As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate through proxy wars, cyberattacks, and strategic assassinations, with the most recent being direct military attacks, much of the focus has been on the regional balance of power. One should look at Iran’s domestic affairs, particularly the recent escalations that risk bringing about serious consequences. In the 1980s, war helped to unify the conflicting political environment in Iran after the 1979 revolution. Today, it unfolds in a vastly different Iran, one shaped by political fatigue, fractured ideology, generational disillusionment, and a society caught between loyalty, silence, and dissent. The leadership may seek to revive the mobilising frameworks of the past. However, the conditions of the present suggest that external conflict could deepen internal tensions rather than restore cohesion in the long run, particularly following the 12-day Israeli war.
The Future Trajectory of Power in Iran (Kamyar Kayvanfar – Observer Research Foundation)
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