Estonia – US
(Martin Fornusek – The Kyiv Independent) Among Estonians, there is little confidence that U.S. President Donald Trump would rush to defend their country in the event of a Russian invasion. As a 1.3-million-strong NATO member sharing a border with Russia, Estonia would likely be at the forefront of a potential conflict between the alliance and Moscow — a prospect seen as increasingly realistic since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Publicly, Estonian officials have cast a confident note. While Russia remains a long-term threat, the Baltic country remains shielded by NATO’s Article 5 — and therefore by the U.S. military might — while Moscow’s forces are preoccupied in Ukraine, they say. But on the streets of Tallinn, the tension is palpable. – ‘I’m not counting on the US’ — In Estonia, faith in Trump’s defense of Baltics fades
Europe – Ukraine
(AFP/Al Arabiya) German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed making Ukraine an “associate member” of the EU without voting rights, while Kyiv goes through the lengthy process of joining fully, a letter seen by AFP Thursday said. The plan — first floated by Merz with EU counterparts last month — would see Ukraine’s leader attend the bloc’s summit but not be able to cast a vote. – Germany’s Merz pitches making Ukraine EU ‘associate member’
Germany – NATO
(Federal Foreign Office – Germany) Foreign Minister Wadephul issued the following statement today (21 May 2026) prior to his departure for the meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers in Helsingborg and the GLOBSEC Forum in Prague: With the historic decisions from the Hague Summit last year, the NATO allies vigorously renewed their commitment to the transatlantic alliance and prepared the ground for a NATO 3.0. We will now be building on this foundation when we gather in Sweden, the newest NATO member, to prepare for the NATO Summit in Ankara. We want a stronger NATO with a greater role for Europe, we want to secure peace through more robust deterrence, and to this end we want to pool the capacities of our defence industries through more intensive arms cooperation. – Statement by Foreign Minister Wadephul prior to his departure for Helsingborg and Prague – Federal Foreign Office
Russia – Belarus
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) Russia delivered nuclear munitions to field storage facilities in Belarus as part of major nuclear drills, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Thursday. The three-day nuclear exercise, which started on Tuesday and is taking place across Russia and Belarus, comes at a time when Moscow is locked in what it says is an existential struggle with the West over Ukraine. “As part of the nuclear forces exercise, nuclear munitions were delivered to the field storage facilities of the missile brigade’s position area in the Republic of Belarus,” the ministry said. – Russia delivers nuclear munitions in Belarus as part of nuclear drills
Russia – China
(Daryna Antoniuk – The Record) Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin used a summit in Beijing on Wednesday to deepen their “good neighborliness and friendly cooperation,” which, among other initiatives, includes plans to expand collaboration on satellite internet, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and internet governance. In a lengthy joint statement, Moscow and Beijing pledged closer cooperation on satellite internet technologies and joint work on software development and open-source initiatives — part of a broader effort to reduce reliance on Western technology and build a more independent technological ecosystem capable of competing with countries both states consider “unfriendly.”. Moscow and Beijing said they would explore creating joint software development projects and expand cooperation on open-source technologies — a move that could help reduce their dependence on Western software as sanctions and export controls continue to limit access to technology, particularly for Russia. – Xi and Putin pledge closer cooperation on AI, cyberspace and satellite systems | The Record from Recorded Future News
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) The Kremlin on Thursday dismissed as false a Reuters report that China’s army secretly trained about 200 Russian soldiers in China late last year, some of whom went on to fight in Ukraine. A Russian-Chinese agreement from July 2025 reviewed by Reuters said about 200 Russian troops would be trained at military facilities in locations including Beijing and the eastern city of Nanjing. – Kremlin dismisses report that China covertly trained Russian soldiers for Ukraine
US – China – Taiwan
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) Beijing is holding up a proposed visit by the Pentagon’s under-secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby, as China pressures US President Donald Trump over a $14 billion weapons package for Taiwan, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. Colby discussed a summer visit to Beijing with Chinese officials but China has signaled that it cannot approve a visit until Trump decides how he will proceed with the arms package, the report said, citing people familiar with the talks. – Pentagon official’s China visit in doubt over $14 billion arms package for Taiwan: Report
US – Palestine – UN
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) President Donald Trump’s administration threatened to revoke the visas of the Palestinian delegation to the United Nations if the Palestinian ambassador refuses to end his candidacy for the vice presidency of the UN General Assembly, according to an internal State Department cable seen by Reuters. In a cable dated Wednesday, US diplomats in its embassy in Jerusalem are instructed to deliver the message that Palestinian ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour’s general assembly bid “fuels tensions,” risks to undermine Trump’s Gaza peace plan and would therefore face consequences from Washington if it went ahead. “To be clear, we will hold the PA responsible if the Palestinian delegation does not withdraw its VPGA candidacy,” the cable, marked sensitive but unclassified, said, referring to the Palestinian Authority which exercises limited self-rule in the West Bank. – US reportedly pressuring Palestinian UN envoy to drop General Assembly vice presidency bid
War in Iran and surroundings
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) The start of peak summer fuel demand combined with the lack of new oil exports from the Middle East and depleting stocks could push the oil market into the “red zone” in July-August, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Thursday without elaborating. – Oil market could hit ‘red zone’ in July-August, IEA chief says
(Al Arabiya) New details obtained by Al Arabiya shed light on the Israeli presence on Iraqi territory during the recent war with Iran, with informed sources revealing how the Israeli base was discovered by a local shepherd. The sources said that on March 3, a shepherd and his brother headed into the desert to hunt rabbits in the Shanana area, south of al-Nukhaib desert, southwest of Anbar province in western Iraq. – Al Arabiya reveals how Iraqi shepherd exposed secret Israeli base during Iran war
(Al Arabiya) As negotiations with the United States hang in the balance, a hard-line Iranian general linked to notorious attacks at home and abroad over the past decades is believed to have seized a place near the center of power. Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, who heads Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has become a major player in formulating Tehran’s tough stance in negotiating a possible end to the war with the United States, experts say. He is believed to be part of a small clique in direct contact with Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who remains in hiding after being reportedly wounded in the Feb. 28 Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei. – IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi emerges as key power broker as Iran-US talks hang in balance
(Reuters) Iran’s supreme leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening Tehran’s stance on one of the main US demands at peace talks. Mojtaba Khamenei’s order could further frustrate US President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. Israeli officials have told Reuters that Trump has assured Israel that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he will not consider the war over until enriched uranium is removed from Iran, Tehran ends its support for proxy militias, and its ballistic missile capabilities are eliminated. – Supreme leader says enriched uranium must stay in Iran, Iranian sources say
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) Iran said on Thursday it was reviewing Washington’s latest position on ending the war after US President Donald Trump suggested he was prepared to wait a few days to “get the right answers” from Tehran but warned of renewed attacks if it did not agree to a deal. “We have received US views and are reviewing them,” Iranian state-run agency Nour News quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying. Pakistan, which hosted peace talks last month and is acting as the conduit for messages between the two sides, continues to mediate between Tehran and Washington, he added, with several rounds of communication having taken place. Pakistan’s interior minister was in Tehran on Wednesday. – Tehran reviewing latest US response as Trump suggests he can wait
(Al Arabiya) Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, CNN reported on Thursday, citing two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments. US intelligence indicated that Iran’s military is rebuilding much faster than initially estimated, the report added, citing four sources. – Iran has restarted some of its drone production during ceasefire: Report
(AFP/Al Arabiya) Iran on Thursday hanged two men convicted of armed rebellion and membership in “separatist terrorist groups,” the latest in a string of executions during the Middle East war. Since the start of the conflict with Israel and the United States in February, Iran has ramped up executions, with many of the convicts hanged over anti-government protests that took place across Iran early this year. – Iran hangs two men for armed rebellion, links to ‘separatists’
War in Ukraine
(Reuters/Al Arabiya) Three people were killed when a locomotive was struck by a Ukrainian drone in Russia’s Bryansk region on Thursday, state company Russian Railways said. All three victims were Russian Railways employees and were hit at a railway station in the town of Unecha. – Three dead in attack on locomotive in Russia’s Bryansk region, railway says
(AFP/Al Arabiya) Ukraine is ramping up security measures in its regions bordering Belarus, Kyiv said on Thursday, after weeks of warning of a possible fresh attack from Russia’s chief regional ally. Kyiv has sounded the alarm that Russia may use Belarus – a springboard for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine – to stage a new offensive from the north, including towards the capital. – Ukraine boosts border security with Belarus over attack fears
Cybersecurity & Surveillance
(Alexander Martin – The Record) The British government’s plans to overhaul the country’s main cybercrime law would offer such narrow legal protections that most security researchers would be left in the same position as today, multiple sources briefed on the proposals have told Recorded Future News. Plans to amend the Computer Misuse Act 1990 were announced in the King’s Speech last week following years of campaigning by industry to modernize a law they criticized for prohibiting ordinary cybersecurity activities. Last December, Security Minister Dan Jarvis pledged the government would introduce a statutory defense — a formal legal protection written into law — protecting researchers from conviction in court, “as long as they meet certain safeguards.” But sources briefed on the plans, which have not previously been reported, say those safeguards are extremely limited. – UK plans for cybercrime law reform would protect almost no one, experts warn | The Record from Recorded Future News
(Daryna Antoniuk – The Record) European law enforcement agencies have dismantled a VPN service long favored by cybercriminals to conceal ransomware attacks, fraud schemes and other illicit activities. The international operation, led by France and the Netherlands and carried out May 19-20, targeted a service known as First VPN, which had been marketed for years on Russian-speaking cybercrime forums as a secure way for criminals to evade law enforcement. Authorities in Ukraine questioned the service’s administrator at the request of French investigators and conducted a house search as part of the coordinated operation. Law enforcement agencies also dismantled 33 servers linked to the platform. – Europe dismantles VPN service used by cybercriminals to hide ransomware attacks | The Record from Recorded Future News
Defense
(Cem Devrim Yaylali – Defense News) Turkey is moving to buy 100 expendable unmanned surface vessels for its navy, Defense News learned during the SAHA Expo 2026 defense exhibition this month. The decision to procure the systems was made during the February meeting of the Defense Industry Executive Committee, the highest decision-making body in Turkey’s defense procurement and industrial policy. – Turkey to buy 100 one-way explosive naval drones for swarm attacks
(Katie Livingstone – Defense News) Senior White House officials publicly placed Ukraine’s military ahead of allied counterparts in Europe across four venues last week, and in some respects ranked Kyiv ahead of the United States itself, even as U.S. President Donald Trump has continued to dismiss Ukraine’s military strength. The Ukrainian armed forces are “the strongest, most powerful armed forces in all of Europe,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week, citing a five-to-one Russian-to-Ukrainian casualty rate and four years of battlefield adaptation. – Trump says Ukraine lacks leverage. His own officials say otherwise.
(Linus Höller – Defense News) Germany’s defense minister used a rare four-nation gathering of German-speaking defense chiefs this week to push forward plans for a European military space command, calling on close partners including Austria, Switzerland and Luxembourg, to help shape the initiative rather than simply join it. Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, announced at a press conference in Berlin that Germany is developing a European Space Component Command alongside a Weltraumakademie − a multilateral space training academy − and insisted that partner nations will be “embedded in the design phase” rather than presented with finished structures. – Germany touts pan-German space command amid European push to supplant US tech
(Maria Curi – Axios) Palantir is battling the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency for the ability to bid for a contract to modernize its data analytics system, according to a filing obtained by Axios. Palantir’s already massive foothold at the Pentagon could eventually expand to an agency tasked with providing foreign military intelligence to prevent and win wars. Palantir argues in its protest that the DIA is wasting taxpayer money, and flouting the law, by refusing to consider a commercial solution for its data analytics modernization efforts. – Palantir fights Pentagon over key intelligence contract
