China – Batanes Islands
(Hsi-Ting Pai – The Strategist) Now China is going after the Batanes Islands, a strategically crucial Philippine territory in the Luzon Strait south of Taiwan. An assertion by a group of scholars in June that the Batanes belong to China is a familiar opening move in Beijing’s territorial narrative-building playbook. Their declaration was followed by contrived media amplification to test foreign reactions, which also usually happens. If Beijing deems the timing right, it may eventually move to official foreign ministry statements to solidify a previously non-existent territorial claim. The ultimate goal is not necessarily the physical seizure of the islands. For the moment, the manufactured claim may serve only as a flexible diplomatic and legal pressure point to advance immediate objectives: disrupting Japan–Philippines maritime boundary talks and escalating cognitive warfare against Taiwan. – A new claim on the Batanes, from an old Chinese playbook | The Strategist
Europe – External Action Service
(Jacopo Barigazzi – Politico) The European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas on Sunday was forced to cancel the launch of a new high-level group made up of former political and military leaders following pressure from EU member countries, in what could prove another blow to the former Estonian prime minister. Kallas is leading a fierce behind-the-scenes push against Franco-German plans to overhaul the European External Action Service, the bloc’s diplomatic corps. Those plans on paper aim to reinforce Kallas’ formal role, but her allies fear they could allow the European Commission to take greater control of foreign policy. The high-level group — which Kallas described as bringing together “the brightest minds” to come up with ideas to fulfill EU defense gaps “in the shortest timeframe possible in the most effective way” — was seen by some diplomats as part of this resistance. “It’s her way to remain relevant,” said a senior EU diplomat, who like others quoted in this story was granted anonymity to speak freely. – Kallas scraps new high-level European defense group in fresh blow to her leadership – POLITICO
Europe – Australia – Immigration
(Lisa Martin) Years ago, over curries at an embassy dinner, a charismatic Indian ambassador recounted some of his ripsnorting nicknames for fellow diplomats. The Europeans, in particular the Scandinavians, he dubbed the “Axis of Good” because of smug human rights lectures delivered from high moral pedestals. Those days might be numbered as European nations seek to borrow from Australia’s offshore immigration detention example and establish so-called return hubs in third countries for people with rejected asylum-seeker claims. Rwanda and Uganda are in talks to host the centres. (A previous Denmark–Rwanda deal stalled.) Austrian media is reporting that Uganda could initially accommodate up to 10,000 migrants. Uzbekistan is another country reportedly in the mix. On Friday, Denmark hosted immigration ministers from Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and Greece for talks, as a dozen demonstrators with megaphones and signs protested outside the Danish parliament. “We expect to be ready to send the first foreigners to a partner country by the end of next year,” Danish immigration minister Morten Bødskov said, adding he hopes the first deal can be struck around New Year. – Europe borrows Australia’s asylum script – outsourcing rights | Lowy Institute
Germany – Nicaragua – UN – Israel
(AFP) Germany on Monday urged the United Nations’ top court to throw out a case against it by Nicaragua, which has accused Berlin of “facilitating genocide” in Gaza with its support of Israel. Julia Monar, representing Germany at the International Court of Justice, said judges lacked the jurisdiction to rule on the case and dismissed Nicaragua’s accusations as “inaccurate and distorted”. Nicaragua has dragged Germany before the ICJ in The Hague, arguing that its backing of Israel, notably in terms of arms exports, contravenes the 1948 UN Genocide Convention. Opening four days of hearings, Monar told ICJ judges that “the conditions on which this court’s jurisdiction is based are not met in this case”. “For the first time in the history of this court, it is being asked to adjudicate a case that is twice removed from a classic bilateral dispute,” Monar told the court, which rules on legal arguments between countries. – Germany urges top UN court to toss out Gaza genocide case
Indonesia
(Jessica C. Liao, Lucas Myers – The Interpreter) Long before assuming the presidency, Prabowo Subianto cultivated a reputation as a champion of a more assertive, muscular Indonesian posture on the world stage. Standing on the stage to deliver his inauguration address before the People’s Consultative Assembly in Jakarta in October 2024, he reaffirmed his commitment to Indonesia’s traditional “free and active” foreign policy, vowing to elevate the nation’s standing while resisting being pressured or pushed around by stronger states. Indonesia, Prabowo declared, would chart its own course on its own terms. Nearly two years into his presidency, the “active” dimension of Prabowo’s posture is undeniable, bordering on what some describe as diplomatically “hyperactive”. Since taking office in late 2024, he has visited nearly 30 countries, rivalling the travel volume of his predecessor, Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, over nearly a decade in power. Eager to project Jakarta as a leading powerbroker, Prabowo has touted himself as an aspiring mediator in conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza to Iran, steered Indonesia into BRICS membership, and maintained a constant presence across multilateral summits. Yet, looking past the diplomatic theatre and headline-grabbing summits reveals an uncomfortable reality: Indonesia’s foreign policy may be more active, but it is increasingly constrained where it matters most: its relationship with Beijing. Confronted by mounting domestic economic strains, Jakarta has steadily lost room to manoeuvre to an assertive China that provides critical capital while demanding deference on its own terms. Missteps in foreign policy have raised questions about Jakarta’s ability to maintain its non-alignment posture. While Indonesia continues to profess its bebasaktif doctrine, successful hedging demands two vital assets Jakarta currently lacks: a disciplined resistance to external dependence and precise diplomatic signalling. Without them, growing concessions to Beijing threaten to hollow out Indonesia’s treasured strategic independence. – Under Prabowo, Indonesia is more active than ever – but less free | Lowy Institute
Israel – Gaza
(Reuters) An Israeli strike killed a man and his 8-year-old daughter in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, health officials said. Mohamed Abu Selmia, head of Al Shifa Hospital, the enclave’s largest medical facility, said the airstrike hit a vehicle in western Gaza City, killing Youssef Akila and his daughter, Wafaa, and wounding six others. An Israeli military spokesperson said forces targeted a Hamas militant and the military was still looking into results of the attack. – Israeli strike kills a man and his daughter in Gaza, medics say
Israel – Lebanon
(Reuters) Israeli strikes on a southern Lebanese town early on Monday killed at least 11 people including two children and two medics, Lebanon’s state news agency said. Israel has intensified its bombardment of south Lebanon in recent days despite a June ceasefire that was meant to halt fighting between the Israeli military and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. At least seven people were killed in Israeli strikes on Sunday. Just after midnight, Israeli warplanes hit a residential building in the town of Kfar Rumman in southern Lebanon, killing nine people including two children, and wounding five more, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported. – Israeli strikes on southern Lebanese town kill 11, state news agency says
Israel – West Bank
(Reuters) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered unauthorized settler outposts in the West Bank to be dismantled, two people familiar with the matter said on Sunday, amid pressure from the US to crack down on settler attacks on Palestinians. The order applies to outposts established by settlers without official authorization from the Israeli state, the sources said. Outposts typically consist of prefabricated caravans and house a small number of settlers. The state has from time to time demolished such structures and also formally recognized others, allowing them to access government funding. It was not immediately clear when the operation would begin. Separately, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled on Sunday that Israeli defense authorities must enable the safe return of three Palestinian families to their homes, after they were chased out of them by settlers, in the West Bank village of Jalud. UN bodies and most governments deem all Israeli settlements illegal under international law and consider the West Bank to be occupied territory under military control. Israel argues the territory is disputed, not occupied. – Israel’s Netanyahu orders removal of West Bank settler outposts, sources say
Israel – West Bank – Gaza
(AFP) A top official within the US-backed Board of Peace said on Monday that a failure to move forward in Gaza paired with rising violence in the West Bank are making a two-state solution “impossible”. Nickolay Mladenov, the high representative for Gaza under the US-backed “Board of Peace” tasked with implementing an October ceasefire plan, was speaking at the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi. “I would say that if Gaza continues the way it is now, or does not move into implementing… the plan that we have under the comprehensive plan, the two-state solution will become practically impossible,” he said. – Mladenov says Gaza, West Bank escalation makes two-state solution ‘impossible’
Pacific Islands Forum
(John Hennessey-Niland – The Strategist) The focus for this year’s annual gathering of Pacific leaders and partners was always going to be about China. With the 55th annual meeting of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) taking place last week in Palau, one of only 12 nations in the world that recognise Taiwan, there was always going to be the potential for mischief by China. As the leaders meeting came only a short time after a Chinese missile test in the Pacific, everyone was waiting to see the final communique or if there would even be one. China certainly tried every trick in the book to disrupt the meeting and to discredit the host Palau and its president, Surangel Whipps Jr. – Postcard from PIF: Hardly divided, leaders took a stand on China test | The Strategist
Poland – Ukraine
(Wojciech Kość – Politico) Poland’s nationalist right is turning hostility toward the country’s roughly 1.5 million Ukrainians into a potent political issue, tapping into local resentment over social benefits and wartime history just over a year before a pivotal parliamentary election. During Poland’s 2025 presidential campaign, politicians began portraying Ukrainians in Poland as freeloaders straining the country’s public finances. This summer, Polish President Karol Nawrocki stripped his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Poland’s highest honor, the Order of the White Eagle, in reaction to Zelenskyy’s decision to name a military unit after the World War II-era Ukrainian Insurgent Army, or UPA. The group murdered tens of thousands of Poles during an ethnic-cleansing campaign in 1943-1945, although it also fought against the Soviet Union. – Poland’s anti-Ukrainian turn spills into violence – POLITICO
Russia – North Korea
(AFP) Russia and North Korea held a ceremony on Monday marking the opening of the first road bridge across their narrow shared border, as the two Western-sanctioned countries deepen ties amid the Ukraine war. Russia and North Korea already shared rail and air links. The new bridge, which crosses the Tumen river, is designed to accommodate “a projected growth in freight and passenger traffic, allowing up to 300 vehicles to pass through it daily,” the Russian government said. “The launch of the first automobile route will further strengthen the connection between our friendly countries,” Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said in a video link at the ceremony. – Russia, N.Korea open first road bridge across border
Russia – Ukraine
(AFP) Russia does not rule out fresh, three-way talks with Washington and Kyiv on the Ukraine war, the Kremlin said Monday, after a visit to Moscow and Kyiv by US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. US-led diplomatic efforts to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II have stalled in recent months, as Washington has shifted focus towards the war with Iran. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators last met for US-mediated talks in February, in Geneva, but failed to reach an agreement on the thorny issue of territory. Talks have not resumed since. – Russia says three-way talks with Ukraine, US could resume
(Alex Raufoglu – RFE/RL) The Trump administration has revived its diplomatic drive to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, as US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled from Moscow to Kyiv in a high-profile effort to lay the groundwork for another round of negotiations. But after separate meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the central question remains unanswered: Has Moscow changed its position enough to make a settlement possible? Three former US ambassadors to Ukraine interviewed by RFE/RL on September 6 said the answer, for now, appears to be no. – US Renews Ukraine Peace Push, But Former Ambassadors See No Breakthrough
(Kosta Gak, Sophie Tanno and Billy Stockwell – CNN) US envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner pushed for a return to trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine on Sunday after “substantive” discussions with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv. It marks their first visit to the Ukrainian capital since the war began and comes amid near-constant Russian missile and drone strikes on the city. Although no major breakthroughs were announced after Sunday’s talks, Witkoff said he was “confident that there’ll be a good resolution here”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said “several new ideas” were discussed during “good discussions” with the US, but did not expand on what those ideas were. – Witkoff confident of ‘good resolution’ after Kyiv meeting, as US pushes for trilateral talks with Russia | CNN
Saxony – Anhalt
(Milena Wälde – Politico) Berlin’s political establishment is staggering after the far-right Alternative for Germany scored a historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday night, forcing mainstream parties to confront how to keep it from power — and explain its stunning rise. The AfD won 43.8 percent of Sunday’s vote, more than doubling its 2021 result. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union crashed to 17.2 percent, its worst-ever showing in the eastern state. Thorsten Frei, leader of the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag, called the result a “turning point for our country” and said conservatives must ask why they were no longer reaching voters. CDU Secretary-General Franziska Hoppermann rejected any debate over Merz’s future and again ruled out cooperation with either the AfD or The Left. – ‘Turning point for our country’: German mainstream reels after huge far-right win – POLITICO
(Katya Adler – BBC) “Seismic”, “a socio-political earthquake”, “a watershed moment for Germany”. This was how political analysts and many media outlets described the stunning victory of the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in local elections in Germany on Sunday. Is that an exaggeration? Saxony-Anhalt is one of the smallest of massive Germany’s 16 regions. It boasts a mere 1.7m out of 59m eligible voters nationwide. How significant can its political sentiments be, especially since the AfD narrowly failed to win an outright majority? The answer: very significant. First and foremost, at home in Germany. The vote may have been regional but it impacts at national level. The AfD landslide piles even more pressure on the already beleaguered centrist coalition government in Berlin. It may prove to be the nail in the political coffin of Germany’s deeply unpopular conservative Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. He had promised to slash the AfD’s popularity. These political woes will further weaken and distract Germany, the EU’s most powerful player, at a time of continental crisis – as Europe struggles to contain Russian aggression, Donald Trump’s tariff tantrums and the economic threat from China. The Saxony-Anhalt result also provokes soul-searching throughout Germany, where the Nazi past still looms large. This is the first outstanding electoral landslide for a hard right nationalist party since the fall of the Third Reich in 1945. – Europe wrestles with impact of historic regional gains for Germany’s AfD
(Sebastian Shukla, Frederik Pleitgen, Claudia Otto – CNN) The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has secured a historic victory in the eastern region of Saxony-Anhalt, the closest a far-right party has come to holding power in a German state since World War II. The party leaders and their lead candidate were overjoyed as the results were read out, whooping and backslapping as they secured their “historic” victory with 44% of the votes, according to preliminary results. The win delivered the AfD 39 of 83 seats in parliament, just short of the 42 it needed for an absolute majority. The party’s route to a majority may lie with working in a coalition, potentially with the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party, which passed the 5% threshold to enter parliament – though the AfD has signaled it’s not interested in a deal. – Germany election results: Far-right AfD win historic victory, but fall short of majority to rule Saxony-Anhalt | CNN
Sweden
(Nicholas Vinocur – Politico) Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson must urgently take action to address claims that his potential far-right coalition partner may have been infiltrated by Russia ahead of this month’s general election, the front-runner in the race told POLITICO. The call by Magdalena Andersson, leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party, which polls have on course to win the Sept. 13 election, comes after the campaign was rocked by claims that an official inside the far-right Sweden Democrats party had longstanding ties to Russia. If Andersson wins, she’ll join embattled Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez as one of the few center-left politicians around the European leaders’ table. However, the gap between her coalition and a right-wing faction led by Kristersson has been narrowing as the election draws near. If Kristersson wins, the Sweden Democrats stand to enter government for the first time after the prime minister said he would govern with the far-right party. – Russia has entered Sweden’s election campaign, center-left front-runner warns – POLITICO
Syria
(AFP) An undeclared Syrian nuclear reactor being constructed during the era of former leader Bashar al-Assad was “almost complete,” representing an “important step” in any nuclear weapons program, the UN nuclear watchdog said on Monday. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last month visited two sites, one in Deir Ezzor and a second undisclosed location identified to them by Syrian authorities. In a report seen by AFP last week, the IAEA said it found that Syria’s previous government was building a nuclear reactor. – Secret Assad-era Syrian nuclear reactor was almost complete, IAEA says
Tech World, Cybersecurity, and Surveillance
(DigWatch) The Government of Canada has announced the Responsible Data Centre Development Principles (‘Principles’) – a framework for data‑centre operators. The Principles were launched with 23 initial signatories, including major cloud and AI providers such as Amazon Web Services, Anthropic, Bell Canada, Cohere, Equinix, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, OVHcloud and TELUS. – Canada government introduces Data Centre Principles
(DigWatch) Hopae and Technology Control Company (TCC) signed a partnership agreement during LEAP 2026 in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s flagship technology event. The agreement aims to accelerate the adoption of global electronic identities (eIDs) across Saudi Arabia while keeping the national identity infrastructure sovereign. Under the agreement, TCC will introduce Hopae Connect, described as a global eID verification hub, to government entities and enterprises throughout Saudi Arabia. The platform links more than 70 government‑issued eIDs and digital identity wallets through a single, compliant API, enabling Saudi organisations to verify individuals using the trusted digital identity of their home country rather than relying on document‑based checks. The partnership also provides joint training, solution workshops and co‑development of use cases for the Saudi market, with a route to market via TCC’s existing customer network. – Partnership brings cross-border digital identity verification to Saudi Arabia | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The Coastal & Ocean Resilience Data Collaborative (CORD), supported by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and led by CivicDataLab, is developing an open digital public infrastructure to strengthen coastal and ocean resilience across South and Southeast Asia. The platform brings together fragmented oceanographic, weather, socio-economic, infrastructure, finance, and citizen-reported data from government agencies, regional bodies, and communities, standardises them, and makes them interoperable to provide near-real-time insights into hazards, vulnerabilities, and exposure. – UNESCO-backed initiative advances open data infrastructure for coastal resilience | Digital Watch Observatory
US
(Sarah Ferris – CNN) The left wing of the Democratic Party flourished this summer as fed-up liberals in key races across the country have eschewed traditional, more moderate candidates in favor of hard-charging progressives. But behind the scenes, ultra-progressive House members and candidates are pushing their own party leaders to reflect more of that mood — arguing that Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and his allies are, so far, failing to grasp the demands of far-left voters who showed up in droves this summer. Those liberals watched in alarm in recent weeks as Jeffries publicly disavowed their marquee “Medicare for All” bill while a pro-Israel Democrat was elevated to a key foreign policy role within the caucus. They also argue his allies were working to undermine a pair of progressive candidates in Michigan and California. – Democrats might win in the midterms — but a whole new set of problems await | CNN Politics
(Ben Berkowitz – Axios) The war in Iran has now cost U.S. consumers $100 billion in higher energy prices, and the bill is rising another $1 million about every two minutes, per a real-time estimate from Brown University as of Monday morning. Energy inflation shows up across the entire economy, and the recent surge in diesel prices in particular threatens to have a dramatic impact on freight and travel in the weeks and months to come. The Iran War Energy Cost Tracker from Brown’s Watson School says higher gasoline and diesel prices have cost the average U.S. household more than $760 since the war began Feb. 28. – Iran war drives $100 billion in extra energy costs for U.S. consumers
(AFP) US President Donald Trump’s name-changing spree found an unlikely new target on Sunday when he suggested the state of New Mexico could become “New America”. His proposal, which was immediately dismissed by the state’s governor, comes days after he signed an order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America” in the middle of a trade war with neighboring Canada. “Many people suggested changing the name of New Mexico… to NEW AMERICA,” the Republican president posted on social media. “So much more prestigious and beautiful for the people of that potentially incredible State. Wow, I Love It!!!” – Trump suggests renaming New Mexico state ‘New America’
(DigWatch) The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has declined to suspend a lower court order blocking the expanded use of the Department of Homeland Security’s Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) database to check state voter rolls. In a 2–1 decision issued on 4 September, the court left in place restrictions preventing the system from being used ahead of the November midterm elections. – US appeals court maintains restrictions on voter database integration | Digital Watch Observatory
Vietnam
(Thang Nam Do – Lowy The Interpreter) Vietnam wants to become a strong maritime nation. Its new strategy makes clear that getting there will require more than ports and ships. It will also require institutions capable of deciding who can use an increasingly crowded sea, where, and on what terms. Resolution 20, adopted in July 2026, marks an important shift in how Vietnam thinks about the sea. It calls for a move from exploiting marine resources towards modern marine governance, and from sector-by-sector management towards integrated governance of national marine space. Institutional reform is identified as a strategic breakthrough, together with science, technology, and high-quality human resources. The economic stakes are considerable. With over 3,200 kilometres of coastline, Vietnam’s economic geography is already heavily maritime. Resolution 20 sets an ambitious target: for coastal provinces and cities to account for more than 70% of national GDP by 2030. The strategy also aims for 6–10 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030. But every turbine raises questions about access to marine space, interactions with fishing and shipping, transmission infrastructure, environmental impacts, and coastal communities. These competing claims are not hypothetical: Vietnam exported a record US$11.3 billion of seafood in 2025, while preparing for a potentially large offshore wind industry. Investment alone cannot resolve these trade-offs. The resolution acknowledges institutional challenges. Marine governance has not kept pace with development. Responsibilities overlap, inter-sectoral and inter-regional coordination remains weak, and marine science and human resources do not yet meet development needs. – Vietnam’s blue economy needs more than ports and ships | Lowy Institute
War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(David Goldman – CNN) The effects of the Iran war are obvious to most Americans: Gas prices have been hovering above $4 for weeks, mortgage rates are rising toward 7% and companies are adding shipping surcharges to make up for record diesel costs. Those cost-of-living increases have lasted longer than the Trump administration had claimed they would, although they should eventually reverse themselves if and when the United States and Iran reach a ceasefire agreement. But other economic changes won’t be so easily reversed. The war has altered the global economy in lasting ways that have reshaped the way the world does business. – Three ways the Iran war changed the global economy | CNN Business
(Bloomberg) The US is increasing diplomatic pressure on Iran by proposing that Tehran be referred to the United Nations Security Council over its stonewalling of nuclear inspectors, who have been unable to verify the location of the country’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium. The maneuver is expected to unfold this week at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors meeting in Vienna. Iran has blocked the UN watchdog from reviewing Iran’s uranium inventory for 15 months, since the start of Israeli airstrikes in June 2025. The US resolution demands that Iran “urgently remedy its non-compliance” and allow checks to ensure “the non-diversion of nuclear material,” according to a copy of the two-page document seen by Bloomberg News. – US to turn diplomatic screws on Iran over nuclear non-compliance
(AFP) Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday warned South Korea against military deployment or involvement in US operations in the Strait of Hormuz, saying such a move would have “serious consequences”. On Friday, Seoul said it was considering “contributions” to US security efforts in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has largely controlled since the outbreak of war against the United States on February 28. South Korea said it would consider the move provided that its own military readiness was not compromised, but added that no decision had been made. – Iran warns South Korea against involvement in Hormuz
(Reuters) An average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to shipping data on Monday, after US and Iranian strikes on tankers. The 10-day moving average was 10 on Sunday, down from more than 15 on Friday and nearly 13 on Saturday, data from analytics firm Kpler found. Only two vessels passed through the strait on Saturday while six went through on Sunday, mostly using the Iranian route. – Strait of Hormuz traffic dips to lowest since May after US, Iranian strikes on ships
Yemen
(Al Arabiya) The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, warned on Monday that recent attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi militia across several frontlines had triggered increasingly intense clashes, threatening to further expand the conflict and undermine efforts toward a political settlement. In a statement, Grundberg described the escalation as “extremely alarming” and expressed concern over reports of civilian casualties, displacement and damage to civilian infrastructure. – UN envoy warns Houthi attacks risk wider conflict in Yemen
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