Between April and May 2025, the United States and Iran engaged in five rounds of nuclear negotiations, with a sixth round scheduled in mid-June. Two days before that round was set to begin, on June 13, Israel attacked Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure and personnel, among other targets, with American assistance. Nine days later, the United States directly intervened in what became known as the Twelve-Day War by bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. Throughout the war, Tehran retaliated by striking Israeli military and civilian sites with drones and missiles. On June 24, Washington brokered a ceasefire after Tehran launched missiles at an American air base in Qatar. In Iran, the Israeli attacks killed several nuclear scientists and senior military commanders. They also killed 1,190 people, injured 4,475 of them, and displaced tens of thousands more. In Israel, Iranian drones and missiles struck military and civilian sites, despite the country’s advanced air defenses. They also killed at least 28 people, wounded over 3,000 of them, and displaced many more. This article seeks to illuminate how and why the United States and Iran engaged in an indirect and direct military confrontation while pursuing nuclear diplomacy. It argues that the following four factors created challenges for the negotiations and contributed to the conflict: the vicious cycle of American coercion and Iranian confrontation escalated tensions and eroded trust between both sides during the negotiations; Washington’s preference for direct and comprehensive talks and Tehran’s proclivity for indirect and interim ones were at odds; Washington maintained a maximalist approach to Iranian enrichment levels and uranium stockpiles throughout the talks; Israeli officials and U.S. lawmakers influenced and interfered in the negotiations. If the United States and Iran decide to resume the talks, they will have to address these four factors to achieve a diplomatic deal and avoid another war.
The United States and Iran Must Overcome Four Challenges for Nuclear Talks to Succeed (Eric Lob – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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