For the best part of two decades, Europe and NATO have underestimated Russia and its motivation to dominate the Black Sea region. Understanding the patterns of consistency and adaptation in Moscow’s Black Sea posture is essential for anticipating the country’s future strategic behaviour. Russia’s continued use of hybrid and full-scale warfare in the Black Sea, if successful, would have devastating repercussions for the wider region.
Central to Black Sea security is ensuring that Ukraine retains control of Odesa and its adjacent coastline. Any ceasefire or future peace agreement must include provisions for long-term deterrence against renewed Russian efforts to sever Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Such a move would not only undermine Ukraine’s economic viability but also diminish its broader strategic relevance.
Ankara’s adherence to the Montreux Convention, which prevents military vessels from entering the Black Sea region during wartime, has had a significant impact on Russia’s ambitions. Consequently, Turkey will continue to be a pivotal actor in the Black Sea and a vital partner for the West, due to the country’s control of the Turkish Straits, its possession of the longest coastline in the region and its significant geopolitical weight.
Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
