Russia will seek to exploit the US capture of Nicolás Maduro to its advantage. The operation, carried out in clear violation of international law and the UN Charter, has contributed to the further erosion of the rules-based order and prompted anti-American sentiment. Moscow will seek to capitalize on this while advancing its narrative of Western neo-colonialism with greater confidence. However, in a world increasingly shaped by Trump, and with its core objectives in Ukraine still unachieved, Moscow may ultimately have to seek accommodation rather than confrontation with the US. Ironically, Russia’s long-sought shift towards multipolar competition may end up constraining rather than enabling its ambitions. Russia’s response to the US operation in Venezuela has been restrained. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged the US to reconsider its position and release ‘the legitimately elected leader of a sovereign country and his spouse’. He subsequently held a phone call with Venezuela’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, reiterating Russia’s support for Caracas and urging de-escalation through dialogue. Yet Moscow’s response has remained within its standard diplomatic playbook. Most notably, the presidential administration has remained silent, issuing no statements to date despite the close personal and political relationship between Vladimir Putin and Maduro.
Venezuela shows Russia has lost the initiative in Trump’s global order (Natalie Sabanadze – Chatham House)
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