The US appears to have secured a stake in future revenues from Ukraine’s mineral resources, with an agreement between the two countries expected to be signed imminently. After details have been finalised, Ukraine could provide 50% of future revenues from its natural resources into a jointly managed US–Ukraine fund, according to the agreement published this week. Both parties will see strategic benefits from the arrangement. Ukraine may see a hastened development of its minerals industry, while the US will ensure that China does not become a mineral beneficiary of any Russo-Ukrainian peace deal. A future Ukraine that is integrated into Western rather than Chinese supply chains has a high strategic value to Western thinkers. Indeed, one Republican insider from Trump’s first term argues that securing resources simply to prevent China gaining control of them, regardless of whether the resource is ultimately developed, may be part of the US administration’s strategy. Negotiation of the agreement has been fraught, with reports of aggressive tactics from multiple teams with unclear mandates pushing sometimes outrageous demands.
Unlocking Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth Requires More Than a Trump Deal | Royal United Services Institute
