Sources: Council on Foreign Relations; East Asia Forum; RFE/RL; The Jamestown Foundation; The Kyiv Independent; UN News
Anthropic
(Gordon M. Goldstein – Council on Foreign Relations) The ascending artificial intelligence (AI) giant Anthropic is no longer simply a global technology power. Its cutting-edge AI models are increasingly central to U.S. national security. Four recent episodes illustrate this growing reality. In April, Anthropic withheld the release of its model Mythos Preview, which self-created the most powerful cyber weapon in history, capable of finding more than ten thousand software vulnerabilities in computer networks believed to be highly secure. Earlier this month it was reported that the company had embedded half a dozen “forward deployed engineers” with the National Security Agency to conduct offensive AI cyber operations, presumably against China and Iran. Late last Friday afternoon, the Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to cut off access for all foreign nationals to its two most recent “frontier” models, citing undefined national security concerns. The dramatic dispute with the company, now playing out in the press, is yet another twist in Anthropic’s seemingly tortured relationship with the U.S. national security establishment. But arguably the most important development came on June 4, when Anthropic issued a significant report on the pace of the AI race titled, “When AI builds itself: Our progress toward recursive self-improvement, and its implications”. Composed using breezy and sometimes casual prose that obscures its remarkable thesis, the company warned that the next AI breakthrough—perhaps two years away—could create an advanced model so powerful that it evades human control entirely. Anthropic urged its rivals and partners to come together and embark on an unprecedented effort to build a viable multilateral regime of AI arms control. “Recursive self-improvement” is the anodyne term used by computer scientists to describe the next paradigm of AI. When it arrives, AI will have the capability to perfect and propagate itself, creating future iterations of ever more dynamic models that can prioritize their own survival and potentially self-exfiltrate across the Internet to computer networks around the globe. “If it were possible to effectively slow the development of this technology to give ourselves more time to deal with its immense implications, we think that would likely be a good thing,” Anthropic stated in its report. Anthropic is absolutely right to issue a warning. But the company has understated both the risks of the new technology and the extraordinary barriers to controlling what promises to be a revolutionary next paradigm in AI. – Why Anthropic Is Sounding the Alarm on the Next Generation of AI | Council on Foreign Relations
China – Taiwan
(Ying Yu Lin – The Jamestown Foundation) Recent coast guard and maritime patrol operations east of Taiwan are best understood as a test of a “quasi-quarantine” model. Beijing is using gray-zone tactics to create the appearance of administrative control without declaring a blockade or conducting a formal military exercise. The operation demonstrates the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) wish to project maritime jurisdiction beyond the Taiwan Strait and into the Western Pacific. Large vessels from the China Coast Guard (CCG) and other agencies show that Beijing is building an interagency toolkit for gray-zone pressure around Taiwan. Although the PRC frames the operation as a response to Japan–Philippines maritime delimitation talks, Taiwan is the central target. If normalized, these operations could support future isolation, blockade rehearsal, and cognitive warfare against Taiwan. – Quasi-Quarantine Operations Held East of Taiwan – Jamestown
Europe – Russia
(Lucy Pakhnyuk – The Kyiv Independent) European Union leaders agreed on June 18 to extend sanctions against Russia over its war against Ukraine for another 12 months, marking the first time the bloc has renewed the measures for a full year rather than the customary six-month period. The decision was made during a European Council summit in Brussels that began with the participation of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before continuing among EU leaders. Maria Tomasik, spokesperson for the president of the European Council, said EU leaders had approved conclusions on Ukraine and agreed to extend sanctions against Russia for another year. – EU leaders agree to 12-month extension of Russia sanctions
Europe – Ukraine
(Chris Powers – The Kyiv Independent) The conclusions of the meeting of EU leaders on June 18 have been watered down, at the insistence of Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar, to reduce the urgency of advancing Ukraine’s EU accession process. Three days prior, the EU opened the first of six so-called enlargement clusters for Ukraine and Moldova, to-do lists that they must complete to become the union’s member states. It was expected that the remaining five clusters would open in July at the latest. The draft conclusions for the EU leaders’ summit, seen by the Kyiv Independent, read that the European Council “looks forward to the opening of the other clusters as soon as possible, in line with the merits-based approach”. The final conclusions agreed on the evening of June 18 have deleted the wording “as soon as possible.” – Hungarian PM Magyar pushes EU to water down stance on Ukraine accession
Japan – Southeast Asia
(East Asia Forum) Japan’s anti-piracy cooperation in Southeast Asia offers a template for regional order-building based on civilian capacity-building, shared standards and information-sharing rather than military deterrence. Through its civilian institutions like the Japan Coast Guard, Japan strengthens legal and operational cooperation while avoiding overt militarisation. This approach has built trust and influence across ASEAN, but its sustainability is uncertain as Japan’s defence profile expands. – Japan’s maritime strategy quietly reshapes Southeast Asia’s security | East Asia Forum
Lebanon
(UN News) The United Nations has again called for freedom of movement for its peacekeepers in Lebanon who continue to closely monitor developments in the south of the country, including in the wake of the recent provisional agreement signed by the United States and Iran. UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric updated journalists on the activities of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and ongoing humanitarian support to people displaced by hostilities between Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants. He said UNIFIL peacekeepers reported observing 143 trajectories of projectiles on Thursday, with 119 attributed to Israel and the remainder to Hezbollah, and no violations of Lebanese airspace. On Wednesday, they observed 364 projectile launches, with 330 attributed to Israel and 34 to Hezbollah, as well as 38 airspace violations. – UN upholds freedom of movement for peacekeepers in Lebanon | UN News
Libya
(UN News) Libya has been mired in political dysfunction since the collapse of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011, which shattered State institutions and triggered recurring struggles over legitimacy and power. The country’s current stalemate pits the UN-recognised Government of National Unity in the capital Tripoli against eastern-based authorities backed by the House of Representatives and General Haftar’s Libyan National Army – a split that deepened after planned elections in December 2021 were postponed indefinitely. – Libya’s political process regains momentum, but window for action is narrowing, UN envoy warns | UN News
Myanmar
(Licia Proserpio – East Asia Forum) Following the 2021 coup, Myanmar’s higher education system has fractured, with military-controlled universities widely rejected. In response, ethnic education providers and ‘Spring Universities’ have emerged as experimental spaces of resistance, blending education, activism and cross-border collaboration. While these initiatives are growing rapidly, they face limited accreditation and recognition. International support is needed to expand access and legitimacy while avoiding prescriptive external models of Myanmar’s educational future. – Rebuilding Myanmar’s universities from the borderlands in resistance | East Asia Forum
Pakistan – Russia
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) On May 13, Special Assistant to the Pakistani Prime Minister Talha Burki expressed Pakistan’s interest in becoming part of the Russia-backed International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) by linking it with Pakistan’s People’s Republic of China (PRC)-operated Gwadar port. This push occurs as Iran’s Chabahar port faces uncertainty because of unresolved final terms of a peace agreement with the United States. India operates a terminal at Chabahar that acts as its gateway to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Eurasia through routes that bypass Pakistan, which India views as a counterweight to the PRC-operated Gwadar port in Pakistan. By connecting Gwadar to both the PRC-led One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative and the Russia-backed INSTC, Pakistan could position itself as a key crossroads between two of Eurasia’s most prominent connectivity projects. – Moscow and Islamabad Discuss Linking Gwadar Port With INSTC – Jamestown
Russia – Cossacks
(Richard Arnold – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is increasingly leveraging Cossack organizations as instruments of influence, linking Cossack identity to military service, patriotism, and support for the war against Ukraine while expanding their visibility through events such as Victory Day celebrations. Domestically, ties between Cossack groups are most often associated with the Russian Orthodox Church, promoting youth engagement, pastoral programs, and academic initiatives that reinforce militarized patriotism and state-backed interpretations of Cossack heritage. Internationally, Cossack networks across Europe and beyond are growing through cultural events, youth outreach, and embassy-linked activities, providing Moscow with potential channels for influence operations and broader mobilization in support of Russian interests. – Cossacks Continue International and Domestic Resurgence – Jamestown
Russia – North Caucasus
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Alarmed by new data showing that the non-Russian nations of the North Caucasus lag far behind Russians as a whole in identifying as civic Russians, the Kremlin is now working to force North Caucasians to adopt this broader identification and psychology as well. This is part of a greater effort that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime has been pursuing for more than a decade lest the continued vitality of the non-Russian ethnic identities threaten Moscow’s dominance over the country and even Russia’s territorial integrity. This drive is backfiring because it is opposed not only by many non-Russians who see it as a threat to their distinctive existence but also by many ethnic Russians who see it as a threat to theirs and little more than a remake of Soviet identity projects that failed. – Moscow Pushing North Caucasians to Adopt a Common Civic Russian Identity – Jamestown
South Korea
(Sang Yoon Ma – East Asia Forum) South Korea’s middle power diplomacy is shifting from a prestige-driven project within the liberal international order to a more constrained and pragmatic response to geopolitical uncertainty. As US–China rivalry intensifies and US leadership becomes unpredictable, Seoul is hedging — strengthening self-reliance while diversifying partnerships. Yet its deep security and economic dependence on the United States limits its room for manoeuvre, making sustained middle power cooperation difficult to realise beyond selective, interest-based engagement. – South Korea’s middle power diplomacy at an inflection point | East Asia Forum
Sudan
(UN News) The UN’s top human rights official has issued an urgent warning that an imminent offensive against El Obeid, the capital of Sudan’s North Kordofan state, carries the risk of serious international crimes and threatens to deepen an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Volker Türk spoke out on Thursday following reports of a significant build-up of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia and allied troops around the city, accompanied by intensified drone strikes and artillery shelling. Sudan has been engulfed in war since April 2023, when fighting erupted between the formerly allied Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF, plunging one of Africa’s largest countries into a conflict that has become one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies. According to humanitarian affairs office, OCHA, the war has displaced more than 13 million people internally and driven millions more to the brink of famine, with humanitarian access severely constrained across much of the country. – ‘Stop this madness’: Rights chief warns of impending atrocities as militia closes in on El Obeid, Sudan | UN News
Ukraine
(Dmytro Basmat – The Kyiv Independent) Ukraine’s Western allies collectively pledged $4 billion in military aid to Ukraine, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said following the conclusion of the Ramstein-format meeting in Belgium on June 18. The latest defense packages, which were announced throughout the day during the NATO defense ministers’ meeting and Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) gathering, primarily consists of air defense missiles, drones, and artillery. The assistance come as Russia continues large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, prompting Kyiv to press partners for more assistance. – Western allies pledge $4 billion in military aid for Ukraine, Fedorov says following Ramstein summit
US – Iran
(Ray Furlong and Alex Raufoglu – RFE/RL) The Iran framework agreement gave an immediate boost to markets, with shares rising and oil prices dipping. But whether this translates into durable economic gains will largely depend on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. There were signs of traffic beginning to revive on June 18 in the hours immediately after the US and Iranian presidents signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, according to Windward, a maritime intelligence company. Speaking in an online briefing, Windward chief analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann said 18 vessels had transited the strait between 6 p.m. on June 17 and 2 p.m. UTC on June 18, in what she described as “a sign of confidence in the agreement.” – Iran Deal Provides Economic Boost, But Hormuz Shipping Is Key
(UN News) The head of the UN-affiliated atomic energy agency on Thursday welcomed the signing of an initial Iran-US memorandum aimed at ending the war, before proposing “to sit down” with both parties to assist with concrete measures such as verification of Iran’s nuclear programme, a key sticking point. “We believe the fact that the indispensable role of the IAEA is recognized is a sound point of departure,” said Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in reference to the reported text of the memorandum. “Now it’s for us to sit down with our American colleagues, our Iranian colleagues and start formulating the concrete steps that will have to be taken. So, I think it’s good that the memorandum is there. Now the technical work starts”. According to media reports, the memorandum of understanding provides for a maximum of 60 days of negotiations to achieve a “final deal” on issues including uranium enrichment by Iran which must also reaffirm that it does not intend to develop a nuclear weapon. Other requirements listed in the memorandum’s text include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping and an easing of US and UN Security Council sanctions on the Middle East nation. The “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon” also features prominently in the first of 14 points of the memorandum. – US-Iran deal: technical work can begin, says atomic energy agency | UN News
US – United Nations
(UN News) Two United Nations agencies have together welcomed more than $1 billion in assistance from the United States to support their operations targeting millions of children and hungry families in more than 40 countries. This week the US State Department announced a more than $800 million contribution to the World Food Programme (WFP) and a more than $218 million partnership with the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The development comes at a critical time as global hunger reaches record levels, humanitarian needs mount, and resources come under increasing strain. It follows nearly $4 billion in US pledges to UN humanitarian operations in recent months – US makes $1 billion contribution to UN child rights and food agencies | UN News
Vietnam
(Carlyle Thayer – East Asia Forum) To Lam now leads Vietnam on two fronts — as both the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam and state President. Lam’s concurrent leadership is unprecedented in Vietnam, prompting some analysts to draw comparisons with Chinese President Xi Jinping. But the parallel is misleading. Vietnam’s Politburo and Central Committee are far more influential than their Chinese counterparts. Unlike Xi, Vietnam’s collective leadership structure means that Lam cannot rule alone or without strong support across the Communist Party and government. – Vietnam is not China in the making | East Asia Forum
(Hai Hong Nguyen – East Asia Forum) Vietnam is marking 40 years of Doi Moi reforms by pursuing an ambitious development agenda under General Secretary and President To Lam, targeting 10 per cent annual GDP growth through 2030 driven by sweeping political restructuring, major infrastructure investments and a push towards innovation. But these goals face serious headwinds from the ongoing Iran war, domestic capacity shortfalls from bureaucratic reforms and the challenge of building technological self-sufficiency amid intensifying US–China competition. Whether Vietnam can fulfil its vision for prosperity will depend on how well it navigates these domestic and external challenges. – Vietnam’s lofty vision for prosperity amid volatility | East Asia Forum
In collaboration with
