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GLOBAL NEWS
Germany – France – Russia
(Agencies/Al Arabiya) German authorities said Wednesday they were giving the green light to a controversial French-Russian nuclear project which critics fear will enable spying and sabotage by Moscow. The planned joint venture by a subsidiary of French company Framatome and Russia’s state-owned nuclear power agency Rosatom is aimed at producing fuel rods used in Russian-designed reactors. The project would be based at Framatome’s fuel rod assembly facility in the town of Lingen in the state of Lower Saxony. – Germany approves controversial French-Russian nuclear project
Ukraine
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) Ukraine has recaptured 700 sq km (270 sq miles) of its territory this year, outgoing Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Wednesday, confirming he was leaving the top military job. “I am handing over to my successor an army that is not only holding the defense but is also on the offensive,” Syrskyi said in a statement on Telegram. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that a young major general, Mykhailo Drapatyi, would replace Syrskyi after days of street protests. – Ukraine recaptured 700 sq km of territory this year, outgoing top general says
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday named a young major general, Mykhailo Drapatyi, as the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s military after days of street protests, marking the biggest shake-up in the country’s military leadership since its war with Russia began. Zelenskyy replaced Oleksandr Syrskyi, 60, with Drapatyi, 43, a respected and experienced commander who led the country’s land forces from 2024 to 2025 and is described as a general of a new generation. Last week, Zelenskyy’s government reshuffle and dismissal of tech-savvy reformist Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, 35, after just half a year in office, stirred concerns among analysts that Ukraine’s recent battlefield momentum could be lost. – Ukraine gets new top commander as protests spark war’s biggest military shake up
US
(Stef W. Kight – Axios) Hardline conservatives are gaining power in the Senate atop key committees. The senators known for rankling GOP leadership now have gavels that let them hold hearings, advance legislation and even issue subpoenas. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) will be the new chair of the Budget Committee, Senate Republicans agreed in their closed-door lunch Tuesday. The committee, which has a key role in reconciliation, had been chaired by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Johnson also chairs the Homeland Security subcommittee on investigations, allowing him to launch probes into everything from former President Biden’s health to Meta’s alleged cooperation with China. – Senate rabble-rousers are gaining power
(Hans Nichols – Axios) Progressive groups are opening a vicious new front in the fight over crypto legislation, targeting Sen Kirsten Gillibrand as she tries to broker a compromise on the CLARITY Act, which has unresolved issues on its ethics provisions. The blistering — and deeply personal — attack from Indivisible, Demand Progress and the Revolving Door Project complicates already delicate negotiations. It’s also a warning shot to Democrats: Progressive groups are prepared to make support for the bill politically painful, even if it means another bruising intraparty fight over one of the crypto industry’s top legislative priorities. “Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), is a prime example of a Democratic leader whose conduct undermines efforts to hold the Trump administration accountable for their rampant corruption,” the groups wrote in a letter sent to every Democratic Senate office Tuesday evening. “Fair or not, criticisms of the Trump administration’s overwhelming corruption fall flat when voters perceive the critics to be engaged in substantively similar behavior.” – Scoop: Progressives scorch Gillibrand over crypto
(Sara Fischer – Axios) Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate whether plans by Truth Social’s parent company to sell Wall Street firms real-time access to President Trump’s posts could violate federal securities laws, according to a copy of the letter obtained by Axios. The letter escalates scrutiny of Trump Media & Technology Group’s plan to monetize faster access for institutional investors to President Trump’s market-moving social posts. TMTG’s new Truth API product, which is slated to debut Aug. 1, will provide real-time access to publicly available posts from the platform’s top 10 trending accounts, Axios reported last week. – Scoop: Lawmaker asks SEC to investigate Truth Social’s plan to monetize access to its data
US – Saudi Arabia
(Al Arabiya) US President Donald Trump has formally approved an agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide it with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment in the Kingdom, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. The new deal would last 30 years and is designed to give US companies “a central role in developing Saudi Arabia’s nuclear infrastructure”. “A key provision of the new accord would have American companies build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a joint US-Saudi study determines such a step would be warranted,” the WSJ report said. – Trump approves nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia
War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(AFP/Al Arabiya) Iran again denied the existence of any secret nuclear complex at Kolang mountain on Wednesday, after US President Donald Trump threatened to strike the site in the center of the country. “Washington’s obsessive focus on Kolang Kouh where no nuclear activity is taking place is nothing more than a fabricated pretext for aggression, destruction, and sabotage,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on X. – Iran denies existence of nuclear facility at Kolang mountain
(Al Arabiya) The US military said in a statement on Wednesday that it ended its latest round of strikes on Iran that marked the 11th consecutive night of American attacks. “CENTCOM assets targeted Iranian military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” the US Central Command said in a statement. – US military says new strikes on Iran have ended, marking 11th successive night of attacks
(Al Arabiya) Vessel crossings via the Strait of Hormuz dropped further on Tuesday, shipping data showed, as security concerns lingered amid ongoing attacks by the United States and Iran. A total of three commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, down from four the previous day, Kpler data showed. The general cargo ship the Kaiser exited the strait loaded with cargo, while the dry bulk carrier H7 Smb8 entered the strait in ballast, Kpler data showed, meaning it will take on a cargo in the Gulf. – Strait of Hormuz vessel crossings fall further as security concerns linger
(Al Arabiya) US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday the United States is still willing to negotiate an end to the Iran crisis but Tehran is not serious about talks, as the widening conflict disrupted two of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Rubio made his comments in a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire in efforts to salvage the interim ceasefire agreement signed by the US and Iran in June, which replaced an earlier April ceasefire. – Rubio says US still willing to negotiate over Iran crisis
Global Hunger
(UN News) Global hunger declined for a third consecutive year in 2025 showing that progress is possible, but gains remain fragile and far too slow to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the 2030 deadline. The warning comes in the latest edition of The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report issued on Tuesday by five United Nations agencies. Estimates show that 7.8 per cent of the global population, or roughly 645 million people, faced hunger in 2025. This is down from 8.1 per cent in 2024 and 8.6 per cent in 2022, or nearly 14 million fewer people than in 2024 and 43 million fewer compared to 2022. – Global hunger declines again but progress remains uneven across regions | UN News
Migrants and Refugees
(UN News) The UN’s refugee agency (UNHCR) reports that 144 migrants attempting to reach Europe are dead or missing due to a series of “tragic maritime incidents” off the coast of Mauritania last week. The migrants, many of whom were refugees, spent 25 days stranded on a boat from The Gambia headed for Spain’s Canary Islands, highlighting the dangerous nature of this sea route. Between 14 and 18 July, UNHCR, national authorities and humanitarian partners were present at three disembarkations which brought 387 people safely ashore. Rescue efforts culminated in an operation on 18 July where teams found 38 survivors and 143 dead or missing. Among the survivors that day were two children who lost their entire families at sea. – UN refugee agency reports 144 migrants dead or missing off Mauritanian coast | UN News
Tech World, Cybersecurity and Surveillance
(DigWatch) France’s parliament has approved legislation that will prohibit children under 15 from accessing social media, making it the first European country to introduce a nationwide ban of this kind. The law, backed by both the National Assembly and the Senate, will be implemented in two phases, with age verification for all new accounts beginning in September 2026 and extending to all existing accounts from January 2027. Under the new rules, social media platforms will be required to use age verification systems approved by the French data protection authority (CNIL). From January 2027, every user in France will have to verify that they are at least 15 years old to continue accessing social media services. – France adopts law banning under-15s from social media | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) Meta is expanding parental supervision on Threads with new tools that allow parents and guardians to monitor activity, set screen-time limits and manage privacy settings for teenage users. The tools will begin rolling out in the United States next week through Meta’s Family Center. They build on the company’s existing Teen Accounts, which provide private profiles and restrictions on potentially sensitive content by default. Parents will be able to view a teenager’s Threads usage over the previous seven days, including average daily screen time, set daily usage limits and block access during selected hours or days. – Meta expands Threads parental controls for teenagers | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Translation (DGT) has released an open large language model designed to provide balanced performance across all 24 official EU languages. Named the EU-Institutional-LLM, it is available in both base and instruct versions through the European Language Data Space. Unlike many large language models that perform best in only a handful of languages, the EU-Institutional-LLM was designed to provide balanced support across all official EU languages while understanding the legislation, terminology and policy context specific to the Union. The model is trained using DGT’s high-quality multilingual datasets. – EU releases multilingual AI model for all 24 official languages | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The 19th session of the United Nations Expert Mechanism on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (EMRIP), organised by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in Geneva, highlighted progress under the International Decade of Indigenous Languages (2022–2032), with discussions placing renewed emphasis on the opportunities and governance challenges posed by digital technologies and AI. A report presented during the session noted that digital technologies and AI can support language revitalisation while also raising questions about Indigenous Peoples’ rights to maintain ownership and control over their languages, cultural heritage and traditional knowledge. EMRIP member Janine Gama Bara urged caution to ensure these technologies are deployed in ways that respect Indigenous rights. – UN advances digital strategy for Indigenous language preservation | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The Spanish Data Protection Agency (AEPD) has published guidance examining how data quality relates to the GDPR’s accuracy principle when personal data is processed using AI. The document argues that, although closely linked, data quality is broader than the GDPR’s concept of accuracy because it also applies to non-personal data and encompasses requirements beyond the regulation. According to the guide, properties such as veracity and currentness should only be required where they are genuinely necessary for the intended purpose. – Spanish regulator clarifies GDPR accuracy rules for AI data | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) India’s Ministry of Ayush has reported progress in expanding the Ayush Grid, a digital public infrastructure designed to support healthcare delivery, research, regulation, education and public services across the country’s traditional medicine sector. The ministry said it has developed 24 e-governance platforms, including the My Ayush Integrated Services Portal, which brings together ministry services within a single digital ecosystem and features a beta AI chatbot to assist users. – India expands Ayush Grid digital health infrastructure | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) South Korea has unveiled the ‘K-AI Package’, a development cooperation strategy that combines AI infrastructure, digital capacity development and development finance to support AI adoption in developing countries while expanding international opportunities for Korean technology companies. The strategy was presented on 20 July during a ministerial meeting on global economic affairs chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Koo Yun Cheol. – South Korea expands AI diplomacy through new development package | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) Microsoft and French AI company Mistral have expanded their strategic partnership to strengthen sovereign AI deployment in Europe, giving enterprises and regulated industries greater control over how frontier AI is deployed and managed. The agreement combines Mistral’s AI models and expanding European compute infrastructure with Microsoft’s AI platform, allowing organisations to run AI workloads across cloud, hybrid and fully disconnected environments while maintaining greater control over data, operations and regulatory compliance. A central element of the partnership is a multibillion-dollar investment in European AI infrastructure. Microsoft will leverage Mistral’s expanding GPU capacity, powered by thousands of NVIDIA Vera Rubin GPUs, to support AI training, inference and large-scale deployment while increasing capacity for Microsoft’s cloud and AI services. – Microsoft and Mistral expand sovereign AI partnership in Europe | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) UNESCO and Egypt’s Ministry of Education and Technical Education have launched a national Artificial Intelligence Competency Framework for Teachers, marking a major step in integrating AI into teacher training and education reform. Based on UNESCO’s global framework and adapted to Egypt’s national priorities, the initiative makes Egypt one of the first countries to introduce a nationally tailored AI competency framework for teachers. Developed through collaboration between the Ministry of Education and Technical Education, the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology and UNESCO, the framework aims to equip teachers with the knowledge, practical skills and ethical understanding needed to integrate AI into teaching and learning. – UNESCO and Egypt introduce AI framework for teachers | Digital Watch Observatory
(Danny Palmer – Infosecurity Magazine) Two of OpenAI’s frontier artificial intelligence models acted of their own accord to breach the systems of Hugging Face, the AI software development company. In a blog post disclosing the incident, published on July 21, OpenAI claimed that a combination of its models, including GPT‑5.6 Sol and an unspecified pre-release model resulted in what the company described as “unprecedented cyber incident”. Hugging Face had disclosed the unauthorized intrusion into its production infrastructure on July 16. This included access to what was described as a limited set of internal datasets and several credentials used by Hugging Face’s services. At the time, Hugging Face noted that it suspected the intrusion was the work of an autonomous AI agent system. “We suspected last week’s cyberattack might have come from a frontier lab, given the sophistication of the agent. Turns out it did!,” Clement Delangue, co-founder and CEO of Hugging Face posted on social media. According to Open AI, the incident occurred during an internal evaluation of how AI models can conduct offensive cyber operations. The test was run in a constrained environment with limited network access and restricted abilities. The intent of the test was not for the model to act maliciously or cause harm. Despite this, the models identified then linked together vulnerabilities across OpenAI’s research environment and Hugging Face’s production infrastructure to obtain test solutions directly from Hugging Face’s production database. – OpenAI Claims Its AI Models Went Rogue and Hacked Another Company – Infosecurity Magazine
(Alessandro Mascellino – Infosecurity Magazine) A newly disclosed vulnerability in the Ubuntu component that isolates snap applications has been found to hand full root access to any local user on default installations of Ubuntu Desktop 24.04, 25.10 and 26.04. According to new research from the Qualys Threat Research Unit (TRU) published on July 21, the flaw sits in snap-confine, the enforcement component that builds the execution environment for snap applications. It is tracked as CVE-2026-8933 and rated high severity. It follows a separate snap-confine root-escalation flaw the same team disclosed in the tool four months earlier. Jason Soroko, senior fellow at certificate lifecycle management (CLM) provider Sectigo, said the root cause carried a lesson beyond the individual bug. Least privilege, he said, “is not a property of a binary alone. It depends on the full sequence of operations around that binary.” – Ubuntu snap-confine Vulnerability Enables Local Root Access – Infosecurity Magazine
(Kevin Poireault – Infosecurity Magazine) Users of Google’s Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform and AI Threat Defense can leverage CodeMender, now a fully managed AI code security agent built for the enterprise, to find and fix vulnerabilities. Developed by Google DeepMind, CodeMender was officially introduced in October 2025 primarily as an advanced security research project. It initially offered capabilities such as autonomous, research-based software vulnerability discovery, debugging and patching. The system utilized Gemini reasoning models alongside static and dynamic code analysis tools to perform deep root-cause analysis on codebase defects. Rather than merely pointing out theoretical security issues, it focused on generating correct patches and automatically validating them to ensure they resolved vulnerabilities without causing regressions. In its initial research phase, the DeepMind team said CodeMender also demonstrated proactive capabilities by successfully rewriting legacy codebase patterns to pre-emptively eliminate entire classes of vulnerabilities, resulting in the successful upstreaming of 72 security fixes to major open-source projects under human-in-the-loop oversight. – Google Makes CodeMender Available as Managed AI Security Agent – Infosecurity Magazine
(Alastair Paterson – Infosecurity Magazine) After the sugar rush of AI investments, organizations are now starting to grapple with the ROI question and wondering what they’ve got to show for it. Organizations typically measure AI adoption in terms of seats purchased, tokens consumed, and monthly active users. But this tells us nothing about whether the investment is working, which teams are actually using AI, or what they are doing with it. And this issue is compounded by employees interchangeably using AI tools with employer-provided enterprise accounts often used for things that have nothing to do with their jobs. – Employees Are Misusing AI tools at Work – Infosecurity Magazine
(DigWatch) The UN’s permanent cyber mechanism has begun shifting from identifying cyber threats towards implementing the international commitments already agreed by member states, with delegations broadly calling for practical action under the existing UN framework for responsible state behaviour in cyberspace. During the fourth meeting of the first substantive session of the Global Mechanism on Developments in the Field of ICTs in the Context of International Security, member states concluded discussions on the evolving cyber threat landscape before turning their attention to the implementation of the 11 voluntary and non-binding norms first agreed by the UN Group of Governmental Experts in 2015. While views differed on whether additional norms may eventually be required, a broad range of delegations agreed that the immediate priority should be helping countries apply the existing framework through practical cooperation, capacity development, and exchanges of national experience. – UN Global Mechanism on ICT security begins translating cyber norms into practice | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The UN’s permanent cyber mechanism continued its substantive discussions by identifying shared priorities for international cooperation, with member states highlighting ransomware, AI, critical infrastructure protection, and capacity development as areas requiring practical action. During the third plenary of the first substantive session of the Global Mechanism on Developments in the Field of ICTs in the Context of International Security, delegations repeatedly stressed that discussions should move beyond mere description of cyber threats to developing practical tools to help states prevent, detect, and respond to them. The discussion reinforced a trend already visible during earlier meetings, that despite differing national perspectives on specific cyber incidents, broad agreement is emerging on the issues likely to shape the mechanism’s future work. – UN Global Mechanism on ICT security shifts towards practical cybersecurity cooperation | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) UNESCO has signed agreements with two Chinese research institutions to strengthen climate monitoring, marine research and scientific capacity in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The agreements, signed on 17 July, bring together the International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals (CBAS) and the Second Institute of Oceanography (SIO) to expand access to satellite data, marine science expertise and technical support for vulnerable island states. UNESCO said many island states face severe climate and environmental pressures but lack the research infrastructure, environmental data and technical capacity needed to respond effectively. The partnerships aim to address those gaps by providing training, scientific tools, knowledge exchange and support for collecting and using environmental data. – UNESCO partners with China on climate monitoring for island states | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties) has published research arguing that general-purpose AI systems should not be relied upon for personalised voting advice, after assessing ChatGPT and Gemini during Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary election campaign. According to Liberties, the research found that the AI systems frequently failed to match users with the appropriate political party, produced inconsistent responses to identical prompts and often continued offering political guidance despite initially stating that they could not provide voting recommendations. The researchers also found that the systems did not explain a clear methodology for political matching or produce reproducible results. – Liberties research warns against relying on AI for election guidance | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The European Commission has published guidance explaining how providers and deployers should comply with new AI transparency requirements under the EU AI Act, ahead of obligations taking effect on 2 August 2026. The rules are intended to help people recognise when they are interacting with an AI system or viewing content generated or manipulated by AI. According to the European Commission, greater transparency should reduce the risks of deception and manipulation. Providers must ensure that interactive AI systems, including chatbots, inform users that they are communicating with AI. They must also attach machine-readable markings to synthetic or AI-manipulated content so it can be detected. – European Commission publishes AI Act guidance on transparency labels | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) India’s Ministry of Finance has outlined a series of measures to strengthen the country’s fintech ecosystem, combining financial regulation, cybersecurity, digital payments oversight and consumer protection to support innovation while managing emerging risks. According to the ministry, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has introduced a framework for Self-Regulatory Organisations in the fintech sector to promote ethical conduct, market integrity, transparency and accountability. The RBI has also implemented Digital Payment Security Controls for banks and expanded its Regulatory Sandbox to enable the testing of innovative financial products and services in a controlled environment. – India outlines coordinated strategy to strengthen fintech governance | Digital Watch Observatory
(Zachary Basu – Axios) Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believes America has nothing to fear from China’s open-source AI models — and everything to fear from the growing campaign to ban them. “These Chinese models are excellent,” Huang told Axios’ Mike Allen on Tuesday in an exclusive interview. “Open-source models that are excellent should be used”. The world’s top AI chipmaker says American companies should “absolutely” be allowed to use Chinese models — a direct challenge to Trump officials and the U.S. labs lobbying Washington to shut them out. Among them are Nvidia’s own customers, OpenAI and Anthropic, which have accused Chinese rivals of siphoning capabilities from their models and warned that Beijing’s open-source surge threatens America’s AI lead. Huang rejected the idea that OpenAI and Anthropic should be afraid of open models, arguing they expand the market by giving more people a first taste of AI, while many users will still pay for the convenience, reliability and stronger performance of closed services. “There’s no scenario where China runs U.S. companies off the road,” Huang told us. “Zero possibility”. Huang sat down with Axios in Fort Worth, Texas, at the opening of a new phase of an advanced manufacturing plant where Taiwan-based Wistron makes AI infrastructure for Nvidia, showing the U.S. is capable of some of the world’s most sophisticated manufacturing. The release of Kimi K3 by Beijing-based Moonshot AI has triggered the most intense bout of AI panic since DeepSeek rattled financial markets in January 2025. – Exclusive: Nvidia’s Jensen Huang defends Chinese AI amid Kimi panic
(DigWatch) The OECD has warned that the growing use of AI for financial advice could expose consumers to misleading information, biased recommendations and privacy risks, even as it makes financial guidance more accessible. More than one-third of people across OECD countries used AI tools in 2025. Consumers are increasingly turning to AI for budgeting, debt management, investing, retirement planning and understanding financial products, with some also using it to ask sensitive financial questions they might hesitate to raise with a human adviser. The OECD said AI can simplify complex financial documents, personalise financial education and help consumers compare products. However, AI systems may hallucinate, reproduce biases or generate commercially influenced recommendations without users fully recognising those limitations. – OECD warns of risks from growing use of AI financial advice | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) Australia will retain its existing AI copyright rules, rejecting calls for a text and data mining exemption as the government seeks to attract AI investment without weakening protections for creators. Industry and Innovation Minister Tim Ayres said existing copyright protections would remain in place while the government works towards a framework that provides greater certainty for both technology companies and rights holders. He said attracting AI investment should not come at the expense of creators’ rights. – Australia holds firm on AI copyright rules | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) Spain’s Observatory on Racism and Xenophobia (OBERAXE) detected more than 40,800 pieces of online hate speech and discriminatory content in June 2026, according to its latest social media monitoring bulletin. Using data collected through Spain’s FARO monitoring system, the analysis found that public insecurity remained the main driver of discriminatory narratives, accounting for 69% of detected content. Sport accounted for a further 16%, with racist and Islamophobic abuse increasing during the FIFA World Cup, including attacks targeting Spanish footballer Lamine Yamal. The report found that 89% of monitored messages contained explicitly aggressive language, while nearly one-third included images, videos, memes or coded language that can facilitate the spread of hateful content and make automated detection more difficult. – Spain reports more than 40,000 online hate posts in June | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) China and Thailand have launched a joint laboratory dedicated to applying AI to meteorological disaster forecasting and early warning, aiming to strengthen climate resilience and support cross-border infrastructure and economic cooperation. Announced during a meteorological sub-forum of the 2026 World AI Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance in Shanghai, the initiative will support disaster forecasting while providing meteorological services for cross-border projects in sectors including energy, agriculture and infrastructure. Described as the world’s first bilateral laboratory dedicated to AI applications in meteorology, it will develop intelligent early warning technologies for hazards including typhoons, heavy rainfall, heatwaves and droughts. The collaboration builds on the China Meteorological Administration’s MAZU intelligent early warning system. – China and Thailand launch AI weather forecasting laboratory | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) has published a compendium of good practices to help governments integrate gender perspectives into cybersecurity policies and strengthen the implementation of responsible state behaviour in cyberspace. Drawing on a series of multistakeholder workshops held with the Stimson Center in 2025, the report brings together existing initiatives and practical examples from governments and other stakeholders. It also identifies lessons learned and recommendations for incorporating gender considerations into national ICT architectures and implementing the UN Framework for Responsible State Behaviour in Cyberspace. – UNIDIR publishes guidance on gender-responsive cybersecurity | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The UN’s new permanent mechanism on international cybersecurity shifted from organisational discussions to substantive exchanges on the evolving cyber threat landscape, with member states identifying ransomware, attacks on critical infrastructure, and the malicious use of AI among the most pressing challenges requiring international cooperation. Meeting during the first substantive plenary session of the Global Mechanism on Developments in the Field of ICTs in the Context of International Security, delegates also continued discussions on the organisation of the mechanism’s Dedicated Thematic Groups (DTGs), which are expected to play a central role in translating years of normative work into practical cooperation. While delegations expressed different views on some procedural aspects of the DTGs, there was broad agreement that the groups should focus on practical, action-oriented work and avoid duplicating discussions already taking place during the annual plenary sessions. – UN Global Mechanism on ICT security identifies ransomware and AI among key global cyber threats | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The United Nations’ new permanent mechanism on international cybersecurity has begun its substantive work, opening a new phase of multilateral discussions on responsible state behaviour in cyberspace. The first substantive session of the Global Mechanism on Developments in the Field of ICTs in the Context of International Security opened on 20 July at UN Headquarters in New York under the chairmanship of Ambassador Egriselda López of El Salvador. The meeting marked the first time member states had convened within a standing UN framework dedicated to ICT security and responsible state behaviour. – UN Global Mechanism on cybersecurity begins work with focus on participation and consensus | Digital Watch Observatory
ANALYSES FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS
Caspian Sea
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Similar to the Aral Sea before it, the Caspian Sea is dying and at an ever more rapid rate, shrinking in size and depth, leaving ports far from former coastlines, and rendering sea lanes incapable of handling larger vessels or supporting offshore wells and pipelines. The five littoral states are being hit the hardest, but other countries that use or hope to use the Caspian are also being negatively affected. As a result, the impact of the Caspian’s decline is likely to be broader and unfold more quickly than that of the Aral. Some of the reasons for this decline lie beyond human control. Even those steps that could slow the Caspian’s death are currently unlikely to be taken, as there is little willingness among the littoral states—let alone outside powers—to come together and cooperate. – Death of Caspian Sea Affecting More Than Just Littoral Countries – Jamestown
China
(Jonah Reisboard – The Jamestown Foundation) The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), sanctioned by the United States since 2020, is making overt appeals for international investment. This is likely a result of positive incentives and economic opportunities rather than a response to external sanctions. The ease with which the XPCC can identify foreign patrons and the candor of its calls for international investment suggest that the efficacy of U.S. sanctions is limited. Outreach, platformed by trade expos and elevated by the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, appears to have achieved both political and financial successes, with foreign politicians giving speeches at these events and investment deals inked since 2025 reportedly totaling over $1.5 billion. – Xinjiang Dealmaking Overcomes Sanctions Deterrent – Jamestown
India – UK
(Viraj Solanki – IISS) The entry into force of the landmark India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on 15 July 2026, represents a significant moment for the India-UK economic and trade relationship, and the wider India-UK bilateral relationship. The India-UK CETA is India’s first comprehensive trade agreement with a major Western country. The FTA, formally known as a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), enters into force less than a year after it was signed on 24 July 2025. Negotiations for the agreement took over three years, starting in January 2022. It is one of eight trade deals that India has signed since 2021, and the sixth FTA that has entered into force since 2021 – following deals with Mauritius, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a limited deal with Australia, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) – consisting of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, and Oman. – The Importance of the India-UK Free Trade Agreement
Libya – US
(Tim Eaton – Chatham House) In recent weeks, Massad Boulos – President Trump’s senior adviser on Arab and African affairs – has stepped up efforts to break through Libya’s political deadlock. The country is split between two rival administrations: the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli – controlled by the Dabaiba family – and the Benghazi-based Government of National Stability (GNS), aligned with Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forced (LAAF). The US plan is to bring the Haftars and the Dabaibas together with other key constituencies and form a unified government. In June, LAAF deputy commander Saddam Haftar travelled to Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as Boulos seeks the Haftar family’s agreement on power-sharing. The Dabaiba family did not travel to Washington but Boulos still hopes to convince them to support the deal. For the deal’s opponents – and there are many – it looks like the return of family rule and a way to legitimize the two rival families. It also appears to be more of the same for ordinary Libyans as the deal focuses on power-sharing between elites rather than how the state can deliver for its citizens. – Why US plans for power-sharing in Libya will not work | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia
(Vadim Shtepa – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure have severely damaged fuel production, with gasoline production reportedly at 65 percent of average summer consumption. The resulting shortages have caused hours-long gas lines, station closures, and at least two reported deaths. The fuel crisis threatens Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economic legitimacy by increasing prices, damaging the agricultural sector, creating logistics issues and shortages of goods, and raising general concerns about the sustainability of Russia’s war economy. Russia’s federal system limits avenues for public protest regarding this crisis, as regional governors are effectively appointed by the Kremlin and opposition figures are excluded from elections. With 11 governors and 39 regional parliaments up for election in September, genuine political competition is near impossible. – Russian Fuel Crisis Driving Discontent – Jamestown
Russia – Armenia
(Vali Kaleji – The Jamestown Foundation) Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Russia for the first time since winning Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections on July 6. High-level Russian officials, however, have not recognized Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s parliamentary election victory while criticizing Armenia’s elections. Yerevan’s continued pursuit of peace with Baku, normalization with Türkiye, and closer ties with the European Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the United States could erode Russia’s remaining military, political, and economic leverage in the region. Moscow is likely to rely on controlled political, media, and economic pressure—including energy leverage and support for opposition forces—rather than broad sanctions on Armenia, seeking to preserve influence while discouraging Armenia’s further integration with the West. – Russia Uses Controlled Pressure on Armenia Following Elections – Jamestown
US – Brazil – China
(James Story and Ricardo Zúniga – Atlantic Council) US tariffs, sanctions, and terrorism designations are pushing Brazil economically and strategically away from Washington. Compliance risks from the US terrorism designations may encourage some Brazilian firms to look for Chinese alternatives. Increasingly strained relations are undermining opportunities for US-Brazil cooperation, including on critical mineral supply chains. – Washington is pushing Brazil toward China – Atlantic Council
US – China – South Korea
(Lami Kim, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau – IISS) When presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in Beijing on 13–15 May 2026, media attention focused on whether the summit would ease restrictions on critical raw-material trade flows caught up in the broader United States–China trade war. Since August 2023, Beijing has imposed increasingly extensive and stringent export controls on critical minerals, with wide-ranging implications not only for civilian industry but also for defence manufacturing. The White House readout of the summit stated that ‘China will address US concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals’, but there was little detail on concrete actions and no comparable commitment appeared in China’s own summary. Instead, on 15 June 2026, China’s State Council Decree No. 839 implemented the Mineral Resources Law, authorising ‘countermeasures’ against ‘discriminatory’ foreign restrictions. Other states have become collateral damage in US–China competition, including South Korea. Its defence industry faces growing risks from potential supply disruptions and price surges in critical minerals. Although Seoul is taking steps to reduce its reliance on Chinese supplies and enhance international cooperation for supply-chain resilience, these measures will take time to bear fruit. – Collateral damage of US–China competition: South Korea’s defence industry
War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi – Chatham House) Nearly five months after the United States and Israel launched their military campaign against Iran, it is becoming increasingly difficult to escape one conclusion: the central objectives that underpinned Washington’s decision to go war have not materialized. Wars should ultimately be judged not by the number of targets destroyed or sorties flown, but by whether they achieve their political objectives. By that measure, the campaign against Iran deserves a sober reassessment. The expectation that military pressure would trigger regime collapse, force Tehran into political capitulation, or fundamentally degrade its strategic capabilities has, so far, not been borne out. At best, those expectations were overly optimistic. At worst, they reflected wishful thinking masquerading as strategy. First, regime change has not happened – and there is little evidence to suggest the war will bring it about anytime soon. Iran undoubtedly faces deep domestic dissatisfaction. Years of sanctions, inflation, corruption and political repression have generated repeated waves of unrest, culminating in the nationwide protests of late 2025 and early 2026, which were brutally suppressed by the security apparatus. The discontent which led to those protests is likely still brewing. But history repeatedly demonstrates that authoritarian regimes often prove far more resilient under external attack than anticipated. Foreign intervention often allows regimes to recast themselves as defenders of national sovereignty – blunting internal dissent in the process. Opposition movements can be reluctant to mobilize while the country is under attack. That appears to be precisely what has happened in Iran. Rather than imploding, the Islamic Republic has weathered what many in the US and Israel believed would become an existential crisis. Political fractures remain, and the economy continues to deteriorate: the rial touched record lows at the weekend. But the state retains the institutional cohesion, security capacity and elite discipline necessary to survive. The war may even have strengthened some of the very institutions it was intended to weaken. Second, the assumption that Iran’s military capability has been decisively degraded is difficult to sustain. Throughout the campaign, President Donald Trump repeatedly declared that Iran’s missile force had been ‘obliterated’ and that much of its launch infrastructure had been destroyed. Israeli officials similarly highlighted the destruction of launchers, production facilities and command-and-control nodes. Yet developments over the past five months suggest those assessments were, at minimum, premature. Iran has demonstrated a sustained ability to launch ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones across multiple theatres, from the Strait of Hormuz to countries hosting US military bases – including recent strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq and Jordan. Whether acting directly or through its regional partners, Tehran has maintained a tempo of operations inconsistent with claims that its arsenal has been nearly exhausted. There is no reliable public estimate of Iran’s remaining missile stockpiles or production capacity. Definitive claims about its military depletion are difficult to sustain. – The wishful thinking behind the war with Iran | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Elliott Abrams – Council on Foreign Relations) The conflict between the United States and Iran has illuminated a factor in U.S. policy that received too little attention until this year: the U.S. basing pattern in the Middle East. U.S. bases in the region are now the targets of Iranian attacks, leading to the deaths of at least seventeen U.S. service members, injuries to roughly five hundred others, and billions of dollars in equipment losses. This is a geography problem. Simply put, the United States has bases all over the Persian Gulf that are too close to Iran. The largest U.S. base in the Middle East is the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, where roughly ten thousand U.S. troops worked prior to the current war. It is also the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and the location of the Combined Air Operations Center that controls all U.S. air activity in the entire Middle East. The headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and U.S. Naval Forces Central Command are in Bahrain. There are significant U.S. bases as well in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, and a U.S. presence in Oman and Saudi Arabia. All are within easy striking distance of Iran. – To Base or Not to Base: The Iran War Exposes Flaws of U.S. Basing in the Middle East | Council on Foreign Relations
