As humanity approaches the technological capacity to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI), the race between leading artificial intelligence (AI) powers—particularly the United States and China—is likely to intensify amid broader U.S.-China strategic competition. Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania and the RAND Geopolitics of AGI Initiative commissioned papers by experts in AI, international relations, and national security to examine the dynamics of the AGI race and its potential implications for international security and stability. The authors contend with whether the greatest risks stem from the ambiguous pre-AGI period or from the rapid, competitive race itself and whether AGI will fundamentally alter the nuclear balance or primarily democratize destructive capabilities. Other authors argue that traditional arms control is ill-suited for AGI, proposing instead novel governance models, such as an “AI cartel” to distinguish military from civilian applications. Collectively, the papers highlight strategic dilemmas—speed versus caution, perception versus reality, and competition versus collusion—that demand deliberate choices to ensure that AGI advances international security rather than undermines it.
The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security | RAND
