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GLOBAL NEWS
Europe – China
(East Asia Forum) Europe’s growing concern over Chinese import competition has fuelled calls for stronger protectionist measures, but many of the continent’s current challenges also reflect long-standing domestic policy failures such as delayed industrial adjustment and reliance on cheap Russian energy. While the European Union seeks to shield strategic industries from Chinese competition, the expanding use of industrial policy risks becoming entrenched and further weakening the rules-based trading system. Rather than relying primarily on tariff quotas and protectionism, Europe should better use its diplomatic influence to lead efforts to modernise WTO rules governing industrial subsidies and restore confidence in multilateral trade. – Can the EU escape its defensive crouch in competition with China? | East Asia Forum
Haiti
(UN News) For millions of Haitians, daily life has become a struggle to stay safe, find enough food and simply move around their own neighbourhood. Powerful armed gangs control large parts of the capital, Port-au-Prince, and continue expanding into other parts of the country. Families are fleeing their homes in record numbers, schools and health centres have closed, and humanitarian agencies are struggling to meet soaring needs as funding runs dangerously low. Yet amid the crisis there are also signs of progress. Haitian authorities are pressing ahead with long-delayed plans to restore democratic government through elections, security forces have begun pushing gangs out of some strategic areas, and new international support is arriving to help tackle the violence. – Haiti: Signs of hope despite gang violence and political uncertainty | UN News
Russia – Ukraine
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) A Russian missile strike on a ship carrying corn near Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa killed 10 people, Ukrainian officials said on Monday, in the deadliest attack in a weeks-long flare-up of violence in the Black Sea. Russia hit the Golden Leo – a Guinea-Bissau-flagged ship manned by a crew from India and Syria – with three cruise missiles, causing a fire on Sunday, Ukraine’s navy wrote on the Telegram messaging app. – Russian attack on corn ship off Ukraine’s Odesa kills 10
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) Russia on Monday accused Ukraine of killing five civilians, including a minor, in a drone attack on a bus in Russia’s Belgorod region and said three other civilians were in hospital in a critical condition. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine. Alexander Shuvayev, the governor of the Belgorod region, said in a statement on Telegram that 23 civilians had been injured in the attack in total. – Russia accuses Ukraine of killing five civilians in drone strike on bus in border region
Sudan
(Nimi Princewill – CNN) “You cannot hide from a drone strike,” says Elsadig. For the 27-year-old, that is the terrifying reality of life in Sudan’s besieged city of El-Obeid, where even the simplest routines carry the threat of sudden death. For much of Sudan’s civil war, which began more than three years ago, civilians feared the fighting on the ground. In El-Obeid, a strategic trade and aid hub that is home to more than half a million people, many now fear what comes from the sky. In late June, Elsadig was sitting at a water truck station when a drone strike hit the area, severing his left leg. Nearby, Ahmado, a 42-year-old sewage truck driver, was at work when the same attack struck a group of water trucks. His 9-year-old son, who had come to meet him after school, was killed, along with two of his colleagues. “My day had started like any other day. There were drones flying over our heads, but I never imagined that my child or I would become a target,” Ahmado told CNN. His family searched for hours before finding the boy’s body inside the burned-out truck after the fire had died down. – ‘You cannot hide from a drone strike’: The terror falling from the sky in Sudan | CNN
US
(Maria Curi – Axios) A senior Trump administration official and key adviser are slamming OpenAI head of strategic futures Dean Ball’s views on regulation, casting a shadow on the future of the company’s relationship with the government. The criticism targets a former White House architect of the administration’s AI Action Plan who now works at OpenAI, potentially complicating the company’s relationship with the Trump administration. The Trump administration is grappling with how to balance competition and cybersecurity concerns as increasingly capable Chinese AI models come onto the scene. – OpenAI’s Dean Ball targeted by top Pentagon official
(Alex Thompson – Axios) Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s message on the campaign trail increasingly echoes Barack Obama’s early rhetoric during his 2008 campaign for president. Ocasio-Cortez is broadening her pitch beyond revolutionary democratic socialism to something closer to Obama’s “Change You Can Believe In” ahead of a potential 2028 run for the White House. Former senior Obama adviser David Axelrod also hears the parallels, telling Axios: “Folks forget how much the Obama campaign in 2008 was an insurgency against the broken politics of those times. So AOC’s words, while her own, are familiar in spirit”. Campaigning in Michigan this weekend for progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, Ocasio-Cortez argued for liberal policies while making a more universal case against politics-as-usual. – AOC echoes Obama’s 2008 campaign message
(Andrew Pantazi – Axios) The Justice Department is asking a never-before-used federal court to remove an unnamed noncitizen, the first use of a 30-year-old process that could give President Trump a new tool for his deportation agenda. If the Justice Department wins, it could remove people it links to terrorism while keeping much of its evidence secret. A loss could show why this court sat idle for 30 years: The law may demand more than the government wants to provide. The DOJ filed the first application in the Alien Terrorist Removal Court’s history last Wednesday. – Trump DOJ files first Alien Terrorist Removal Court case
US – Cuba
(AFP/Al Arabiya) The United States on Monday accused Cuba of infiltrating the highest levels of government in Washington, as President Donald Trump intensifies his campaign to force an end to communist rule of the island. A US State Department report alleged that Cuba’s decades-long espionage campaign was “one of the most durable and damaging foreign intelligence penetrations in American history.” – Cuba has infiltrated highest levels of US government: State Department
US – EU – Free Speech – Tech Regulation
(Eliza Gkritsi – Politico) The Trump administration will use the upcoming U.N. General Assembly to push a global “freedom of expression” declaration that European lawmakers say is a thinly veiled attack on EU tech regulation. POLITICO has obtained a draft of the joint declaration that the U.S. has begun circulating among countries in the hope that it will be signed by heads of government at an event on the sidelines of the annual United Nations meeting in September. The version of the document seen by POLITICO denounces “new laws” and “regulatory frameworks” that it says endanger free speech around the globe in “historically democratic countries.” – Trump administration will push ‘free speech’ declaration at UN that takes aim at European tech regulation – POLITICO
US – Israel
(Andrew Solender – Axios) Last week’s dramatic showdown over cutting U.S. aid to Israel offered a glimpse into just how profoundly progressive anger is reshaping Democratic politics. It’s not just that the left is winning seats — they’re ousting incumbents and instilling panic among House Democrats, who fear they may be next if they don’t take a more hostile posture toward Israel. “Our primary victories this cycle defeating AIPAC-backed candidates … is forcing the Democratic caucus to finally heed the calls of their voters,” said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats. It’s a reality the pro-Israel center sees as well. “This is no longer about substance,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) tells Axios, “It’s about the raw fear of pissing off the far left”. On Wednesday, 103 House Democrats voted in favor of an amendment to a State Department funding bill that would have prohibited any of the money from going to Israel. – Inside House Democrats’ fear-driven turn against Israel
War in Iran – Middle East – Gulf
(AFP/Al Arabiya) A deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground Monday, as the Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, Washington said. – Lebanon army begins taking over southern ‘pilot zones’: US
(AFP/Al Arabiya) The United States expanded the scope of its strikes on Iran on Monday, targeting provinces around the country including a city hosting a nuclear power plant, as the Islamic Republic kept up its attacks in the region. The Middle East war resumed after a weeks-long lull prompted by an agreement signed in June, and oil prices surged to a one-month high as the foes battled to control the vital Strait of Hormuz. As its truce with the US collapsed, Tehran reimposed its blockade of the waterway through which a fifth of world oil supplies transited prior to the war, while Washington hit back by again blockading Iran’s ports. – US widens strikes in Iran, hits city home to nuclear plant
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) A vessel operated by Greek shipping firm Dynacom caught fire after it was struck by an unknown projectile 8 nautical miles northwest of Oman’s Kumzar overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security officials said on Monday. It is the latest in a string of attacks on oil and gas tankers since the United States and Iran escalated strikes across the Middle East on July 7 over control of the key conduit for a fifth of global oil supplies before their war. – Dynacom vessel catches fire near Oman after projectile hit
(AFP/Al Arabiya) US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Washington on Sunday, praising the country for its “move towards peace” after the latest round of Lebanon-Israel talks. It was the first trip to the US capital by a Lebanese head of state since Michel Sleiman was received by Barack Obama in 2009. Aoun and Rubio held talks at the State Department, and Lebanese officials said Aoun is due to meet with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday. – Rubio hails Lebanon for peace efforts after meeting president
(Stephen Collinson – CNN) More US combat deaths and a widening reescalation of the Iran war are putting a new spin on a long unanswered question: What is President Donald Trump’s endgame and how will he deliver it? From its initial shots, this war has been under-explained by the administration. The return to something like full-scale aerial war after a ninth consecutive night of US air raids is no exception. The president seems to be bombing again because the personal, political and economic costs of Iran’s major win so far — its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz — are impossible for him to accept. But he has yet to tell Americans why he believes this tactic may be more successful than it was before. Meanwhile, the sharply increased tempo of US bombing and Iran’s broadened retaliation — the attack that killed two US service members and left one missing last week was in Jordan — risks pulling the entire region back into the conflagration. Jordan, a US ally that lies east of Israel and west of Iraq, is more distant to Iran than US targets in the Gulf states. But Tehran’s success in hitting US troops in the country shows that it retains lethal capacities despite weeks of American attacks. On Sunday, Iran accused the US of attacking an under-construction nuclear power plant and warned of an appropriate response. Israel said it was ready to immediately resume combat if attacked. The Iran war is not yet the kind of “forever war” in the Middle East that the president repeatedly swore off fighting. But it is nowhere near a finite war either. – New US escalation in Iran makes Trump’s endgame vacuum more urgent | CNN Politics
(Tim Lister – CNN) Over the past week, the conflict between the United States and Iran has gone from a simmering tit-for-tat to something that much more resembles all-out war. US President Donald Trump last week threatened to broaden the war unless Iran stops attacking ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In recent days, the US has expanded its targets beyond Iranian coastal sites housing radar and drone facilities to include roads, tunnels, railways, port infrastructure and, according to Iranian media, a desalination plant. Iran has, in turn, expanded its target list across seven countries in the region, and official media outlets have suggested that major ports in Gulf Arab states may soon be added. Kuwait has borne the brunt of Iranian strikes, with a desalination plant and oil refinery damaged. Jordan too has seen regular barrages. The conflict is at an inflection point. It might give way to yet another round of mediation and negotiation. But to most analysts, that seems unlikely. Neither side seems in the mood to talk; both have said that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed in June after weeks of tortuous negotiation is no longer in effect. After the deaths Friday of two US service members in Jordan amid a barrage of Iranian missile strikes, the “coming days (are) among the most dangerous in the war,” said Ian Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk analysis firm. – The renewed US-Iran conflict is escalating and threatening to spin out of control | CNN
(Al Arabiya) US forces hit Iran for a ninth consecutive day on Monday as concerns grew over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran said two oil tankers had exploded and been immobilized. In a statement, US Central Command said it had begun “a new wave of strikes” aimed at “degrading” Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels in the strait’s vital shipping lanes. It later said that “CENTCOM assets targeted Iranian military command centers, air defense and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks to further diminish Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz.” – US launches new strikes on Iran, Tehran says two oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz exploded
(AFP/Al Arabiya) US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Sunday that Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in the ongoing Middle East conflict, adding that other countries needed to step up pressure to protect global shipping. “It’s clear that Iran, at least some people in Iran, want to control the straits and hold that as leverage against the world,” Rubio told reporters ahead of traveling to the Philippines for a meeting of foreign ministers with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). – Rubio says Iran using Strait of Hormuz as leverage
(Barak Ravid, Rebecca Falconer – Axios) The U.S. military launched fresh strikes against Iran on Sunday evening, after announcing the death of one American service member and the recovery of another’s remains following an Iranian missile strike in Jordan. The deaths underscore the growing toll of the U.S.-Iran conflict as both countries continue military attacks and the risk of further escalation rises. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces targeted Iranian military command centers, air defense and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks in a three-hour operation that ended at 10pm ET. – US strikes Iran again after American troop deaths
(Ben German – Axios) Oil prices jumped above $90 per barrel Sunday in the first major trading since the deaths of three U.S. service members and escalating Middle East hostilities. Higher oil prices could quickly translate into more expensive gasoline for consumers and diesel for freight carriers while increasing inflation risks worldwide. Brent crude’s move above $90 a barrel — its first since mid-June — builds on last week’s gains after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deteriorated further, reducing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following a brief rebound. – Oil tops $90 as Middle East fighting escalates
Tech World, Cybersecurity and Surveillance
(Maria Curi – Axios) The Trump administration is showing signs it could ban cutting-edge Chinese AI models — a momentous move that could lock in dominance by OpenAI and Anthropic. Parts of the administration have tried to implement de facto bans on foreign open-source models before, knowledgeable sources tell Axios. Last week’s rise of Chinese model Kimi is reigniting those efforts. Pro-competition voices fear the implications. U.S. companies are increasingly using open-source models from China because they’re cheaper and, as seen by the advent of Kimi, just about as good as the domestic technology. The Commerce Department last year considered adding multiple Chinese AI labs to its “Entity List,” which would effectively cut off U.S. access without a license, a source close to the administration told Axios. – The secret Trump administration battle to fight Chinese AI
(Adriel Bettelheim – Axios) Artificial intelligence is dramatically speeding up drug development — and a proprietary survey shows how it’s priming a bigger automation push that’s changing the trajectory of early stage pharma research. The TD Cowen survey of 80 biopharma leaders and insiders finds AI is compressing drug developers’ preclinical costs and timelines by as much as 70%. That’s fueling demand for cutting-edge software, sequencing tools and computer models that will help churn out more experimental treatments in the next five years. AI can’t replace scientific intuition. But the way it can streamline the grueling R&D before human testing begins is making computer screens as important a feature of drug design as traditional laboratories. – How AI is supercharging drug development
(DigWatch) Singapore’s Personal Data Protection Commission (PDPC) has issued guidance explaining how organisations should handle personal data throughout the development and deployment of generative AI systems. Published jointly with the Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA), the guidance explains how organisations should comply with the Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA) during the development, deployment and post-deployment use of generative AI. Developers may rely on the PDPA’s exception for publicly available information when collecting personal data from openly accessible websites. However, information behind paywalls, registration requirements or other digital barriers may not qualify, meaning organisations may need consent or another legal basis for processing. – Singapore issues personal data guidance for generative AI | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) South Korea and Saudi Arabia have agreed to deepen cooperation on startups, AI and digital transformation following talks in Seoul between South Korean Vice Minister of the Ministry of SMEs and Startups (MSS) Roh Yong-Seok and Saudi Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah Alswaha. The discussions focused on expanding collaboration in AI, venture investment, digital transformation and innovative startups. A central topic was a proposed joint investment fund, currently under discussion between Korea Venture Investment and Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Valley Company, which would co-invest in deep-tech companies developing strategic technologies such as AI and semiconductors. – South Korea and Saudi Arabia deepen AI and startup partnership | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) The OECD has warned that ‘shadow AI’ is spreading across public administrations as civil servants adopt generative AI without formal approval, consistent oversight or clear operational rules. A review of official guidance from 14 countries found that while governments have widely adopted AI ethics principles, practical guidance for designing, monitoring, and evaluating generative AI experiments remains fragmented. The result is inconsistent practices, duplicated pilot projects and excessive risk aversion. The OECD argues that structured experimentation should bridge the gap between national AI strategies and day-to-day public administration. Governments should begin with controlled, low-risk applications before extending AI to sensitive services or decisions affecting citizens. – OECD warns of growing shadow AI in government | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) China has released an Action Plan on International Artificial Intelligence Ethics Governance during the 2026 World AI Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance in Shanghai, outlining its vision for international AI governance and ethical cooperation. Issued under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and relevant partners, the plan seeks to strengthen international cooperation on AI ethics within the framework of the UN Pact for the Future and its Global Digital Compact. The action plan encourages countries to develop AI governance according to their national circumstances while promoting ethical oversight across the entire AI lifecycle. It advocates risk-based governance, agile regulation, stronger cooperation across AI supply chains and greater international policy coordination based on consultation, joint participation and shared benefits. – China releases international AI ethics governance action plan | Digital Watch Observatory
(DigWatch) Germany and France have agreed to deepen cooperation on AI, AI safety and digital sovereignty following the Franco-German Ministerial Council, reinforcing their joint role in shaping Europe’s technology agenda. The partnership centres on closer collaboration between France’s AI safety institute, INESIA, and Germany’s newly established AI Safety and Security Institute to strengthen the evaluation and secure deployment of advanced AI models. The two governments will coordinate AI safety research, institutional expertise and risk assessments while supporting implementation of the European AI Office’s work under the AI Act. They also reaffirmed their commitment to advancing AI safety cooperation through the EU, NATO and the United Nations, positioning it as a shared strategic priority. – Germany and France strengthen AI safety and digital sovereignty cooperation | Digital Watch Observatory
(Max Griera – Politico) As MEPs and their assistants increasingly turn to artificial intelligence to draft speeches, parliamentary questions and even amendments, the European Parliament is seeking to bring that use under control with an officially sanctioned platform of its own. The internal platform, known as EPGenAI Hub, will give lawmakers and staff access to models from Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and France’s Mistral, offering what Parliament hopes will be a safer alternative to the public AI tools already being used for legislative work. The new platform is currently being tested and could begin rolling out as early as September, according to two people familiar with the plans, granted anonymity to discuss the internal strategy. The plans come as concern rises inside the institution over the spread of AI-generated parliamentary material. At a meeting earlier in July, several committee chairs voiced alarm that a growing number of MEPs and their assistants were using AI to draft amendments and support other legislative work, according to three people familiar with the discussion. – The European Parliament’s answer to its AI worries: More AI – POLITICO
(Kevin Poireault – Infosecurity Magazine) Following the sentencing of two young men for the 2024 Transport for London (TfL) hack, senior police officers have said the case makes a compelling argument for tougher legal powers in the UK, namely Cybercrime Risk Orders (CCROs). Owen Flowers, 19, and Thalha Jubair, 20, were sentenced to five and a half years in prison each for committing unauthorised acts against TfL under Section 3ZA the UK’s Computer Misuse Act (CMA) 1990. Both men are believed to be part of Scattered Spider, a cybercriminal group that has been linked to major cyber-attacks over the past few years, including the Marks & Spencer and Co-op incidents in 2025. – Police Chiefs Cite TfL Hack in Push for Cybercrime Risk Orders – Infosecurity Magazine
(Danny Palmer – Infosecurity Magazine) Ferrari is the most successful Formula 1 team of all time, with over 1100 race entries, 250 Grand Prix wins, 16 Constructor’s Championships and 15 Driver’s Championships. The prancing horse has been a fixture in Formula 1 since the first Grand Prix at Silverstone in 1950. Over 75 years on, the team continues to find success, as drivers Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have both reached the top step of the podium in iconic Ferrari red in the 2026 season. A lot has changed in the decades since that 1950 inaugural Grand Prix and motorsport is no longer just about the drivers and the machinery around them. In the modern age, technology, data and analytics are core aspects of Formula 1 and it’s vital that information is protected from cyber threats. The responsibility for ensuring Italy’s flagship Formula 1 team is prepared to defend against evolving cyber-attacks is Luca Pierro, Head of Enterprise Cybersecurity at Ferrari. In this conversation, which took place at Ferrari’s Maranello headquarters, Pierro detailed to Infosecurity how the team implements a cybersecurity strategy that ensures staff are protected from cyber threats while also operating at speed. Pierro also shared how Ferrari reacts to evolving cyber threats and what the biggest issues he’s thinking about right now are. – Ferrari Cybersecurity Head on Defending Formula 1’s Most Iconic Team – Infosecurity Magazine
(Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs) The Netherlands’ AIVD and MIVD, the civilian and military intelligence services, published a joint advisory on July 10 confirming that at least one Russian intelligence service is systematically compromising internet-connected IP cameras across the Netherlands, other EU and NATO member states, and Ukraine to collect military intelligence. The operation is ongoing. The advisory is based on intelligence gathered by both services and covers a campaign that has escalated since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The immediate military application in Ukraine is the most direct part of the finding. “The information obtained by the Russian state actor via digital espionage operations targeting IP cameras provides insight into relevant military data, such as EU and NATO military transport routes and weapon deliveries to Ukraine. The Russian state actor uses image recognition software to conduct targeted searches for military vehicles and the military cargo they are transporting. In some cases, the access to IP cameras gained by the Russian state actor in Ukraine is used to identify the locations of Ukrainian military personnel.” reads the advisory. “Intelligence reveals that this information is subsequently used to neutralise Ukrainian military personnel and military materiel in use by the Ukrainian armed forces. Furthermore, the Dutch services have determined that the Russian service is using the access to IP cameras to acquire relevant military intelligence in EU and NATO member states, including information that is not directly relevant to the war in Ukraine.” – Dutch Intelligence Warns Russia Uses Hacked IP Cameras for Military Espionage
(Pierluigi Paganini – Security Affairs) Hugging Face is one of the world’s leading open-source AI companies. It provides a platform where developers and organizations can build, share, and deploy machine learning and generative AI models. Hugging Face disclosed that an autonomous AI agent breached part of its production infrastructure last week. The company detected the intrusion, contained it, and found unauthorized access to a limited number of internal datasets and service credentials. The investigation is still ongoing, but there is no evidence the attackers modified public AI models, datasets, Spaces, or the company’s software supply chain. “We identified unauthorized access to a limited set of internal datasets and to several credentials used by our services. We are still completing our assessment of whether any partner or customer data was affected, and we will contact any affected parties directly as required.” states the security incident disclosure. “We have found no evidence of tampering with public, user-facing models, datasets, or Spaces, and our software supply chain (container images and published packages) was verified clean.” – AI Agents Turned Into Attackers: Hugging Face Reveals Autonomous Intrusion Campaign
ANALYSES FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS
Afghanistan
(Lynne O’Donnell – Lowy The Interpreter) Winning power in Afghanistan was the easy part. Holding it together is the Taliban’s real challenge. Since establishing their second regime, the Taliban has confounded one of the most common predictions about its future: that military victory would quickly give way to fragmentation. Rival power bases, competing personalities and regional interests have repeatedly surfaced, yet Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and his inner circle have so far contained those tensions while extending their authority. That matters well beyond Afghanistan. A Taliban leadership that succeeds in consolidating power nationwide will become far more consequential for governments and investors alike, potentially reshaping strategic calculations in Beijing, Islamabad, Tehran, Moscow and New Delhi. The Taliban is now attempting to establish centralised political control in regions where power has long rested with local strongmen and patronage networks without triggering the kind of internal conflict that has historically fractured Afghan politics. – The Taliban’s harder task to turn conquest into control | Lowy Institute
Australia
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Australia needs to talk less about critical-mineral supply chains and more about specific minerals. Generic discussions about supply-chain resilience have become a substitute for strategic thinking. They encourage governments to speak in broad concepts while avoiding harder questions about where vulnerabilities actually sit. Supply chains don’t fail in theory but rather in specific minerals, facilities, ports and processing plants. Antimony demonstrates why that distinction matters. Many Australians have never heard of antimony. Defence planners, however, understand its importance. Antimony supports ammunition production, strengthens lead alloys, contributes to flame retardants and plays a role in a range of industrial and defence applications. A disruption to antimony supply would not trigger an oil shock. However, it would still have consequences across defence and industry. – Australia should narrow its critical-minerals focus – starting with antimony | The Strategist
Batan Islands – China – Philippines
(Vincent Kyle Parada – Lowy The Interpreter) “The Batan Islands belong to Beijing” – or so a group of Chinese maritime scholars are reported to have claimed at an academic symposium in Guangzhou on June 30. This is a bizarre position to take, as the islands nested between the Philippines and Taiwan have been legally administered as an official province of the Philippines (known as Batanes, its northernmost province)since 1909. They are also home to a significant population of Filipino citizens. Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. was quick to denounce the claims as “ludicrous” and “baseless”. However, a closer look at the geopolitical backdrop against which they were made reveals a potentially more calculated manoeuvre on the part of the Chinese government. The academic symposium followed an announcement on 28 May from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that they were launching formal negotiations to delimit their countries’ respective maritime boundaries. These boundaries are in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) but there are contested areas. The basis for Philippine claims in the area overlapping with Japan originates from its maritime entitlements over the Batanes Islands. – Why Chinese claims of sovereignty over the Batanes cannot be ignored | Lowy Institute
EU CBAM – ASEAN
(Melinda Martinus – Lowy The Interpreter) The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (EU CBAM) is reshaping global trade. Often described as a “carbon tariff”, the mechanism aims to prevent companies from relocating carbon-intensive production outside Europe to avoid paying for emissions under the EU’s carbon pricing system. Since January 2026, importers of products such as steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers and hydrogen are required to pay a carbon price on imports from countries that do not have an equivalent carbon pricing regime. Debate over the EU CBAM has largely centred on its effects on trade and climate policy. Critics and supporters alike have questioned whether it will undermine the competitiveness of exporting countries, reduce global emissions effectively, reshape global supply chains, or accelerate the formation of carbon clubs. Yet one question has received far less attention: what does the EU CBAM mean for jobs? This matters especially in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a region of more than 350 million workers whose economies are competitive and deeply embedded in global manufacturing and supply chains. – ASEAN can capture the EU’s “carbon tariff” jobs | Lowy Institute
Indo – Pacific
(Imran Khalid – East Asia Forum) Asia’s geopolitical landscape is being reshaped by resource fragility. The Mekong and Chao Phraya deltas are sinking rapidly, while upstream dams have disrupted natural river cycles and intensified downstream vulnerability. These pressures are transforming water into a source of strategic leverage — and traditional security frameworks focused on military power are insufficient for this environment. Australia and its partners should therefore treat transboundary water management, delta preservation and climate resilience as core security priorities. – The Indo-Pacific’s security runs through its rivers | East Asia Forum
Japan
(Shinji Kojima, Atsushi Yamagata – East Asia Forum) Japan’s Muslim community has grown rapidly to around 420,000 people, but intense opposition to a mosque construction in Fujisawa in 2025 illustrates how anti-Muslim sentiment is becoming more organised and politically emboldened, fuelled by social media misinformation and right-wing politicians seeking electoral advantage. Without a coherent national approach to immigration that equips local governments to manage diversity and counters hate speech effectively, Japan risks allowing local flashpoints to define its relationship with an increasingly permanent migrant population. – Japan’s anti-Muslim sentiment turns its sights on mosques | East Asia Forum
Japan – New Zealand – Australia
(Tadashi Iwami – East Asia Forum) Japan’s Mogami-class frigate offers New Zealand valuable interoperability with Australia as a replacement for its ageing ANZAC-class vessels, but a legal prerequisite remains. New Zealand is the only Five Eyes member without an Equipment and Technology Transfer Agreement with Japan, which Tokyo requires before transferring finished lethal defence products. With a frigate recommendation expected before the end of 2027 and a New Zealand election due in November 2026, signing an agreement would remove a source of legal and political uncertainty surrounding Wellington’s participation in an emerging trilateral Mogami ecosystem. – New Zealand’s naval future with Japan awaits a signature | East Asia Forum
Thailand
(Ladawan Khaikham – East Asia Forum) Bangkok’s incumbent governor Chadchart Sittipunt won his second term with a record vote share on the strength of his delivery record, with neither Prime Minister Anutin’s nationalist coalition nor the reformist People’s Party able to translate their national mandates into success in Thailand’s most closely watched local contest. The result suggests Bangkok voters grade candidates on demonstrated performance rather than party affiliation or ideology, posing questions about the durability of both Anutin’s patchwork conservative coalition and the People’s Party’s reformist momentum. – Bangkok voters reward performance over party politics | East Asia Forum
