Geostrategic environment (september 28, 2022)

Geostrategic thinking

THINKING COMPLEX 

Holding together the enhancement of the national interest and the preservation of the open society is possible.

We want to protect and improve democracy, the best system known. Provided, however, that we never consider it ‘accomplished’. Indeed, the difficulty/value of democracy lies in its being ‘in perpetual fulfilment’ and in the fact that its ‘just evolution’ is inextricably linked to the responsibility of those who live it.

We want to contribute to building ‘alternative scenarios’ in a radically changing world. We live in a world still divided into sovereign states that, in order to safeguard democracy and open society in their complexity, must move from being ‘bureaucratic states’ to becoming ‘democratic states’.

This is an epochal challenge. Globalisation as we know it has entered an extremely critical phase, certainly as a consequence of the pandemic and the war, but already before. We cannot wait any longer. The pragmatism of operational choices, of government, must be accompanied by a complex reform of thinking and education and by the ability – in the technological revolution in which we are immersed – to look beyond, into the future that is already present.

Globalisation has become a vicious circle. Where planetary dynamics enter our lives headlong and threaten to jeopardise a prosperity that allows us to live with dignity, immunisation from the outside is triggered: we must prevent this from turning into self-immunisation by questioning the open society. Then the national interest would become, within increasingly bureaucratic states, a dogma to be defended at all costs.

(by M.E.)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

A.M. (ITALIAN HOUR)

TOPICS

WORLDS

  • (Afghanistan – Russia) September 28, 2022.   and , Reuters. The Taliban have signed a provisional deal with Russia to supply gasoline, diesel, gas and wheat to Afghanistan, Acting Afghan Commerce and Industry Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters. Afghan Taliban sign deal for Russian oil products, gas and wheat
  • (AUKUS) September 28, 2022. , The Strategist. Intensifying geopolitical competition is having an adverse effect on the internet and innovation. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, increasing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and the lack of an Iran nuclear deal are contributing to the weaponisation of cyber technologies and the raising of technology barriers. Balancing the offensive and defensive in the AUKUS innovation agenda
  • (Australia) September 28, 2022. , The Strategist. Industry and Science Minister Ed Husic has called for a national conversation on revitalising Australia’s science priorities. Few countries have the resources to be competitive in all technologies that might be critical to their national interest. Through its trade agreements and security partnerships—particularly the Quad—Australia has the potential to strengthen its research and development, entrepreneurial and investment systems focusing on critical technology. Reform of the labour market—as highlighted in the government’s recent Jobs and Skills Summit—needs to be undertaken as part of a strategy that draws on the talents of our like-minded partners. Embracing the vital human element in building critical technology futures
  • (Burkina Faso) September 28, 2022. Al Jazeera. Burkina Faso’s government says at least 11 soldiers have been killed and 50 civilians were missing after armed fighters attacked a 150-vehicle military-escorted convoy taking supplies to a northern town. 11 killed, dozens missing after attack on Burkina Faso convoy
  • (China) September 28, 2022. Xinhua. Construction work on the fourth pipeline of a mega power transmission project that transports natural gas from China’s western regions to the country’s east kicked off Wednesday. China begins construction on new gas transmission pipeline
  • (China – India – Sri Lanka) September 28, 2022. , The Strategist. In September 2014, Sri Lanka stirred the embers of conflict in the Indian Ocean region by allowing Chinese naval vessels to dock at one of its ports. China’s ‘spy ship’ visit to Sri Lanka symbolises looming Sino-Indian maritime competition
  • (China – Japan) September 28, 2022. Maya Kaneko, Kyodo News. China and Japan on Thursday are set to mark the 50th anniversary of the normalization of bilateral diplomatic ties, but prospects are dim for their relations to improve significantly amid a deepening rift between Beijing and Western nations with heightened tensions across the Taiwan Strait. China-Japan ties unlikely to improve in 50th anniv. year
  • (China – Russia) September 27, 2022. Sergey Sukhankin, The Jamestown Foundation. On September 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that, given mounting economic sanctions, full “de-dollarization” of the Russian economy is only a matter of time (RBC, September 12). Putin`s remark was preceded by a statement from Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev, who argued that “Russia no longer needs the US dollar as a reserve currency.” Instead, Russia must accumulate funds in currencies of so-called “friendly countries,” such as the Chinese yuan, which is playing a key role in this regard (RBC, September 8). Creeping ‘Yuanization’ of the Russian Economy: Prospects and Implications
  • (China – Russia) September 28, 2022. Zhao Juecheng, Global Times. The normal military cooperation between China and Russia is aimed at jointly maintaining regional peace and stability, while the hype about the “China threat” theory is nothing more than speculation, Chinese military experts noted after the US media reported the sightings of a joint Russian-Chinese patrol formation near Alaska and speculated about the expansion of Russian-Chinese influence in the Arctic region. Normal China-Russia military cooperation aimed at maintaining peace: expert
  • (Iran) September 27, 2022. Borzou Daragahi, Atlantic Council. They have been pouring into the streets for nearly two weeks and are determined to bring about fundamental change. But when asked about the plans and emerging leadership of the nationwide movement that has sprung up in the wake of the killing of Mahsa Amina by “morality police,” one protester shrugged in exasperation.  How to turn Iran’s moment into a movement
  • (Iran – Saudi Arabia – Iraq) September 27, 2022. IRNA. Foreign minister of Iraq in his latest comment on Baghdad’s mediating between Tehran and Riyadh said that the two sides have reached agreement on many points. Iraq FM: Iran, S. Arabia agree on many points
  • (Italy) September 27, 2022. , CEPA. Ukraine policy looks likely to remain unchanged, despite the presence of questioning voices in the new government. What Next for Italian Foreign Policy?
  • (Japan) September 28, 2022. Lydia Khalil, The Interpreter. After the assassination of Japan’s former prime minister Abe Shinzo, his life and legacy have been largely celebrated abroad but mired in controversy at home. “Predatory cult”: the shadow of Unification Church over Abe’s funeral
  • (Japan) September 28, 2022. Ryo Sahashi, East Asia Forum. The globalised world is suffering and the liberal international order is at risk. The pandemic and US–China technology rivalry are eroding transnational production and labour mobility networks. Democracies are in retreat in a growing number of countries where authoritarian leaders are undermining political institutions. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dashed confidence in the liberal international order put in place after World War II. Distrust has come to dominate relations among major powers and the foundations of international cooperation are weakened. Japan’s dependability in Asia
  • (Japan) September 27, 2022. Levi McLaughlin, East Asia Forum. On 14 July 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced plans to hold a state funeral for his predecessor Shinzo Abe, who was gunned down while campaigning for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on 8 July. In the weeks that followed, this funeral plan grew unpopular. Church drama is a dilemma for Kishida
  • (Mexico) September 27, 2022. Nathaniel Parish Flannery, Forbes. During the administration of President Andres Manuel López Obrador, Mexico has struggled with historically high levels of homicides. Why Is Mexico’s Security Strategy Failing?
  • (Russia – Belarus) September 27, 2022. Yauheni Preiherman, The Jamestown Foundation. In a recent interview, Russian ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, noted, “Belarus plays a rather important role in the framework of the special military operation” (Spbdnevnik.ru, September 15). Indeed, during the first phase of the war, the Russian military entered Ukraine’s northern regions and advanced in the direction of Kyiv via Belarus and used Belarusian territory as a launchpad for surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missile attacks on Ukrainian territory. In April 2022, Russian troops fully withdrew from northern Ukraine (many did so via Belarus), and no ground troop movements across the Belarusian-Ukrainian border have happened since. Yet, sporadic Russian missile launches from Belarus have continued (Bbc.com/russian, July 28). Also, Minsk continues to back Moscow diplomatically by voting consistently in Russia’s favor at the United Nations (News.un.org, March 3; Reformation, September 17). Belarusian-Russian Cooperation Against the Backdrop of the Ukraine War
  • (Russia – Jewish Agency for Israel) September 27, 2022. Justin Sherman, Brookings. In late July, the Russian government appeared to have turned its data localization laws against an unlikely target: the Jewish Agency for Israel. Concerned that the decades-old nonprofit, which helps Jews emigrate to Israel from around the world, is accelerating the brain-drain of educated professionals from Russia in the aftermath of its disastrous invasion of Ukraine, Russian authorities accused the group of violating privacy laws in its storage of data pertaining to Russian citizens.  Russia is weaponizing its data laws against foreign organizations
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 27, 2022. , CEPA. Vladimir Putin’s decision to mobilize 300,000 men to reinforce his war in Ukraine and his threat to use nuclear weapons are a desperate gamble. Putin’s Dangerous Bet
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 27, 2022. , CEPA. The dramatic success of recent counteroffensives by Ukrainian forces will be crowned by the recapture of the Crimean peninsula, according to two former commanding generals of US Army Europe. Crimea in Ukraine’s Crosshairs, Say US Generals
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 28, 2022. , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. A nuclear spectre is haunting Europe once again. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a mobilisation of some 300,000 reservists and announced that he will use ‘all available means’ to defend Russia, adding, ‘This is not a bluff.’ As one senior European policymaker noted to me, such nuclear brinkmanship is an invitation to dust off old Cold War tomes such as Herman Kahn’s On thermonuclear war. Preparing for the long war
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 27, 2022. CSIS hosts His Excellency Zbigniew Rau, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland. Poland and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 27, 2022. Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. While males outnumber females slightly at birth in most communities, higher mortality rates among men as compared to women means that, in most countries, by adulthood, women outnumber men. Typically, this difference is small, merely 1 or 2 percent, and does not carry major consequences. But, in this way, Russia is a major exception. Since World War II, the Russian Federation has stood out, as losses in that conflict disproportionately affected men, leaving the country with one of the largest gender imbalances anywhere in the world, at nearly 15 percent. That imbalance, which had a negative impact on marriages and child births, gradually declined over the following decades. But figures from the latest Russian census suggest that the decline has slowed given the extremely high levels of adult male mortality (Newizv.ru, September 23). Ukrainian War Increasing Gender Imbalance in Russia, Threatening Future
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 27, 2022. Xinhua. A Chinese envoy on Tuesday called for efforts to open the door for a political settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Chinese envoy calls for efforts to open door for political settlement of Ukraine crisis
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 27, 2022. IAEA. The site of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was hit by new shelling and explosions this week, breaking windows in one of its turbine halls and once again underlining the urgent need to establish a nuclear safety and security protection zone around the plant, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today. Update 106 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 27, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Riley Bailey, and Mason Clark, ISW. Russian authorities in occupied parts of Ukraine’s Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts completed their falsified annexation “referenda” on September 27 and implausibly claimed that each sham referendum received between 87 and 99% approval from Ukrainian residents. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27
  • (Sahel) September 27, 2022. Conor Savoy, CSIS. The Sahel region of Africa is one of the most climate-affected regions in the world. Temperatures are rising 1.5 percent faster than the global average rate. Supporting Water Programming in the Sahel
  • (Syria) September 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. The spread of cholera in several Syrian governorates has caused the Agriculture Directorate of Rural Damascus to destroy some crops, according to Athr Press. Price of Leafy Greens Drops 80 Percent due to Cholera Outbreak
  • (Syria) September 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi has said that his country was mobilizing support for the “peace process” led by some Arab countries in Syria, according to al-Souria Net. Jordan Discusses Arab-led ‘Peace Process’ in Syria
  • (Syria) September 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Vershinin reiterated the importance of realigning the humanitarian aid for Syria with the principle of respecting the country’s sovereignty, according to SANA. Humanitarian Aid Must Respect Syria’s Sovereignty, Russian Foreign Ministry
  • (Syria) September 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Pedersen says the situation in Syria is becoming more difficult by the day, according to North Press. No Party Can Dictate The Outcome Of Syrian Conflict – UN Envoy
  • (Syria) September 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Syrians can expect violence to intensify as Russia demonstrates to its friends in the region it will stay the course in Syria, according to al-Araby al-Jadeed. Syria Insight: How the Invasion of Ukraine has Impacted on Russia
  • (Syria) September 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. A Syrian opposition delegation met with UN Secretary-General António Guterres to discuss the issues facing the Syrian people, according to Nedaa Post. Syrian Opposition Meets with United Nations Secretary-General: Four Files Discussed
  • (Syria) September 28, 2022. The Syrian Observer. Russia is pushing Turkey in the direction of normalization with the Syrian government, according to Athr Press. Ankara to Opposition: Circumstances not Easy; If you Waste Time, We’ll Talk to Others
  • (Syria) September 28, 2022. Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy, Valdai Discussion Club. More than ten years have elapsed since the Syrian crisis erupted. During these years, around 500,000 Syrians are estimated to have died, and many more were wounded. More than half the pre-conflict population of 23 million are refugees or internally displaced. The country’s GDP has shrunk by 60%,  2.4 million children have no formal education, 80% of those remaining in Syria live below the poverty line and 14.2 million are considered to be food deficient. Forty percent of the infrastructure is destroyed. In short, the present situation for the Syrian people is bleak, and if there is no settlement of the conflict in the foreseeable future, the future will be even more bleak. Syria and the Regional Restructuring
  • (UK) September 28, 2022. Natalie Sherman & Tom Espiner, BBC. The International Monetary Fund has openly criticised the UK government over its plan for tax cuts, warning that the measures are likely to fuel the cost-of-living crisis. IMF openly criticises UK government plans
  • (USA) September 18, 2022. Al Jazeera. The United States says it is keeping its cap on refugee admissions at 125,000 for the upcoming fiscal year. US keeps target admissions for refugees at 125,000
  • (USA) September 27, 2022.  Laura Taylor-Kale, CFR. Immigration barriers for entrepreneurs and U.S.-educated STEM graduates hurt American innovation. To Out-Innovate Global Competitors, the United States Should Embrace Immigrant Talent
  • (USA) September 27, 2022. Andre M. Perry and Jonathan Rothwell, Brookings. In 1899, W.E.B. Du Bois published “The Philadelphia Negro,” a first-of-its-kind sociological case study of a Black community, combining urban ethnography, social history, and descriptive statistics. Its novel use of data to identify racial inequity undoubtedly influenced Du Bois’ vision for the NAACP, which he would go on to help found, as an organization that uses empirical evidence and facts in its efforts to dismantle injustice. The Black Progress Index: Examining the social factors that influence Black well-being
  • (USA – Japan) September 28, 2022. Kyodo News. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday called for increased cooperation from Japanese semiconductor companies as chips become more important in ensuring economic growth and security. Harris calls for Japan chip firms’ cooperation to boost supply chain
  • (USA – Mexico) September 27, 2022. Alejandro Brugués Rodríguez, John Byrd, Noé Arón Fuentes Flores, David Gaytan, John Gibson, Camila Hernández, Mayra Maldonado, Jason Marczak, Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota, Roberto Ransom, and Ignacia Ulloa, Atlantic Council. A joint report by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, the University of Texas at El Paso’s Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness, and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte. The economic impact of a more efficient US-Mexico border: How reducing wait times at land ports of entry would promote commerce, resilience, and job creation
  • (USA – Pacific Islands States). September 28, 2022. Edward Cavanough, Al Jazeera. US President Joe Biden will host leaders from the Pacific Islands this week in what the White House is billing as a first-of-its-kind regional leaders summit in Washington, amid increasing rivalry between the United States and China in the Pacific. Pacific nation leaders in Washington as US seeks to deepen ties

P.M. (ITALIAN HOUR)

TOPICS

WORLDS

  • (Brazil) September 26, 2022. Wilson Center. Brazil’s presidential election in October is a pivotal moment for the world’s fourth-largest democracy. President Jair Bolsonaro has consistently trailed former President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva in polls, though the outcome remains uncertain. Meanwhile, there are deep concerns about Brazil’s future no matter who wins. What’s Next for Brazil? The 2022 Elections and Beyond
  • (China) September 27, 2022. Tianlei Huang, Nicolas Véron, Bruegel. Since 2020, more companies from China have made the annual Fortune Global 500 ranking than any other country, including the United States. China’s top ranked corporations are not as opaque as they may seem
  • (Cyprus) September 28, 2022. Aylin Unver Noi, Anadolu Agency. Although the US played no role in resolving the issue, it now states that it takes the side of the Greek Cypriot administration and opposes the two-state solution proposed by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Türkiye. What is the US plan on Cyprus? (aa.com.tr)
  • (India) September 28, 2022. Al Jazeera. India has declared the Muslim group, Popular Front of India (PFI), and its affiliates unlawful, accusing them of involvement in “terrorism” and banning them for five years, after authorities detained more than 100 PFI members this month. India bans Muslim group PFI for alleged ‘terror’ links
  • (Indian Ocean Region) September 28, 2022. Veerle Nouwens and Aaditya Dave, RUSI. As strategic and economic interest in the region grows, how can states around the Indian Ocean and their partners mitigate the risk of conflict? Episode 42: The Rising Tide of Competition in the Indian Ocean Region
  • (Iran – Israel) September 28, 2022. Dore Gold, JCPA. How to Understand the Iranian Threat
  • (Iraq) September 28, 2022. Al Jazeera. Supporters of Iraq’s influential Shia religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr have attempted to storm Baghdad’s Green Zone government area as the Iraqi parliament holds a session on the resignation of its speaker. Al-Sadr’s supporters clash with Iraqi security forces in Baghdad
  • (Iraqi Kurdistan) September 28, 2022. Al Jazeera. Iran has attacked an Iranian-Kurdish opposition group in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, killing nine people and injuring several others, Kurdish officials said. Nine dead in Iranian attacks on Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq
  • (Israel) September 28, 2022. Ariel Heimann, Meir Elran, INSS. According to an accepted scenario, a severe earthquake in Israel will leave 7,000 dead and hundreds of thousands homeless. A recent Israeli government decision calls for formulating a national plan for recovery following a major earthquake. This is an important step, but it must be joined by the allocation of resources for preparations in advance of such an earthquake – which is only a matter of time – in an attempt to reduce the number of casualties and the extent of the damage. National Plan for Long-Term Recovery following a Severe Earthquake: An Important Step on the Long Road to National Preparedness
  • (Israel – Palestine) September 28, 2022. Al Jazeera. Four Palestinians have been killed and more than 40 others injured during an Israeli military raid on a refugee camp in Jenin in the northern occupied West Bank. Israeli forces kill four Palestinians, wound dozens in Jenin raid
  • (North Korea) September 28, 2022. Kyodo News. North Korea on Wednesday fired two short-range ballistic missiles off its east coast, according to Japanese and South Korean authorities, amid an ongoing joint drill by the South Korean and U.S. navies. North Korea fires 2 short-range ballistic missiles
  • (Russia) September 28, 2022. Sam Cranny-Evans, RUSI. Russia has failed to choose any one reserve system following the end of the Cold War, which will impact the efficacy of its mobilised forces. However, the mobilisation indicates a willingness to continue the war and challenge Western states. Understanding Russia’s Mobilisation
  • (Russia – Azerbaijan – Nagorno Karabakh) September 28, 2022. Elena Teslova, Anadolu Agency. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday discussed over the phone the implementation of the Nagorno-Karabakh agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov. Top Russian, Azerbaijani diplomats discuss implementation of Nagorno-Karabakh deals
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 28, 2022. Ahmet Gençtürk, Burak Bir, Anadolu Agency. The Turkish and Ukrainian leaders discussed the latest developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine during a phone call on Wednesday. Turkish, Ukrainian presidents discuss war in Ukraine over phone
  • (Saudi Arabia) September 28, 2022. Clifford D. May, FDD. The last time I visited Saudi Arabia was February of 2017. Changes were occurring. “Baby steps,” as one savvy young Saudi woman told me, adding: “There is at least an acknowledgement that we need to evolve.”. 3001 Arabian nights
  • (Somalia) September 27, 2022. Caleb Weiss, FDD. Over the last few weeks, troops from the Somali National Army (SNA), backed by clan-based militias, African Union forces, and U.S. air support, have steadily made progress against Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, across central Somalia. Shabaab continues to lose ground in central Somalia
  • (Sweden – Türkiye – NATO) September 28, 2022. Atila Altuntaş, Anadolu Agency. Sweden will send a delegation from its Interior Ministry to Türkiye for NATO talks next week, the Nordic country’s foreign minister said on Wednesday.  Swedish delegation preparing to visit Türkiye for NATO talks
  • (UK) September 27, 2022. Adam S. Posen, PIIE. Given the irresponsible fiscal policy announcement of the UK government last Friday, and the rout of the pound that followed, the Bank of England had few good options on Monday. Clearly, there is a fundamental macroeconomic conflict between the Truss government’s so-called growth program of large-scale spending and the Bank’s need to reduce trend inflation. While there cannot be a currency crisis in the UK, which has a flexible exchange rate and issues public debt in its own currency, a collapsing currency is still a major problem for its inflation and financial stability. The Bank had to make a choice. How the Bank of England should respond to UK fiscal policy crashing the pound
  • (USA) September 27, 2022. Alex Tausanovitch, Center for American Progress. With the latest version of the Electoral Count Reform Act, the Senate just a took a critical step toward preventing another insurrection. Electoral Count Act Reform Is Now Within Reach
  • (USA – Africa) September 27, 2022. Simon Rynn, RUSI. To take forward its new strategy for Africa the US needs to do more than preach about values and frustrate its adversaries. It can capitalise on longstanding relationships but, with a declining global status, should position itself as a reliable partner that is willing to listen to African concerns. Taking Forward the New US Strategy for Africa
  • (USA – Russia) September 28, 2022. Elena Teslova, Anadolu Agency. The US Embassy in Russia urged its citizens on Wednesday to refrain from traveling to Russia, and those, who are already in the country, to leave immediately.  US Embassy in Russia urges citizens ‘to immediately leave country’

 

Marco Emanuele
Marco Emanuele è appassionato di cultura della complessità, cultura della tecnologia e relazioni internazionali. Approfondisce il pensiero di Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. Marco ha insegnato Evoluzione della Democrazia e Totalitarismi, è l’editor di The Global Eye e scrive per The Science of Where Magazine. Marco Emanuele is passionate about complexity culture, technology culture and international relations. He delves into the thought of Hannah Arendt, Edgar Morin, Raimon Panikkar. He has taught Evolution of Democracy and Totalitarianisms. Marco is editor of The Global Eye and writes for The Science of Where Magazine.

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