President Donald Trump’s declaration Thursday that he would not attack Iran again before next month’s midterm elections was an implicit admission of the damage being inflicted on Republican hopes by a war that has defied his promise of a quick victory.
Opposition to the conflict, and anger over the high gasoline and diesel prices it caused, are a prime reason why the GOP faces uphill or tight races for Congress in states like Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina that Trump easily won two years ago.
In that sense, Iran appears to have succeeded in its apparent effort to use the midterm elections to inflict political pain on Trump. It has failed, however, to turn that pressure into a retreat in which the president ends the war on its terms — one reason why an Iranian escalation in the next three weeks cannot be ruled out.
Trump’s reference to the election calendar on Thursday is the clearest indication yet that he is aware of the war’s negative impact on his party’s candidates amid a pitched battle for control of Congress. It is also a striking sign that he has become trapped in his own Middle East entanglement, which could be devastating to his party and his legacy, after promising in his second inaugural address only 20 months ago that his success would be measured by “the wars we never get into.”
And by leaving open the option of a resumption of attacks after the midterms, the president is offering new clarity on how he might finally end a war he said would last weeks that is now in its eighth month. The prospect that Democrats could claim at least one chamber of Congress in November, meanwhile, raises the possibility of a far more consequential political showdown in Washington over financing the war — and Trump’s legal standing in fighting it.
The president wrote on Truth Social that his blockade of Iran’s oil exports and ships had reduced the country to a “very bad condition” and added that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.”
Trump has hardly been consistent on Iran. He’s often reversed his strategy and statements, sometimes apparently seeking to confuse Iran’s leaders. So there is some doubt about whether his word is equivocal this time.
But he went public on his plans following reports by the Atlantic and Axios that he was considering a resumption of major combat operations before the election on November 3, being keen to show resolve to voters and to convince Americans that an end to the war and lower gas prices were on the way.
Launching strikes that would remind Americans how much they dislike the war would seem a questionable strategy, especially since some Republicans in close races want it over. “The war in Iran needs to end, and end quickly,” Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers said in a social media video late last month.
by Stephen Collinson/CNN – Trump shows he understands the Iran war is unpopular
