Geostrategic magazine (24 august 2026)

The Global Eye is in partnership with SIOI – Società Italiana per l’Organizzazione Internazionale

Artificial Intelligence

*(DigWatch) Pope Leo XIV addressed lawmakers at the International Catholic Legislators Network’s annual conference in Rome on Friday. In his speech, the pontiff urged legislators to adopt ‘human‑first’ approaches to artificial intelligence (AI) policy, emphasising the need to uplift constituents and protect human dignity. He warned that ‘the rapid development of artificial intelligence risks creating new forms of technological dependence, with poorer nations increasingly reliant on wealthier ones’ and that ‘innovation could become another vehicle for ideological or economic colonialism.’ – Pope Leo XIV warns AI could become a new form of economic colonialism | Digital Watch Observatory

*(DigWatch) OpenAI chief executive officer Sam Altman expressed concern that artificial intelligence could eventually be controlled by a limited number of companies, models or individuals, leaving most consumers without influence over how the technology develops. Speaking on David Senra’s podcast, Altman said, ‘The right approach is to say we want people deeply in control of the future. Society and the models are going to co‑evolve.’ He added that one possible outcome is AI breaking free from human handlers, and that fear of this scenario could paradoxically lead to the concentration of control he warned about. – OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warns AI could be controlled by a few powerful players | Digital Watch Observatory

(DigWatch) In an interview with UN News journalist Feissal Kirwa, Meshack Malo, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Deputy Regional Representative for Africa, said fewer than 10 % of farmers are currently benefiting from digital agriculture services, with rural communities particularly affected by limited connectivity. Malo identified four key requirements to enable smallholder farmers to reap the benefits of AI‑driven agriculture: improved connectivity, reliable infrastructure, access to relevant data, and development of digital skills. He stressed that addressing these gaps is essential for inclusive digital transformation in the agricultural sector and aligns with broader efforts to promote digital access and inclusion across the continent. – FAO Deputy Regional Representative for Africa says connectivity, data and digital skills needed for AI in agriculture | Digital Watch Observatory

Australia

(DigWatch) The federal government intends to finalise new ’causer pays’ energy and water rules for large AI data centres at a national cabinet meeting on Wednesday, 26 April 2026, despite opposition from Queensland. Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the Commonwealth will proceed without Queensland, adding that ‘the Queensland government’s made their views pretty clear; we disagree with them, and we’re proceeding without them’. The proposed rules would require data centre projects to purchase power from newly built renewable energy schemes, backed by gas, to avoid higher electricity bills and reduced reliability. – Australian federal government pushes data centre rules, Queensland opposes | Digital Watch Observatory

China – US – Iran

(Reuters) China’s foreign ministry said on Monday Beijing will closely watch developments and do what is necessary to protect its rights as the US prepares to unveil new Iran sanctions that are expected to target Tehran’s trading partners. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is set to hold a press conference on Monday, has threatened to impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran and urged China to cooperate with Washington. – China vows to protect its rights as US readies Iran sanction 

China – US – Space Race

*(Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan – ASPI The Strategist) China has abruptly postponed its planned Chang’e-7 lunar launch, which was scheduled to take place today. While the new launch timeline is unclear, the mission could still be a significant step in the US-China space race. The launch was initially scheduled for 23 August before being rescheduled for today and eventually postponed indefinitely. Some outlets have reported poor weather as a reason for the delay, but official statements have given limited details, saying that the lunar expedition ‘failed to meet launch criteria’. It’s now less clear whether China will return to the lunar surface before the United States. If it can, it may be able to gain advantages in areas such as resource mapping and the reshaping of norms, supporting Beijing to pursue its ambitions in outer space. While the US still holds considerable advantages gained through its earlier lunar explorations, this mission could provide China with a crucial edge. – Despite delays, China could gain ground in the space race | The Strategist

Defence and Military

(Al Vigier – ASPI The Strategist) Armed forces need greater robustness from the systems they are increasingly using to support combat decision-making. These software systems must keep satisfactorily advising officers on decisions even when communications links go down, as they must be expected to go down. Delegation to lower-level commanders improves combat effectiveness: action continues even when higher officers have lost an ability to direct. Sometimes the higher command, though still in contact, wants lower officers to take control, because they may have better and faster awareness of what is going on. All this delegation works better if helped by decision-support software, which offers expertise that a local commander may lack and which eases his or her cognitive load. It may, for example, recommend which of three possible dispersal sites for an air-defence battery is best, or which casualty evacuation task needs to go first. In another case, the software may give its assessment of which track of an unknown unit – say, an aircraft or ground vehicle – has met the threshold for reporting as hostile. – How to make military decision-support software reliable when comms go down | The Strategist

Germany 

(Marc Felix Serrao – Politico) It’s not the kind of photo op German Chancellor Friedrich Merz would likely want to frame for his office wall: him standing next to Ulrich Siegmund, the far-right politician a national magazine recently labeled the country’s “most dangerous man”. And yet, such a picture might soon be hard for Merz to avoid. On Sept. 6, Siegmund is set for a sweeping victory in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt. If his far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secures an outright majority in the state parliament, Siegmund will likely become premier, and his party will have broken through the political “firewall” that has kept it out of all federal and state governments since its founding in 2013. It would be a historic triumph for the AfD and a shock to Germany’s political system. As premier, one of Siegmund’s earliest duties would be to take over the annually rotating chair position of the regular conferences of Germany’s 16 state premiers. The role usually comes with a visit to Berlin and a joint appearance with the chancellor before the press. Calling this uncharted territory would be an understatement. “The AfD is questioning the fundamental decisions made by the Federal Republic of Germany since 1949,” Merz once said. The chancellor is not alone in his concern. All other major parties, and large parts of the German media, see the AfD as a threat to the country’s liberal postwar order. Yet, if the party takes power in a state for the first time, the political establishment will no longer be able to keep it at arm’s length. While normal relations may be out of the question, at least for the foreseeable future, Germany’s federal system requires a minimum of cooperation and mutual support. So how would the German establishment deal with a state governed by the AfD? POLITICO put this question to officials in the federal government and several state governments. The reluctance to answer was striking, especially among Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. Senior party figures and state ministers either refused to comment or would not be quoted by name. The hesitation is understandable. The CDU and the CSU once owned the political space to the right of center. Today, the AfD is eating into it. State ministers from both the Social Democrats and the Greens were more prepared to discuss strategy on the record. The conversations for this article were dominated by a single concern: domestic security, especially the protection of intelligence information, given the AfD’s advocacy for closer ties with President Vladimir Putin’s Russia. According to Social Democrat Georg Maier, who serves as the state of Thuringia’s interior minister, Siegmund’s party has “good channels” to Moscow. “If the AfD provides the minister-president in Saxony-Anhalt, the champagne corks will be popping in the Kremlin,” he told POLITICO. Although there is no playbook yet for containing an AfD government, the thinking in Berlin and several state capitals has already moved well beyond the abstract. – Germany’s establishment has a plan to contain the far right. Sort of. – POLITICO

Holy See – Russia

*(Marcello Neri – Appia Institute) August 24 marks the start of Archbishop P.R. Gallagher’s five-day visit to Russia. Gallagher is the Holy See’s Secretary for Relations with States and International Organizations. This is the first official visit by a Holy See Secretariat of State representative since the start of the war in Ukraine, where Gallagher recently traveled from August 13 to 16. On Tuesday, August 25, Archbishop Gallagher will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov. A ministry spokeswoman outlined the main topics to be addressed during the meeting, which include cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Holy See, as well as the situation regarding the war in Ukraine. Since the beginning of the conflict, the Holy See has maintained a consistent position of condemning Russia’s armed invasion of Ukraine, urging the resolution of underlying issues through diplomacy, and committing to maintaining open channels of dialogue with the countries involved. There has been no official, direct meeting between Russia and the Holy See on Russian soil since 2021, when Archbishop Gallagher traveled to Moscow for a series of meetings just a few months before the conflict began. – Holy See: Diplomatic Mission to Russia – Appia Institute

Indonesia

(Arrizal Jaknanihan – Lowy The Interpreter) Anticipating fluctuations in US tariff rates, Indonesia since last year has been fast-tracking the implementation trade deals for alternative markets, including the European Union and Canada, each through its own recently concluded Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). But tariff elimination alone will not guarantee that these markets will remain open during times of external disruption. Indonesia must also pursue a binding mutual agreement that ensures trading partners keep their borders open, allowing goods to be transshipped even during supply chain disruptions. The neighbouring nation Singapore has just set an example that policymakers in Jakarta can emulate. On 17 July 2026, Singapore and New Zealand implemented the Agreement on Trade in Essential Supplies (AOTES). The agreement will ensure that the flow of essential goods, including food, energy, and medical supplies, between the two partners continues unimpeded. A similar deal is in the works between Singapore and Australia after both parties signed the Protocol on Economic Resilience and Essential Supplies under the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement on 27 July 2026. – Making trade with Indonesia disruption-proof | Lowy Institute

Iran

(The Associated Press) Iran’s currency hit a record low Monday as Washington prepared to announce new sanctions it said would add further pressure on an economy already battered by previous sanctions and a US naval blockade. The rial dropped to 2.02 million to the US dollar as trading opened on currency markets. Iran’s official Central Bank rate stood at around 1.5 million rial to the dollar, but the market rate is what most Iranians pay. – Iran’s rial currency hits new record low as US prepares to announce more sanctions

Iran – Oman 

(AFP) Oman’s foreign minister will travel to Iran on Tuesday, Iran’s foreign ministry said, as Tehran and Muscat seek a way to regulate the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Badr al-Busaidi will hold the “ongoing political consultations between the two sides, as two littoral states of the Strait of Hormuz, to help strengthen peace and security in the region,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in a statement on Monday. – Oman top diplomat to visit Iran to discuss Hormuz Strait

New Zealand

(DigWatch) New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced that the National Party will introduce a bill in Parliament that seeks to ban children under 16 from using social media. Such legislation follows the lead of several countries across the world, including Australia’s Online Safety Amendment, the United Arab Emirates’ Federal-Decree Law on Child Digital Safety, and similar proposals undergoing review in Poland, Slovakia and the United Kingdom, amongst others. The draft legislation would allow fines of up to 10 % of a platform’s global revenue for non‑compliance and would require platforms to take reasonable steps to verify users’ ages, including by utilising existing account information, facial technology and digital identity documents. Platforms would also be required to assess the risks they pose as well as report on how those risks are being reduced. – New Zealand proposes bill to ban under-16s from social media | Digital Watch Observatory

Russia – Ukraine

(AFP) Russian e-commerce giant Ozon said that its warehouses came under drone attack on Monday, as Ukraine pressed ahead with its campaign targeting logistics sites. Kyiv has for weeks mounted a campaign targeting Russia’s Wildberries – the country’s top online retailer – alleging it supplied components to the military. Ozon is Russia’s second-largest online marketplace, with its pick-up points and delivery boxes ubiquitous across the country. “After Ukrainian units hit the 15 largest logistics hubs of Wildberries, it is now Ozon’s turn,” Ukraine’s defense ministry said on Saturday. – Ukraine keeps up attacks on Russian e-commerce giant Ozon

(RFE/RL and RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued an appeal for greater international pressure on Russia to force it to the negotiating table. Speaking in an address on his nation’s Independence Day, Zelenskyy called on the United States, Europe, and China to each play their part. “I believe that America will lose all its contradictions and phobias about Russia. The Russians must be brought to the negotiating table. There finally must be sanctions that will make them howl,” Zelenskyy said in his address, marking 35 years since Ukraine became independent from Moscow amid the collapse of the Soviet Union. “Europe must be Europe. United, ambitious, brave. China should no longer remain silent,” he added. “China must prove its ambition to be one of the world’s leaders, not only economically and technologically, but also as a civilization – making it clear that no dictators have the right to threaten the planet with their old warheads.” – Zelenskyy Marks Independence Day With Call ‘To Make Russia Howl’

(Jamie Dettmer, Daria Zakharova – Politico) For most of Russia’s years-long war against Ukraine, Russian civilians have been relatively insulated from Kyiv’s attacks. That is changing. Since July, Kyiv has broadened its long-range drone campaign beyond conventional military targets, intensifying strikes on Russia’s oil and gas industry and hitting the vast warehouses of Wildberries, Russia’s answer to Amazon. While these are primarily intended to cause economic damage, in the words of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “to bring the war back home – to Russia,” they also mark another important shift. Ukrainian authorities are increasingly seeing Russian civilian casualties as a price they are prepared to pay for taking the war deeper into enemy territory. The numbers help illustrate the change. In 2025, Ukrainian attacks inside Russia killed 253 civilians, according to the United Nations, which says it was not able to independently verify the numbers. This year, in the month of July alone, Russian authorities reported that 79 civilians were killed and 601 injured, a marked increase in the casualty rate. Zelenskyy has said that Wildberries is a legitimate target because it has been “used by the aggressor to ensure the supply of sanctioned components for the production of drones and navigation equipment.” Russian soldiers supplement their equipment by purchasing items from Wildberries. Maryana Bezuhla, a Ukrainian lawmaker and one of the most outspoken critics of Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s military leadership, is unapologetic about the increased risk to civilians. “Russia’s logistics system is used to wage the war of aggression against Ukraine,” she told POLITICO. “Russia has been targeting Ukrainian civilians all the years of the war”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has denied accusations from Ukraine that Wildberries handles military supplies but conceded to journalists that “the situation is indeed difficult” for the company. –  Ukraine widens its targets — and its tolerance for civilian casualties  – POLITICO

(RFE/RL) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s push to bolster international support and receive additional air defenses continues on August 24 as the so-called Coalition of the Willing meets to discuss ways to pressure Russia to halt its invasion months ahead of another likely brutal winter. The summit — with some leaders attending in person in Kyiv and others joining by video conference — comes a day after a grouping of Baltic and Nordic nations gathered in the Ukrainian capital in a show of support for Ukraine. The Coalition of the Willing, led by London and Paris, is an informal grouping of some 34 countries supporting Ukraine. No US representative was identified as a participant in the upcoming meeting. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s office said the new UK leader will arrive in Kyiv on August 24, his first international visit since taking office a month ago, “to reiterate the UK’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine”. The statement said Britain had “agreed that defense firm MBDA can release classified information on UK components for the long-range missile, SCALP, to establish local assembly lines in Ukraine”. Ahead of the event, Zelenskyy stressed the urgency of securing European funding for Ukraine’s defense — especially against Russia’s deadly ballistic missiles — calling on the European Parliament to approve the legislation needed to unlock the money. “We are supposed to receive 30 billion euros in European funding…. It is tied to the adoption of the relevant legislation,” he said. “It is very important here that parliament works — the entire parliament, including the opposition. Because [this money is] needed for the defense of the entire country”. French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and British Prime Minister Andy Burnham will co-chair the meeting, which will focus on continued military support for Ukraine, air defense, and longer-term security arrangements. Both Macron and NATO Deputy Secretary-General Radmila Sekerinska will join the summit remotely via video link. – Zelenskyy Turns To Coalition Of The Willing In Push To Bolster Ukraine’s Defenses

Syria

(AFP) A Syrian court on Monday handed a life sentence to Ahmad Hassoun, the country’s former grand mufti under ousted leader Bashar al-Assad, convicting him of crimes including inciting sectarian strife and exploiting his position. – Syria sentences Assad-era top Muslim cleric to life imprisonment

Syria – Israel 

*(Reuters) Syria and Israel held high-level, US-mediated talks in Jordan on Sunday aimed at easing tensions following recent Israeli strikes on Syrian territory, Syria’s state news agency SANA reported, citing a diplomatic source at the foreign ministry. The talks focused on practical mechanisms to halt Israeli strikes, arrests and targeted operations, and on reviving negotiations toward a security agreement that could lay the groundwork for a broader future accord, SANA said. The two sides also discussed efforts to ease tensions between Israel and Turkey and to prevent their rivalry from spilling onto Syrian territory. – Syria, Israel hold US-mediated talks to ease tensions

UK – Ukraine 

*(Brad Lendon – CNN) Britain will allow the release of classified technology so that a British/French-designed cruise missile can be manufactured in Ukraine, a boost for Kyiv in its efforts to bring more firepower to bear hundreds of kilometers into Russia. Paris and Kyiv want to set up a Ukrainian production line for the SCALP air-launched cruise missile, known as the Storm Shadow in the United Kingdom, by the end of the year. The declassification of information on British-made components of the missiles, announced Monday, is a key step towards that goal. Made by European arms manufacturer MBDA, SCALP is a conventionally armed, long-range, deep-strike weapon, of which Ukraine has used imported versions with success against hardened targets, including in November 2024, when they were fired at targets inside Russia for the first time. Powered by a turbojet engine, it has a maximum range of 550 kilometers (342 miles) and can carry a 400-kilogram (880 pounds) high-explosive penetrating warhead, according to the Missile Threat project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). – Britain’s giving Ukraine access to secret missile technology. Will it make a difference? | CNN

US

(Thomas Novelly – Defense One) As the Space Force takes on new, multi-billion-dollar national security programs, the service has awarded a new contract to keep those projects on track and on budget, Defense One has learned. The service’s Space Systems Integration Office awarded Integrate, a Seattle-based firm, a multi-million dollar contract for its AI-enabled project management program. Last year, the company netted a $25 million contract with the Space Force’s Mission Manifest Office to manage the service major multi-payload launch operation project. Now, as the service embarks on massive programs such as building the Space Data Network and the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator, the service is expanding its use of the company’s software to help keep program managers on the right track. “SSIO serves as the central nervous system for the Space Force and the singular integrator across the majority of the national security space enterprise,” Integrate told Defense One. “To maintain the U.S. advantage in space, the office is actively pursuing technological advancements to ensure programs are executed within cost and schedule constraints, and to provide leaders with real-time visibility into the entire Space Force portfolio.” – New contract aims to keep Space Force’s multi-billion-dollar projects on budget – Defense One

US – Asia

*(Hugh White – Lowy The Interpreter) Last week Donald Trump gave America’s Asian allies yet another reason to wonder about the future of America’s role in the region. By nonchalantly slashing a key annual exercise with South Korea he made it clearer than ever how little he cares about the strategic interests and perceptions of countries that America is supposedly committed to defend. Foreign Minister Penny Wong coyly alluded to this in her Allan Gyngell Lecture to the Lowy Institute this month. In a characteristic understatement, Wong said, “We have always understood that President Trump envisages a different role for the United States in the world”. What she said next is important. “Even so,” she said, “the United States remains the world’s largest economic and military power, with daily influence over international events that have consequences for every nation, including Australia”. Her message is clear. Donald Trump is an aberration, and when he passes from the scene things will return to the way they used to be, with America as committed and as capable as ever of ensuring Asia’s stability and Australia’s security. That is a big mistake, because it both underestimates and overestimates Trump. It underestimates what he means for US domestic politics. And it overestimates what he means for America’s changing role in the world and in Asia. Trump has not dominated and transformed American politics through his own strange and remarkable capacities. He has been enabled by deep flaws in the US political system, especially in the two great parties at its core. The old Republican Party has collapsed under Trump’s assault, and now stands for whatever Trump says it stands for. In 2028, even if Trump does not find a way to run himself, he will in effect decide the party’s candidate, and JD Vance is considered the favourite. – Trump didn’t cause America’s retreat from Asia – he’s the symptom | Lowy Institute

US – Europe

*(Mara Karlin, Julianne Smith – Defense One) Bloomberg recently reported that the Trump administration will consider European countries’ ideological positions and support for U.S. policies as part of the European posture review that is currently underway. Whether a country has supported the 2026 Iran War, placed recent restrictions on U.S. forces based in their country, or “publicly opposed” regulations that constrain U.S. business in Europe will all be factors in determining where and how many forces remain stationed in Europe. These loyalty tests depart from decades of established practices of evaluating and adjusting U.S. force posture, are likely to backfire, and above all, could leave America less safe. The U.S. military’s ability to find, fix, and finish practically any target around the world is built on its global military posture. No other country has ever had such varied and dispersed capabilities, all enabled by an unparalleled network of allies and partners. The importance of our overseas posture leads many new administrations to look at whether troop levels, capabilities, and locations match the most recent threat assessments. – The wrong way to review US force posture in Europe – Defense One

US – Iran

(Donald Self – Al Arabiya) The United States is preparing to launch what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described as the “single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary”, signaling a dramatic expansion of Washington’s economic campaign against Iran. Unlike previous rounds of sanctions primarily aimed at Tehran, the new measures appear designed to target the countries, companies and financial networks that continue to facilitate Iranian trade, particularly oil exports, reflecting a growing US focus on Iran’s external economic lifelines rather than the regime alone. In an opinion piece published in the Financial Times on Monday ahead of the announcement, Bessent argued that nations which purchase Iranian petroleum, facilitate financial transactions, host Iranian commercial activity or otherwise help Tehran evade sanctions risk sharing in its economic isolation. The language points to increased pressure on jurisdictions that maintain commercial ties with Iran. – Iran’s biggest trade partners could face new US sanctions pressure

US – North Korea

*(Seong-Hyon Lee – Lowy The Interpreter) Donald Trump’s recent public acknowledgment that North Korea possesses “57 very powerful nuclear weapons(Opens in new window)” was framed by the president himself as evidence of his pragmatic ability to manage the threat. Yet, coupled with his expressed expectation to meet Kim Jong-un again this year(Opens in new window), Trump’s rhetoric has exposed a fundamental contradiction in US policy. Even though the White House’s November 2025 Joint Fact Sheet on President Trump’s meeting with President Lee Jae Myung(Opens in new window) explicitly stated that the two leaders reiterated their commitment to “the complete denuclearisation of the DPRK,” the optics of the US commander-in-chief are now unmistakable: he is treating a substantial nuclear arsenal as an accepted baseline fact. This American transactionalism traps Seoul in a dilemma, evidenced this week when South Korea’s Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back(Opens in new window) had to officially maintain the policy of non-recognition of North Korea’s nuclear status, while carefully navigating questions about Trump’s specific “57 nukes” assessment. More importantly, this American transactionalism is inadvertently feeding directly into China’s preferred endgame for the Korean Peninsula. For years, Washington and Beijing at least nominally shared the goal of a denuclearised North Korea. But recent diplomatic signalling suggests that this shared foundational principle is being abandoned. While Washington blurs the lines through personalised summiteering, Beijing is engaging in a quiet, linguistic retreat from nuclear disarmament. – Trump’s “57 nukes” and the hollowing out of North Korean denuclearisation | Lowy Institute

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