The United States has a long history of leveraging economic power and restrictive economic measures to advance its national security objectives. It also has a history of offering sanctions relief as a bargaining tool in negotiations to achieve its desired end states. Sanctions and the economic pain they inflict can effectively bring an adversary to the negotiating table, and sanctions relief can often get the adversary to agree to a deal. After three years of increasingly restrictive sanctions targeting Russia over its unlawful invasion of Ukraine, Russia is feeling the pain. Its economic growth is minimal, and it has retracted into a “wartime economy” that is driven by military spending and government support. Annual inflation remains high, holding at 10 percent as of February. For comparison, a healthy inflation rate is generally between 2 percent and 3 percent per year. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation held interest rates at an all-time-high 21 percent in February. Russia is having trouble selling its oil as a result of sanctions and the expiration of General License 8L earlier this month, which makes it even more difficult to buy Russian oil without risking exposure to secondary sanctions. The sanctions are working, and Russia’s economy is in a downturn. Moreover, despite Russian success in driving Ukrainian forces out of most of Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine is holding off Russian advances and inflicting serious casualties. In short, the United States, its Group of Seven (G7) partners, and Ukraine have the upper hand in negotiations to end the war. They should use it. As the Trump administration pursues a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump must determine which US sanctions should be eased or lifted and when that sanctions relief should come as part of a negotiated peace settlement. To ensure Trump can negotiate peace from a position of strength and to hold Putin accountable to his end of the deal, we offer the following do’s and don’ts of lifting US sanctions on Russia.
There’s a right way to lift sanctions on Russia. Follow these Dos and Don’ts. – Atlantic Council
