The May 6 cease-fire between the United States and the Tehran-supported Houthi militia in Yemen has had a consolidating effect on the balance of power inside the war-torn state and hardened the status quo of the country’s civil war. In turn, the outcome of Israel and Iran’s subsequent 12-day war has the potential to temporarily shake up this status quo once again; but Yemen’s fracturing anti-Houthi coalition is unlikely to be able to exploit that opportunity. Last month’s halt in the high-intensity US air campaign against the Houthis, codenamed Operation Rough Rider, has played into the group’s hands, buying it time to repair infrastructure damage and reorganize its forces. In contrast, that cessation of US-Houthi hostilities may have negative consequences for the internationally recognized Yemeni government. Even more significantly, the post-cease-fire situation undermines the pro-secessionist and Emirati-backed — but formally unified with the central government — Southern Transitional Council (STC), whose forces would be the most capable of fielding a ground offensive against the Houthis, as demonstrated in the past. The STC is not only experiencing rising popular discontent in Aden and other large southern cities due to worsening economic conditions but is also seeing its influence challenged by Saudi-backed factions in the strategic Hadramout Governorate. In terms of the security and maritime interests of the US, the consolidation of the status quo effected by the cease-fire represents a far from satisfactory scenario for Washington. While largely favorable to the Houthis — at least in the first month since May 6 — the situation has indirectly supported splits between several competing power centers in Yemen, to the detriment of a cohesive front that would have the ability to hold back, or even to significantly degrade, the ongoing threat posed by the Tehran-aligned group. The Israel-Iran war, which concluded in a fragile cease-fire on June 23, could briefly have the opposite net effect: the Houthis are likely to see a reduction in weapons provisions and other material assistance from Iran, forcing them to search for alternatives. This weakening could provide a short window of opportunity for anti-Houthi Yemeni forces to try to regain some territories from the militant group. But the timing could not be worse, given the current fragmentation of the anti-Houthi camp; and any such ground assault would be contingent on air support provided by external partners, which does not appear forthcoming.
The balance of power in Yemen after the US-Houthi cease-fire | Middle East Institute
