Geostrategic environment (september 30, 2022)

Geostrategic thinking

THINKING COMPLEX

The bureaucratic state finds itself overcome by historical processes. Dynamism, speed and radicality are the characteristics of what we experience. Think of the technological revolution.

If bureaucracy is an essential part of state organisation, it is politics that must maintain a substantial difference from administration. Typical of the bureaucratic state is the progressive transformation of politics into administration: as if governing were not, first and foremost, to have a historical vision of what kind of society we are building.

If we look at today, the tremendous energy crisis affecting households and businesses (albeit with different impacts in different European countries) calls for broad, complex and rapid responses. We are in the midst of the ‘while’ of a war and a major recomposition of power relations at the international level. Politics, over the past thirty years, has missed the historic opportunity to politically govern the great transition that began with the implosion of the Soviet Union.

From now on, politics can no longer afford to limit itself to the administration of what exists. The ruling classes, in fact, are called to a responsibility that concerns the future that is already present. While the pandemic and the war have sent us very clear messages, the world does not seem to be evolving along lines of mediation-negotiation and progressive pacification and social justice.

The social and environmental crisis that threatens to worsen deeply problematises the very essence of democratic living and open societies. Beyond party affiliations, we think the time has come for new paths of sharing common history. We need new proximities, to put the relationship between us and not ourselves at the centre, to work on the elaboration of new cultural and operational paradigms in a ‘glocal’ key. It is our conviction that ‘national interest’ must be transformed into ‘glocal interest’.

We write every day about Ukraine but we know that the world is full of wars and walls (cultural and physical). The ‘third world war in pieces’ is only just beginning. In addition, the de-generational megacrisis shows us the political unsustainability of the world we find ourselves living in.

(by M.E.)

The Global Eye’s daily briefs – Editor, The Global Eye

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

P.M. (ITALIAN TIME)

TOPICS

  • (BRICS & SCO) September 29, 2022. Valdai Discussion Club. BRICS and SCO: Inclusive Cooperation in the Face of Global Challenges
  • (Climate Change & Sustainability) September 29, 2022. Stephanie Segal, CSIS. When President Biden addressed fellow leaders at the United Nations General Assembly last week, his speech mentioned “climate” more than a dozen times (second only to “Russia”). Climate is expected to feature prominently next month at the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington, D.C., ahead of November’s 27th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP27) in Egypt. The attention on climate is welcome, as mobilizing sufficient capital to finance the transition to a net-zero world is a Herculean task. This summer’s passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) gives the United States credibility to lead renewed international efforts, especially those aimed at mobilizing climate finance. Translating Urgency into Action: Climate Finance Mobilization
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 21, 2022. Marcin Zaborowski, GLOBSEC. At the Madrid Summit held on 28-30 June 2022, NATO Allies adopted a new Strategic Concept which aims to define the Alliance’s vision for the coming decade. The 2022 NATO Strategic Concept was drafted during a particular historical moment marked by Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This being said, the new Concept communicates a clear evolution in the Alliance’s prioritization of its core tasks: defence and deterrence and an end to the illusion of partnership with Russia. GLOBSEC’s Policy Director Marcin Zaborowski contributed to this topic with a chapter for the “NATO’s New Strategic Concept” report by NATO Defense College. NATO Strategic Concept in the Shadow of the War
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 30, 2022. , The Strategist. Few international relationships are as under-recognised as that between Korea and Australia. Many in each country know little of the important role Australia played supporting the fledgling Republic of Korea (ROK) during its 1950–1953 war with its northern neighbour. Nor do they realise that Australia and the ROK are comprehensive strategic partners in a relationship underpinned by complementary economies and shared regional strategic interests. This cooperation flourishes across the economies and the diplomatic relations of these two democracies and there are promising signs that the relationship is deepening. It’s time to strengthen Korean–Australian defence cooperation
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 30, 2022. , The Strategist. The Strategist has been defence-review-heavy recently. Much of the conversation has centred on conventional land forces and armour in particular. This has been couched in terms of generic land combat rather than in the context of Australia’s defence policy, which prioritises independent operations in our near region. Prioritising the region makes sense both for the US alliance and for the Hugh White scenario, in which we have to fight alone. It also provides some specificity, but the geography-agnostic arguments continue to be made. Defence review must find a way to join the parts of the ADF together—before it’s too late
  • (Nord Stream 1 – Nord Stream 2) September 29, 2022. A series of recent events related to European and Russian energy has unnerved many in the EU and beyond. Live from Vilnius, Vladimir Milov, former Russian Deputy Energy Minister and opposition politician, speaks with Roger Hilton to address the Nord Stream sabotage and its security as well as environmental implications in the Baltic, potential gas disruptions should Gazprom sanction Naftogaz, and the impending death of the Russian energy industry pointing to the country’s bleak economic future. Twitter Space: Russia’s Faltering Energy Industry
  • (Nord Stream 1 – Nord Stream 2) September 29, 2022. Joseph Majkut, Leslie Palti-Guzman, Max Bergmann, Colin Wall, CSIS. On September 27, large leaks were detected in both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, driving speculation about a new escalation in the energy brinksmanship between Europe and Russia. The underwater pipelines were built to carry natural gas from Russia to Europe but were not delivering gas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On September 29,  NATO issued a statement saying the leaks were the result of deliberate sabotage and stating that attacks on allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a “united and determined response.”. Security Implications of Nord Stream Sabotage
  • (Wagner Group) September 29, 2022. Madison Urban, Sara M. Downing, FDD. President Biden recently stated he would deny congressional resolutions to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. The president’s response comes amid a broader discussion of how to counter the Kremlin’s defiance of international norms and disregard for human rights. While designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism is fraught with political challenges, designating the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, as a terrorist organization would help restrain one of the main perpetrators of atrocities. Wagner’s pattern of violence in Europe and Africa clearly justifies a terrorism designation. The Wagner Group: Paramilitary Terrorism

WORLDS

  • (China) September 30, 2022. Henry Storey, The Interpreter. Southern China’s longest drought on record is the latest manifestation of a slow-burning but increasingly severe water crisis. Left unchecked, it has the potential to act as a material handbrake on China’s development. Water scarcity challenges China’s development model
  • (Europe) September 26, 2022. GLOBSEC. On the first English episode of GLOBcast, Ivan Mikloš, former Slovak Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, speculates on the economic uncertainty the EU faces, the need for continued special measures despite indebtedness, and if a prolonged stagflation crisis will materialize. GLOBcast ep.2: The EU Economic Crisis: Can it be mitigated or will it be a disaster?
  • (Germany – China) September 29, 2022. Valdai Discussion Club. Changes in the position of Germany are largely due to external factors. The growth of the PRC’s role in international affairs in itself stimulates the involvement of geopolitical arguments in the statements on China and its departure from a pragmatic discourse, writes Valdai Club expert Julia Melnikova. EU-China Relations and the Future of Multipolarity. What Is Germany’s Choice?
  • (North Korea) September 2022. Marcus Noland, PIIE. North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency with food insecurity at its core. As of August 2022, both quantity and price data point to a deteriorating situation, made worse by the regime’s self-isolating response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Food availability has likely fallen below minimum human needs and on one metric is the worst since the 1990s famine. Food insecurity in North Korea is not only a humanitarian issue but also a strategic one. In this context, the diplomatic leverage conferred by aid is unclear, nor is North Korea’s priority as a recipient, in light of competing needs elsewhere. Resolution of North Korea’s chronic food insecurity would require changes in the regime’s domestic and foreign policy commitments, but this seems unlikely due to enablement by China and Russia. North Korea as a complex humanitarian emergency: Assessing food insecurity
  • (North Korea) September 30, 2022. William Leben, The Strategist. With the Ukrainian breadbasket’s link to global markets disrupted by the ongoing Russian invasion, global food security has been unusually prominent in the news cycle. Shortly after the invasion began, some analysts were quick to warn against ‘beggar thy neighbour’ food trade restrictions, and the UN World Food Programme recently stated that the war is driving a ‘global food crisis’. Famine looms in a range of countries, including Somalia and Afghanistan, but the growing food insecurity risk in North Korea has attracted surprisingly little renewed coverage. North Korea could be headed (back) towards famine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 29, 2022. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The decision to mobilize reservists and the ensuing domestic unrest points to Putin’s weakness. Western sanctions and military support for Ukraine are key to preventing a Russian victory. Judy Asks: Can Putin Be Stopped? – Carnegie Europe
  • (Turkey – Russia) September 29, 2022. Sinan Ciddi, FDD. Three Turkish state-owned banks suspended their use of the Russian payment system “Mir” — Moscow’s alternative to the Brussels-based SWIFT messaging service — on Tuesday. This move comes amid pressure from both U.S. and European authorities and likely reflects Ankara’s fear of triggering U.S. sanctions. Turkish Banks Suspend Use of Russia’s Mir Payment System
  • (USA) September 29, 2022. Alan Cooperman, Pew Research Center. Earlier this month, Pew Research Center released a study exploring how the religious composition of the United States might change by 2070. One of the conclusions of the study that drew widespread attention is that Christians – who constituted 64% of the nation’s population in 2020 – may no longer be the majority five decades from now. How religious switching might affect Christianity’s future in U.S.
  • (USA) September 29, 2022. Pew Research Center. Nearly two years after former President Donald Trump won more Latino votes than he did in 2016, a new Pew Research Center survey of Latino adults finds that most say the Democratic Party cares about Latinos and works hard to earn their vote. Significantly fewer say the same of the Republican Party. At the same time, fewer than half of Latinos say they see a major difference between the parties, despite living in a deeply polarized era amid growing partisan hostility. Most Latinos Say Democrats Care About Them and Work Hard for Their Vote, Far Fewer Say So of GOP
  • (USA – Pacific) September 30, 2022. , The Strategist. Today, President Joe Biden released the United States’ Pacific partnership strategy. Although it bears some resemblance to the Pacific engagement strategy that was drafted by the Asia–Pacific Security Affairs Subcommittee of the Biden Defense Working Group, this strategy is a separate document that arose through a completely independent drafting process. Nevertheless, it fulfills part of the vision of those who worked on the original policy paper during the 2020 US presidential campaign. It provides a roadmap on the direction for engagement by the US government in the Pacific islands region. The US pivot towards Pacific regionalism
  • (USA – Russia) September 29, 2022. Andrea Stricker, Anthony Ruggiero, FDD. A meeting next week of the Executive Council (EC) of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) presents an opportunity for the United States and its allies to demand Russian compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). If Moscow does not remedy its flagrant violation of the CWC, the EC may have enough votes to start the process of suspending Russia from the OPCW. U.S. Must Show Russia There Is No Impunity for Chemical Weapons Use

A.M. (ITALIAN TIME)

TOPICS

WORLDS

  • (China – Japan) September 30, 2022.  Yang Sheng, Global Times.Chinese leaders on Thursday exchanged congratulatory messages with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida over the 50th anniversary of the normalization of China-Japan diplomatic relations, with analysts saying China and Japan show great sincerity to each other to keep developing the ties in a world with increasing uncertainties, despite the two sides have differences on many issues.  50 years on, China and Japan aspire to overcome rifts, bring relations forward
  • (China – Syria) September 30, 2022. Xinhua. Dialogue and consultation is the only way to resolve the Syrian chemical weapons issue, a Chinese representative said Thursday. Chinese envoy urges dialogue, consultation to resolve Syrian chemical weapons issue
  • (Europe) September 29, 2022. Conall Heussaff, Simone Tagliapietra, Georg Zachmann, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Bruegel. Action to intervene in the gas and electricity wholesale markets is also being taken at European Union level, which is what we analyse in this paper. An assessment of Europe’s options for addressing the crisis in energy markets
  • (Germany) September 30, 2022. IFO. The shortage of materials in German manufacturing has intensified. In September, 65.8 percent of the companies surveyed reported problems, up from 62.0 percent in August. This is a finding of the ifo Institute’s latest survey. “The hoped-for permanent easing has unfortunately failed to materialize,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo. “This means that for now, the economy will lack support during the recession,” he adds. Material Shortages in Germany Slightly Worse Again
  • (Iran) September 30, 2022. Ellie Geranmayeh, ECFR. Young people in Iran have led mass protests after the death of a woman in police custody. The West should stand in solidarity with the protesters while keeping the diplomatic route open to halt Iran’s nuclear programme. Generation no: The Iranian uprising and how the West should respond
  • (Iran) September 29, 2022. Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The Iranian regime’s extensive internet and telecommunications censorship is severely limiting the open-source information available on ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran. Iran Crisis Update, September 29
  • (Japan) September 29, 2022. Sayuri Shirai, East Asia Forum. The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy framework has been characterised by yield curve control since 2016. That involves the stabilisation of the 10-year government bond yield — the cost of borrowing for the Japanese government — at around zero per cent and a so-called negative interest rate policy in which -0.1 per cent interest is charged on a small portion of excess reserves. Japan’s monetary policy peculiarity
  • (Kenya – Europe) September 29, 2022. Wevyn Muganda, ECFR.  “Kenya First” may sound Trumpian. But if the new president can deliver on his promise to strengthen governance in the country, Kenya could prove an even more valuable partner for Europe. What the Ruto government could mean for Kenya-Europe relations
  • (Mexico) September 30, 2022. Jorge Antonio Rocha, Anadolu Agency. The NGO, Global Witness, reported Thursday that Mexico had risen to the top of the list as the most dangerous place for land defenders and enviromental activists worldwide. Mexico becomes deadliest country for land defenders, environmental activists: Report
  • (New Zealand) September 30, 2022.  Gary Hawke, East Asia Forum. Internal and external evaluations often differ in politics. Occasional appearances by political leaders overseas do not reflect the continual grind of local challenges and political rivalry. Ardern’s popularity abroad belies trouble at home
  • (Russia) September 29, 2022.  Pavel Luzin, The Jamestown Foundation. The first week of the “partial mobilization” in Russia, which started on September 21, has demonstrated rampant bureaucratic chaos, a lack of planning and a deficit of training facilities and even basic equipment (72.ru, September 26; Kommersant, September 27; Sekret Firmy, September 28; Ura.ru, September 29; RIATomsk.ru, September 29). Although the mobilization does not have any clear schedule, it is possible to presume that the first wave of this process will be completed by October 1, as fall conscription for 2022 is starting on that day. In this way, it would be hard for the recruitment centers—the military commissar’s offices—to combine two processes simultaneously, considering that the planned quota for the upcoming conscription is 120,000 recruits (59.ru, September 29; Gazeta.ru, September 28). Mobilization as a Triumph of Political Eschatology
  • (Russia) September 29, 2022. Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his partial mobilization program on September 21, officials across Russia have sought to carry out his order. This has sparked protests in more than 50 cities and fire bombings of official buildings in more than 20. Outside the two capitals (Moscow and St. Petersburg), the largest protests have been in non-Russian areas and in ethnic Russian rural areas far from the Kremlin, the two areas where the Russian authorities had erroneously calculated they would find it easiest to meet mobilization quotas. In response, the authorities have cracked down, arresting more than 2,300 demonstrators thus far. The largest flashpoints have been in Buryatia and Sakha in the Far East, as well as across the non-Russian republics and Russian krais and oblasts of the North Caucasus (Rfi.fr, September 25; Novayagazeta.eu, September 26). Anti-Mobilization Protests in Dagestan Becoming a Maidan in the North Caucasus
  • (Russia – China) September 30, 2022. Murat Temizer, Anadolu Agency. Russian natural gas shipments to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline, which halted for maintenance, have now resumed, Russian energy company Gazprom confirmed in a statement Friday. Gazprom resumes gas deliveries to China through Power of Siberia
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 29, 2022. Irina Plaks, Atlantic Council. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to mobilize hundreds of thousands of Russian reserves this month will almost certainly exacerbate internal divisions within Russia by highlighting his regime’s poor military-personnel policies. This should prompt Ukraine and its Western allies to prepare for an onslaught of poorly trained, disjointed troops.  Russia’s military isn’t ready for an escalation. Ukraine and its partners can exploit that
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 29, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The Kremlin continues to violate its stated “partial mobilization” procedures and contradict its own messaging even while recognizing the systematic failures within the Russian bureaucracy just eight days after the declaration of mobilization. (Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29
  • (USA) September 29, 2022. William A. Galston, Brookings. For years, Democrats believed that the demographic changes from immigration would eventually shift the political balance in their favor. Doubts began to emerge in 2016, when Donald Trump improved on Mitt Romney’s performance among Hispanics despite his tough anti-immigrant rhetoric. These doubts intensified in 2020, when Trump made further gains among Hispanics, especially in Florida and South Texas. And now, a just-released poll of likely voters suggests that Texas Hispanics could be breaking away from the Democratic Party in droves. Are Hispanics leaving the Democratic Party?
  • (USA) September 29, 2022. Dany Bahar, Brookings. After years of displacement, Venezuelan refugees are finally a topic of national discussion in the United States. Since 2014, nearly 7 million Venezuelans have fled their country due to a humanitarian catastrophe and massive violation of human rights, becoming the second-largest displacement crisis in the world today, after Ukraine. Their situation is so desperate that, in order to reach the United States, they need to cross seven countries, passing through the very dangerous Darién Gap, the jungle linking South to Central America between Colombia and Panama. Many simply don’t make it. Politicians are playing politics with refugees, but these workers are exactly what the US economy needs
  • (USA) September 29, 2022. John C. Austin, Brookings. In the spring of 2021 as the Covid19 pandemic lingered on, Kalamazoo’s Deputy Director of Economic Development Antonio Mitchell had a problem. He knew that many Kalamazoo residents had started businesses during the pandemic, but had no idea who they were, how many of them there were, and what they needed to succeed? Microbusinesses boomed during the pandemic. Now, local leaders need to support them
  • (USA) September 29, 2022. Anthony F. Pipa and Zoe Swarzenski, Brookings. The CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS) passed with bipartisan support from Congress and was signed into law by President Biden on August 9, 2022. It made headlines as a major investment by the U.S. government to revitalize America’s leadership in scientific research and technology and counter China’s ascendency in these sectors. The potential of the CHIPS and Science Act for rural America
  • (USA) September 29, 2022.  Scott R. Anderson, Brookings. Obscure legal doctrines rarely go viral. But that’s exactly what happened on December 12, 2020, when then-President Donald J. Trump took to Twitter to complain about his treatment at the hands of the federal judiciary. Revisiting Standing Doctrine: Recent Developments, Policy Concerns, and Possible Solutions
  • (USA) September 29, 2022. Nathan Donley, Brookings. Since the 1970s, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been tasked with using the best available science to regulate pesticides in order to ensure they are safe. How the EPA’s lax regulation of dangerous pesticides is hurting public health and the US economy
  • (USA) September 29, 2022. Darrell M. West, Brookings. Investments in research and development are the most important keys to future prosperity. What countries spend on generating new knowledge, products, services, and processes is important for economic growth and technology innovation, and vital for national security and international competitiveness. In many different respects, such financing determines which nations will lead and what ones will lag behind. R&D for the public good: Ways to strengthen societal innovation in the United States
  • (USA – Afghanistan) September 29, 2022. Madiha Afzal, Brookings. Afghanistan’s year under the Taliban has been grim. The country went into economic collapse with the Taliban takeover and U.S. troop withdrawal last August, as aid dried up, sanctions against the Taliban went into effect, and a regime lacking international recognition meant Afghanistan’s central bank reserves held abroad were frozen. The country’s liquidity evaporated, its currency nosedived, inflation rose, and people lost jobs, all in turn triggering a massive humanitarian crisis. Has US policy toward Taliban-ruled Afghanistan failed Afghans?
  • (USA – China) September 29, 2022. Nick Fouriezos, Atlantic Council. Nick Fouriezos, Atlantic Council. US companies are increasingly considering relocating their operations from China, said Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, after many had to close their Russian operations earlier this year amid Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Commerce Secretary Raimondo: Corporate America is increasingly considering pulling out of China
  • (USA – Europe) September 29, 2022. Daniel Malloy and Charles Lichfield, Atlantic Council. As leading economic policymakers, experts, and academics from both sides of the Atlantic gathered in Frankfurt, Germany, on Wednesday, it was news from Brussels that sent a jolt through the room. The newest European Commission sanctions package—the eighth since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—will include price caps on Russian oil, in line with recent commitments from the Group of Seven (G7). Dispatch from the Frankfurt Forum: How the US and Europe can turn crisis cooperation into sustained partnership
Marco Emanuele
Marco Emanuele è appassionato di cultura della complessità, cultura della tecnologia e relazioni internazionali. Approfondisce il pensiero di Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. Marco ha insegnato Evoluzione della Democrazia e Totalitarismi, è l’editor di The Global Eye e scrive per The Science of Where Magazine. Marco Emanuele is passionate about complexity culture, technology culture and international relations. He delves into the thought of Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. He has taught Evolution of Democracy and Totalitarianisms. Marco is editor of The Global Eye and writes for The Science of Where Magazine.

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