Russia is the world’s most sanctioned country, but the current regime of sanctions has largely failed to achieve its aim of constraining Russia’s ability to wage war. Following the Alaska meeting between US president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin in August 2025, there are questions around the future of sanctions imposed on Russia. But, as fighting continues in Ukraine, the need to increase the pressure on the Kremlin is greater than ever. This research paper argues that Russia’s oil export revenues are its weak point and that sanctions are failing to target them sufficiently. Although oil rents are equivalent to just 10 per cent of Russian GDP, cutting them off would hinder Putin’s ability to maintain his power structure. Ukraine’s allies can target this vulnerability by tightening the existing oil-price cap mechanism, which in principle limits the export price of Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel. The paper’s recommendations include imposing an automatic, gradual reduction of the cap in response to Russian attacks on Ukraine, closing loopholes in the shipping industry that Russia has exploited via its ‘shadow fleet’, and implementing more robust enforcement. The powers behind the sanctions – including the US, EU and UK – can use their geography and prominence in the fields of maritime regulation and insurance to impose standards and prohibitions more widely. As the paper points out, European countries in particular have the power to enforce a modified oil-price cap rigorously, even without US support or compliance from Russia’s partners, owing to their dominance of the marine reinsurance industry and their effective control of the Baltic Sea straits, through which 60 per cent of Russia’s seaborne oil exports travel.
Tightening the oil-price cap to increase the pressure on Russia (Volodymyr Dubrovskiy, James Nixey – Chatham House)
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