After five rounds of negotiations to date, the United States and Iran have yet to reach a new agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, though reportedly the two sides have made some limited progress and plan to meet again. Most of the Middle East is looking at the prospects for a US-Iran deal with cautious optimism, viewing a bilateral modus vivendi as preferable to increased tensions and the possibility of military strikes on targets inside Iran. But while success in the talks promises to bring greater stability to a region too often beset by conflict, near-term progress in a renewed nuclear agreement may have negative collateral consequences in the energy sphere. Namely, a deal struck between Washington and Tehran could add further downward pressure to an already delicate oil market, potentially heralding more fiscal pain for Gulf oil producers and complicating US energy strategy.
The downside oil market risks of a new Iran deal | Middle East Institute
