Global think tanks (sources: Atlantic Council; The Jamestown Foundation; The Soufan Center)
G7
(Atlantic Council) The Group of Seven (G7) is returning to where it began. Leaders from the world’s advanced economies are set to convene in Évian-les-Bains, France, from June 15 to 17, as France hosts the G7 in a year marked by geopolitical fragmentation, economic insecurity, and renewed questions about the role of the forum itself. The setting is fitting. In 1975, France hosted the first meeting of what was then the Group of Six, created in the aftermath of oil shocks, inflation, and the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary order. More than fifty years later, many of the same structural anxieties are back in sharper form: energy insecurity, trade tensions, sovereign debt stress, industrial competition, and doubts about whether advanced economies can coordinate in a more divided global economy. France has framed its presidency around restoring the G7’s original purpose as a forum for dialogue among major economic powers and reducing global imbalances. – Seven charts that will define France’s G7 summit – Atlantic Council
NATO
(Atlantic Council) Host Matthew Kroenig is joined by Admiral Pierre Vandier, Supreme Allied Commander of NATO’s Allied Command Transformation (ACT) to discuss how NATO is confronting the changing nature of war and the evolving threats facing the alliance. NATO ACT leads the Alliance’s military adaptation, coordinating efforts across member nations. ACT works to identify challenges and opportunities to ensure that the Alliance maintains a warfighting edge over its adversaries. – So what’s the strategy for NATO’s transformation? – Atlantic Council
Pakistan
(Rahim Nasar – The Jamestown Foundation) Pakistan’s diplomacy during the U.S.–Iran conflict was driven more by a desire to prevent a security vacuum along its roughly 900-kilometer (about 559-mile) border with Iran than by a bid for diplomatic prestige. Islamabad fears that a weakened Iranian state would create operational space for Baloch separatists, sectarian militants, smugglers, and transnational jihadist actors in the country’s southwest. The threat is compounded by Pakistan’s simultaneous pressure from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan (IMP), and Islamic State-Pakistan Province (ISPP)-linked militancy on the Afghan frontier. For Pakistan, sustaining a stable and functional Iranian security apparatus is therefore a strategic counterterrorism priority and not merely a matter of regional diplomacy. – Pakistan’s U.S.–Iran Diplomacy Sought to Prevent a Militant Spillover – Jamestown
War on Iran and beyond
(Javad Heiran-Nia – The Jamestown Foundation) The launch of U.S.–Israeli joint operations against Iran on February 28 has not fundamentally changed Iran’s political structure, but has led to a greater role of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders in decisionmaking centers such as the Supreme National Security Council. Unlike in the past—when the Supreme Leader stood above all institutions and held absolute power—the new Iranian political leadership operates within a decentralized, collective framework in which power is distributed among security institutions, with the IRGC as the most influential. The weakening of the middle class and the marginalization of reformists and moderates set the stage for the IRGC’s increasing dominance, which accelerated dramatically after the beginning of the conflict and the killing of Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. – Iran’s Post-Conflict Political Structure – Jamestown
(Andrew McGregor – The Jamestown Foundation) The launch of the U.S.–Israeli strikes on February 28 devastated Iran’s conventional navy—the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN)—sinking numerous frigates, corvettes, and submarines while docked or at sea. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) remains dangerous, despite heavy losses, due to its decentralized structure and asymmetric warfare tactics. The destruction proved that expensive, conventional fleets are still vulnerable to superior forces, and will likely solidify Iran’s reliance on asymmetric tactics, including land-based missiles, drones, and speedboats. – Assessing the State of Iran’s Naval Infrastructure and Tactics – Jamestown
(Jonathan Panikoff – Atlantic Council) As the US and Iran close in on a memorandum of understanding, the US should maximize its leverage for nuclear talks by maintaining its military footprint and coordinating with European and Gulf allies. European and Middle Eastern allies are increasingly worried about the unpredictability of both the US and Israel, even as they have hardened against Iran. Trump should dedicate his remaining time in office to limiting Iran’s malign influence and reengaging on the Palestinian issue. – It’s not a ‘deal.’ But Trump’s memorandum with Iran can be the start of something bigger. – Atlantic Council
West Bank
(The Soufan Center) Settler violence against Palestinian communities in the West Bank has intensified since the start of the Iran War. While official Israeli statements have condemned certain instances of settler violence, the far-right government has expanded settlements into contested areas, and reports point to no legal persecution of fatal settler violence by Israeli authorities since 2020. Internationally, states have sought to curb settler violence through sanctions on settler leaders and have warned against construction contractors working on illegal settlements. With the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) fighting on multiple fronts, local reserve units consisting of settlers may increasingly be drawn upon in security roles in the West Bank, further exacerbating the problem of violence. – Terror Escalates in the West Bank as Settler Violence Intensifies – The Soufan Center
World Data Organization
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) The World Data Organization (WDO), a new international institution, launched in Beijing in March. Limited information is publicly available regarding its claimed global membership or its institutional design but it is intended to advance the Chinese Communist Party’s global governance agenda. The WDO’s president, Tan Tieniu, is a world-leading expert in surveillance technologies for public security applications. The U.S. government sanctioned him in 2021 for his role in the Hong Kong government. Tan is also deeply involved in the Party’s united front work and has been a delegate to at least four national Party congresses. Articles by Tan and others outline a vision of global data governance that explicitly pushes back on the United States and the West, which Tan accuse of exacerbating “fragmentation and imbalance.”. The WDO is currently seeking to establish itself as a global platform for CCP influence. A United Nations representative delivered remarks at its founding event and its vice president—a former Party Secretary of China Mobile—wants it to work closely with the International Telecommunication Union and the World Intellectual Property Organization. – U.S.-Sanctioned United Front Figure Leads World Data Organization – Jamestown
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