forward for the planet and past and future students. But it’s more than just the substance of these policies that’s a breakthrough, it’s also the process by which these policies made it onto the agenda and were enacted. There’s been a change in the way policy gets made in Washington — one that could be a source of hope for democracy in the long run, if we can overcome the challenges it presents. Can Social Movements Save Our Democracy?
• (USA – South Pacific – Australia) October 4, 2022. Graeme Dobell, The Strategist. As the United States re-engages with the South Pacific, it can learn from what the islands have taught Australia. Australia’s South Pacific lessons for the US

A.M. (ITALIAN TIME)

TOPICS

• (Cybersecurity) October 3, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. A former US National Security Agency (NSA) employee has been arrested after trying to sell classified information to an undercover Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agent posing as a foreign spy working for a foreign government. Ex-NSA Employee Charged For Trying to Sell US Secrets
• (Cybersecurity) October 3, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. KFC and McDonald’s customers were targeted via phishing campaigns across Saudi Arabia, UAE and Singapore, with payment details of some of them successfully stolen by attackers. Phishing Campaigns Target KFC, McDonald’s in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Singapore
• (Cybersecurity) October 3, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. The North Korea–backed threat actor known as Lazarus Group has been observed deploying a Windows rootkit by exploiting a Dell firmware driver. Lazarus Group Exploits Dell Driver Vulnerability to Bypass Windows Security
• (Digital & Tech) October 3, 2022. Darrell M. West and Nicol Turner Lee, Brookings. The prevalence and technical relevance of machine learning algorithms have increased over the years, making predictive decisionmaking tools part of the everyday lives of online users. Today, it is harder to discern what decisions are made by humans, and the others that rely upon the cognition of machines. Most users are unaware of the widespread and normalized use of automated decisionmaking, making them completely oblivious to when machines start, and humans take over, or vice versa. Equally concerning are when online decisions make determinations about one’s eligibility for credit, housing, employment, health care, and educational opportunities. TechTank Podcast Episode 54: Can AI developers be incentivized to debias their algorithms?
• (Global Economy) October 3, 2022. Glada Lahn, Ruth Townend, Chatham House. In July, the International Monetary Fund described ‘increasingly gloomy’ developments in the global economy resulting from shocks to a system already debilitated by the pandemic. Two months later, the World Bank warned that the world was ‘edging toward global recession‘ in 2023. Why it is time to change the narrative around growth
• (Health & Digital) October 3, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics.  University Hospitals (UH) Cleveland Medical Center has been awarded artificial intelligence (AI)-based endoscopy tools by the Medtronic Health Equity Assistance Program, which will be used to support colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and prevention in medically underserved communities. OH Health System Leverages AI to Bolster Colon Cancer Screenings, Health Equity
• (Nord Stream 1 – Nord Stream 2) October 3, 2022. Jessica Brandt and Valerie Wirtschafter, Brookings. One week ago, powerful explosions ruptured a pair of underwater natural gas pipelines—Nord Stream 1 and 2—that run between Russia and Germany. The pipelines represent an important source of natural gas to Germany, and against the background of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Nord Stream 1 and 2 provide a key tool for the Kremlin to exert leverage over Europe. While exactly who is responsible for the attack, which European officials say was a deliberate act of sabotage, remains unclear, experts broadly agree that Russia is the key suspect.    U.S. podcasters spread Kremlin narratives on Nord Stream sabotage
• (Space) October 4, 2022. Anusuya Datta, Geospacial World. The Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) mandate for satellite operators to dispose of satellites within five years of mission completion couldn’t have come at a better time. One Small Step for FCC, One Giant Leap in Sustainable Space
• (Space) October 3, 2022. RUSI. Anuradha Damale-Day, Policy Fellow and Programme Manager at BASIC, talks to us about how the development of space tech is having an impact on legal frameworks. Given her recent experience at the Open-Ended Working Group session on threats, held in Geneva, she ponders on the progress recorded in the international forum. What would be the impact of UN General Assembly Resolution 75/36 on reducing space threats through norms, rules and principles of responsible behaviours? Episode 21: Space Tech Innovation and Regulations – A Game of Catch-Up?

WORLDS

• (AUKUS) October 3, 2022. David Maxwell, FDD. On September 15, 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States formed AUKUS, which is described as a trilateral security partnership designed to make it easier to share information “to better meet the threats of today and tomorrow” in the Indo-Pacific. It is initially focusing on two lines of efforts: submarines and advanced technology. Since the announcement, the trio has held multiple high-level meetings (Senior Officials Groups, Joint Steering Groups, and Working Groups) to advance concepts to support the partnership. AUKUS Special Operations Forces in Strategic Competition, Integrated Deterrence, and Campaigning: Resistance to Malign Activities
• (Brazil) October 3, 2022. Chatham House. On Sunday 2 October, Brazilians headed to the polls for the first round of the presidential election. Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, aided by Paulo Guedes, Brazil’s economy minister, has presided over four years in office attempting to implement radical reforms. Brazil: The economy beyond the elections
• (Brazil) October 2, 2022. Atlantic Council. And then there were two. On Sunday, Brazilian voters sent left-wing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing current President Jair Bolsonaro to a runoff to determine who governs Latin America’s largest country for the next four years. The results—Lula earning about 48 percent to Bolsonaro’s 43 percent and other candidates in the low single digits—set up a four-week sprint to the finish and a test for Brazil’s democracy. To make sense of the results and fill us in on what’s next, we turned to our top Brazil and Latin America experts. Lula vs. Bolsonaro: Your expert breakdown of Brazil’s presidential election runoff
• (Burkina Faso) October 3, 2022. Ebenezer Obadare, CFR. Over the weekend, a small group of soldiers led by 34-year-old Captain Ibrahim Traore overthrew the military junta of Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba.  A Country in Freefall
• (China) October 4, 2022. Xinhua. Given China’s economic resilience and pivotal position in the global economy and supply chains, the “decoupling from China” rhetoric is not only unrealistic, but also short-sighted, experts have said. Experts say decoupling from China unrealistic
• (Greece – Turkey) October 3, 2022. Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo, Defense News. A Greek defense startup is proposing a new autonomous surveillance tower, “Outpost,” to improve the monitoring of remote islands, a capability considered crucial in territorial disputes with neighbor Turkey. ‘Outpost’ autonomous towers to monitor Greek islands for threats
• (Greek Cypriot Administration – USA – Turkey) October 3, 2022. Merve Aydogan, Anadolu Agency. Türkiye on Monday strongly condemned the Greek Cypriot administration’s inclusion in a US military partnership program. Türkiye ‘strongly condemns’ inclusion of Greek Cypriot administration in US military partnership program
• (India) October 3, 2022. Jitendra Choubey, Geospacial World. We encourage the adoption of modern technology. The MoRTH has created various policies to support the wider adoption of these technologies for an even more incredible pace of highway construction in the country, says Amit Kumar Ghosh, Additional Secretary, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH), in an exclusive interview with Geospatial World. Geospatial for Optimum Highway Network Strategy
• (Iran) October 3, 2022. Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made his first public appearance since September 21. Iran Crisis Update, October 3
• (Iran) October 3, 2022. Brookings. Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, speaks with David Dollar about what the continuing demonstrations in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini could mean for regime stability, plus Iran’s economic situation, the prospects of Iran returning to some form of a nuclear deal with the West, and what it would take for the U.S. and Iran to have a better relationship. Will protests in Iran end the Islamic Republic?
• (Italy) October 3, 2022. Isabella Antinozzi, Trevor Taylor, RUSI. With Italy’s new government, the country’s commitment to the Tempest programme is likely to continue, not least because of the economic potential it holds for Italian industry. However, Italy’s strategic geographical position on the Mediterranean and the limited popular support for defence spending means that little can be taken for granted. For the UK and the value of European defence links after Brexit, Italy’s participation in Tempest has benefits beyond the project itself. Italy in Tempest: An Equal or Equitable Partner?
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. James Nixey, Orysia Lutsevych, James Sherr, Nikolai Petrov, Chatham House. Experts from the Russia and Eurasia programme analyse the Russian annexations of key territories in the region and the potential impact on its war against Ukraine. Russia’s annexations must not impact global resolve
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Tatiana
  Stanovaya, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. When Vladimir Putin launched his war against Ukraine back in February, many believed a Rubicon had been crossed after which the Russian president’s relationship with his elites would never be the same. It was then that Putin began to be seen as a desperate leader, no longer capable of normal interaction with the outside world. Russia’s Elites Are Starting to Admit the Possibility of Defeat
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Eldad Shavit, Shimon Stein, INSS. How can a toll be exacted from Russia, without deteriorating into an all-out war? Western leaders must now tackle this challenging question, following the escalation in the Ukrainian theater, Putin’s annexation announcement, and Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield. What dilemmas confront the NATO members, first and foremost the United States, and what is Israel’s role in this inter-bloc struggle? The United States and NATO at a Crossroads regarding the War in Ukraine
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Erol Yayboke, Anastasia Strouboulis, Abigail Edwards, CSIS. The Russi­an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a regional forced displacement crisis. Over seven months since the start of the war, many Ukrainians are still outside their country. Some are still being forcibly displaced while others—especially those in eastern Ukraine—are being forcibly transferred to Russia. Some refugees have returned to Ukraine, though for what length of time remains to be seen. And with President Putin’s “partial mobilization” decree, a whole new group of forcibly displaced and asylum-seeking people may be forced from home—this time from Russia itself. Update on Forced Displacement around Ukraine
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Katherine Lawlor, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. The Defense Post. British Foreign Minister James Cleverly will on Tuesday declare that Britain has the “strategic endurance” to see Ukraine “through to victory” over Russia. UK Vows to See Ukraine ‘Through to Victory’ Over Russia
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Patrick Tucker, Defense One. A family of drones designed to operate against extremist groups is proving effective against the Russian military, and their manufacturer is quickly working to upgrade them with information from the Ukrainian troops putting them to use. But even company officials caution that drones won’t serve as a substitute for the larger weapons Ukraine needs.  What Surprised One Drone Maker About Russia’s War on Ukraine
• (Russia – Ukraine) October 3, 2022. Joe Gould, Defense News. The Pentagon’s international affairs chief said Monday that Russia’s new losses in the strategic southern Kherson region are about to spiral into a “major defeat” that would give Ukraine a defensive position amid “hot fighting” expected this winter. Russian forces poised for ‘major defeat’ in Kherson, says DoD official
• (Syria) October 4, 2022. The Syrian Observer. The U.S.-backed armed faction in the al-Tanf area in southeast Syria, Maghaweir al-Thowra, officially rejected the Global Coalition’s recent decision to remove its leader Muhanad Tallaa. U.S.-Backed Faction in Syria’s al-Tanf Rejects New Leader
• (Syria) October 4, 2022. The Syrian Observer. A human rights group has documented the names and data of more than 6,000 Palestinian refugees who have been subjected to physical abuse since the revolution erupted in March 2011. 6,000 Palestinians Subjected to Physical Abuse in Syria: monitor
• (Syria) October 4, 2022. The Syrian Observer. President Bashar al-Assad’s, during his visit to the PV project in Adra Industrial City, stated that “the establishment of the PV project is a model of investment thinking.”. President Assad Encourages Electricity Privatization
• (Syria – Jordan) October 4, 2022. The Syrian Observer.  On Sunday, during a meeting that included several political figures in the country, King Abdullah II of Jordan added that Jordan wants a solution that preserves the unity of Syria’s land and people and ensures the voluntary and safe return of refugees, according to the Jordanian news agency Petra.  King of Jordan: We’ll Continue to Push for Political Solution in Syria
• (Turkey) October 3, 2022. Burak Ege Bekdil, Defense News. A two-company partnership developed “the world’s first unmanned surface vessel with electronic warfare capabilities,” according to Turkey’s top procurement official, Ismail Demir. Aselsan, Sefine team up again on uncrewed electronic warfare vessel
• (Turkey – Libya) October 3, 2022. Merve Aydogan and Mahmoud Barakat, Anadolu Agency. Stressing the strong ties between Türkiye and Libya, the Turkish foreign minister announced in Tripoli on Monday the signing of memorandums of understanding on hydrocarbon and gas between the two countries. Türkiye, Libya sign agreements on hydrocarbon, gas
• (Turkey – Syria) October 4, 2022. The Syrian Observer. The secretary-general of Turkey’s opposition Homeland Party, Özgür Bursli, renewed the intention of party officials to visit the Syrian capital Damascus very soon, after a week of talk of postponing it. Turkey’s Opposition Homeland Party Renews its President’s Intention to Visit Damascus “Very Soon”
• (Turkey – Yemen) October 4, 2022. Handan Kazancı, Anadolu Agency. Türkiye called Tuesday on Yemen’s warring parties to “show effort to reintroduce the truce” after an Oct. 2 deadline for extending it expired. Türkiye calls on parties in Yemen to ‘reintroduce truce’
• (USA) October 3, 2022. Geospacial World. CoreLogic announced that residential and commercial wind and storm surge loss estimates for Hurricane Ian are expected to be between $22 billion and $32 billion. Insured storm surge losses in Florida are expected to be an additional $6 billion to $15 billion. CoreLogic Estimates $28 Billion to $47 Billion Loss via Hurrican Ian
• (USA) October 3, 2022. Jean Ross, Jessica Vela, Center for American Progress. The strength and pace of recent job growth demonstrates the importance of public investment at scale for minimizing long-term harm for workers and their families. The Swift Jobs Recovery Under Biden Will Have Long-Lasting Benefits for Workers
• (USA) October 3, 2022. Ted Van Green, Pew Research Center. With the midterm elections less than two months away, an increasing share of Americans say that their side in politics has been losing more often than it has been winning. Americans increasingly say their side is mostly losing in politics
• (USA) October 3, 2022. David Adesnik, John Hardie, FDD. Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker. Once a month, we ask FDD’s experts and scholars to assess the administration’s foreign policy. They provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they watch. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: October
• (USA) October 3, 2022. Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. The first data strategy implementation plan issued by the Pentagon’s lead IT office seeks nothing less than to break down the myriad and storied walls that keep information from flowing freely and securely between DOD programs, military branches, and battlefield units. DISA’s Sweeping New Plan Takes Aim at Data Silos, Mistagged Info
• (USA) October 3, 2022.  Courtney Albon, Defense News. With the start of the federal government’s new fiscal year, and as required by law, the Space Development Agency formally transitioned into the U.S. Space Force on Oct. 1. New year, new boss: Pentagon satellite agency joins Space Force
• (USA) October 3, 2022. Jacob Ware, CFR.  In the two weeks leading up to the last midterm election in 2018, the United States was shaken by four domestic terrorist attacks, all seeking different ways of pressing home a political message. Elections, Violence, and the Future of American Democracy
• (USA – Germany – Ukraine) October 3, 2022.
  Rachel Nostrant, Defense News. A new mission is being established at U.S. European Command’s headquarters in Germany to oversee how the U.S. trains and equips Ukrainian troops, according to a report by the New York Times. US may establish new command in Germany to arm Ukraine: report
• (USA – Somalia) October 3, 2022. Bill Roggio, Caleb Weiss, FDD. The U.S. military killed a senior Shabaab leader in an airstrike in a terrorist haven in southern Somalia on Oct. 1. Abdullahi Yare, the Shabaab commander who was killed, had a $3 million reward out for his capture, and is the first senior Shabaab leader killed in more than two years. U.S. military kills wanted Shabaab leader in airstrike in Somalia
• (USA – Taiwan) October 3, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. The senators who last month advanced a sprawling bill that includes $6.5 billion in military aid for Taiwan are hoping to pass it into law as part of the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. Menendez seeks path forward for Taiwan defense bill