Geostrategic environment (september 15, 2022)

TODAY IN EVIDENCE

• Putin and Xi in Samarkand. Al Jazeera (‘Hat in hand’: Putin meets Xi at summit in Samarkand)
• Notes on Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Thomas Wilkins, Samantha Hoffman, Baani Grewal, Katja Theodorakis and Alex Bristow for The Strategist (What is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and does it matter?)
• Supply chains in the megacrisis. Eleftherios Iakovou and Chelsea C. White III for Brookings (A data-sharing approach for greater supply chain visibility)
• The future of warfare. Patrick Tucker for Defense One (Ukraine War Offers Clues to Future War, Joint Chiefs Chairman Says)
• Futurist Marc Goodman explains how science fiction has caught up to reality in modern warfare. Al Jazeera (Assassination drones and bioweapons: The future of warfare?)
• The ongoing situation in Belarus. Grigory Ioffe for The Jamestown Foundation (Political Maneuvering in and Around Belarus)
• USA. In sensitive sectors, foreign investments in domestic companies are bound to a federal license. Tara Copp for Defense One (White House Announces New Restrictions on Foreign Investment in US Tech, Supply Lines)
• USA and climate security. Center for a New American Security (Sharper: Climate Security)

TOPICS

• (Cybersecurity) September 15, 2022. David Steele, Infosecurity. Even though the terms ‘cybercrime’ and ‘cybersecurity’ have been with us for a good while now, myths still abound. Five Myths About Cybercrime and Cybersecurity
• (Cybersecurity) September 15, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Threat actors are using the death of Queen Elizabeth II as a lure to phish for users’ Microsoft credentials, experts have warned. User Alert as Phishing Campaigns Exploit Queen’s Death
• (Cybersecurity) September 15, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Security researchers have uncovered evidence of administrators on cybercrime forums scamming their own customers. Cybercrime Forum Admins Steal from Site Users
• (Cybersecurity) September 15, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Two-fifths (40%) of UK parents believe their children may turn to cybercrime because of the surging cost of living, according to a new study from the International Cyber Expo. Cybercrime Fears for Children as Cost-of-Living Bites
• (Cybersecurity) September 15, 2022. Infosecurity. Digital trust must be a top priority for the benefits of digital transformation programs to be fully realized. ISACA: Ensuring Digital Trust Key to Digital Transformation Success
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 15, 2022. James Garlick, The Strategist. A significant proportion of defence commentary these days is focused on quickly and cost-effectively enhancing the Australian Defence Force’s lethality in the context of China’s growing power and assertiveness. Much of this discussion is concerned with defence in the literal sense—that is, the protection of Australian territory, life and property. A favourite notion of notable pundit Greg Sheridan, for example, is stationing thousands of missiles in northern Australia. Other suggestions include laying smart sea mines to block the choke points on Australia’s approaches. Could a submarine tender enhance the ADF’s offensive power?
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 14, 2022. Caitlin M. Kenney, Defense One. The U.S. Navy managed to retrieve a trio of unmanned vessels from Iranian would-be thieves recently, but the incidents highlight the need to protect maritime drones that may in the future be valuable, armed, or sensitive. Iran’s Attempted Drone Thefts Highlight Challenges of Protecting Unmanned Vessels at Sea
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 14, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. The U.S. Army awarded L3Harris and Raytheon Applied Signal Technology phase-two contracts to develop sensors in support of a next-generation airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance program known as HADES. L3Harris, Raytheon chosen for next phase of Army aerial intel upgrades
• (Defense – Military – Security) September 14, 2022. Hlib Parfonov, The Jamestown Foundation. On September 1, the Vostok-2022 military exercises began in Russia’s Far East. Beyond Russian units, the exercises also included military forces from China, India, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, among others. Vostok 2022: Has Russia Learned From Setbacks in Ukraine?
• (WTO – Public health) September 2022. Cross-border supply chains and international trade enabled the manufacturing and delivery of billions of vaccine doses to inoculate the world against COVID-19. At the same time, the pandemic revealed how the World Trade Organization (WTO) must change to become more useful in the face of a public health emergency. The WTO and vaccine supply chain resilience during a pandemic

WORLDS

• (Afghanistan – Pakistan) September 15, 2022. Abid Hussain, Al Jazeera. The Taliban government in Afghanistan has blamed the Pakistan army’s attempt to build a security post at their border as the reason behind Tuesday’s cross-border skirmish, causing multiple deaths on both sides, including at least three Pakistani soldiers. Afghanistan blames border clash on Pakistan’s bid to build post
• (Angola) September 15, 2022. Al Jazeera. President Lourenco, 68, returned to power after the August 24 vote gave the ruling party a thin majority in its worst performance since independence in 1975. Angola’s Lourenço to be sworn in for 2nd term amid heavy security
• (Armenia – Azerbaijan) September 15, 2022. Al Jazeera. Baku provides death toll but makes no comment on reported ceasefire deal to end days of heavy fighting between rivals. Azerbaijan says 71 soldiers killed in Armenia border clashes
• (Armenia – Azerbaijan) September 15, 2022. Al Jazeera. Armenia and Azerbaijan have negotiated a ceasefire to end a sudden resurgence of fighting that has killed 155 soldiers from both sides, according to a senior Armenian official. Armenia, Azerbaijan negotiate another ceasefire: Yerevan
• (China) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. China will take further measures to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with a view to consolidating the foundation of economic recovery, according to the decision made at the State Council’s Executive Meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on Tuesday. China to double down on stabilizing foreign trade, foreign investment to consolidate foundation of economic recovery
• (China) September 14, 2022. Cheng Li, China US Focus. For students of Pekingology, the transfer of a protégé of a top leader –– or the appointment of the head of a prominent institution –– on the eve of the National Party Congress could be intriguingly indicative of the overall leadership line-up. In August, the unexpected appointments of the presidents of China’s two most prestigious universities deserve much attention. The Reshuffling Report
• (China – ASEAN) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) jointly announced in November last year to elevate their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and ASEAN’s close ties with China have effectively promoted the bloc’s economic development, said an Indonesian entrepreneur. Interview: Close ties with China help boost ASEAN economic development, says Indonesian entrepreneur
• (China – Kazakhstan) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. China and Kazakhstan on Wednesday issued a joint statement on the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. China, Kazakhstan issue joint statement on 30-year relations
• (China – Lebanon) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. A Lebanese university and a Chinese institute signed here on Wednesday a cooperation agreement regarding the scientific research on the peaceful development and use of nuclear energy. Lebanese university signs deal with Chinese institute on nuclear energy research
• (China – Russia) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. China is ready to work with Russia in extending strong support to each other on issues concerning their respective core interests, Chinese President Xi Jinping said during a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, here on Thursday. China ready to work with Russia to support each other on issues concerning core interests: Xi
• (China – Turkmenistan) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. China is willing to constantly push forward the development of relations with Turkmenistan for the benefit of the two peoples, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a meeting with President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov here Thursday morning. Chinese, Turkmen presidents meet to advance bilateral ties
• (Democratic Republic of the Congo) September 15, 2022. Al Jazeera. Photos: DRC fishing community turns to tourism as stocks dwindle
• (Egypt – Qatar) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. Egypt and Qatar signed three memoranda of understanding (MoUs) in Doha, the Egyptian presidency said in a statement on Wednesday. Egypt, Qatar sign deals to boost cooperation
• (Georgia) September 14, 2022. Giorgi Menabde, The Jamestown Foundation. In her July 13 speech in the European Parliament (EP), Lithuanian parliamentarian Rasa Jukneviciene stressed, when talking about the problems of Georgian democracy, that the main challenge goes by the name of one rich man. “Georgia seems to be in the captivity of one person,” Jukneviciene noted. “If Georgia­n Dream [GD] does not understand what de-oligarchization means, which is mentioned in the proposal of the European Commission, I will help them to understand—it means the ‘de-Bidzinization’ or ‘de-Ivanishvilization’ of Georgia.” Jukneviciene was referring, of course, to the founder of GD and former prime minister of Georgia, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili (Facebook.com/Formula; Formulanews.ge, July 14). Is De-Oligarchization of Georgia Possible?
• (Germany) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. Extending the lifetime of Germany’s remaining three nuclear power plants would reduce the price of electricity in the country by 4 percent in 2023, according to the ifo Institute for Economic Research on Wednesday. Extending lifetime of Germany’s nuclear plants would lower electricity prices: ifo
• (Indonesia – Pacific countries) September 15, 2022. Why Indonesia’s engagement with Pacific countries matters
• (Iran) September 15, 2022. Xinhua.  A Chinese envoy on Wednesday called on all parties in the Iran nuclear talks to create necessary conditions for reaching a deal, instead of exaggerating the outstanding Iran’s nuclear safeguards issues. Chinese envoy urges parties not to exaggerate safeguards issues in Iran nuke talks
• (Latin America and the Carribean) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. Representatives from international organizations and Latin American government officials met to address the new cooperation challenges and the impact on the development of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) amid a complex external situation, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said Wednesday. Int’l groups, LatAm gov’ts address cooperation challenges in Chile
• (Lebanon) September 15, 2022. Al Jazeera. Bank heists in Lebanon have become a growing trend – but these armed “robbers” storming into banks are not stealing anyone else’s money. They are just demanding access to their own savings. People are ‘robbing’ banks in Lebanon – to take their own money
• (Mongolia) September 15, 2022. Mendee Jargalsaikhan, Ariunbold Tsetsenkhuu, Munkhtulga Batmunkh, East Asia Forum. Like many of Russia’s neighbours, the war in Ukraine complicates Mongolia’s foreign policy and stokes its fear of becoming a pawn — or even the chessboard — in brewing great power geopolitics. Mongolia’s economic and demographic vulnerability compared to its powerful neighbours has silenced the country’s international voice as it cautiously treads geopolitical water. Mongolia walks a tightrope on Ukraine
• (Nigeria) September 15, 2022. Adebayo Abdulrahman, Al Jazeera. Residents of southwest Nigeria are enduring trauma from the attacks, but also setting up vigilantes and buying arms. No longer at ease: Pastoralist attack survivors unsettled in Nigeria
• (Kenya) September 15, 2022. Al Jazeera. Kenya’s new president scraps petrol subsidy
• (OPEC) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. The secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Haitham Al-Ghais, on Wednesday said the bloc and its allies remain “alert” to any possible changes in the global oil and gas market during his visit to Venezuela. OPEC and allies alert to changes in crude oil market: official
• (Pakistan) September 14, 2022. Jacob Kurtzer, Hareem Fatima Abdullah, Center for Strategic & International Studies. Pakistan is experiencing its worst humanitarian crisis in a decade, spurred by extreme torrential rainfall and devastating flash floods. The most widespread flooding in the 73-year history of Pakistan has left one-third of the country underwater and parts resembling “a small ocean.”. Pakistan’s Deadly Floods Pose Urgent Questions on Preparedness and Response
• (Russia) September 14, 2022. Norman Eisen, Lilly Blumenthal, and Robin J. Lewis, Brookings. As Ukraine pushes against Russia on the military battlefield, the United States must revitalize its supporting efforts on the economic battlefield.  We must reinforce Putin’s military losses with economic ones
• (Russia – Turkey) September 15, 2022. Dimitar Bechev, Al Jazeera. “The return of Crimea to Ukraine, of which it is an inseparable part, is essentially a requirement of international law.” In itself, that striking comment from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, delivered via a video link at the Crimea Platform Summit last month, would not have surprised anyone who follows Turkish-Russian relations closely. Russia’s Ukraine losses are Turkey’s gains
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 15, 2022. Al Jazeera. How Ukrainians ‘de-Russify’ themselves
• (Russia- Ukraine) September 15, 2022. Brendan Nicholson, The Strategist. Behind Ukraine’s euphoria about the success of its counteroffensive against Vladimir Putin’s troops is a lingering alarm about what Moscow might do next. Ambassador says Ukraine needs more aid to press home advances against Russia
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 15, 2022. Al Jazeera. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says a reservoir dam has been hit by Russian air raids in his hometown as officials urge residents in the area to evacuate. Ukraine dam hit by Russian missiles in Zelenskyy’s hometown
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 14, 2022.  Richard Haass, Project Syndicate, Council on Foreign Relations.  Russia’s war against Ukraine, which President Vladimir Putin began in 2014 and expanded in February, has taken a dramatic turn following Ukrainian forces’ liberation, in less than a week, of some 3,400 square miles (8,800 square kilometers) of territory in the country’s northeastern Kharkiv district. Russian strategists, apparently focused on the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the country’s south, were unprepared for the attacks, and Russia’s poorly trained and poorly led troops were no match for their highly competent and motivated Ukrainian counterparts. Ukraine’s Coming Winter of Decision
• (Russia – Ukraine) September 14, 2022. Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW.  Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14
• (Rwanda) September 15, 2022. Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza, Al Jazeera. In the late 1990s, several years after the genocide in Rwanda against the Tutsi community, the country’s new rulers – the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) – held a national dialogue to decide on the form of governance the East African nation should adopt. “Consensual democracy” was chosen as the best option for Rwanda to accelerate development and prevent further ethnic violence. Rwanda’s consensual democracy needs a reset
• (South Sudan) September 15, 2022. Susan Martinez, Al Jazeera. ‘Girls have less to eat’: Hungry and out of school in South Sudan
• (South Sudan) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. South Sudan said Wednesday that it will offer 14 new oil blocks to investors in a bid to increase production to pre-war levels of 350,000 barrels a day. South Sudan says to offer 14 new oil blocks to investors
• (Syria) September 15, 2022. Xinhua. A Chinese envoy on Wednesday called for improvement in the cross-line delivery of humanitarian aid in Syria. Chinese envoy calls for improvement in cross-line humanitarian aid in Syria
• (UK – Iran) September 14, 2022. Holly Dagres, Atlantic Council. “Friends, forgive me if I’ve wronged you,” read a memorial to Queen Elizabeth II posted in the back window of a car in southern Tehran. Since the longest reigning British monarch’s passing at the age of ninety-six on September 8, Iranians have shared mixed emotions about the late queen and the British Empire’s exploitation of Iran during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Britain is mourning Queen Elizabeth II. But for many Iranians, she was the ‘Queen of Coups.’
• (UK – USA – Info Pacific) September 14, 2022.  John H Breen, Jürgen Haacke, East Asia Forum. The incoming UK prime minister faces a challenging geopolitical landscape as London looks to balance closer alignment with Washington in the Indo-Pacific with security concerns in Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reaffirmed London’s view that Western security is a precondition to securing foreign policy interests in the Indo-Pacific. Southeast Asia watches London’s tilt to Washington
• (USA) September 15, 2022. Mark Hugo Lopez, Jens Manuel Krogstad, Jeffrey Passel, Pew Research Center. Debates over who is Hispanic and who is not have often fueled conversations about identity among Americans who trace their heritage to Latin America or Spain. Most recently, the 2020 census has drawn attention to how Hispanic identity is defined and measured. The once-a-decade head count of all people living in the United States used a new approach to identify who is Hispanic and has provided fresh details about how Hispanics view their racial identity. Who is Hispanic?
• (USA) September 15, 2022. Amy E. Gadsden, Jude Blanchette, and Ryan Hass, Brookings. How can U.S. higher education maintain its edge in attracting global talent? In the latest episode of “Vying for Talent,” Amy E. Gadsden, the University of Pennsylvania’s associate vice provost for global initiatives, addresses the importance of international talent flows for American competitiveness. In conversation with co-hosts Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass, Dr. Gadsden emphasizes the importance of people-to-people exchange as the “oxygen” that fuels U.S.-China relations. Can US higher education maintain its global competitiveness?
• (USA) September 14, 2022. Chris Miller, Brookings. While year-over-year inflation in August decreased slightly, headline inflation rose 0.1% and core inflation rose 0.6% over the previous month. On September 13, the morning of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of the latest Consumer Price Index report, Brookings once again convened experts David Wessel, Wendy Edelberg, and Justin Wolfers to discuss the state of inflation in the U.S. You can read a summary of their discussion below and listen to the full conversation on Twitter. 5 key takeaways on inflation from the August CPI report
• (USA – Taiwan) September 15, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. The Senate on Wednesday advanced a sprawling bill that would give Taiwan the same benefits as major non-NATO allies, provide $6.5 billion in military aid, expedite arms sales and prioritize the transfer of excess U.S. defense articles there. The Foreign Relations Committee advanced the Taiwan Policy Act 17-5 after amending certain provisions to address the White House’s concerns with some components of the legislation. Senate advances $6.5 billion Taiwan military aid bill
• (Venezuela) September 14, 2022. Xinhua. Venezuela’s oil production rose in August by between 6,000 and 94,000 barrels per day (bpd), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report released Tuesday. Venezuela sees higher oil output in August