Sources: Atlantic Council; Council on Foreign Relations; IISS; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center; The Washington Institute
Argentina
(Alexander K. Bollfrass, Annemiek Dols – IISS) From a discredited fusion experiment on a remote Patagonian island to becoming Latin America’s foremost exporter of nuclear technology, Argentina’s nuclear trajectory was always harder to categorise than its critics assumed. Its long resistance to the NPT and Treaty of Tlatelolco was rooted in questions of sovereignty and anti-discrimination, not a concealed weapons programme. This episode traces how Argentina’s nuclear nationalism, its uneasy relationship with the international non-proliferation regime, and its rapprochement with Brazil produced the ABACC: one of arms control’s most inventive bilateral solutions. – Better know a non-nuke: Argentina
China
(Filip Jirouš, Ralph Weber – The Jamestown Foundation) General Secretary Xi Jinping’s reforms to the nomenklatura system has built a selectocracy that is best understood as a realignment with Leninist party-building norms after experiments with more democratic bottom-up mechanisms under Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Such changes are intended to strengthen the Party as a whole, not just Xi’s own power. Notable Xi-era reforms, such as eliminating the use of straw polls for cadre selection, simply reverted changed made under Hu Jintao. Those initiatives, which allowed for limited lower-level political engagement, were seen as incompatible with the Party’s top-down governance system. As chair of the leading small group (LSG) for cadre selection, Xi can personally enforce Party loyalty and incorruptibility in the promotion process. His personal involvement also helps to counter factionalism and the emergence of alternative power structures, thus preserving the centrality and long-term survivability of the Party. A cadre selection LSG for the 21st National Party Congress is likely already established, populated by personnel from the Central Organization Department and the Central Secretariat, and will likely follow the procedures used for the last congress in 2022. – Xi’s Leninist Selectocracy has Cemented Party Dictatorship – Jamestown
China – Taiwan
(Yu-cheng Chen – The Jamestown Foundation) Beijing is expanding its “Kinmen model” of gray-zone maritime pressure to other Taiwan-controlled offshore islands and maritime positions. For over two years, it has used political or maritime triggers to challenge Taiwan-administered boundaries, deploy the China Coast Guard (CCG), and normalize its law-enforcement presence in waters under Taiwan’s effective control, but that Beijing claims as its own jurisdiction. Activity in June and July has involved a combination of CCG vessels, maritime safety ships, research vessels, rescue assets, and Sansha-linked public vessels. These vessels have operated across waters east of Taiwan, Pratas Island, and Taiping Island—a multi-axis pattern that suggests a broad campaign focused on Taiwan’s outlying islands.
Pratas Island, at the northern edge of the South China Sea, has become the clearest next testing ground, with CCG and Maritime Safety Administration presence rising from 25 activity days in 2024 to 60 in 2025. Pratas is closer to the operational area of the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command than other offshore islands. It is also strategically significant and politically symbolic as one of Taiwan’s most important outposts in the South China Sea, and would be more difficult for Taiwan to support in a crisis. – Maritime Pressure Expands to Pratas and Taiping – Jamestown
Cuba
(Jason Marczak, Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, and Ignacio Albe – Atlantic Council) Cuba is experiencing what may be its most dramatic economic collapse since the Castro regime first came to power. Recent data reveals that Cuba’s severe economic deterioration far predates the energy embargo and additional sanctions imposed in January. While Washington’s increased pressure has accelerated the regime’s reckoning, the Cuba economy has long been headed for economic catastrophe. – The collapse of Cuba’s state-run economy is years in the making – Atlantic Council
Germany
(Johannes R. Fischbach, Nick Childs – IISS) Germany has cancelled its troubled F126 Niedersachsen-class frigate programme following mounting delays and cost overruns. Instead of six large F126s, the German Navy will receive up to eight smaller vessels focused on anti-submarine warfare (ASW), already dubbed the F128. This represents a significant change of course for Germany’s naval plans, which are likely to be studied closely in a number of European capitals. – Germany changes tack with F126 frigate cancellation
Iran – Europe
(Michael Jacobson – The Washington Institute) With the US-Iranian ceasefire breaking down, and President Trump declaring the MOU “over,” there is major uncertainty about what’s next. But whenever the United States and Iranians do return to the negotiating table, there is one thing that is clear. It is highly unlikely that Iran will agree to any restrictions on support for its proxies and partners, including the Iraqi Shia militias, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas. This is hardly surprising, but still bodes poorly for future Middle East stability. It is also bad news for Europe, where Iran-linked actors have been active in plotting attacks, raising funds, and procuring weapons. European governments must step up and make their territory a more hostile operating environment. This would be essential in preventing these groups from rebuilding their financial, terrorist and weapons capabilities, which will undoubtedly be a high priority for Tehran. – A Ceasefire Won’t End Iran’s Terror War on Europe | The Washington Institute
Israel
(Miroslav M. Zafirov – Atlantic Council) Israel has adopted a buffer-zone strategy that emphasizes forward defense, strategic depth, and direct military control beyond its borders. In Lebanon and elsewhere, Israel is tying troop withdrawals to security conditions that neighboring governments lack the means to fulfill. While intended to enhance Israeli security, the buffer-zone approach risks creating long-term territorial disputes and reinforcing the narratives of armed groups such as Hezbollah. – Israel and the new reality of buffer zones – Atlantic Council
Myanmar
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) The war in Myanmar, driven by a 2021 coup, is now Asia’s deadliest conflict. ACLED, a conflict-monitoring group, counts more than 100,000 people killed since the military overthrew the democratically elected government in February 2021. The group calls it the most fragmented conflict anywhere—with over 1,200 armed factions—and considers Myanmar one of the most war-torn countries on earth. It was not always this way. While Myanmar often seemed to be in a time warp through decades of autocratic military rule, it began to change. In the decade since the country began opening up its political system in 2011, the economy grew by an average of about 6 percent a year, and poverty fell steeply—from 48.2 percent in 2005 to 24.8 percent by 2017, according to the World Bank. Hunger was in retreat too; by most measures the share of people facing serious food shortages had been declining for two decades. None of this made Myanmar rich. But a country that had spent half a century as one of Asia’s poorest was visibly getting better—and, however imperfectly, becoming a democracy. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won a free election in 2015 and another, in a landslide, in 2020. – How the Coup Turned Myanmar Into Asia’s Deadliest Conflict | Council on Foreign Relations
Russia
(Mamie Powers, Panorama – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is experiencing more fuel shortages as Ukraine focuses strikes on Russian oil refineries in Moscow and is able to reach targets nearly 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles) inside Russia. Officials in Russia are beginning discussions with other countries, including India, about importing oil and claim that the fuel shortages at gas stations are due to Ukrainian strikes, which have led to excessive demand and caused logistical problems. Russians are expressing a range of reactions to the fuel shortages. Many are frustrated with the long lines and rationing at gas stations, while others are relatively ambivalent about the issues as long as other aspects of their lives remain normal. – Russia’s Fuel Shortages Strike Russians at Home – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Thomas Graham – Council on Foreign Relations) President Donald Trump’s cordial July 8 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the margins of the NATO summit in Ankara has reinforced the prevailing Western narrative that the tide has turned in Ukraine’s favor in its war with Russia. Trump praised Ukraine’s recent success on the battlefield and suggested that its deep strikes into Russia’s heartland could persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin good-faith negotiations. He also answered one of Zelenskyy’s urgent requests by agreeing to license the production of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine. The meeting is the latest positive news for Ukraine in recent weeks. Ukraine has brought Russia’s advances on the battlefield to a halt. Its deep strikes against energy infrastructure in Russia have caused a gasoline shortage across the country and reduced Russian oil exports, which provide critical revenue for its war machine. A well-executed campaign of drone strikes is isolating Russian-annexed Crimea from the rest of Russia. The gasoline shortages are only one manifestation of mounting political and socio-economic troubles in Russia. The economy is on the edge of a recession, and a budget crisis is looming. Popular and elite discontent with the war is growing, and Putin’s popularity rating is steadily falling. Nevertheless, it is premature to say that the tide is turning in Ukraine’s favor. Ukraine’s recent diplomatic and battlefield successes have done little to alleviate the devastating impact of continued warfare. The country struggles with a deepening demographic crisis, growing economic havoc, and the mounting costs of reconstruction. Ukraine needs to end this conflict as soon as possible. – The Time Is Ripe for Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks, But Putin Could Escalate Conflict | Council on Foreign Relations
US – NATO
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) As Machiavelli wrote in The Prince, “Upon this a question arises: whether it be better to be loved than feared or feared than loved? It may be answered that one should wish to be both, but, because it is difficult to unite them in one person, it is much safer to be feared than loved, when, of the two, either must be dispensed with”. This complex dynamic of fear and love was on full display in Ankara, Turkey, where thirty-two NATO heads of state and key partners just gathered for the alliance’s thirty-sixth summit. After leaving the closed door leaders’ dialogue, President Donald Trump pronounced, “There was a lot of love in that room, a lot of unity.” Most NATO leaders had been biting their nails, worrying about whether there would be a blow up with Trump at the summit over their reluctance to support U.S. efforts against Iran. An expression of love was certainly not high in the prediction markets. – Trump, Ukraine, and the NATO Summit: A Love Story | Council on Foreign Relations
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Donald Trump arrived in Ankara with more to celebrate than any US president has had at a NATO Summit in years. His European allies were spending far more on defense, turning their historic commitments at last year’s Hague summit into real defense capabilities. Trump deserves considerable credit for that. His July 2025 decision to continue supplying Ukraine with weaponry, though paid for now by European allies, has contributed to the country’s war gains against Russia. During his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ankara, Trump praised the leader he had previously derided, calling Zelenskyy “ingenious” for his country’s deep strikes on Russia. Trump then followed this compliment by saying he would license Ukraine to produce the Patriot air defense missiles it so urgently needs, though he conceded he hadn’t discussed the matter yet with manufacturers Lockheed Martin and RTX Corporation. Despite all that, until Trump’s press conference at the end of the summit, NATO watchers were gnashing their teeth at statements the president made about old grievances instead of NATO’s growing achievements. Trump blasted allies—Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom, in particular—for not doing more to support him in Iran or spending sufficiently on their own defense. “We could remove all of our soldiers out of Europe,” Trump threatened calmly as he sat alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on Tuesday. He also revived long-dormant assertions that the United States should control Greenland, an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, something he didn’t repeat during his closed-door meeting with allies. While the US president departed Ankara on an upbeat note, calling the summit “tremendously successful” and praising NATO’s “great sense of unity,” some European allies still worry. The Pentagon is conducting a six-month force posture review that could weaken the Alliance before European countries are able to replace capabilities the United States might withdraw. – Trump should seize upon his NATO-Ukraine moment – Atlantic Council
War in Iran and Africa
(The Soufan Center) The costs of the war with Iran have been felt in every corner of the globe, but the impact on Africa has been underexplored, with some African nations bearing tremendous burdens, with energy shocks driving up gas and diesel prices, rising electricity costs, and widespread inflation. With fertilizer shipments from the Middle East to sub-Saharan Africa disrupted due to the war, the impact will be felt in terms of lower crop yields and accelerating food insecurity. The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region, extending throughout the Horn of Africa to Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and Djibouti, sits at the intersection of global energy flows, maritime security, and great power competition. Remittances to the African continent from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initially surged at the start of the war but have since plummeted, risking significant second-order repercussions for certain African countries. – How is the War in Iran Affecting African Nations? – The Soufan Center
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