Sources: Atlantic Council; Chatham House; The Jamestown Foundation; UN News
Artificial Intelligence
(UN News) Fresh scientific evidence and options for harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) were unveiled Wednesday following the launch of the first global, independent scientific assessment of opportunities, risks and impacts by a pioneering UN expert panel. “The science is here,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at the report launch. “We can no longer say we did not know. What we do with it is now up to all of us”. The more AI advances without shared rules, the less say governments and people will have in the outcome, the UN chief said, adding “my message to governments is simple: do not wait”. Aiming to build a shared understanding and evidence at this critical juncture, the Preliminary Report of the Independent International Scientific Panel on AI: Evidence-based assessment of opportunities, risks and impacts of AI was penned by the first global, fully independent scientific body dedicated to assessing its real impacts across economies and societies. – ‘The science is here’: UN chief welcomes first global AI assessment | UN News
Destinus – Ukraine – Europe
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) On May 18, Dutch defense company Destinus unveiled plans to begin production on the Ruta Block 3 mini-cruise missile, offering a 1,242-mile range to provide Europe and Ukraine with a cheaper, mass-produced long-range strike capability. Destinus—founded by the former head of Russia’s first private space company, Mikhail Kokorich—pivoted to defense after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has since supplied thousands of drones and Ruta Block 1 mini-cruise missiles to Ukraine and Europe. Kokorich, who renounced his Russian citizenship in January 2024, says Destinus is developing long-range strike programs across Europe and aims to produce missiles faster and more cheaply than existing systems. In April, Russia labeled Destinus a military target, underscoring the company’s growing role in strengthening Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities and Europe’s defense-industrial base. – Former Russian Space Entrepreneur Producing Long-Range Missiles for Ukraine – Jamestown
India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor
(Afaq Hussain and Maisoon H. Kafafy – Atlantic Council) An expanded India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, could replace roughly 60 percent of the container traffic that flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Building out connected networks with nodes in Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Syria could unlock upward of $330 billion in trade. This networked approach to the IMEC project hedges against the kind of disruption caused by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. – A network of corridors is the only reliable hedge against Middle East chokepoint disruptions – Atlantic Council
Israel – Palestine
(UN News) The continued expansion of areas under Israeli control in Gaza since October’s ceasefire agreement is placing civilians at greater risk and severely constraining humanitarian operations, the UN and humanitarian partners warned on Wednesday. The alert comes amid continued displacement and mounting humanitarian pressures across the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). In a statement, the combined Humanitarian Country Team in the OPT said the expansion of the area under Israeli control, together with movement restrictions, are limiting access for aid workers and reducing the space available for civilians already displaced by the conflict. – Expanding areas under Israeli control in Gaza increase risks to civilians, UN warns | UN News
Israel – US
(Ksenia Svetlova – Chatham House) The relationship between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has grown increasingly tense since the start of the Iran war and seems to have reached an all-time low amid Trump’s efforts to end hostilities in both Iran and Lebanon. His memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran was largely criticized in Israel. Netanyahu – who always bragged about his great relationship with Trump – was seen as responsible. Another MoU between Israel, the US and Lebanon followed last week. Although it looks more favourable to Israel, it has nevertheless been met with a great deal of suspicion in Israel where the majority supports military action against Hezbollah. Before last week’s deal, the US president had grown increasingly frustrated that Israel’s actions in Lebanon would jeopardize the ceasefire deal with Iran. Trump has confirmed reports he called Netanyahu ‘crazy’ and used an expletive during a tense phone call. A new book claims there was a similarly angry phone call just days before the public announcement of the ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza. These revelations paint a picture of two leaders who have always emphasized their close alliance and ‘beautiful friendship’ but no longer seem to be on the same page. But does this mean Trump is ready to translate his growing resentment towards Netanyahu into new policy? If so, how would it affect Israeli politics and the upcoming elections? – Netanyahu is caught between Trump and a hard place | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) The number of combat-ready strategic bombers in the Russian Aerospace Forces is steadily declining due to Western sanctions, inadequate maintenance, and successful Ukrainian strikes. Russia is forced to cannibalize existing aircraft to keep them operational or smuggle spare parts. As the number of operational aircraft decreases, the workload on the remaining aircraft increases, which raises the likelihood of malfunctions and accidents. A strict sanctions regime targeting Russia’s defense industry enterprises, along with constant monitoring of compliance with those sanctions, could hinder the development of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. – Russian Aviation Industry Facing Problems – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Peter Dickinson – Atlantic Council) The Kremlin-installed authorities in Russian-occupied Crimea declared a state of emergency last week amid energy blackouts and fuel shortages caused by Ukraine’s intensifying blockade of the Black Sea peninsula. The deteriorating situation in Crimea is creating major practical challenges for the Russian war effort in Ukraine. Crucially, it also poses a direct threat to the carefully crafted Kremlin mythology portraying Vladimir Putin as the great restorer of the Russian Empire. Ukraine’s strategic bombing campaign in and around Crimea has been unfolding since early 2026 and relies heavily on a new generation of strike drones capable of operating deep behind enemy lines. These mid-range drones have made it possible to target access routes in and out of the peninsula, along with high-value targets in Crimea itself. A key focus has been the so-called “land bridge” across occupied southern Ukraine that serves as a lifeline linking Crimea to the Russian Federation. This militarily unprecedented drone-led blockade has proved highly effective. The Crimean occupation authorities have been forced to impose restrictions on public transport, street lighting, and electricity supplies, while the sale of gasoline to civilians is now tightly controlled and was stopped altogether for a period in late June. Many residents have resorted to traveling across the Crimean Bridge to search for petrol in Russia’s Krasnodar and Rostov regions, but some report that fuel stations have refused service to Crimean vehicles due to local shortages. With gasoline largely unavailable and power cuts now a daily fact of life, reservations in Crimean tourist resorts reportedly plummeted by 79 percent in June. – Ukraine’s blockade of Crimea puts Putin’s greatest victory under threat – Atlantic Council
US
(Laurel Rapp – Chatham House) London is a fraught place from which to watch an American revolution. There is an amusing local story, that King George III spent many hours poring over military plans in a basement near Buckingham Palace, scheming how best to supress troublesome revolutionaries. Throughout America’s War of Independence, Great Britain’s leaders dumped blood and treasure into securing their rebellious colonies, intent on overcoming their scrappy but capable countrymen: revolutionaries who sought religious liberty and freedom to dissent. Revolutionaries who opposed unjust taxation and exploitative trade relations. Revolutionaries who rejected the status quo. King George’s basement plotting was for naught, and a new nation was born. Today, 250 years later, leaders in Britain – and across Europe – once again watch with trepidation as new political currents take root across the Atlantic. History doesn’t repeat itself, but in the US its echoes carry a similar spirit of revolt. This movement is not directed at an outside power, but rather at the current system’s ability to address Americans’ biggest worries: the availability and affordability of healthcare above all, followed by issues including the economy, inflation, federal spending and the deficit, and income and wealth distribution. While many Americans agree on the diagnosis, there’s sharp division on the remedies. Some call for reining in expansive US military commitments abroad and redirecting war spending to focus on investments at home. Others hope to dismantle the billionaire class and promote greater economic justice. Some seek a consolidation of executive power to unleash the authority of the presidency. These are live debates heading into the November midterms, and they cut across party lines. – Europe watches the next American revolution take shape | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Syria
(Diana Rayes – Atlantic Council) The decision to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Syrian asylees was handed down on First Street, Washington, DC, but it will be felt in Damascus, Beirut, Istanbul, Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam, and far beyond. On June 25, the US Supreme Court upheld the Trump administration’s decision to terminate TPS programs for thousands of Syrians and several hundred thousand Haitians living in the US under humanitarian protection. Now, over six thousand Syrian asylees in the United States are forced to face a return to Syria, a homeland that many of them no longer recognize. “It feels like we are being besieged,” one Syrian asylee affected by the decision, who asked not to be named due to the uncertain legal situation, told me. “You cannot get any other visa processed. Everything is in limbo”. Syria continues to be a fragile state with over 15.6 million in need of humanitarian assistance due to decades of authoritarian rule under the Assad regime, compounded by a decade-and-a-half-long conflict, which concluded with dictator Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in December 2024. Syrians living in the US under TPS comprise small fraction of the 12.5 million Syrians estimated to be displaced around the world—over half of Syria’s pre-war population. But the Supreme Court decision carries implications for this wider group, too. It sets a precedent for Syrian asylum-seekers and refugees in other major host countries, including Germany, Austria, France, and Canada, and signals to those governments that similar measures are permissible, despite the fact that Syria is not close to ready for the diaspora to come home. – The US is sending Syrian asylees back. Syria isn’t ready. – Atlantic Council
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