Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling. On August 1, Trump announced in a social media post that he was ordering two U.S. nuclear submarines “to be positioned in the appropriate regions” in response to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s “inflammatory statements.” Medvedev had taken to X in the preceding weeks to mock U.S. “ultimatums” for Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Days later, on August 4, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced it “no longer considers itself bound” by the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Moscow announced it would suspend participation in the treaty in 2019 after the U.S. withdrawal but claimed to continue to observe a unilateral moratorium. Hours after the announcement, Medvedev posted on X, “This is a new reality all our opponents will have to reckon with. Expect further steps.” How seriously should we take these online barbs, and what do Trump’s announcement about submarine deployments and Russia’s breakout from the INF Treaty mean for risks of escalation?
What Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really Mean
